2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[Politician]

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

*rolls eyes*

[Politician]

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.

This guy predicted Hyde Smith would win by 20 so he can be safely ignored

[Politician]

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0

I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.