RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread

[Skye]

Fantastic job, RI, tremendous, yuge.

Despite what FAKE NEWS latino decisions might tell you, it's obvious that Trump on bigly across the map.

[RI]

This was before Carto.com, though - and I never tried putting a similar map up there.  I imagine Carto.com would charge an arm and a leg and/or crash under the server load were you to put a similar map with DDHQ-driven (instead of just Atlas or RRH-driven) traffic up there.

Carto said they'd charge $6000 a month to host the map given the traffic and detail. We had 75,000+ views in the first 20 minutes before the interactive crashed.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Is there a way that you could host an interactive map somewhere else but post it here and not elsewhere so we can use the map?

Anyways, congrats on the project, I bet you're going to get a full-time job working for the Upshot after this!

(This is a ridiculous request but I want the maps!!!!)

[cinyc]

My second article: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/hispanic-heterogeneity-in-the-2016-election/

Latino Decisions called my article "fake news." lol

The Washington Post's article lists their small counties (which, presumably, they considered rural) as Webb, Presidio, Starr, Hidalgo, Cameron, Zapata and Potter Counties.  Of those, Webb (Laredo), Hidalgo (McAllen/Pharr/Westlaco), Cameron (Brownsville/Harlingen) and Potter (Amarillo) counties contain significant cities and urban areas.  Their population would swamp the more rural counties on the list - Presidio (Marfa), Starr (Rio Grande City) and Zapata (Zapata).  So...

[Linus Van Pelt]

Great stuff!

[NOVA Green]

This is exquisite.... a veritable work of art (As well as well a major contribution to the body of knowledge that lends greater ease towards interpretations of election data).

[Crumpets]

Dang. NBC just shared this: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/these-detailed-election-maps-can-show-your-neighborhood-s-vote-n740616?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

I tip my hat to you, RI.

[chronicleiris]

Oh, golly congrats RI look at NBC!! This is amazing. By the way I got your map at a large-scale posted in my room

[Bismarck]

This is a pretty specific question, but does anybody know what's up with that one strong democrat rural precinct in Illinois on the Indiana border up north right east of Kankakee?

[RI]

This is a pretty specific question, but does anybody know what's up with that one strong democrat rural precinct in Illinois on the Indiana border up north right east of Kankakee?

That's Pembroke Township, which is 80% Black.

[Linus Van Pelt]

An insane amount of people online think that election maps are "misleading" because ... the country is not uniform in population density.

They would be misleading if they were used not to look at geographic patterns but instead to tell who won more total votes. But, good news, we've got Arabic numerals for that.

[RI]

An insane amount of people online think that election maps are "misleading" because ... the country is not uniform in population density.

They would be misleading if they were used not to look at geographic patterns but instead to tell who won more total votes. But, good news, we've got Arabic numerals for that.

What's worse is that precinct maps actually do visually demonstrate population density through the density of precincts.

[catographer]

I have to admit though, a proportionally-shaped national precinct map would be pretty cool. Idk how one goes about creating cartograms anyway tho.

Btw, wikipedia says turnout dropped by 0.2% from 2012-2016. Is that true?

[RI]

As I promised, here are the Atlas-colored maps:

2008


2012


2016


2012-16 Swing

[RI]

Looks like the interactive is back up again.

Also, it appears that some numbers from 2012 are wrong in the St. Louis area.

Looking at Olivette, Missouri, in particular, you have majority African-American precincts with at least a few hundred people in them going for Obama by upwards of 70% (some in the 80s) in 2008, then going for Romney by over 60% (some in the 70s) in 2012. I think there was some inputting error here.

Considering these areas then apparently had 60-70% swings back to Clinton in 2016, I'm willing to bet this is the case.

Something did seem a bit odd there. I'll look into it.

[NOVA Green]

This is fascinating stuff, being able to graphically look at the data at a national level, and the swing map in particular both reinforces and simultaneously challenges some aspects of the CW about the 2016 GE...

1.) So, for starters although it is pretty clear that there was a significant overall swing towards the Republican candidate in rural heavily White precincts nationally, as well in in small towns and cities, this phenomenon was by no means universal, particularly in the Western United States, the Southern Part of the Great Plains, the Hill Country of Texas, Parts of Cajun Country in Lousiana

2.) The map clearly demonstrates the overall massive swing towards the Republican candidate in the "Corn Belt" and "Grain Belt" of the Upper and Northern Midwest in many precincts that are properly classified as "rural America", and all the way through huge swathes of Pennsylvania and Upstate New York.


3.) One other interesting item that the map graphically details is the extent of the voting swings between Metro areas and rural areas and smaller towns/cities.

Granted, it is necessary to zoom into the highest level detail and scroll gradually through the United States to see how extensive those swings overall were in almost all large Metro areas, regardless of the Anglo/Minority Population statistics....

Sure, we have an idea from other research that in general many of the highest income areas, even in heavily Republican places swung for towards the Democratic candidate by 15-20% margins.

However, obviously the vast majority of Metro area residents do not fall into the "upper middle class" category...

There are a ton of Metro areas we have talked about on Atlas regarding the Democratic swings, obviously Phoenix and Metro Atlanta spring immediately to mind, as well as some talk about places like Columbus, Ohio, OC California, NoVA, some Metro areas in Texasand a few other places as well.

But, look at Metro Saint Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis- St-Paul, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Columbia, Charleston, Charlotte, Richmond, Louisville, Cincinnati, Kalamazoo, etc... Not to even mention traditionally solidly Democratic bastions in the West Coasts, and Boston.

These areas all swung towards the Democratic Nominee in 2016, in many cases by significant numbers.

It will be interesting to observe if the 2016 trends continue further into 2020, or if this election was just a one time anomaly...

[Tender Branson]

Btw, wikipedia says turnout dropped by 0.2% from 2012-2016. Is that true?

Absolutely not.

2016 turnout was slightly higher than 60%.

2012 turnout was only 58%.

2008 turnout was 62%.

[RI]

Are you planning on finishing out your maps on https://rynerohla.com/index.html/election-maps/ at any point in the near or distant future? I really appreciate the higher level of detail on those static image maps compared to the national map (which while great, still leaves a bit of room for improvement for many urbanized areas).

Yeah, I'll get to it some time in the next week.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Great job on the nationwide map! Is there a chance that you could do a map of McMullin's performance in Idaho?

[Figueira]

You can really see how Clinton's win in Minnesota was dependent on doing not that bad in the rural areas. If this changes in the future, a strong performance in Minneapolis isn't going to cut it.

[RI]

I did another write-up, this time about precinct results and urbanization: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/what-do-dense-trump-areas-look-like-sparse-clinton-areas/

[Gass3268]

I did another write-up, this time about precinct results and urbanization: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/what-do-dense-trump-areas-look-like-sparse-clinton-areas/

Your articles on precinct level analysis on DDHQ have been excellent!

[chronicleiris]

GG. Congrats. Look below
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/apr/10/washington-state-graduate-designs-map-showing-prec/

[RI]

Are you planning on finishing out your maps on https://rynerohla.com/index.html/election-maps/ at any point in the near or distant future? I really appreciate the higher level of detail on those static image maps compared to the national map (which while great, still leaves a bit of room for improvement for many urbanized areas).

Yeah, I'll get to it some time in the next week.

Bumping this request for when your have time.

Here's Missouri:

[NOVA Green]

GG. Congrats. Look below
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/apr/10/washington-state-graduate-designs-map-showing-prec/

If this is our local home town guru--- RI much and well deserved kudos from beyond the Atlas Underground into the mainstreaming world of academia and potential private sector employment if those are your wishes in the future...   

I do have to say that these precinct level national maps are the best value ever, and the amount of labor and detail involved in producing these is simply mind blowing---- and Alcon who doesn't chill very often on the Forum anymore was one of the best when it came to maps and precinct level data.