2017 British Columbia election

[Boston Bread]

The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

[Boston Bread]

From my perspective in Ontario I'd be much more enthusiastic if I was voting in BC than ON. Horgan is better than Horwath and I'd be happy if he was a choice that could win here.

[Boston Bread]

NDP are catching up in Vancouver False Creek - only 38 votes behind with 55/93 reporting.

[Boston Bread]

Conservatives almost certainly spoiled the race in Courtenay-Comox for the Liberals; their vote is many times the current margin between the Liberals and the NDP.

Vancouver-False Creek and Maple Ridge-Mission are both within 100 votes with a bit of juice left and the last movement in both seats towards the Liberals; I reckon the Liberals win at least one uncalled seat beyond Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, which is really waiting for a call at this point.

There are ~5000 uncounted early votes in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain. The % of polls reporting is a misleading figure if what you want is % of votes counted.

[Boston Bread]

False Creek's first advance poll strongly favours the Liberals. Bad news if it continues.
EDIT: NDP back ahead in Courtenay-Comox. Advance polling having mixed results so far.

[Boston Bread]

The Liberals just took a huge lead in False Creek. They have a majority.

Back down to 43, due to Courtenay-Comox

[Boston Bread]

Looking back at the 2013 results, even taking into account redistricting, there seems to have been a lot of churn at this election: the net is that Liberals are slightly weaker, but a rather large number of seats flipped, both NDP-->Lib and Lib-->NDP (generally, the first are more rural while the second are urban, but this rule isn't absolute). Swings in a lot of places are rather large. I wanna note the mild realignment, but considering that this is Canada and large-scale realignments happen frequently, maybe not worth noticing?

Sure it's worth noticing. In Ontario we've been noticing the opposite trend with the NDP declining in Toronto but gaining in rust belt-ish areas of the province. And of course this is Canada so it can all be reversed in one election.

It's not a surprise in this case; Horgan made a conscientious decision to do no campaigning in the Interior, focusing almost entirely on metro Vancouver, with one stop on the Island.

[Boston Bread]

This source has Queensborough finished with a 300 vote Liberal lead http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_Party.html

edit: it registered on CBC now

[Boston Bread]

Liberals could win 44 in the end due to absentee ballots from Comox. I guess it depends on if military personnel votes count as advance or absentee.

[Boston Bread]

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This was being put on reddit, is it true?

[Boston Bread]

I feel it's certain that there will be an early election next time. I mean even if Liberals pick up Comox one vacancy will wipe out that majority.

[Boston Bread]

This might be useful for getting a grasp on the Comox absentee ballots: https://twitter.com/darcyriddell/status/862197362210385920

[Boston Bread]

I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if advances change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

Only absentee ballots are left, advance ballots are already counted. Typically there are only a few hundred absentee ballots per riding so only Comox realistically could flip - but note the NDP won absentees there in 2013.
edit: There were more absentees than I thought - 1600 in Comox last time, so they could flip some other ridings, although it's unlikely.

[Boston Bread]

WOW...

Popular Vote:
BCL - 40.36%
NDP - 40.28%

Also, looks like the best results for the BC Conservatives was... Comox-Courtney, with 7.55%

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_result.html

Is this the closest popular vote margin for any recent provincial election?

I think it's the closest since NB 1978.

[Boston Bread]

The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.