In addition to all mentioned above Dakotas (especially North) were hotbeds of conservatively-tinged populism and isolationism most of their history. An ideal combination for Trump, who is not even so conservative (look Cruz for comparison).
- Obama gained nineteen percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Kerry in 2004
- Bush gained 21 percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Dole in 1996
- Dukakis gained eighteen percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Mondale in 1984
- Reagan gained 32 percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Ford in 1976
- Eisenhower gained 34 percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Dewey in 1948
- FDR gained 60 percent in vote in ND in 1932 vis-à-vis Davis in 1924
- Harding gained 60 percentage points in ND vis-à-vis Hughes in 1916
- Bush gained nineteen percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Dole in 1996
- Dukakis gained twenty percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Mondale in 1984
- Reagan gained 27 percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Ford in 1976
- Eisenhower gained 34 percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Dewey in 1948
- FDR gained 50 percent in vote in SD in 1932 vis-à-vis Davis in 1924
- Harding gained 38 percentage points in SD vis-à-vis Hughes in 1916
- Theodore Roosevelt gained 50 percentage points in SD in 1904 vis-à-vis McKinley in 1896
Thus, with Trump’s appeal to a rural, white electorate it’s not surprising that these states – which Obama, Clinton and Carter came fairly close to carrying – turned sharply Republican, especially as part of the core Democratic vote among Native Americans did not remain loyal.
This seems to imply that ND and SD swing in the direction of the national swing, but swing even stronger in that direction.
