2017 British Columbia election

[136or142]

If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.

The earliest opportunity would be the municipal elections held in November of 2018.  Assuming, of course, that Trump has caused global thermal nuclear war by then.

[Njall]

According to this article that I found, the agreement includes a commitment to an electoral reform referendum concurrent with the 2018 municipal elections.

Apparently, the actual agreement will be released at 2pm BC time.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.

We're also assuming that the referendum with have FPTP as an option. If the BCNDP-Greens play this right, and they should! this is the best chance for this, the referendum will be one of what other option do you support. The question should be which system should BC move to? make this a choice between say made in BC versions of MMP and STV (STV has received over 57% in 2005 and 40% in 2009 referendums). This guarantees the province moves to a form of PR. Both parties want this, so i expect something to happen soon as soon as Clark resigns or is defeated.

Putting FPTP on the ballot was what we did in Ontario in 2007, and it won, so for it to lose, it should probably be listed second on the ballot, and hopefully without a mention of it being the "current system".

If it directly specifies on the ballot that PR would mean each party gets the same proportion of seats as their vote share, then this is the way to go.

Linking it with the municipal elections might be a bad idea, as the electorate in municipal elections skews towards the kinds of people who might be opposed to electoral reform. Having a stand alone referendum is the best way of having it pass.

[MAINEiac4434]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the first time the Greens have been part of a government in Canadian history.

[Barnes]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the first time the Greens have been part of a government in Canadian history.

It is the first time the support of the Greens is necessary to govern, but they won't be part of the Government itself, of course.

Clark will be making a statement from the Premier's Office at 1:30 PST.

[Barnes]

Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.

[2952-0-0]

Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.

She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

[Barnes]

Horgan and Weaver delivered a letter to the Lieutenant Governor today formally informing her of their agreement.

[Barnes]

Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.

She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

Oh certainly. The LG would be almost certainly refuse a request for a new election if Clark asked for one.

[MaxQue]

Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.

She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

Oh certainly. The LG would be almost certainly refuse a request for a new election if Clark asked for one.

She made clear she wouldn't ask one and is ready to become the Opposition Leader, should the likely event of losing that vote happens.

[Barnes]

Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.

She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

Oh certainly. The LG would be almost certainly refuse a request for a new election if Clark asked for one.

She made clear she wouldn't ask one and is ready to become the Opposition Leader, should the likely event of losing that vote happens.

Honestly, I don't blame her for waiting for a vote to happen. As has been previously discussed, Clark isn't terribly popular among her caucus, so I wonder how long her position would be tenable?

[MAINEiac4434]

Clark should really step down; she's woefully unpopular and just lost an evidently winnable election. Not to mention she's about to experience the humiliation of having a throne speech voted down.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

[MaxQue]

A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Doubtful. Losing corporate donations will cripple the Liberal Party.

[Lord Halifax]

A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Not if electoral reform pass in 2018.

[IceAgeComing]

I'm assuming that they'll go the referendum route again; simply because that's what the Liberals did when they tried electoral reform.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Not if electoral reform pass in 2018.

I'll believe it when I see it.

[Njall]

A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Doubtful. Losing corporate donations will cripple the Liberal Party.

Speaking from experience of PC Alberta, the BC Libs should be okay if they have a strong small-donor fundraising machine.

[lilTommy]

A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Doubtful. Losing corporate donations will cripple the Liberal Party.

Speaking from experience of PC Alberta, the BC Libs should be okay if they have a strong small-donor fundraising machine.

As the ONLY party of the right-free enterprise coalition of not-the-NDP... they will be ok, since they are the only option out there really. but they will not have such dominance in terms of money in the war chest. It will be a much more level playing field. 

[RogueBeaver]

Kady O'Malley has a typically excellent explainer on the potential parliamentary crisis. Spoiler: last time something like it happened, (NL 1908), LG called a new election. To me this smacks of King's 1925-6 playbook. As does Solomon on BC Grits hoping to win a new election within 18 months.

[MaxQue]

Kady O'Malley has a typically excellent explainer on the potential parliamentary crisis. Spoiler: last time something like it happened, (NL 1908), LG called a new election. To me this smacks of King's 1925-6 playbook. As does Solomon on BC Grits hoping to win a new election within 18 months.

The issue is than Liberals don't want a new election right away, they would be killed by the electorate for causing an unwanted election.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the speaker's role is more defined by convention, and not by the constitution, then what is to stop the speaker from just siding with the government? Would there be much public outcry? I doubt anyone would care.

[Zanas]

What's the interest of having an odd number of members of an assembly if you're gonna discard one of them completely for majority vote purposes ? It always seemed quite odd to me (pun intended).

[Hatman 🍁]

What's the interest of having an odd number of members of an assembly if you're gonna discard one of them completely for majority vote purposes ? It always seemed quite odd to me (pun intended).

This whole convention is so f'ing stupid, and this whole 'crisis' is exposing it for what it is. Why the hell do we have this antiquated 19th century stupid convention in the first place?

[rob in cal]

  Utopian strategy for achieving PR.  Just have the legislature enact it without a referendum, and none of this Irish style STV stuff, go all out for party lists with a small threshold.  Then after the next election there would possibly be enough new parties and legislators who would have won election due in large part to the new law so that there would be a solid majority in favor of retaining it.