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  2018/2019 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread
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Author Topic: 2018/2019 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread  (Read 94922 times)
96FJV
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« Reply #500 on: August 03, 2018, 08:00:00 am »

What is Bill Lee like? Is he far right? I really hope Karl Dean makes this a race.
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« Reply #501 on: August 03, 2018, 08:03:58 am »

What is Bill Lee like? Is he far right? I really hope Karl Dean makes this a race.

Less far right then Diane Black (that's sure), but still conservative enough (no one else can win Republican primary in Tennessee)
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TomC
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« Reply #502 on: August 03, 2018, 06:40:43 pm »
« Edited: August 04, 2018, 08:51:16 am by TCash101 »

What is Bill Lee like? Is he far right? I really hope Karl Dean makes this a race.

Less far right then Diane Black (that's sure), but still conservative enough (no one else can win Republican primary in Tennessee)

I’m not sure I agree. He’s a hard right social conservative who wears his Christianity on his sleeves. On economics, I don’t know enough. His education platform seems to be “back to basics” and supportive of public schools, not a “CHOICE” monger,  but it’s pretty vague.

But Lee’s never held elective office, so really hard to tell with certainty.

I’ll vote for Dean, but i wasn’t a big fan while he was mayor; he was not that great for schools and teachers. He’s a Chamber if Commerce Democrat to be sure.

And on “no one else can win primary in Tennessee,” Lee is the most conservative to win a statewide primary since Bredesen’s 2006 opponent; other successful GOP nominees have been moderate patricians.
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« Reply #503 on: August 04, 2018, 12:35:49 am »
« Edited: August 04, 2018, 12:39:12 am by smoltchanov »

^ Well, i stressed, that all characteristics were relative: Boyd was the most moderate  (as frequently happend before, coming from the East), while Black - the most reactionary. Lee, IMHO, is somewhere "in between".... But. social conservatism and religiosity of Republican nominee in southern state is, surely, nothing new. I would be much more surprsed if it was NOT so...
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TomC
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« Reply #504 on: August 04, 2018, 07:15:21 am »
« Edited: August 04, 2018, 08:52:10 am by TCash101 »

But. social conservatism and religiosity of Republican nominee in southern state is, surely, nothing new. I would be much more surprsed if it was NOT so...

Now you’re just stereotyping. I’m not speaking about any other southern state. Bill Lee touted his religiosity more than any successful (nominated) state-wide candidate  in Tennessee in the last 18 years. Harwell was by far the most moderate, while Boyd, who others characterized early on as moderate (and probably would have been in office), tried hard in ads and speeches to prove he was plenty conservative enough for Tennessee. He spent the campaign trying to dispel the myth he was moderate. Whether that was a ruse we won’t know. Black basically said “yeah, what Trump says” which might make her the most knee jerk partisan, but not the most conservative. Again, the most successful Republican nominees in recent years, namely Corker, Alexander, and Haslam, are more moderate patricians than dyed-in-the-wool conservatives. Much to the disappointment of many Tennessee movement conservatives, who are very happy with Lee and Blackburn. Black lost because of the perception that at her core, she’s out to use government to make the rich, including herself and her drug testing company husband, richer via big government. She lost because of that and that her negative ads against others backfired majorly. Lee touted his religiosity in the context of every social issue on the list, his rural roots, and had a positive, upbeat campaign that voters turned to as they grew disgusted by Black and Boyd’s mud slinging.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/tn-elections/2018/08/03/bill-lee-tennessee-governor-randy-boyd-diane-black/899615002/

But by far, the cornerstone of his campaign was Lee’s own personal story that he told at every town hall and forum across the state — his personal tragedy in the death of his first wife of 16 years, Carol Ann, and how it drew him closer to God.

“My faith is the most important thing in my life, and that won't change when I'm the governor," he said in one ad, set in front of the South Harpeth Church of Christ where Lee attended as a child.

"In recent times, too often the voice of the faithful has been made to feel increasingly unwelcome in the public square, and that's a mistake," he said. "The phrase 'separation of church and state' has been twisted. It was intended to keep the government out of church, but not to keep people of faith out of the government."

He said the governor’s office is a “calling.”
Even some of Lee's most high-profile supporters have deep connections to the faith community. Notable names include Christian music recording artist Michael W. Smith, for instance.
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TomC
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« Reply #505 on: August 04, 2018, 08:04:20 am »

Though I’ll admit, using the “Uber” prefix was hyperbole.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #506 on: August 04, 2018, 08:52:39 am »

But. social conservatism and religiosity of Republican nominee in southern state is, surely, nothing new. I would be much more surprsed if it was NOT so...

Now you’re just stereotyping. I’m not speaking about any other southern state. Bill Lee touted his religiosity more than any successful (nominated) state-wide candidate  in Tennessee in the last 18 years. Harwell was by far the most moderate, while Boyd, who others characterized early on as moderate (and probably would have been in office), tried hard in ads and speeches to prove he was plenty conservative enough for Tennessee. He spent the campaign trying to dispel the myth he was moderate. Whether that was a ruse we won’t know. Black basically said “yeah, what Trump says” which might make her the most knee jerk partisan, but not the most conservative. Again, the most successful Republican nominees in recent years, namely Corker, Alexander, and Haslam, are more moderate patricians than dyed-in-the-wool conservatives. Much to the disappointment of many Tennessee movement conservatives, who are very happy with Lee and Blackburn. Black lost because of the perception that at her core, she’s out to use government to make the rich, including herself and her drug testing company husband, richer via big government. She lost because of that and that her negative ads against others backfired majorly. Lee touted his religiosity in the context of every social issue on the list, his rural roots, and had a positive, upbeat campaign that voters turned to as they grew disgusted by Black and Boyd’s mud slinging.

Thanks for info! But i don't remember even the most moderate Republicans from Tennessee, for example (Baker, Haslam, Alexander, Corker) being especially socially moderate: all were pro-life to some extent, all were (at least - initially) skeptical about "gay marriage" and similar issues, and so on. Hence - this generalization. I understand, that some are more socially conservative then other, but i don't remember anyone, who was even a social moderate (even Haslam). In some other southern states i know such persons (like Sarah Davis in Texas), but - not in Tennessee, where i know only an opposite-type persons - socially conservative Democrats. Of course - i may be wrong, but that's an impression i got...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #507 on: August 04, 2018, 11:13:53 am »

^ More thanks for interesting post and article link!
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #508 on: November 09, 2018, 04:51:49 pm »

2019-2021




Gov-elect Beshear-KY
Gov-elect Reaves-MS
Gov-elect Dem VA
Gov-elect Foxx-MT
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RecoveringDem
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« Reply #509 on: November 24, 2018, 05:42:31 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?
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Badger
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« Reply #510 on: November 25, 2018, 12:18:04 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Has Hood indicated he's actually running for governor this time?

If not, how many elections has this been were Democrats Pine away for him to run thinking he is there golden ticket to finally narrowly retaking the governor's mansion, only to have Hood choose job security over a nominal promotion?
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #511 on: November 25, 2018, 12:19:20 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Has Hood indicated he's actually running for governor this time?

If not, how many elections has this been were Democrats Pine away for him to run thinking he is there golden ticket to finally narrowly retaking the governor's mansion, only to have Hood choose job security over a nominal promotion?

Jim Hood announced a while ago that he’s running.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #512 on: December 02, 2018, 02:39:18 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #513 on: December 02, 2018, 02:53:34 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.
I really wouldn't discount Hood. He is much more popular than Reeves.
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« Reply #514 on: December 02, 2018, 06:59:47 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.
*rolls eyes*
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #515 on: December 04, 2018, 07:19:15 am »



YES
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #516 on: December 04, 2018, 07:24:40 am »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #517 on: December 04, 2018, 05:12:31 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.
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« Reply #518 on: December 04, 2018, 05:13:58 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

This isn't necessarily true. Polls didn't do Heller and Bredesen (among many, many others) much good when they conflicted heavily with the fundamentals.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #519 on: December 04, 2018, 05:14:44 pm »

Tilt D
P-LA JBE
Tossup
T-KY M.Bevin
Tilt R
T-MS Reeves
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« Reply #520 on: December 04, 2018, 05:17:42 pm »

I see we're probably going to go through "toss-up Kentucky" mania again, only for Bevin to win re-election again. Mississippi will be more competitive.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #521 on: December 04, 2018, 05:23:55 pm »

I see we're probably going to go through "toss-up Kentucky" mania again, only for Bevin to win re-election again. Mississippi will be more competitive.

Reeves is gonna win, the GOP state assembly overrode a funding bill for schools, a pet project of Beshear, that Bevin vetoed. The school funding bill benefitted Democrats.
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« Reply #522 on: December 04, 2018, 05:27:33 pm »

I see we're probably going to go through "toss-up Kentucky" mania again, only for Bevin to win re-election again. Mississippi will be more competitive.

Indeed, Atlas never learns. It's going to be TN-Sen 2018/OK-Gov 2018 redux. I have a new sig for the occasion.
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« Reply #523 on: December 04, 2018, 05:48:18 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

This isn't necessarily true. Polls didn't do Heller and Bredesen (among many, many others) much good when they conflicted heavily with the fundamentals.

True, we can call races like AL and CO, based on many factors. But the 2019 Guber races arent the place to do so. For all we know, Ds win all three, or lose all three. I would rather wait for polling and whatnot before making a declaration about the three governorships.
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« Reply #524 on: December 04, 2018, 05:50:17 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.
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