2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/11/joe_schiavoni_the_goal_is_to_r.html OH Sen Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni is all but in.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/11/joe_schiavoni_the_goal_is_to_r.html OH Sen Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni is all but in.

Unless Ryan runs...

Yes, but why would you ever leave a safe as safe can be congressional seat? A few of my friends in Ohio have pointed this out to me when I've put Ryan forward.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

CA: Thiel is considering, but probably won't run.

PLEASE let him run. I can't wait to see the ads about how he's literally out for your blood.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

SC: Dem Chair Jaime Harrison is considering a run.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/governors-races-democrats-rift-235951

Not to derail the thread, but that article was just... so Politico.

"We talked to one Bluedog Chair and he said something juicy about needing Moderate Heroes, so we shoehorned a bunch of other southern moderate Dem chair quotes that don't really say the same thing into saying the same thing. Also Our Revolution is an omnicapable Shadow DNC that's going to form a third party."

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

SC: Dem Chair Jaime Harrison is considering a run.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/governors-races-democrats-rift-235951

Not to derail the thread, but that article was just... so Politico.

"We talked to one Bluedog Chair and he said something juicy about needing Moderate Heroes, so we shoehorned a bunch of other southern moderate Dem chair quotes that don't really say the same thing into saying the same thing. Also Our Revolution is an omnicapable Shadow DNC that's going to form a third party."

In the South (except for minority-majority districts) and some other areas you really need Blue Dogs and "Moderate Heroes". Of course - if you want to win at least sometimes. If not, and you are satisfied by only "making the case" - well, then run Berniecrats in every district, and be politically insignificant.... Let Republicans do what they want)))))

1) My criticism was of the journalism. Whatever you think of electoral strategies for the south, the chairs in the article were plain-up NOT saying what Politico wanted them to be saying. Basically the only quote affirming what the article thinks is a guy in SC who *isn't even professionally involved with the Democratic party anymore. * He's a lawyer with a big DC firm (coincidentally, the one that employed Evan Bayh).

This article picks a narrative, goes out to specifically trying to confirm it, and fails even to do that. The only thing that made sure that it got published was that it confirms Politico's view of how politics works.

Of course, it's also *your* view of how politics works so I don't really expect to change your mind here.


2) Blue Dog =! Moderate Hero in each and every case. I'm perfectly fine with populists who like guns and flags. Hell, I like guns and flags. But thinking like, "The only Dems who are gonna get elected in the South will be Republican Lite^TM" Is deeply silly, and contradicts the history of the region.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Hopefully Chris Pappas runs against Sununu in NH

Lol, why? He'd make the race Lean D, whereas Shaheen, Kuster, Shea-Porter, etc. would all make it Likely or Safe D.

None of the people you listed have any desire or rational reason to run for NHGov

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Winning a gubernatorial race easily isn't a good enough reason? Like I said, I would expect Pappas or Van Ostern to win, but it wouldn't be as easy as with someone like Shaheen. Sununu isn't popular, a terrible fit for his state and an accidental governor anyway (we all know why he won in the first place). I certainly hope you guys are more competent this time and nominate the "right" candidate. I can't stand Sununu, plus he needs to be taken down before he can run against Jeanne Shaheen in 2020. Oh well, having CSP and Kuster on the ballot will certainly help.

Unless you mean Stefany Shaheen when you say Shaheen, CSP, Kuster, and Sen. Shaheen all have far more power in Congress than they would as NHGov.

Sure, they might win easily per your bizarre theory. But Governor of New Hampshire is a terrible position, especially if you don't flip the Exec Council. The most junior congresscritter has a far more enviable position than John Lynch did in 2012 having been gov for 8 years.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

^Of course I mean Stefany Shaheen. Jeanne Shaheen would be insane to give up her safe Senate seat. The NH Senate can definitely be flipped, even in a neutral year. The NH House would be a bit more difficult, but it's doable as well, especially if the GOP nominates terrible candidates across the board.

That DailyKos article is a bit misleading and hackish, though (no surprise given the source). Yes, Republicans could face "catastrophic" losses (although I think that's pretty unlikely), but people like Greg Abbott aren't going to lose just because Trump underperformed badly in their states. Gubernatorial races are much less partisan than Senate races, which is why someone like Mike Beebe is able to win by 30 points even as Blanche Lincoln loses by 21. Or think of John Bel Edwards, Jodi Rell, Arnold Schwarzenegger, etc.

Also: If presidential election margin were everything, Republicans would have a much harder time winning WI than KS. I doubt that will be the case on election day, though.

1) The NH house pretty much goes the way the state PV goes. Unless, like this year, the PV margin is razor thin. The State Senate is more heavily gerrymandered.

2) I didn't stay state leg, I said Exec Council. And that *is * pretty well gerrymandered. Maybe the 1st district swings if you don't put up someone like Cryans, but it's very hard for Dems to break through to a 3-2 split.