Do the age Demographic changes from 2016 indicate that COVID cost Trump the election
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 01:26:31 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Do the age Demographic changes from 2016 indicate that COVID cost Trump the election		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Do the age Demographic changes from 2016 indicate that COVID cost Trump the election  (Read 1138 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,753


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 15, 2021, 12:13:25 PM »


https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2021, 09:48:26 PM »
Trump being viscerally disliked by 52% of the population cost Trump the election.
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,677
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2021, 11:11:45 AM »
i dont think it made a difference and this research doesnt seem very accurate either
Logged
DPKdebator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 3.65

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2021, 06:04:36 AM »
The shifts in age brackets are most likely a wash overall. If Trump suffered huge losses with seniors he would've lost Florida.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2021, 08:35:24 AM »
The change in voting among seniors was mainly due to the aging out of the silent generation and drop and third party support.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,753


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2021, 11:53:23 AM »
Quote from: DPKdebator on September 22, 2021, 06:04:36 AM
The shifts in age brackets are most likely a wash overall. If Trump suffered huge losses with seniors he would've lost Florida.

There was a shift towards the Dems with seniors though as in Sumter county, Trump's margin went from 39 points to 36. Obviously not a huge difference but keep in mind Trump only did 2.5 points worse popular vote wise than he did in 2020, and in relation to the tipping point state only did worse by 1.2 points.

So even small shifts like that are big
Logged
DPKdebator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 3.65

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2021, 07:03:22 AM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on September 22, 2021, 11:53:23 AM
Quote from: DPKdebator on September 22, 2021, 06:04:36 AM
The shifts in age brackets are most likely a wash overall. If Trump suffered huge losses with seniors he would've lost Florida.

There was a shift towards the Dems with seniors though as in Sumter county, Trump's margin went from 39 points to 36. Obviously not a huge difference but keep in mind Trump only did 2.5 points worse popular vote wise than he did in 2020, and in relation to the tipping point state only did worse by 1.2 points.

So even small shifts like that are big

I know that he did lose ground with seniors, but my point is that it wasn't on a scale large enough to cost Trump Florida. It might've made a difference in Arizona since it was so close.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,919
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2021, 10:26:02 AM »
Quote from: DPKdebator on September 23, 2021, 07:03:22 AM
Quote from: Old School Republican on September 22, 2021, 11:53:23 AM
Quote from: DPKdebator on September 22, 2021, 06:04:36 AM
The shifts in age brackets are most likely a wash overall. If Trump suffered huge losses with seniors he would've lost Florida.

There was a shift towards the Dems with seniors though as in Sumter county, Trump's margin went from 39 points to 36. Obviously not a huge difference but keep in mind Trump only did 2.5 points worse popular vote wise than he did in 2020, and in relation to the tipping point state only did worse by 1.2 points.

So even small shifts like that are big

I know that he did lose ground with seniors, but my point is that it wasn't on a scale large enough to cost Trump Florida. It might've made a difference in Arizona since it was so close.

And of course, Trump did better in Florida last year than in 2016 thanks to the massive shift in Miami-Dade towards him. That shift more than canceled out Biden's gains elsewhere in the state.
Logged
ملكة كرينجيتوك
khuzifenq
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,327
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2021, 10:59:48 AM »
No. If anything, the swings among under-40 and generational crosstabs suggest that COVID almost got him reelected.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,986
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2021, 10:16:28 PM »
Quote from: khuzifenq on September 25, 2021, 10:59:48 AM
No. If anything, the swings among under-40 and generational crosstabs suggest that COVID almost got him reelected.

Is there any evidence COVID was responsible for this shift, though?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.224 seconds with 13 queries.