"Bad Luck" Seats

[PAK Man]

Kind of a weird way of describing them, but what would you say some seats are that have caused bad luck for one party or another?

Florida's Class 1 Senate Seat - Easily my pick for Republicans. They've been trying to regain this seat ever since Bill Nelson won in 2000. In 2006, he faced Katherine Clark, who he easily defeated. And in 2012, Republicans touted Connie Mack IV as the one who would finally defeat him, yet Nelson easily prevailed.

Florida's Class 3 Senate Seat - The opposite problem for Democrats. Ever since Bob Graham retired in 2004, Democrats haven't been able to take this seat back. I get the feeling Patrick Murphy might have performed better had Rubio not been on the ticket, but that's hard to say.

Colorado's 6th District - I don't know what it is, but Democrats just can't flip this seat, even though it leans Democratic. Coffman came close to losing in 2012 against a weak opponent, but he easily dispatched well-known Democrats in 2014 and 2016.

Wisconsin's Class 1 Senate Seat - I think Larry Sabato pointed this out in 2012, but this seat has been held by Democrats since 1957. The last Republican to hold it was the infamous Joseph McCarthy. Sabato believes that his presence cursed the seat, as even much-touted Republicans like Tommy Thompson haven't been able to pick it up.

Arizona's 1st District - It leans Republican, but the GOP has had trouble finding strong candidates for this seat. Ann Kirkpatrick won it in 2012, then won by an even wider margin in 2014, despite the GOP wave. Then this year, Republicans all but gave up on the open seat after Paul Babeu, who they did not want to win the primary, won it, and Tom O'Halleran held it for Democrats.

Iowa's 2nd District - On paper, this district should be competitive. In fact, it should probably be more competitive than the 1st District. And Dave Loebsack was a complete fluke winner during the 2006 Democratic wave, defeating a 30+ year incumbent. And yet he always manages to hold on, even when he's seriously challenged. It's especially fascinating when you think about how boring he is and that he hasn't really done anything to stand out. Then again, maybe that's why he's held on.

What are some other seats that should be competitive and always seem to be seriously challenged, but one party has bad luck in taking over?

[MT Treasurer]

North Carolina's Class 3 Senate Seat - Burr broke the curse in 2010.

[Figueira]

North Dakota's Class 1 Senate seat for the Republicans. It's been Democratic since 1960. Actually all of Class 1 might qualify for them, in the last few cycles.

For the Democrats...maybe Ohio Class 3?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Aside from when Arlen Specter switched parties, Pennsylvania's Class 3 Senate seat has been Republican since 1968.

[Kingpoleon]

Steve King should be defeatable...

[Heisenberg]

Steve King should be defeatable...

On paper he looks to be in big trouble. But he's VERY popular in his district, I swear someone posted an article here on why he never goes down. I'll have to dig it up.
Kingpoleon, you also reminded me of another "King" of locking down a seemingly-competitive district: Peter King, who, on paper, also looks vulnerable, but always does pretty well.

[Heisenberg]

"Bad Luck" Senate Seats
Democrats:
Nevada Class 1
Maine Class 2
Pennsylvania Class 3
Florida Class 3
Ohio Class 3

Republicans:
Florida Class 1
Wisconsin Class 1
Montana Class 2 (Until 2014)
Nevada Class 3
Nebraska Class 1 (Until 2012)

Those Florida seats are interesting. Funny how from 1989-2001, the GOP held Seat 1 and Democrats held Seat 3; since 2005, it has been the reverse. Democrats flop on candidates for the Rubio Seat (the FL Dems are incompetent, of course), and despite being pretty well-run, the GOP always fumbles with candidates against Nelson: Harris was key in the recount controversy of 2000, and Mack IV ended up having tons of personal and ethical issues.

[Crumpets]

WA-8 for Democrats.

[LLR]

Semi-related, but Al Franken's seat has been held by a Jew since 1978, save for the two months that Dean Barkley held it. That's four different people, by the way.

[PAK Man]

I would definitely agree that the entire class one group of senators has been bad luck for Republicans, especially since 2000. Starting in that cycle, Democrats have gained seats every time this group has been up for reelection.

2000 - Delaware (Carper defeated incumbent Roth), Florida (Nelson won open seat), Michigan (Stabenow defeated incumbent Abraham), Minnesota (Dayton defeated incumbent Grams), Missouri (The late Carnahan defeated incumbent Ashcroft), Washington (Cantwell defeated incumbent Gorton).

2006 - Missouri (McCaskill defeated incumbent Talent), Montana (Tester defeated incumbent Conrad), Ohio (Brown defeated incumbent DeWine), Pennsylvania (Casey defeated incumbent Santorum), Rhode Island (Whitehouse defeated incumbent Chafee), Virginia (Webb defeated incumbent Allen).

2012 - Indiana (Donnelly won open seat), Maine (King won open seat), Massachusetts (Warren defeated incumbent Brown).

The only seats Republicans have picked up in this group are:
2000 - Nevada (Ensign won open seat), Virginia (Allen defeated incumbent Robb)
2006 - no Republican pickups
2012 - Nebraska (Fischer won open seat)

That's truly astonishing, when you think about it. The three times this group has been up since the Republican Revolution, the GOP has only been able to pick up three seats, all of which were canceled out by Democratic gains. And in many instances, the Republican challengers weren't bad ones, but they just couldn't gain traction for one reason or another.

Like Maryland in 2006; very popular moderate Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele faced off against Ben Cardin, and still defeated him by 10 points. Or in 2012, Tammy Baldwin SHOULD have been an underdog against popular former Gov. Tommy Thompson, but she ended up defeating him by 5 points.

You really have to wonder if it's just luck, or if there's something about this group that voters really like.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Florida's Class 1 Senate Seat - Easily my pick for Republicans. They've been trying to regain this seat ever since Bill Nelson won in 2000. In 2006, he faced Katherine Clark, who he easily defeated. And in 2012, Republicans touted Connie Mack IV as the one who would finally defeat him, yet Nelson easily prevailed.

Harris, not Clark.

[PAK Man]

Florida's Class 1 Senate Seat - Easily my pick for Republicans. They've been trying to regain this seat ever since Bill Nelson won in 2000. In 2006, he faced Katherine Clark, who he easily defeated. And in 2012, Republicans touted Connie Mack IV as the one who would finally defeat him, yet Nelson easily prevailed.

Harris, not Clark.

Ah yes, my mistake! Wouldn't be the first time I've screwed up a politician's name (I once called former Iowa Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson Sally Thompson. Sally Thompson is a politician from Kansas)

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I would definitely agree that the entire class one group of senators has been bad luck for Republicans, especially since 2000. Starting in that cycle, Democrats have gained seats every time this group has been up for reelection.

2000 - Delaware (Carper defeated incumbent Roth), Florida (Nelson won open seat), Michigan (Stabenow defeated incumbent Abraham), Minnesota (Dayton defeated incumbent Grams), Missouri (The late Carnahan defeated incumbent Ashcroft), Washington (Cantwell defeated incumbent Gorton).

2006 - Missouri (McCaskill defeated incumbent Talent), Montana (Tester defeated incumbent Conrad), Ohio (Brown defeated incumbent DeWine), Pennsylvania (Casey defeated incumbent Santorum), Rhode Island (Whitehouse defeated incumbent Chafee), Virginia (Webb defeated incumbent Allen).

2012 - Indiana (Donnelly won open seat), Maine (King won open seat), Massachusetts (Warren defeated incumbent Brown).

The only seats Republicans have picked up in this group are:
2000 - Nevada (Ensign won open seat), Virginia (Allen defeated incumbent Robb)
2006 - no Republican pickups
2012 - Nebraska (Fischer won open seat)

That's truly astonishing, when you think about it. The three times this group has been up since the Republican Revolution, the GOP has only been able to pick up three seats, all of which were canceled out by Democratic gains. And in many instances, the Republican challengers weren't bad ones, but they just couldn't gain traction for one reason or another.

Like Maryland in 2006; very popular moderate Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele faced off against Ben Cardin, and still defeated him by 10 points. Or in 2012, Tammy Baldwin SHOULD have been an underdog against popular former Gov. Tommy Thompson, but she ended up defeating him by 5 points.

You really have to wonder if it's just luck, or if there's something about this group that voters really like.

I think it's just "luck" in that this Senate class always comes up for election during a bad or subpar year for Republicans. In 2000 this class was coming off of the 1994 wave, and so even as the presidential race was a virtual tie there was something of a reversion to the mean with mostly blue state seats flipping. 2006 is self explanatory, and 2012 was a combination of candidates shooting themselves in the foot (Akin, Mourdock) or candidates who looked good on paper but turned out to be duds (Mack, Thompson, Allen).

[PAK Man]

One more seat I thought of: California's 21st District

Although it Leans Democratic, no serious Democrats ever come out of the woodwork to challenge David Valadao. His 2012 challenger completely imploded (and I think Democrats completely ignored him), his 2014 challenger was touted as a good candidate but she never materialized as a strong challenger, and House Majority PAC actually released ads propping up his challenger this year. When does that ever happen? Democrats also never moved him off the "Emerging Races" list (though oddly, they moved Don Young's challenger to "Red to Blue.")

[Xing]

Class 1 has been generally bad for Republicans for a while, and Class 3 has been bad for Democrats. Seems that pattern could actually continue for a bit longer, given how things are going.

[PAK Man]

Class 1 has been generally bad for Republicans for a while, and Class 3 has been bad for Democrats. Seems that pattern could actually continue for a bit longer, given how things are going.

It seems like ever since 2004, Dems have had absolute rotten luck with the class three seats. They lost Florida (which they'd held since 1987), Georgia (which they'd held since 2000), South Dakota (held since 1987), South Carolina (held since the 60s) and Louisiana (held since 1987). That year they also lost their one shot at taking out Lisa Murkowski (she just barely won over former Gov. Tony Knowles) as well as their one shot at taking out Jim Bunning (who just barely won over Dan Mongiardo). Some of those seats are lost for the foreseeable future, while others could be competitive with the right candidate or in an open seat.

Much like how Joseph McCarthy allegedly "cursed" the class one Wisconsin seat for Republicans, I think John Edwards cursed the class three North Carolina seat for the Democrats. That seat used to flip back and forth every election cycle, but now it's stuck, though Burr came pretty close to losing this year (then again, it doesn't help, despite NC's decent Democratic bench, they can never get anyone strong for the seat).

Seems like the class two seats are the ultimate "swing" class. They went Republican in 2014, Democratic in 2008 and was a mixed bag in 2002 (Dems lost Missouri, Minnesota and Georgia, but picked up Arkansas).