Trump's German harvest
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Author Topic: Trump's German harvest  (Read 1565 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 10, 2016, 11:59:11 PM »

It's as if a whole region ended up as "Trump's home state":



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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2016, 12:03:03 AM »

You know who ELSE came to power by harnessing the frustration of German people?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2016, 12:09:05 AM »

This is not the whole story though: Trump also improved significantly in areas with Nativist American ancestry (those who say they have "American ancestry", most common in WV/KY/TN and AR):

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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2016, 12:26:12 AM »
« Edited: November 11, 2016, 12:30:26 AM by Meclazine »

Strangely, you might be on to something:

Density of Natives of Germany: , 1900 map



The only other map which shows any correlation with swing states is the geological province map.



But the German map from 1900's is much better, in fact almost one to one.

Uncanny.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2016, 02:56:37 AM »

You know who ELSE came to power by harnessing the frustration of German people?

Otto Von Bismarck and Kaiser Wilhelm I? They used Pan-Germanic thought to turn a middle-tier great power into one of the three greatest powers on Earth, with a superb military and a roaring economy. This is actually good comparison for a Red Avatar to make, thanks!
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2016, 07:18:50 AM »

You know who ELSE came to power by harnessing the frustration of German people?

Otto Von Bismarck and Kaiser Wilhelm I? They used Pan-Germanic thought to turn a middle-tier great power into one of the three greatest powers on Earth, with a superb military and a roaring economy. This is actually good comparison for a Red Avatar to make, thanks!
Russian hegemony is not a "balance of power".
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2016, 07:43:38 AM »

This is terrible and lazy psephology, sorry. These people are not in any meaningful sense German and don't see themselves in such terms (and neither did their parents and in many cases not even their grandparents). They're just ordinary white Americans who remembered for the census that their great grandfather was Müller rather than Miller. And really when you look closely the swing correlation is not particularly great...
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GMantis
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2016, 11:26:08 AM »

You know who ELSE came to power by harnessing the frustration of German people?

Otto Von Bismarck and Kaiser Wilhelm I? They used Pan-Germanic thought to turn a middle-tier great power into one of the three greatest powers on Earth, with a superb military and a roaring economy. This is actually good comparison for a Red Avatar to make, thanks!
Russian hegemony is not a "balance of power".
What Russian hegemony?
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2016, 11:36:59 AM »

You know who ELSE came to power by harnessing the frustration of German people?

Someone not relevant.
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sparkey
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2016, 12:30:06 PM »

BuzzFeed actually polled by ancestry, and German-Americans were super Trump supporters: https://www.buzzfeed.com/peteraldhous/trump-and-the-white-vote?utm_term=.hqBya6yjy#.so5ZyVZoZ

They have:

German: 33% Clinton, 51% Trump (Trump +18)
American: 33% Clinton, 50% Trump (Trump +17)
Italian: 33% Clinton, 44% Trump (Trump +11)
English: 37% Clinton, 43% Trump (Trump +6)
Irish: 39% Clinton, 40% Trump (Trump +1)

I also went through their raw data earlier and got this for the less-polled ancestries:
Swedish: Clinton 33%, Trump 48% (Trump +15) n=39
Polish: Clinton 35%, Trump 44% (Trump +9) n=125
Dutch: Clinton 34%, Trump 41% (Trump +7) n=41
French: Clinton 35%, Trump 35% (even) n=71
Norwegian: Clinton 37%, Trump 37% (even) n=49
Scottish: Clinton 41%, Trump 38% (Clinton +3) n=107

They also allowed volunteered responses, here are some of the more notable ones:

Danish: Clinton 45%, Trump 27% (Clinton +18) n=11
Greek: Clinton 47%, Trump 12% (Clinton +35) n=17
Russian: Clinton 67%, Trump 29% (Clinton +38) n=21
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2016, 12:32:39 PM »

You know who ELSE came to power by harnessing the frustration of German people?
Angela Merkel?
Gerhard Schröder?
Willy Brandt?
Konrad Adenauer?
Paul von Hindenburg?
Franz von Papen?
Karl Doenitz?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2016, 02:18:42 PM »

BuzzFeed actually polled by ancestry, and German-Americans were super Trump supporters: https://www.buzzfeed.com/peteraldhous/trump-and-the-white-vote?utm_term=.hqBya6yjy#.so5ZyVZoZ

They have:

German: 33% Clinton, 51% Trump (Trump +18)
American: 33% Clinton, 50% Trump (Trump +17)
Italian: 33% Clinton, 44% Trump (Trump +11)
English: 37% Clinton, 43% Trump (Trump +6)
Irish: 39% Clinton, 40% Trump (Trump +1)

I also went through their raw data earlier and got this for the less-polled ancestries:
Swedish: Clinton 33%, Trump 48% (Trump +15) n=39
Polish: Clinton 35%, Trump 44% (Trump +9) n=125
Dutch: Clinton 34%, Trump 41% (Trump +7) n=41
French: Clinton 35%, Trump 35% (even) n=71
Norwegian: Clinton 37%, Trump 37% (even) n=49
Scottish: Clinton 41%, Trump 38% (Clinton +3) n=107

They also allowed volunteered responses, here are some of the more notable ones:

Danish: Clinton 45%, Trump 27% (Clinton +18) n=11
Greek: Clinton 47%, Trump 12% (Clinton +35) n=17
Russian: Clinton 67%, Trump 29% (Clinton +38) n=21

Great find, thx.

I think there was no subsample for Austrian ancestry (there are only 1 million Americans with Austrian ancestry).

But I guess they would not vote that different than the Germans.

PS: Most Austrians who migrated to the US settled in Wisconsin btw. It is the state with the highest Austrian ancestry.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2016, 02:58:38 PM »

Swedish: Clinton 33%, Trump 48% (Trump +15) n=39

Smiley  And Swedes are very shy and conformist, so probably it is more like Trump +45
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Rules for me, but not for thee
Dabeav
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2016, 03:33:26 PM »

Ironically it doesn't really look like the Texas Germans really came out for Trump.
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sparkey
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« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2016, 04:31:41 PM »

Great find, thx.

I think there was no subsample for Austrian ancestry (there are only 1 million Americans with Austrian ancestry).

But I guess they would not vote that different than the Germans.

PS: Most Austrians who migrated to the US settled in Wisconsin btw. It is the state with the highest Austrian ancestry.

BuzzFeed allowed volunteered responses, and 5 people gave "Austrian." 3 were from New York, 1 from Massachusetts, and 1 from California. They all said Clinton, interestingly.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2016, 06:10:11 PM »

BuzzFeed actually polled by ancestry, and German-Americans were super Trump supporters: https://www.buzzfeed.com/peteraldhous/trump-and-the-white-vote?utm_term=.hqBya6yjy#.so5ZyVZoZ

They have:

German: 33% Clinton, 51% Trump (Trump +18)
American: 33% Clinton, 50% Trump (Trump +17)
Italian: 33% Clinton, 44% Trump (Trump +11)
English: 37% Clinton, 43% Trump (Trump +6)
Irish: 39% Clinton, 40% Trump (Trump +1)

I also went through their raw data earlier and got this for the less-polled ancestries:
Swedish: Clinton 33%, Trump 48% (Trump +15) n=39
Polish: Clinton 35%, Trump 44% (Trump +9) n=125
Dutch: Clinton 34%, Trump 41% (Trump +7) n=41
French: Clinton 35%, Trump 35% (even) n=71
Norwegian: Clinton 37%, Trump 37% (even) n=49
Scottish: Clinton 41%, Trump 38% (Clinton +3) n=107

They also allowed volunteered responses, here are some of the more notable ones:

Danish: Clinton 45%, Trump 27% (Clinton +18) n=11
Greek: Clinton 47%, Trump 12% (Clinton +35) n=17
Russian: Clinton 67%, Trump 29% (Clinton +38) n=21

Great find, thx.

I think there was no subsample for Austrian ancestry (there are only 1 million Americans with Austrian ancestry).

But I guess they would not vote that different than the Germans.

PS: Most Austrians who migrated to the US settled in Wisconsin btw. It is the state with the highest Austrian ancestry.
I live near a highway 'adopted' by the Austrian-American society -- or some org named like that. 

I like the thread, but I did lay this and more out like 6 years ago.  I'll look for the threads when I have time...  It's even in my name "American Nation"  based on the book American NationS by colin woodard.  You take into account ancestry as well as the history of settlement and a few other factors and you can see "fault lines" others are oblivious too. 
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rob in cal
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« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2016, 06:13:48 PM »

  The huge Russian spread for Clinton probably due to the big amount of Jews in that group.  Would like to see difference between German ancestry by Protestant vs Catholic.
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Person Man
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« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2016, 06:22:08 PM »

  The huge Russian spread for Clinton probably due to the big amount of Jews in that group.  Would like to see difference between German ancestry by Protestant vs Catholic.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2016, 06:28:00 PM »

  The huge Russian spread for Clinton probably due to the big amount of Jews in that group.  Would like to see difference between German ancestry by Protestant vs Catholic.
Just my guess is that Catholic is closer to 50/50 and Protestant 65/30 ish.  That has a lot to do where they live urban / rural, blue collar / union household etc etc.

Germans from Russia used to be mistakenly counted as "Russian" because that was the country they 'came' from last.  It made some weird ethnicity maps with data from early 1900's.  

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2016, 06:38:46 PM »

Sorry but what planet do you people live on? I'm at a total loss right now.
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sparkey
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« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2016, 07:23:57 PM »

  The huge Russian spread for Clinton probably due to the big amount of Jews in that group.  Would like to see difference between German ancestry by Protestant vs Catholic.

Good insight on the Russian-Americans. Here's their religious breakdown:
Jewish: 14
Atheist: 2
Nothing in particular: 2
Muslim: 1
Protestant: 1
Something else: 1
Orthodox: 0

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sparkey
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« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2016, 07:36:42 PM »

  The huge Russian spread for Clinton probably due to the big amount of Jews in that group.  Would like to see difference between German ancestry by Protestant vs Catholic.

From BuzzFeed raw data:

German-American Protestants: 28% Clinton, 55% Trump (Trump +27) n=179
German-American Catholics: 34% Clinton, 54% Trump (Trump +20) n=82
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #22 on: November 11, 2016, 09:55:43 PM »

Russian hegemony is not a "balance of power".

Bismarck utilized the Three Emperor's League to forge a new power structure in Europe, then allowed it to dissolve. This renewed the decaying setup of the Vienna Congress, and prevented general war for another half century. So what exactly are your arguing?
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #23 on: November 11, 2016, 10:03:51 PM »

Russian hegemony is not a "balance of power".

Bismarck utilized the Three Emperor's League to forge a new power structure in Europe, then allowed it to dissolve. This renewed the decaying setup of the Vienna Congress, and prevented general war for another half century. So what exactly are your arguing?
Trump is no Bismarck.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #24 on: November 12, 2016, 12:34:00 AM »


Okay, Mr. Lloyd Bentsen.
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