2017 British Columbia election

[MaxQue]

(does any other province in Canada even have a surplus?)

Quebec has a surplus (and tons of cancelled trials due to a shortage of judges and attorneys and an healthcare system in shambles, because government cut very deep to get that surplus).

[MaxQue]

Well, such results are normal with such a loaded question.

[MaxQue]

According to the Lascelles conventions and precedents if the legislature rejects Crooked Christy's Throne Speech on Day 1 then the LG must ask the leader of the second largest party to try to form a government and only if he fails is there a new election.

Again, I will defer to constitutional expert Prof. Ron Cheffins from last weekend who has advised 5 (yes 5) BC L-Gs. If the incumbent party is defeated on the Throne Speech, any other potential gov't between NDP/Greens must be a formal accord, in writing, and must have the "Confidence of the House".

A 43 NDP/Green v. 43 Lib + 1 Ind. Speaker does not have "Confidence of the House". Moreover, the Libs would have a 1-seat majority in the "Committee of the Whole" based upon that scenario. Ergo, that scenario is already D.O.A.

The convention only states "having the support of the House". There is no consensus between experts on what it means and one has to assume the L-G will ask multiple experts.

All in all, the final result will be influenced by why Greens vote it down and the personal opinion of the L-G (who will have to choose if there is disagreements between experts on what "having the support of the House" mean).

In any case, being a rancher, I would assume she would lean Liberal in any case.

[MaxQue]

Richmond-Queensborough MIGHT flip to the NDP from Liberals. NDP reduced the margin of victory to ~170 from ~300 with about 1,000 absentee votes counted, and approximately another 1,000 absentee to go. Will find out more in about 40 minutes, when more absentee ballots are tabulated. If it doesn't entirely flip, it might still be subject to a recount though, if the margin of victory goes down to below 100 votes.

Lead is now 116 votes, they'll continue tomorrow.

[MaxQue]

How does 44/43 last 4 years?

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.

[MaxQue]

Still pretty shaky. I'd call another election in about a year with finish... er, "strong, stable majority government" as my slogan.

Oh, sure, but any possibility is shaky. Anyways, NDP doesn't want an election too soon, they need to fundraise. And NDP-Greens will probably ban very quickly corporate donations, which will even the money playing field between NDP and Liberals.

[MaxQue]

How does 44/43 last 4 years?

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.

So the assumption is that the Speaker comes from the LIBs ?

The assumption is than the incumbent will be relected (despite being described as sub-par by NDP in the past).

[MaxQue]

The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.

And it that situation, it really depends what precedent the Speaker choose to follow. Traditionally, Westminster Speakers will follow Speaker Denison's Rules to guide them when casting a tie-breaking vote, but this hasn't always been the case in other Commonwealth nations, and some Australian states follow a different model. Regardless, it's all down to Convention, anyway, so we'll see.

The precedent used in Canada is Speaker Denison's Rule.

[MaxQue]

Isn't it a constitutional convention? Meaning breaking it would be unconstitutional? Oy vey!

No, it's not what it means, but I suspect the Lieutenant Governor would refuse to recognise a government falling through such a vote.

In any case, I would assume it's a parlimentary convention, not a constitutionnal one. One can argue, however, than such a vote would run against the "clear majority of the House" constitutionnal convention.

[MaxQue]

Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.

She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

Oh certainly. The LG would be almost certainly refuse a request for a new election if Clark asked for one.

She made clear she wouldn't ask one and is ready to become the Opposition Leader, should the likely event of losing that vote happens.

[MaxQue]

A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Doubtful. Losing corporate donations will cripple the Liberal Party.

[MaxQue]

Kady O'Malley has a typically excellent explainer on the potential parliamentary crisis. Spoiler: last time something like it happened, (NL 1908), LG called a new election. To me this smacks of King's 1925-6 playbook. As does Solomon on BC Grits hoping to win a new election within 18 months.

The issue is than Liberals don't want a new election right away, they would be killed by the electorate for causing an unwanted election.

[MaxQue]

Assembly called for June 22.

So, electing a Speaker on June 22 and a Throne Speech on June 23?

[MaxQue]

Assembly called for June 22.

So, electing a Speaker on June 22 and a Throne Speech on June 23?

Can't the coalition just elect a Liberal speaker? They have the majority, after all, so they can elect whoever they want (as long as someone is willing to take the seat).

They can, obviously. The tradition is a bit wierd. Everyone is a candidate (but party leaders and ministers) and you actually need to withdraw yourself from contention.

In any case, electing a speaker must be done first. Nothing can happen until it's done.

[MaxQue]

Hopefully, if Guichon calls an election and the NDP, they will play hard ball. Defunding her office and denying access to any event until she resigns and going over every detail of her office finance and prosecute her for the tiniest mistake, a la Lise Thibault.

Her calling an election would be a coup and a denial of democracy. NDP-Greens have a majority.

[MaxQue]

Baldrey: most likely scenario is Horgan being commissioned, 2nd most likely is dissolution.

It's literraly stating the obvious. I don't think there is any other solution (well, yes, appoint another Liberal that's not Clark, but there is no way this happens without Clark clearly asking it and even then, I'm not sure Guichon would obey).

[MaxQue]

Horgan designated as PM by lieutenant governor.