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  2018/2019 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread
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Author Topic: 2018/2019 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread  (Read 98573 times)
Politician stands with Sanchez
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« Reply #525 on: December 04, 2018, 05:51:42 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.
This guy predicted Hyde Smith would win by 20 so he can be safely ignored
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DaWN
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« Reply #526 on: December 04, 2018, 05:58:19 pm »

I suspect KY-GOV is probably fool's gold but it's definitely a better bet than trying to beat McConnell lol
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IceSpear
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« Reply #527 on: December 04, 2018, 06:15:11 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
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Politician stands with Sanchez
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« Reply #528 on: December 04, 2018, 06:17:07 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #529 on: December 04, 2018, 06:18:13 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0

Last I checked, Stintt was not the unpopular governor of OK.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #530 on: December 04, 2018, 06:18:46 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

plus OK is definitely more Republican than KY
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IceSpear
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« Reply #531 on: December 04, 2018, 06:23:29 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

Funny, that didn't seem to matter to you guys when you were arguing Edmondson would win because of Fallin's approval and called me insane for rating it safe R and saying Stitt would win by double digits. I guess history never stops repeating itself.

Predicting Edmondson would win was an even worse prediction than Hyde-Smith +20 btw.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #532 on: December 04, 2018, 06:28:42 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

Funny, that didn't seem to matter to you guys when you were arguing Edmondson would win because of Fallin's approval and called me insane for rating it safe R and saying Stitt would win by double digits. I guess history never stops repeating itself.

Predicting Edmondson would win was an even worse prediction than Hyde-Smith +20 btw.

While I wasnt one of those people, there was still points of data that pointed towards it being a possibility. There was no evidence of that occurring in MS. The MS prediction is just plain bad, and ignores the facts of the elections.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #533 on: December 04, 2018, 06:33:06 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.

Candidate quality and approval ratings simply don't matter as much anymore, not in heavily Republican or heavily Democratic states. Bredesen was the best candidate Democrats could nominate in Tennessee, and he still lost by double digits. Richard Ojeda was a good fit for WV-03, yet he lost by double digits. Bob Hugin lost by double digits despite Menendez's scandals and personal unpopularity. Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale were terrible candidates, yet all three of them came within single digits (and in the cases of Morrisey and Rosendale, within 3 points) of victory. The fundamentals of each state are a more important factor than anything else, especially in this polarized environment.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #534 on: December 04, 2018, 06:43:17 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.

Candidate quality and approval ratings simply don't matter as much anymore, not in heavily Republican or heavily Democratic states. Bredesen was the best candidate Democrats could nominate in Tennessee, and he still lost by double digits. Richard Ojeda was a good fit for WV-03, yet he lost by double digits. Bob Hugin lost by double digits despite Menendez's scandals and personal unpopularity. Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale were terrible candidates, yet all three of them came within single digits (and in the cases of Morrisey and Rosendale, within 3 points) of victory. The fundamentals of each state are a more important factor than anything else, especially in this polarized environment.

You are only showing 1/2 the story.
Just a short rebuttal.

Bredesen ran a poor campaign, and couldnt capitalize on his momentum.
Ojeda was literally running in a Trump+50 district.
Hugin wasnt popular in NJ either, Menendez 23/44, Hugin 25/34
WV was Trump's best state, MT was a Trump +20 state(and the popular Democrat won, kinda a counterargument to your point, TBH) and OH saw a large trend to the right in 2018.

Partisanship is important, but popularity and appeal still matter, and its why many house candidates were able to clear the threshold.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #535 on: December 04, 2018, 06:43:27 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

Funny, that didn't seem to matter to you guys when you were arguing Edmondson would win because of Fallin's approval and called me insane for rating it safe R and saying Stitt would win by double digits. I guess history never stops repeating itself.

Predicting Edmondson would win was an even worse prediction than Hyde-Smith +20 btw.

While I wasnt one of those people, there was still points of data that pointed towards it being a possibility. There was no evidence of that occurring in MS. The MS prediction is just plain bad, and ignores the facts of the elections.

There really were not. He trailed in every single poll in the last few months and polls always overestimate the Dems in Oklahoma anyway. Fundamentals? It's Oklahoma! There were absolutely zero things pointing to him winning other than Muhry Fallin's approval and hackery. Same for Kentucky. Kentucky polls overestimate the Democrats, Conway had a lead even right before the election then still got BTFO. And as for the fundamentals, it's Kentucky. Bevin being unpopular doesn't matter. They are not going to elect a Democrat.

Atlas really needs to learn the lesson from the flameouts of Bredesen, Edmondson, etc. Some states are just unwinnable no matter what.

By the way, in regards to "gubernatorial elections being different"...only one red state elected a Democratic governor this year even in a D+9 environment, and that state (Kansas) wasn't even all that red this year. Clearly polarization is increasing for them as well unless there's a popular incumbent like Beebe, Hogan, etc.
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Lfromnj stands with Sanchez.
lfromnj
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« Reply #536 on: December 04, 2018, 06:44:46 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

Funny, that didn't seem to matter to you guys when you were arguing Edmondson would win because of Fallin's approval and called me insane for rating it safe R and saying Stitt would win by double digits. I guess history never stops repeating itself.

Predicting Edmondson would win was an even worse prediction than Hyde-Smith +20 btw.

While I wasnt one of those people, there was still points of data that pointed towards it being a possibility. There was no evidence of that occurring in MS. The MS prediction is just plain bad, and ignores the facts of the elections.

There really were not. He trailed in every single poll in the last few months and polls always overestimate the Dems in Oklahoma anyway. Fundamentals? It's Oklahoma! There were absolutely zero things pointing to him winning other than Muhry Fallin's approval and hackery. Same for Kentucky. Kentucky polls overestimate the Democrats, Conway had a lead even right before the election then still got BTFO. And as for the fundamentals, it's Kentucky. Bevin being unpopular doesn't matter. They are not going to elect a Democrat.

Atlas really needs to learn the lesson from the flameouts of Bredesen, Edmondson, etc. Some states are just unwinnable no matter what.

By the way, in regards to "gubernatorial elections being different"...only one red state elected a Democratic governor this year, and the state wasn't even all that red this year. Clearly polarization is increasing for them as well unless there's a popular incumbent like Beebe, Hogan, etc.

my favorite part of atlas
Oklahoma tossup tilt R coz Stitt weak candidate muh FALLIN and Edmonson = strong candidate
Texas Safe R because Lupe Valdez weak candidate.
Both results were almost the same. Also yeah people gonna spam muh kansas when kansas is a D trending state with a lot of RINOs who might consider the D line. Its incredible how far left Johnson went this year for the gov race.
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mrappaport1220
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« Reply #537 on: December 08, 2018, 10:21:07 pm »

Very Interesting!
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Oashigo
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« Reply #538 on: February 03, 2019, 07:44:20 pm »

You can't compare how Democrats do in red state senate elections to red state governor elections. While Democrats lost badly in red state senate elections in 2018, they did much better in Gubernatorial elections, winning Kansas and coming close in South Dakota. At the same time, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maryland elected Republican governors. In general, people are much less partisan in gubernatorial elections than in Senate elections.
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