2017 British Columbia election
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Author Topic: 2017 British Columbia election  (Read 65772 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #600 on: May 29, 2017, 04:15:15 PM »


More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #601 on: May 29, 2017, 04:19:13 PM »

Still pretty shaky. I'd call another election in about a year with finish... er, "strong, stable majority government" as my slogan.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #602 on: May 29, 2017, 04:22:48 PM »

Still pretty shaky. I'd call another election in about a year with finish... er, "strong, stable majority government" as my slogan.

Oh, sure, but any possibility is shaky. Anyways, NDP doesn't want an election too soon, they need to fundraise. And NDP-Greens will probably ban very quickly corporate donations, which will even the money playing field between NDP and Liberals.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #603 on: May 29, 2017, 04:30:12 PM »


It won't.
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Barnes
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« Reply #604 on: May 29, 2017, 04:32:37 PM »

Should be an exciting time! Of course, this really depends on Linda Reid actually deciding to remain as Speaker.

Now, does Clark go through the humiliation of having her Throne Speech voted down?
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #605 on: May 29, 2017, 04:34:32 PM »


Saskatchewan NDP made 30-28 last for four years.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #606 on: May 29, 2017, 04:56:27 PM »

Predicted Cabinet
1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, John Horgan
2.Finance, Bruce Ralston
3.Economic Development and Trade, Shane Simpson
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Scott Fraser
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship/Government House Leader, Mike Farnworth
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Katrine Conroy
7.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Adrian Dix
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Lana Popham
9.Environment/North, Doug Donaldson
10.Transportation and Infrastructure/Rural Affairs, Michelle Mugall
11.Citizen Services, Innovation and Technology, Doug Routley
12.Human Resources and Housing, Harry Bains
13.Children and Family Development, Melanie Mark
14.Education/Deputy Premier, Carole James
15.Advanced Education and Training, Jennifer Rice
16.Health, Judy Darcy
17.Municipal Affairs/Translink/Status of Women, Selina Robinson
18.Aboriginal Relations, Len Krog
19.Justice and Public Safety, David Eby

Deputy Speaker, Raj Chouhan (If Linda Reid remains speaker)
Chief Government Whip, Rob Fleming
Caucus Chair, Mable Elmore


Horgan also promised some new ministries, I think one way to keep everybody happy would be to make every remaining NDP MLA either an Associate Minister or a Parliamentary Secretary.

1.Finance, Ravi Kahlon
2.International Trade, Jagrup Brar
3. Economic Development and Small Business, Bob D'Eith
4.Tourism and Culture, Nicholas Simons
5.Immigration and Citizenship, Katrina Chen
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Claire Trevena
7.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Ronna Rae Leonard
8.Energy and Climate Change, Spencer Chandra Herbert
9.Transportation and Infrastructure, Bowinn Ma
10.Innovation and Technology, Rick Glumac
11.Housing, George Chow
12.Children and Family Development, Mitzi Dean
13.Education, Anne Kang
14.Training and Apprenticeship, George Heyman
15.Mental Health and Addictions, Rachna Singh
16.Seniors, Jinny Sims
17.Status of Women, Janet Routledge
18.Aboriginal Relations, Lisa Beare
19.Public Safety, Garry Begg
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jaichind
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« Reply #607 on: May 29, 2017, 04:59:23 PM »


So the assumption is that the Speaker comes from the LIBs ?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #608 on: May 29, 2017, 05:04:46 PM »


The assumption is than the incumbent will be relected (despite being described as sub-par by NDP in the past).
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Vosem
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« Reply #609 on: May 29, 2017, 05:20:50 PM »


The assumption is than the incumbent will be relected (despite being described as sub-par by NDP in the past).

Could the Speaker refuse to seek reelection? Presumably in that case it would be 43/43.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #610 on: May 29, 2017, 05:26:52 PM »

The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #611 on: May 29, 2017, 05:29:01 PM »


The assumption is than the incumbent will be relected (despite being described as sub-par by NDP in the past).

Could the Speaker refuse to seek reelection? Presumably in that case it would be 43/43.

Yes.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #612 on: May 29, 2017, 05:32:14 PM »


Ok, but one by-election and this whole government could come topling down. Actually, what would happen if the Liberals win a by-election in an NDP or Green seat? Would the Lt Governor call on the Liberals to form government, or would a snap election happen? The poor people in whatever  riding that would be...

Reminds me of the Kitchener-Waterloo by-election we had a few years ago which could have turned the Liberal minority in Queen's Park to a majority.
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Barnes
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« Reply #613 on: May 29, 2017, 06:32:48 PM »

A similar situation happened in Queensland in 1996, when the ALP lost its one seat majority after a by-election, resulting in a hung parliament.

If the Liberals gained a majority at a by-election, Horgan could attempt to request the Lt. Governor call a snap election, but the Lt. Governor would be well within his right to refuse and allow the Liberals to attempt to govern.
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Barnes
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« Reply #614 on: May 29, 2017, 06:40:51 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2017, 06:50:26 PM by Barnes »

The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.

And in that situation, it really depends what precedent the Speaker chooses to follow. Traditionally, Westminster Speakers will follow Speaker Denison's Rules to guide them when casting a tie-breaking vote, but this hasn't always been the case in other Commonwealth nations, and some Australian states follow a different model. Regardless, it's all down to Convention, anyway, so we'll see.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #615 on: May 29, 2017, 06:48:51 PM »

The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.

And it that situation, it really depends what precedent the Speaker choose to follow. Traditionally, Westminster Speakers will follow Speaker Denison's Rules to guide them when casting a tie-breaking vote, but this hasn't always been the case in other Commonwealth nations, and some Australian states follow a different model. Regardless, it's all down to Convention, anyway, so we'll see.

The precedent used in Canada is Speaker Denison's Rule.
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Barnes
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« Reply #616 on: May 29, 2017, 06:53:43 PM »

The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.

And it that situation, it really depends what precedent the Speaker choose to follow. Traditionally, Westminster Speakers will follow Speaker Denison's Rules to guide them when casting a tie-breaking vote, but this hasn't always been the case in other Commonwealth nations, and some Australian states follow a different model. Regardless, it's all down to Convention, anyway, so we'll see.

The precedent used in Canada is Speaker Denison's Rule.

Federally, you're absolutely right. Peter Milliken keeping the Martin Government alive by breaking the tie on the second reading of the 2005 budget being a prime example. I wasn't sure about each of the provinces.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #617 on: May 29, 2017, 07:13:58 PM »

Isn't it a constitutional convention? Meaning breaking it would be unconstitutional? Oy vey!
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MaxQue
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« Reply #618 on: May 29, 2017, 07:29:48 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2017, 07:32:59 PM by MaxQue »

Isn't it a constitutional convention? Meaning breaking it would be unconstitutional? Oy vey!

No, it's not what it means, but I suspect the Lieutenant Governor would refuse to recognise a government falling through such a vote.

In any case, I would assume it's a parlimentary convention, not a constitutionnal one. One can argue, however, than such a vote would run against the "clear majority of the House" constitutionnal convention.
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #619 on: May 29, 2017, 08:42:42 PM »

The glorious post-industrial future is finally here.
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trebor204
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« Reply #620 on: May 29, 2017, 08:46:56 PM »

Manitoba 1986/1988

The NDP won the election with 30 seats, the PCs 26 and the Liberal 1 seat, after 1 NDP member resign and one in the speakers chair, the NDP had 28-27 lead in the legislature. All it took was one NDP member (Jim Walding) to vote against the gov't on a budget bill. The next day the Premier (Howard Pawley) resign as leader of the party, and called for election (and a NDP leadership convention).
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Babeuf
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« Reply #621 on: May 30, 2017, 09:57:58 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2017, 10:04:32 AM by Babeuf »

If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #622 on: May 30, 2017, 10:38:08 AM »

If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #623 on: May 30, 2017, 11:01:00 AM »

If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.


We're also assuming that the referendum with have FPTP as an option. If the BCNDP-Greens play this right, and they should! this is the best chance for this, the referendum will be one of what other option do you support. The question should be which system should BC move to? make this a choice between say made in BC versions of MMP and STV (STV has received over 57% in 2005 and 40% in 2009 referendums). This guarantees the province moves to a form of PR. Both parties want this, so i expect something to happen soon as soon as Clark resigns or is defeated.
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DL
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« Reply #624 on: May 30, 2017, 12:01:33 PM »

Any sign of Lotuslander? Is he on suicide watch somewhere?
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