2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread
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  2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread  (Read 151232 times)
houseonaboat
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« Reply #100 on: January 04, 2017, 07:57:32 PM »
« edited: January 04, 2017, 08:21:25 PM by houseonaboat »

NJ: Senator Ray Lesniak, after declaring that he would run for Governor in June, declaring that he wouldn't run in October, and declaring that he might retire from politics altogether just a week ago, is now strongly leaning towards... running for Governor. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/is_lesniak_planning_to_run_for_nj_governor_after_a.html
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VPH
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« Reply #101 on: January 04, 2017, 08:06:30 PM »

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #102 on: January 04, 2017, 10:02:08 PM »

IA: Rich Leopold (D) to run for governor.

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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/04/democrat-rich-leopold-run-governor/96148242/
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henster
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« Reply #103 on: January 05, 2017, 12:34:01 AM »

Who will probably be running and most likely to win primary/GE.

IA: Liz Mathis
NV: Ross Miller
CO: Ed Perlmutter
WI: Ron Kind
OH: Tim Ryan
ME: Janet Mills
MN: Lori Swanson

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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #104 on: January 05, 2017, 12:23:32 PM »

Who will probably be running and most likely to win primary/GE.

IA: Liz Mathis
NV: Ross Miller
CO: Ed Perlmutter
WI: Ron Kind
OH: Tim Ryan
ME: Janet Mills
MN: Lori Swanson



There are strong options. I don't know much about Mills or Mathis, but looking at this the dial moves a lot in our direction.

IA: ? prolly Leans R
NV: Tossup
CO: Leans D
WI: Leans D (But what happens to Kind's House seat?)
OH: Tossup (Ditto)
ME: Leans D
MN: Leans D
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houseonaboat
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« Reply #105 on: January 05, 2017, 12:46:29 PM »

Who will probably be running and most likely to win primary/GE.

IA: Liz Mathis
NV: Ross Miller
CO: Ed Perlmutter
WI: Ron Kind
OH: Tim Ryan
ME: Janet Mills
MN: Lori Swanson



There are strong options. I don't know much about Mills or Mathis, but looking at this the dial moves a lot in our direction.

IA: ? prolly Leans R
NV: Tossup
CO: Leans D
WI: Leans D (But what happens to Kind's House seat?)
OH: Tossup (Ditto)
ME: Leans D
MN: Leans D

After Feingold and Clinton lost that state, Walker won in a recall... how can you argue that Wisconsin leans Democrat? I'm more convinced by "Likely R" arguments than I am by "Lean D" ones.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #106 on: January 05, 2017, 05:04:43 PM »

The race is wide open in CT for 2018. Here's some background on the potential candidates, roughly in order of likelihood of running.

Democrats:
Dan Drew - Middletown Mayor, ambitious guy but pretty young (36), would have fundraising troubles
Kevin Lembo - Comptroller, wants to run but would probably defer to Wyman
Martin Looney - CT Sen Pres Pro Tem, interested but would defer to Wyman
Dan Esty - Yale Professor and Environmental Lawyer, husband to Rep. Elizabeth Esty (CT-5)
Susan Bysiewicz - Fmr SoS, well known but has a losing streak, out of politics too long
Ted Kennedy Jr - State Sen., has a famous name, some history of campaign funding issues
Jonathan Harris - Consumer Protection Admin, has been making the rounds, but pretty unknown
Nancy Wyman - Lt. Gov, may be too connected to Malloy
Dan Malloy - Incumbent Gov, he's probably out and would face a primary challenger if he ran
George Jepsen - CT AG, like's being AG and probably won't run


From what I've heard from state party people, Dan Drew and Kevin Lembo both really want the job and will run if Nancy Wyman does not. Right now, I would guess that both Malloy and Wyman pass, and the top tier of entering candidates will be Drew, Lembo, and Looney (with Lembo possibly a slight favorite).

Republicans:
Prasad Srinivasan - State Rep., only declared candidate of either party so far
Tim Herbst - Trumbull First Selectman, mentioned by CT GOP Chair as a potential candidate
Peter Lumaj - Attorney, ran for Senate in 2012, created exploratory committee
Mark Lauretti - Shelton Mayor, mentioned by CT GOP Chair as a potential candidate
Tony Hwang - State Sen., created exploratory committee 2 years ago but internal #s are meh
Mark Boughton - Danbury Mayor, ran for Lt. Gov in 2010 and Gov in 2014, created exploratory committee
Rob Kane - State Sen., created exploratory committee
Erin Stewart - Not ruling it out, she's like the Republican version of Dan Drew, there's a post about her made earlier.
Greg Butler -  Like's being considered a potential candidate
Len Fasano -  Like's being considered a potential candidate
Toni Boucher - Linda McMahon said to watch her
Jayme Stevenson - Linda McMahon said to watch her
John McKinney - Fmr House Minority Leader, ran for Gov in 2014
Tom Foley - Gov nominee in 2010 and 2014, probably not interested in running again


I don't know as much about GOP politics in CT, but the bigger names to watch here are probably Herbst, Boughton, and Hwang.

This likely won't be accurate, but my very early guess is that Lembo defeats Herbst.

http://www.dailyructions.com/eye-on-estys-its-him-not-her-malloy-ally-testing-waters-for-2018-run-for-governor/
https://dennishouse.tv/2017/01/02/who-will-run-for-governor-in-2018/
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henster
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« Reply #107 on: January 05, 2017, 05:26:09 PM »

In MN it looks to be crowded with Chris Coleman, Otto, Tina Smith, Swanson and Tim Walz. I think Lori Swanson would be the strongest candidate by far, she has won statewide 3x times by impressive margins. She has always done well in the Metro and outstate even in bad years for Ds '10/'14. 12+ years as a AG is a good record to run on as well.
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Drew
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« Reply #108 on: January 05, 2017, 11:08:08 PM »

CA: Former LA Ram Rosey Grier (R) running.

http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/312969-former-los-angeles-rams-star-im-running-for-california-governor
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #109 on: January 06, 2017, 09:58:59 PM »

Who will probably be running and most likely to win primary/GE.

IA: Liz Mathis
NV: Ross Miller
CO: Ed Perlmutter
WI: Ron Kind
OH: Tim Ryan
ME: Janet Mills
MN: Lori Swanson



There are strong options. I don't know much about Mills or Mathis, but looking at this the dial moves a lot in our direction.

IA: ? prolly Leans R
NV: Tossup
CO: Leans D
WI: Leans D (But what happens to Kind's House seat?)
OH: Tossup (Ditto)
ME: Leans D
MN: Leans D

After Feingold and Clinton lost that state, Walker won in a recall... how can you argue that Wisconsin leans Democrat? I'm more convinced by "Likely R" arguments than I am by "Lean D" ones.

Against the Mayor of Milwauee and a bike company executive, not a blue-collar congressman. He has bad approval ratings.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #110 on: January 08, 2017, 09:24:52 PM »

NV: Hutchison out. Laxalt has the field to himself.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #111 on: January 08, 2017, 09:28:30 PM »


That's kind of surprising.
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Incipimus iterum
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« Reply #112 on: January 08, 2017, 10:05:40 PM »

Michigan:Gretchen Whitmer is running for governor.[/url[url=http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/boise/2016/jun/29/lt-gov-brad-little-jumps-race-governor-succeed-otter-2018/]Idaho: Lt Governor Brad Little is in
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #113 on: January 09, 2017, 03:18:23 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2017, 04:43:14 PM by Castro »

Texas Lt. Gov Dan Patrick will not challenge Gov. Greg Abbott in 2018.

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/texas-politics/2017/01/09/texas-lt-gov-dan-patrick-seek-reelection-2018-repeats-promise-challenge-gov-greg-abbott


Otto is in for MN.

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  14m14 minutes ago
MINNESOTA: St Auditor Rebecca Otto (D) today became the 3rd Dem to enter the open 2018 gubernatorial race.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #114 on: January 09, 2017, 06:11:55 PM »


Yeah, no kidding. IMO Heller and Hutch were both much stronger candidates, too. Laxalt seems to be shooting party in the foot
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Maxwell
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« Reply #115 on: January 09, 2017, 07:10:03 PM »

It seems Nevada Republicans, as expected, will run away from the remarkably popular Brian Sandoval legacy.

Dems have an opportunity here!
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #116 on: January 09, 2017, 07:19:40 PM »

TN-2018: State Sen. Mark Green (R) launches his candidacy:
http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/05/sen-mark-green-launches-bid-governor/96205260/

He was also one of the first people to interrogate Saddam Hussein in Iraq after he was captured.  I won't endorse for a while, but I could potentially vote for him in the primary.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #117 on: January 09, 2017, 08:08:31 PM »

TN-2018: State Sen. Mark Green (R) launches his candidacy:
http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/05/sen-mark-green-launches-bid-governor/96205260/

He was also one of the first people to interrogate Saddam Hussein in Iraq after he was captured.  I won't endorse for a while, but I could potentially vote for him in the primary.

What's his place on the spectrum? More like Haslam or more like Blackburn?

It seems Nevada Republicans, as expected, will run away from the remarkably popular Brian Sandoval legacy.

Dems have an opportunity here!

Mind bogglingly stupid of them. Blue state Repubs should look at NV 14 and salivate
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henster
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« Reply #118 on: January 09, 2017, 08:47:40 PM »

Swanson has always done very well in rural areas, pro-gun, pro-mining she is exactly what the DFL needs right now.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #119 on: January 09, 2017, 10:10:09 PM »

TN-2018: State Sen. Mark Green (R) launches his candidacy:
http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/05/sen-mark-green-launches-bid-governor/96205260/

He was also one of the first people to interrogate Saddam Hussein in Iraq after he was captured.  I won't endorse for a while, but I could potentially vote for him in the primary.

What's his place on the spectrum? More like Haslam or more like Blackburn?

It seems Nevada Republicans, as expected, will run away from the remarkably popular Brian Sandoval legacy.

Dems have an opportunity here!

Mind bogglingly stupid of them. Blue state Repubs should look at NV 14 and salivate

Mark Green has a 90% rating from the ACU, so probably closer to Blackburn.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #120 on: January 09, 2017, 10:19:51 PM »

TN-2018: State Sen. Mark Green (R) launches his candidacy:
http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/05/sen-mark-green-launches-bid-governor/96205260/

He was also one of the first people to interrogate Saddam Hussein in Iraq after he was captured.  I won't endorse for a while, but I could potentially vote for him in the primary.

What's his place on the spectrum? More like Haslam or more like Blackburn?

It seems Nevada Republicans, as expected, will run away from the remarkably popular Brian Sandoval legacy.

Dems have an opportunity here!

Mind bogglingly stupid of them. Blue state Repubs should look at NV 14 and salivate

Mark Green has a 90% rating from the ACU, so probably closer to Blackburn.

Haslam is more my cup of tea, but that sounds appropriate for a Tennessee Republican.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #121 on: January 10, 2017, 01:20:55 AM »
« Edited: January 10, 2017, 01:24:25 AM by Hindsight is 2020 »

It seems Nevada Republicans, as expected, will run away from the remarkably popular Brian Sandoval legacy.

Dems have an opportunity here!
Steve Sisolak is a happy man right now
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #122 on: January 10, 2017, 02:18:28 AM »

TN-2018: State Sen. Mark Green (R) launches his candidacy:
http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/05/sen-mark-green-launches-bid-governor/96205260/

He was also one of the first people to interrogate Saddam Hussein in Iraq after he was captured.  I won't endorse for a while, but I could potentially vote for him in the primary.

What's his place on the spectrum? More like Haslam or more like Blackburn?

It seems Nevada Republicans, as expected, will run away from the remarkably popular Brian Sandoval legacy.

Dems have an opportunity here!

Mind bogglingly stupid of them. Blue state Repubs should look at NV 14 and salivate

Mark Green has a 90% rating from the ACU, so probably closer to Blackburn.

Haslam is more my cup of tea, but that sounds appropriate for a Tennessee Republican.

Not my type either. Haslam and Alexander are absolutely fine to me, but far-rightists - never. Even in conservative states..
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KingSweden
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« Reply #123 on: January 10, 2017, 10:51:13 AM »

Is NV Gov looking to be Sisolak vs Cloobeck? I have a hunch Ross Miller runs for the open AG slot personally
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #124 on: January 10, 2017, 11:14:03 AM »

Is NV Gov looking to be Sisolak vs Cloobeck? I have a hunch Ross Miller runs for the open AG slot personally

Cloobeck may run for Senate instead.
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