2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[Bidenworth2020]

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

I really wouldn't discount Hood. He is much more popular than Reeves.

[Bidenworth2020]

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[Bidenworth2020]

Some thoughts WRT the Governor's Race in 2022:

-Franchot is extremely popular in the state, with only 3% disapproval. If he wins the primary, the general election will not be close no matter who republicans put up (and he probably would have beaten Hogan had he chosen to run in either 2014 or 2018)

- that being said, he is not necessarily a lock for the primary. He starts out with a very high floor of more moderate, white democrats, but he has no strong rapport with african americans. This gives a pathway to someone like PG county commissioner Angela Alsobrooks or even future Baltimore mayor Brandon Scott if they were able to consolidate the black vote and win over the white progressives in the closed in DC suburbs. Based on races with similar racial divides (2006/2016 dem Senate primaries), I am inclined to say Franchot is favored, but not extremely so.

FWIW, this is my area of "expertise" so to speak, so please feel free to ask any questions.