Districts where Trump coattails almost took out Democrats
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:23:44 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Districts where Trump coattails almost took out Democrats
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Districts where Trump coattails almost took out Democrats  (Read 747 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 14, 2016, 02:14:10 AM »

MN-01

Walz: 169,076 (50.6%)
Hagedorn: 166,527 (49.4%)

MN-07

Peterson: 173,571 (52.5%)
Hughes: 156,950 (47.5%)

MN-08

Nolan: 179,106 (50.3%)
Mills: 177,095 (49.7%)

All three of those should be sweating in their now R trending districts. Trump probably won all of them, MN-07 by a very large margin (Petersen is really talented that he even won by 5). I bet Ron Kind in WI-03 would have had the race of his life too if he faced an opponent.

PA-17

Cartwright: 155,766 (53.8%)
Connolly: 133,719 (46.2%)

Again, its in question whether Trump won this one.

IA-02

Loebsack: 197,802 (53.7%)

Peters: 170,529 (46.3%)

Without the inflexible uber liberal Johnson County, this district would be gone for Democrats.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,611


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2016, 02:22:22 AM »

I think Peterson and Nolan must have realized that Hillary wasn't a good fit for their districts, since they were 2 out of only 9 representatives to endorse Bernie.
Logged
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,211
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2016, 03:07:24 AM »

I'm surprised Tim Ryan still won by a 2-1 margin in Ohio's 13th, considering how Trump was actually able to flip it.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2016, 03:33:21 PM »

I'm surprised Tim Ryan still won by a 2-1 margin in Ohio's 13th, considering how Trump was actually able to flip it.
Ryan has always been VERY popular in his home turf. If it was an open seat, though, a blue collar moderate Republican would have had a shot.
I think Peterson and Nolan must have realized that Hillary wasn't a good fit for their districts, since they were 2 out of only 9 representatives to endorse Bernie.
Peterson, one of the most moderate Democrats, endorsed Bernie primarily because he won his district in the caucus, IIRC.

I'm also curious as to what's next for the MN Rural Dems. Nolan and Peterson are up in age and may not stick around for much longer, while Walz is relatively young and may have statewide ambitions. I'm also interested in who the GOP puts up in those seats next cycle.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,624
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2016, 04:38:22 PM »

I'm surprised Tim Ryan still won by a 2-1 margin in Ohio's 13th, considering how Trump was actually able to flip it.

Was Trump really able to flip OH-13? That's amazing, considering he narrowly lost Mahoning County and the district also includes Kent and a decent chunk of Akron.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2016, 06:38:11 PM »

I'm surprised Tim Ryan still won by a 2-1 margin in Ohio's 13th, considering how Trump was actually able to flip it.

Was Trump really able to flip OH-13? That's amazing, considering he narrowly lost Mahoning County and the district also includes Kent and a decent chunk of Akron.

I doubt Trump won OH-13.  That district was gerrymandered to be a Dem vote sink by taking in African America areas of Akron and Lorain.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2016, 06:42:55 PM »

I'm surprised Tim Ryan still won by a 2-1 margin in Ohio's 13th, considering how Trump was actually able to flip it.

Was Trump really able to flip OH-13? That's amazing, considering he narrowly lost Mahoning County and the district also includes Kent and a decent chunk of Akron.

I doubt Trump won OH-13.  That district was gerrymandered to be a Dem vote sink by taking in African America areas of Akron and Lorain.
I thought the Black parts of Akron are in OH-11?
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2016, 07:04:57 PM »

I'm surprised Tim Ryan still won by a 2-1 margin in Ohio's 13th, considering how Trump was actually able to flip it.

Was Trump really able to flip OH-13? That's amazing, considering he narrowly lost Mahoning County and the district also includes Kent and a decent chunk of Akron.

I doubt Trump won OH-13.  That district was gerrymandered to be a Dem vote sink by taking in African America areas of Akron and Lorain.
I thought the Black parts of Akron are in OH-11?

And it isn't in Lorain at all. It's a combo of white Dem Summit (yes the black parts were largely carved out and dumped into OH-11), plus areas around Youngstown, also taking in Kent State in Portage, plus the town of Alliance in Stark County. There are some blacks in Youngstown of course. Trump probably did carry it.
Logged
AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2016, 09:22:22 PM »

I bet Ron Kind in WI-03 would have had the race of his life too if he faced an opponent.
Do you think Kapanke could have won?  He is getting kind of old. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Kapanke
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2016, 10:00:21 PM »

I bet Ron Kind in WI-03 would have had the race of his life too if he faced an opponent.
Do you think Kapanke could have won?  He is getting kind of old. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Kapanke
I wish he ran for WI-03 instead of his old State Senate seat.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,624
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2016, 04:23:13 PM »

I'm surprised Tim Ryan still won by a 2-1 margin in Ohio's 13th, considering how Trump was actually able to flip it.

Was Trump really able to flip OH-13? That's amazing, considering he narrowly lost Mahoning County and the district also includes Kent and a decent chunk of Akron.

I doubt Trump won OH-13.  That district was gerrymandered to be a Dem vote sink by taking in African America areas of Akron and Lorain.
I thought the Black parts of Akron are in OH-11?

And it isn't in Lorain at all. It's a combo of white Dem Summit (yes the black parts were largely carved out and dumped into OH-11), plus areas around Youngstown, also taking in Kent State in Portage, plus the town of Alliance in Stark County. There are some blacks in Youngstown of course. Trump probably did carry it.

I don't at all follow, looking at the map, how the district can possibly be less Democratic than Mahoning County as a whole (it's Mahoning plus the most Democratic neighboring areas), considering Hillary won Mahoning County. It was certainly reduced to a single-digit margin, but I can't imagine Trump having won the district as a whole.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.034 seconds with 11 queries.