2017 British Columbia election

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Am I the only one who thinks this is really, really bad long-term strategy on the Liberals part?  Wouldn't a new election just result in Green votes in marginal Liberal seats putting NDP over the top with an actual majority?

[trebor204]

Five minute warning

[RogueBeaver]

No decision, LG will think it over.

Horgan arriving.

[MaxQue]

Horgan designated as PM by lieutenant governor.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

[cp]

Yay! Still can't believe it took this long to get a result, and it will be another 2-3 weeks before the official transfer of power.

Out of curiosity, would this count as the closest the Green Party has come to being in government in Canada? I know it's basically just a 'supply and confidence' agreement (to borrow a recently relevant British phrase), but they are likely to exert a great deal of influence on governing for as long as this parliament lasts, perhaps even with a few signature initiatives passed into law.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

[136or142]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

B.C Liberal Speaker Linda Reid was very partisan.  She just didn't vote in favor of government legislation.

[136or142]

By accident I deleted my longer post.

Cabinet Prediction
1.Premier/Federal Provincial Relations, John Horgan
2.Finance, Bruce Ralston
3.Economic Development and Trade, Shane Simpson
4.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship/Government House Leader, Mike Farnworth
5.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Nicholas Simons
6.Natural Resources and Forestry/Rural Affairs, Katrine Conroy
7.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Lana Popham
8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum, Resources, Adrian Dix
9.Environment/Northern Affairs, Doug Donaldson
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Michelle Mungall
11.Government Services, Innovation and Technology, Doug Routley
12.Human Resources and Housing, Harry Bains
13.Children and Family Development, Melanie Mark
14.Education/Deputy Premier, Carole James
15.Advanced Education and Training, Jennifer Rice
16.Health, Judy Darcy
17.Municipal Affairs/Translink, Selina Robinson
18.Aboriginal Relations, Len Krog
19.Justice and Public Safety, David Eby

[Lotuslander]

So the new GreeNDP gov't will comprise:

41 NDP + 3 Green v. 43 Libs. IOW it appears that votes in the BC Legislature will likely be tied 43 -  43 with the Speaker drawn from NDP ranks.

The Speaker has a casting vote to break ties. By convention, a Speaker votes to continue with the "status quo" and let debate continue in 1st and 2nd readings of bills. By convention, a Speaker votes against a tied vote in 3rd and final reading of a bill (or whatever) prior to royal assent in order to keep the "status quo".

Since 1871, only 2 Speaker casting votes have ever been made in the BC Legislature either on 1st or 2nd reading of a bill. Even in Canada's fed Parliament the 11 casting votes made were either on 1st or 2nd reading of a bill. Never 3rd and final reading.

Constitutional experts suggest that in a tied Legislature the Speaker may either bend or break convention. Unfortunately not in BC - it would be breaking the law.

Unlike other provinces though, BC has a statute entitled the CONSTITUTION ACT [RSBC 1996] CHAPTER 66. It is not a "Constitution" per se but statute law, which governs the BC Legislature and government. Speaker convention has been enshrined into law therein.

Section 43 therein is critical here:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bclaws.ca/civix/document/...6_01#section43

IOW all "Decisions" of the BC Legislature - 3rd reading of bills, budgets, etc. must be approved by a majority legislative vote and the Speaker has no casting vote in these circumstances. At all. Statute law here. Nothing to do with convention.

Moreover, BC also has another statute entitled INTERPRETATION ACT [RSBC 1996] CHAPTER 238.

Section 29 is of import in relation to the foregoing:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bclaws.ca/civix/document/...8_01#section29

Further reinforces the fact that a majority of the legislature must vote in favour of legislation, budgets, etc. at 3rd and final reading prior to royal assent - and the Speaker does not have the legal/statutory option of a casting vote thereto.

Section 44 of the CONSTITUTION ACT also provides for the following:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now quite apparent by statute, the Speaker can break a tie vote in 1st reading and 2nd reading of bills, amendments thereto, etc. ... but it is also quite clear that the Speaker cannot cast a tie-breaking vote in 3rd and final reading of a bill or a budget. IOW, S 43 of the CONSTITUTION ACT over-rides S 44. Both S 43 and S 44 must be "read together" for full meaning and effect.

To further corroborate the foregoing, at the commencement of the new Parliament, long time Clerk of the BC Legislature Craig James advised the House as follows:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.leg.bc.ca/documents-data/debate-transcripts/41st-parliament/1st-session/20170622am-Hansard-n1

The BC gov't has not yet passed it's budget for fiscal year 2017-2018 - it is running on interim supply bills, which run out September 30. Ergo now appears the legislature will sit in early September and the first orders of business will be a new Throne Speech and Budget.

Superimpose the GreeNDP gov't upon same: 43 (NDP + Green) v. 43 Libs + 1 Speaker. With a tied vote, by statute (S. 43), no bills can be passed... no budgets can be passed. Not even a Throne Speech.

Horgan will then have no alternative but to visit the LG and ask for dissolution. Prime facie looks like a new October election date is in the wings.

PS. Don't yet know what's driving same but 2 new opinion polls over the past few days have the Libs with either an 11% lead (Mainstreet Research) or a 6% lead (Ipsos-Reid):

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-liberals-lead-post-throne-speech/

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/bc-liberals-go-out-on-top

[warandwar]

I think section 43 just means the speaker doesn't count as a "present member" when determining a majority.

[the506]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle happened, the jig was up.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle happened, the jig was up.

Reminds me of when Dalton McGuinty - who had come 1 seat away from winning a majority in 2011 - appointed Elizabeth Witmer to head the WSIB. Witmer was probably the only Tory to represent an otherwise Liberal seat (she had won it because she was quite popular), so she was a good choice for McGuinty to trigger a by-election to get a majority. Of course the plan backfired, and the NDP won the seat, with the Liberals finishing third.

Will Horgan try to appoint Liberal MLAs to comfy government jobs? Would be a big risk, I don't think they could win any current Liberal seats in a by-election. Perhaps if they could convince the Greens to not also run.

[lilTommy]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle happened, the jig was up.

Reminds me of when Dalton McGuinty - who had come 1 seat away from winning a majority in 2011 - appointed Elizabeth Witmer to head the WSIB. Witmer was probably the only Tory to represent an otherwise Liberal seat (she had won it because she was quite popular), so she was a good choice for McGuinty to trigger a by-election to get a majority. Of course the plan backfired, and the NDP won the seat, with the Liberals finishing third.

Will Horgan try to appoint Liberal MLAs to comfy government jobs? Would be a big risk, I don't think they could win any current Liberal seats in a by-election. Perhaps if they could convince the Greens to not also run.

IF Horgan did this, and like you said big risk, there are a few seats I think the NDP/Green vote could win. (I think it would have to be NDP with green support and no candidate):

*Vancouver-False Creek -> combined NDP/Green vote would have won the seat, if the NDP candidate from 2017 runs again she was very high profile, socially liberal area but wealthy I believe.
*Couquitlam-Burke Mountain -> surprise NDP win in a by-election, and a very close lose for the NDP in the General, combined NDP/Green vote would have won it. Not my first choice since this was/is a traditionally BCL seat.
*Skeena or Columbia River-Revelstoke ->BCL gains in 2017, but traditionally NDP seats. CRR would be NDP with the combined NDP/G votes. Another bonus is that these are rural/interior seats that the NDP need to win back to form a majority.

For a Green win, NDP supporting Green; West Vancouver - Sea-to-Sky, Greens were second here with the combined NDP/G vote would have won.

[Vega]

^
Horgan should just hold a new election if he is going to play games like that.

[DL]

I don't think you can compare this to the Dalton McGuinty situation in 2011-2012. McGuinty had been Premier for 8 years and had suffered a major rebuke when he lost his majority in 2011. He was on the way down and his popularity was plunging even lower after the election.

You cannot compare this to BC where the NDP is on the way up and is the new government with a honeymoon. A better comparison is how a year after the Liberal/NDP accord took office in Ontario in 1985 the Ontario Liberals had already bolstered their ranks by 3 - first of all two NDP MPPs crossed to the Liberals and then the Ontario Liberals won a byelection in Tory held York East.

I doubt if the NDP going to start trying to trigger byelections in winnable seats, but I could see them approaching a Liberal MLA in a very marginal seat with the offer that that person resign from the Liberal caucus and run for speaker as an independent and the NDP and Greens offer to let that person run for releection in the next election unopposed on the British model.

The other thing that could happen is that some Liberal MLAs quit to take jobs in the private sector and even if they represent seats that are unwinnable for the NDP - Horgan could wait up to six months to call a byelection and have long stretches where his margin in the ldge expands to 2 seats

[136or142]

After Christy Clark's stunt with the throne speech, I could imagine one or two Liberal M.L.As who act in some way to make it clear that they won't guarantee their support for the B.C Liberals until she steps down as leader.

[adma]

Yeah, a BC Liberal sitting as an Independent might be a likelier possibility than triggered byelections.

Incidentally, I don't know historical BC politics in-depth, but besides Gordon Wilson, has there ever been any sitting Lib/Socred MLAs jumping to the NDP?

[lilTommy]

Yeah, a BC Liberal sitting as an Independent might be a likelier possibility than triggered byelections.

Incidentally, I don't know historical BC politics in-depth, but besides Gordon Wilson, has there ever been any sitting Lib/Socred MLAs jumping to the NDP?

Other then Gordon Wilson, I don't think so. But there are two who have left the NDP to sit with the SoCreds. In 1975 Frank Calder the MLA for Atlin crossed to the SoCreds, and the NDP candidate who defeated him, Al Passarell, in 1985 switched to the SoCreds. What was up with Atlin!

Something else to think about, with Clark's HUGE shift, what is the likelihood that some of the more right-wing Liberals leave to sit as Conservatives/Independents? It's happened not that long ago here

[Hatman 🍁]

Atlin should never have been a separate riding in the first place. It's basically the Yukon up there anyways, and it has the floor crossing legacy to prove it.

Clark will probably stay on as leader, due to the instability. It doesn't appear that her approval ratings have taken a large hit from all of this. BC is too polarized for that. If she cooperates too much with the government (not likely), I can see a resurgence of the Conservative Party in BC, with some floor crossing.

[Lotuslander]

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle happened, the jig was up.

A very well written paper/thesis IMHO regarding NB Speakers Bev Harrison and Michael ‘Tanker’ Malley from the then 55th NB Legislature essentially corroborating your post...

[Lyle Skinner - Saint Thomas University - Fredericton, New Brunswick - September 30, 2008]

https://tinyurl.com/y9ec68pl

PS. Said paper also acknowledges that BC is the only province in Canada with it's own BC Constitution Act, which I referenced up-thread.

Edited: Link fixed.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Fix your link lotus.

[politicallefty]

It's not related to the election, but do Canadians actually follow British pronunciation and pronounce Lieutenant with an "f"? I saw a video of Christy Clark and I always that that pronunciation was strictly British.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's not related to the election, but do Canadians actually follow British pronunciation and pronounce Lieutenant with an "f"? I saw a video of Christy Clark and I always that that pronunciation was strictly British.

Yes we do. At least, we're supposed to. It's such a rarely used word that most people don't pronounce it properly.

[136or142]

From the article this weekend from Vaughn Palmer, there are eight or nine standing legislative committees and I noticed I missed a couple positions that the NDP could place a minister of state in, so scrap the Parliamentary Secretaries.

Ministers of State
1.International Trade, Jagrup Brar
2.Immigration and Citizenship, Katrina Chen
3.Energy and Climate Change, Spencer Chandra Herbert
4.Technology, Bowinn Ma
5.Housing, George Chow
6.Apprenticeships and Training, George Heyman
7.Mental Health and Addictions, Rachna Singh
8.Seniors, Jinny Sims
9.Status of Women, Janet Routledge
10.Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, Garry Begg
11.Child Care, Mitzi Dean
12.Electoral Reform, Claire Trevena

Legislative Standing Committee Chairs
1.Finance and Government Services, Ravi Kahlon
2.Crown Corporations, Bob D'Eith
3.Health, Ronna Rae Leonard
4.Legislative Initiatives, Rick Glumac
5.Education, Anne Kang
6.Aboriginal Affairs, Lisa Beare

The three other standing committees are:
1.Public Accounts, which is always chaired by a member of the official opposition
2.Parliamtentary Reform, Ethical Conduct, Standing Orders and Private Bills, makes sense to me anyway for a Green to chair this
3.Children and Youth, maybe this can be combined with Education or something

Oddly enough, there isn't a single standing committee for resources or the environment.

Caucus/Legislative Officers
1.Speaker, Raj Chouhan
2.Assistant Deputy Speaker (or Deputy Speaker), Rob Fleming
3.Chief Government Whip, Scott Fraser (already appointed)
4.Caucus Chair, Mable Elmore

If there is another Speaker position needed and another New Democrat needed to be chair of a legislative committee, remove a couple Ministers of State, though I'm not sure which ones, I like them all.