2017 British Columbia election

[Lotuslander]

Before I get into the 2017 BC election, it's worthwhile noting the terrible polling during both the pre-writ and writ period in the 2013 BC election.

Off the bat, Mustel had been considered the pre-eminent pollster in BC for ~ 25 years and has always nailed BC election results. Why? It's a "CATI" pollster - live telephone interview (landline/cell). Unfortunately, Mustel bowed out of the BC political polling scene in 2012 and has remained absent ever since.

So that left the 2013 polling scene dominated by only opt-in online pollsters as well as IVR (robo) pollsters. I have always considered these methodologies just cheap polling junk freebies here in BC.

And how did they do? At the beginning of the campaign, they showed a ~20% BC NDP lead. Opt-in online pollsters Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid had a 8%/9% BC NDP lead in their final respective polls before e-day 2013. And Insights West, in an earlier poll, also corroborated AR/IR results in the same time frame.

IVR pollster Ekos had a 6% BC NDP lead in their final poll and Forum had a 2% lead (best of a bad lot).

That's what fooled everyone during the 2013 BC election campaign sans CATI pollster Mustel.

What's even more interesting are the BC Libs internal 2013 polling numbers during the 4-week writ period. The BC Libs internal pollster utilized CATI polling (again, live telephone interview - landline/cell) for their provincial tracking polls and landline for their 25 targeted riding tracking polls. They also utilized Mandarin, Cantonese, Punjabi, Tagalog, etc. live telephone interviewers to boot. Very expensive stuff but has historically also proven to be quite accurate.

So at the commencement of the 4-week writ period, the BC Lib's internals showed that they were behind by ~7% with a large undecided factor. Within days, Christy Clark's approval numbers exceeded her disapproval numbers and that upward trend continued throughout the campaign. OTOH, then BC NDP leader Dix saw his approval ratings drop with his disapproval ratings increase and that trend continued throughout the 2013 campaign.

Then we get to the 2013 leader's debate and the subsequent "Who won the debate?" polling numbers. The BC Lib's internals had the following:

Clark: 38%
Dix: 21%
Sterk (Green): 6%
Cummins (Dix): 3%

Interesting to contrast the same night's internal BC Lib poll numbers to those of opt-in online pollster Ipsos Reid - a completely different story:

Dix: 35%
Clark: 30%
Sterk: 10%
Cummins: 3%

By Friday, 4-days before Tuesday e-day, 2013, the BC Libs had already projected 48 ridings won - they actually won 49. And their final Sunday night provincial tracking numbers:

BC Lib: 43.6%
BC NDP: 37.8%
BC Greens: 8%
BC Cons: 4.7%
Ind./Other: 5.9%

[Source: BC internal pollster on internal polling numbers (with charts) at Manning Centre symposium on YouTube]

Pretty well bang-on. And that's the value of very expensive/accurate CATI polling.

Since 2012, and prior to the 2013 BC election, no publicly released CATI poll of BC politics has been released except for a rare one about 3 months ago - the Innovative Research poll (CATI - landline/cell) with these results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 29%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 15%
Other: 2%

Also interesting to note that the BC Libs internal pollster had a similar 15% BC Con vote in their internal numbers at the start of the 2013 writ period. What he later found was that 5% had brand confusion federally, another 5% parked with the BC Cons as they were pissed at BC Libs until they realized their vote may result in NDP gov't, while the remaining 5% actually were Con voters.

In any event, i suspect that the 2017 BC campaign will again be dominated by the usual opt-in online panel pollsters (Insights West/Ipsos Reid) and the IVR (robo) pollsters (Mainstreet, Forum, Ekos, etc.).

Funnily enough, when the Mainstreet poll came out a few weeks ago showing the BC NDP leading by ~5%, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer, Province political columnist Mike Smyth, and Global TV political affairs Keith Baldrey all reported that they were told by BC Lib strategists/insiders that they were "happy" with those results showing the BC NDP in the lead and looked forward to more of same.

Irrespective of the BC Libs own current internal polling showing different numbers, I suspect that they want the public to see a BC NDP lead in order to avoid complacency. Interesting.

[Lotuslander]

Now to the lead-up to the May, 2017 election and the respective parties:

BC Libs:

- BC currently has the highest growth rate in Canada;
- BC also has the lowest unemployment rate in Canada as well as the highest job growth over the previous 12-month period;
- just came out last week that BC's budget surplus will be $2.24 billion for the current fiscal year (does any other province in Canada even have a surplus?)
- also the 2nd/3rd lowest overall taxation rate in Canada;

Those are very tough nuts to crack for any opposition party and the BC Libs will run on those narratives. Additionally, the BC Libs will be positioning the BC NDP as "Dr. No" in terms of opposing resource development projects and the blue collar worker.

They have nominated some very high profile candidates and are near 70/87 riding nomination completions. And the media is also reporting that they have an "army of volunteers" and have been holding field organizing schools all over BC. Akin to a military machine.

Finally, as Keith Baldrey reported, while outside the writ period the BC Libs do not conduct province-wide polling... they do conduct riding tracking polls of currently held seats and potential pick-up seats. According to Baldrey, the BC Libs "have a healthy lead" in most of their current seats.

BC Cons:

In 2013, they had a high profile and a somewhat credible leader in John Cummins who was also at the 2013 leader's debate. After the 2013 BC election, they elected a no-name called Dan Brooks who later stepped down earlier this year due to internal party lawsuits. He then decided to run as leader again and narrowly won the September, 2016 BC Con leadership convention. A few weeks later the BC Con board of directors disqualified him. Bizarre. The BC Cons now have fringe party status, no leader, have continued internal in-fighting/lawsuits and are broke. I even doubt that they will be running candidates in 2017.

BC NDP:

- Keith Baldrey has reported that the BC NDP's membership is at an all-time low and that the party itself is running a deficit every month in order to keep operations going. Party donations are also dwindling.

- BC NDP leader John Horgan seems to be invisible in the media and is deliberately eschewing the BC media. Very strange strategy. He sets himself up to be "defined" by the BC Libs before he is able to define himself - straight out of the handbook from former MB NDP strategist Michael Balagus.

- Horgan has also publicly stated that education will be his number one issue during the campaign. Problem is that over the years, and even last week, education has only been a "Top of Mind" issue for 4% - 5% of the electorate.

- The BC NDP also looks to have it's most left-wing platform in 2017 since pre-1972 with massive annual program spending increases... eg. a $1.5 - $2 billion/annum $10 day child care.

- In terms of candidate nominations they are also very far behind, not only the Liberals, compared to the pre-2013 election. Also have noticed that turnout at BC NDP nomination contests has also plummeted in many ridings compared to 2013. To wit, a contested nomination meeting saw 80 turnout last week compared to 192 in the same riding back in November, 2012.

BTW, back in 2013, the BC Libs used an effective "weather-vane" TV ad against then BC NDP leader in terms of his flip-flop against the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning - cost the BC NDP popular vote share seats in interior BC and Metro Vancouver. Even the BC NDP's internal prognosis of what went wrong with their 2013 campaign pointed to the "Kinder Morgan" flip-flop.

Lo and behold, the BC Libs have released another TV election ad yesterday on the exact same theme - this time regarding BC NDP leader Horgan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHPi2wFlUDs

BC Greens:

- Back in 2013, the BC Greens were a fringe party led by the lacklustre Jane Sterk - no media exposure at all.

- Complete change for this election cycle. Incumbent BC Green MLA/leader Andrew Weaver is apparently highly regarded and receives considerable media exposure - esp. on Van Isle with CHEK-TV, C-FAX radio, and the Victoria Times Colonist;

- Weaver is positioning the BC Greens as both federal "red" Liberals and "consistent" in their policies.

- Even more startling is that the BC Greens are recruiting much higher profile candidates this time than even the BC NDP in the same ridings. Have never seen that before.

- Media pundits also have suggested that Weaver will "likely win" the 2017 BC election leader's debate. If that happens, could potentially result in more media exposure and momentum for the BC Greens.

2017 Election Outcome:

With redistribution, another 2 seats have been added to the BC legislature - Richmond-Queensborough and Surrey South. Both are suburban Metro Vancouver ridings and, with 2013 transposed results, would be considered "safe" BC Lib seats. Based upon transposed results, not much change to the rest of the BC ridings in terms of outcomes.

And with the BC Cons essentially on life-support or even dead, I doubt that they will be running any candidates in 2017. We'll see. In any event, three ridings (Skeena, Burnaby-Lougheed, Stikine) won by the BC NDP in 2013 would have likely flipped to the BC Libs without the BC Con candidates pulling vote share. Data suggests that where BC Con candidates ran in 2009 but not in 2013.. the 2009 BC Con vote went almost entirely BC Lib in 2013.

So right there... it appears that the BC Libs are already up by 5 seats heading into the 2017 campaign.

And based upon current data, riding demographics, candidates, likely political narratives, party leaders, etc., etc. my guess right now on the outcome of the 2017 BC election:

BC Lib: 55 - 65 seats;
BC NDP: 20 - 25 seats;
BC Greens: 1 - 5 seats;

Of course, the foregoing is subject to change as we head into May, 2017.

My analytical 2 cents.

[Lotuslander]

Wow. Tough crowd here. Full of factually incorrect statements as well as ad hominems to boot. If ya wanna refute my analysis with data/evidence/facts... then do so.

I guess I will give the last word to long-time Global BCTV political analyst Keith Baldrey:

[quote]The recent week-long summer sitting of the legislature was another reminder that the biggest challenge the B.C. Liberals are facing in their re-election bid may be complacency.

The biggest threat to the party’s hold on government is that those voters simply stay home next spring, thinking the election outcome is in the bag.

Certainly, even NDP MLAs let slip a couple of times during that week-long session about how the B.C. Liberals were going to address a public policy after the spring election – prophesies based on an assumed B.C. Liberal victory.

Adding to the government side’s optimism is the fact that the B.C. Liberal party is awash in tons of cash, while the NDP faces ongoing and very serious financial challenges.

Unlike in 2013, when an apparent looming NDP victory convinced the business community to fork over some major dough to the party, nothing remotely like that is happening this time around. The party is having serious fundraising troubles (it apparently runs a significant operating deficit each month) and party membership is very low. As for the B.C. Liberals, meanwhile, the party’s own internal tracking polls apparently show it enjoys healthy leads in pretty well every riding it currently holds (the party doesn’t do province-wide polling; just the seats that are deemed winnable).

The B.C. Liberal party seems to be in perpetual motion: nominating candidates at a steady pace and raising money at an even quicker pace.

The party employs a number of full-time field organizers, who have been working those potentially “winnable” ridings almost since the last campaign finished.

Throw in the fact that the provincial economy is humming along, plus the historical fact that the so-called “free enterprise coalition” has never lost an election in more than 40 years unless that coalition splits the vote, and a picture of near-invincibility starts to emerge.

http://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/opinion-watch-out-for-complacency-1.2320354#sthash.VxiDW8E7.4ycIo7Eu.dpuf

[Lotuslander]

Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

In any event, why is this thread attracting so many flakes? Either nothing relevant to add or no understanding of BC politics and if there is any... it's at a kindergarten level.

Just look at Tender Branson over at the Austria thread, for example. Always brilliant analysis. Nothing flaky about him irrespective of his political leanings.

Now for some more corroborative analysis of the current BC political scene by a fella by the name of Bernard von Schulmann (respected and well known in political circles) who has been involved in the BC political scene for over 2 decades. A self-described "centrist environmentalist" who has been involved with the BC NDP, BC Libs, and then the BC Greens until recently.

A good"on the ground" analysis of all 4 BC political parties. Worth the listen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtVl0mDfn1w

[Lotuslander]

Ah, Lotuslander: the Mansplainer-in-Chief of BC political psephology.

Hey... completely overwhelmed by your political prognostication and incessant political analysis. BTW, BC NDP has a chief strategist spot available now on Craigslist. Interested?

[Lotuslander]

As a sidebar, for the first time in its history, the unionized BC Buildings Trades invited Shirley Bond, BC Lib Minister of Jobs, Tourism, and Skills Training and Minister Responsible for Labour to its annual convention earlier this year. Widely reported in the BC media and she received a standing ovation. Again. Unheard of. Moreover, the unionized BC Building Trades also invited Bond to speak at the national convention of the unionized building trades.

Moreover, the United Steelworkers (unaffiliated with the BCBT) also has apparent internal dissent with the BC NDP. A leaked internal memo analyzing same as follows:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/308880372/Steelworker-Memo

Very revealing internal matters.

So why is the foregoing happening? The BC NDP, from their perspective, has thrown the unionized blue collar worker under the bus - esp. the BC interior with its resource industries.  Essentially the BC NDP has been hijacked by hard-core enviro elements within Van City proper and on Van Isle. Furthemore, the BC NDP/BC NDP MLAs are spooked by the Weaver led Green Party in terms of the 2017 election.

Unfortunately, no road to a win (on a seat basis) under those circumstances.

PS. See that alot of ON folk post in this thread. Imagine if the ON NDP was led by hard-core T.O. enviros that would reject the proposed mining development of the northern ON "Ring of Fire"? What do you imagine the outcome of those currently ON NDP held seats in the next ON election would be? Get my drift?

PPS. At the end of the political day... with folk worried about their livelihoods, the narrative always reverts to "It's the economy, stupid".

[Lotuslander]

Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?

Sorry. You are nothing but a lying flake. Period. As a matter of fact an NDP troll. Nothing analytical to provide in this thread. How come?

[Lotuslander]

Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?

Because you remind him of his figurative ex-wife who bankrupted him on (to him) frivolous "abuse" charges.  And if the system wasn't "rigged" on her behalf, he surely would have prevailed, as surely as the non-vote-split Free Enterprise Coalition prevails in BC.  Get the picture?

(Hey, I wouldn't say that if he weren't so prone to using that "mansplaining" tone)

And we also have "adma" who is nothing more than another NDP troll.. this time from Ontario... 3 time zones away. Again... providing nothing analytically useful to this thread. Don't understand why both you and "Adam T" are not both banned for violating/breaking clear forum policy/rules.

BTW, "Dumb and Dumber" has always been my fave flick.

[Lotuslander]

BC Building Trades and the Steelworkers are dominated by construction jobs, they are being lured in by Kinder Morgan and Site C. with the NDP taking an opposition to those proposals that is going to cause friction.

I will let the words of a defeated BC NDP MLA, in the aftermath of the 2013 BC election, speak to that:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Off the bat, the private sector creates jobs. Not government. Period. The government just provides the fiscal, taxation, regulatory, etc. regime for the private sector to make the capital investments to provide that employment.

Look, I follow every BC political party to a "T" in all facets on a daily basis. Frankly, I have no idea what you are referring to in terms of "43,000" jobs to be created by the BC NDP in terms of infrastructure. BTW, I am a BC infrastructure junkie  as well... highways, bridges, rapid transit, hospitals, schools, universities, water treatment, wastewater management, etc., etc.

Ergo, I am all ears to the "43,000" new government funded infrastructure jobs that ya describe.

[Lotuslander]

Regarding the recent Kinder Morgan decision.

A November, 2016 Abacus Data opinion poll - Interestingly enough, in a question therein involving renewable energy as well as a new oil pipeline to access new markets via the coast... these were BC's numbers:

Support: 42%
Accept: 36%
Oppose: 22%



22% of BCers are in opposition - some suspect the hemp commerce, granola bar eatin', singing Kumbaya crowd.

PS. Over the years, Insights West has also had a ~21% "strongly opposed" to the KM pipeline. Abacus Data basically corroborates same. Again, a vocal enviro crowd has taken over the BC NDP.

PS. Long time BC political analyst for Global BCTV recently tweeted the following in terms of the foregoing Abacus opinion poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And to those that oppose KM, his take on how they will place their vote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And that's with the BC NDP now opposing KM. Just gotta love BC politics. Always entertaining. No doubt.

[Lotuslander]

I see the ON NDP trolling flakes at it again... posting extraneous or off-topic messages.... akin to a rogue Jehovah's Witness sect. Too funny.

Not one relevant posting on the BC election.  Must be in their genes.

Alrighty then. Back to the BC election.

Yesterday, Forum Research (IVR pollster) conducted its first opinion poll in the aftermath of the Kinder Morgan decision with the BC results as follows (with change from previous months in brackets):

Lib: 36% (-7%)
Con: 35% (+2%)
Green: 14% (+4%)
NDP: 13% (+-0%)

Looks like the fed Greens received a small bounce out of the KM decision in BC by taking the anti-pipeline vote. Logically one would also think that the fed NDP would as well - They didn't.

Yeah, it's Forum. Yeah it's IVR. But still...

BTW, the KM decision was on November 30, 2016 while Forum was in the field one week later on December 6 - 7, 2016.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/e11dd084-82dd-40c6-a969-5ef1c2207675Fed%20Horserace%20Release%202016%2012%2008(JC)_AM.pdf

[Lotuslander]

Have analyzed all 87 BC ridings... but I will zero in on just one Van Isle provincial seat for 2017 (5 similar provincial seats/dynamics on Van Isle).

And that riding is Cowichan Valley. 2013 results:

BC NDP: 40.1%
BC Lib: 34.9%
BC Green: 19.2%
BC Con: 4.6%

This seat has always been a BC NDP stronghold historically.

Now the BC Cons are leaderless and won't have a leader for the first time, during a BC election, since the year 1903. Along with infighting and internal party lawsuits as well as the fact that the BC Cons are insolvent, I doubt that they will even run any candidates in 2017 since the 1903 election as well.

With data to suggest that former BC Con voters would almost en masse vote BC Lib (Kootenay East in 2009/2013 is a good example), the BC Libs would have likely taken the BC Con vote here in 2013, which would have resulted in a very marginal BC NDP (40.1%) to BC Lib (39.5%) win in 2013 - a slim 0.6% margin.

Now incumbent BC NDP MLA Bill Routley has stepped down and it will be an open seat without any "incumbent effect". Honestly, I think Routley saw the writing on the wall and stepped down as a result.

As well, I know for a fact that both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat. The BC Greens have a strong 19.2% base to already start out with:

BC Greens: running high profile Area B Director for the Cowichan Valley Regional District Sonia Furstenau. Sonia Furstenau has received major media coverage over the past few years involving the Shawnigan Lake fiasco;

BC Libs: running 2013 candidate Steve Housser (former CBC TV reporter) and they have already been on the ground campaigning on the doorsteps;

BC NDP: nomination meeting in January and 4 candidates in running - local fed NDP riding prez, local NDP constituency association official, another NDP-linked candidate as well as a fourth;

Nevertheless, the BC Greens Furstenau is the highest profile candidate running in that riding and is also running on a major issue in the riding. And unlike the 2013 fringe BC Greens under invisible Jane Sterk, Weaver always grabs the media spotlight. And again, some media pundits expect Weaver to "win" the 2017 leader's debate, which will result in big "mo" and media attention for the BC Greens.

With other "CATI" data points that I have seen as well, even six months out I cannot see the BC NDP holding the riding of Cowichan Valley in 2017.

I highly suspect that either the BC Greens or BC Libs will take this seat in 2017. Again, overall 5 seats akin to the Cowichan Valley dynamics are extant on Van Isle, which is still always a harder region to predict seats for than either BC's interior or Metro Vancouver.

[Lotuslander]

Speaking of the Kinder Morgan pipeline decision, here's an interesting juxtaposition from Friday: AB NDP preem Notley with her chief of staff Brian Topp. Back during the 2013 BC election, Brian Topp was the then BC NDP campaign manager and part of the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" with then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix. Of course, the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" killed the BC NDP in interior BC and Metro Vancouver in terms of lost seats/popular vote share.

Yet here is Topp meeting about KM with BC preem Clark in a completely reversed role... this time with a pro-KM position:

[Lotuslander]

There is an obvious key difference on Kinder Morgan in 2013 compared to today.

Only difference is that the BC media is pitting the KM matter as a battle between the BC NDP v. the AB NDP, which can confuse voters on the NDP "brand" vis-a-vis KM.

And Horgan's inconsistent positions on KM (along with many other resource developments) will obviously be played by the BC Libs as a "symbol" in terms of jobs/economy akin to the 2013 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHPi2wFlUDs

Just today, former BC NDP premier Dan Miller came out in the Vancouver Sun:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/opinion-ndp-must-learn-that-you-can-sell-oil-and-protect-the-environment

Akin to the 2013 campaign, it appears that the BC NDP fears the Greens in inner Van City proper and southern Van Isle so much (to protect their incumbents) that they have basically written off interior BC and much of Metro Vancouver. Again.

BC Green leader Weaver has been all over the airwaves with his anti-KM message... major Van City talk/news station CKNW, CBC radio, Victoria's CHEK-TV, and on and on the list goes. Weaver is known to be a media hound. Horgan? All quiet. Just don't get it.

[Lotuslander]

Former BC NDP preem Dan Miller's position on KM also corroborates former BC NDP premier Mike Harcourt's  position on KM and a main reason why Harcourt publicly left the party 2 1/2 years ago. BTW, Harcourt was a former Van City mayor and on the moderate enviro wing of the BC NDP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/former-premier-mike-harcourt-quits-bc-ndp-in-public-and-nasty-split/article17751648/

And tonight, Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer is musing that BC NDP leader Horgan may potentially flip-flop again on KM. In politics, if a politician is inconsistent and flip-flops too many times... they then lose their credibility with the electorate. Furthermore, the hard-core enviro wing apparently controlling the BC NDP will undoubtedly also scream at the top of their lungs:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/vaughn-palmer-is-public-disagreement-an-opening-for-horgan-to-shift-positions

[Lotuslander]

Back to the narrative over former BC NDP preem Dan Miller coming out yesterday supporting KM, former B C NDP preem Harcourt quitting the BC NDP over KM, and one defeated interior BC NDP MLA in 2013 blaming Dix over his anti-KM position resulting in major popular vote share/seat losses in interior BC in 2013. The BC NDP, however, did retain some BC interior seats and time for some preliminary analysis of same heading into the 2017 BC election.

1. North Coast (comprises Prince Rupert and Haida Gwaii)

Always a safe BC NDP and the BC NDP will retain same in 2017. Nevertheless, while the BC Libs have always nominated a sacrificial lamb here... 2017 is different. As a matter of fact, the BC Libs have a nomination race here between two high profile locals - former Prince Rupert mayor Herb Pond and Rodney Proskiw, who is involved with many service org.s in PR. Begs the question... why are they even running? Because 3 local area BC NDP MLAs signed the so-called "Lelu Declaration", along with a minority of First Nations, opposing a local $36 billion proposed LNG facility by the Petronas consortium.

Several legislative reporters have also suggested that the BC NDP is committing political suicide as a result of signing the "Lelu Declaration" in the region considering that the majority of FNs and communities back this $36 billion project. In fact, two opinion polls show it also receives broad public support.

2. Skeena (comprising Kitimat and Terrace in neighbouring riding)

Transposed results for 2013:

BC NDP: 47.7%
BC Lib: 43.3%
BC Con: 6.8%
BCP: 2.2% (offshoot of Social Credit/Unity)

Had the BC Cons not run here in 2013, based upon relevant data (2009/2013 Kootenay East), the BC Con vote would likely have gone en masse to the BC Libs and would likely have been a BC Lib pick-up, notwithstanding the BCP vote. I suspect that incumbent BC NDP MLA Robin Austin saw the writing on the wall and decided not to run again, leaving the seat open. The BC NDP have not nominated yet, but have 4 candidates running for their nomination. While the BC Greens did not run here in 2013, they will be running a candidate here in 2017 as well.

OTOH, the BC Libs recruited high profile Haisla First Nation Chief Ellis Ross from Kitimat who is well known, not only opposing the Northern Gateway Pipeline terminus in Kitimat, but also supporting LNG in Kitimat inclusive of the Royal Dutch Shell consortium and the Chevron/Woodside consortium, which are $40 billion and $25 billion projects respectfully. BTW, in attendance at Ellis Ross' nomination meeting was Kitselas FN chief Joe Bevan as well as Shane Gottfriedson, BC Regional Chief of the Assembly of First Nations. Ellis' reason for running for the BC Libs? "The BC NDP is against every development project in our region".

Interesting to note that the polling stations within all First Nations in the riding always vote heavily BC NDP and I suspect that dynamic will change in 2017. Bottom line? Highly doubt that the BC NDP will retain this seat in 2017 and most likely a BC Lib pick-up.

3. Stikine (comprising Smithers and Stewart and a neighbouring riding in far NW BC)

Transposed results for 2013:

BC NDP: 46.6%
BC Lib: 37%
BC Con: 6.2% (endorsed by previous BC Lib MLA in 2013)
CHP: 6%
Greens: 3.5%

Incumbent BC NDP MLA Doug Donaldson, who also signed the "Lelu Declaration", would still have won this riding in 2013, albeit narrowly, even with the BC Con not running. Who knows whether the CHP will run here again in 2017 or not. A large First Nation component resides in this riding and FN polling stations always vote heavily BC NDP. However, various FNs in this riding have signed project benefit agreements with 3 separate proposed nat gas pipelines running from NE BC to proposed NW BC coastal LNG facilities, which the BC NDP opposes. And this riding is also heavily resource dependent in terms of mining/forestry.

The BC Libs have nominated Gitanyow FN deputy chief Wanda Good as their candidate and she is running on the same grounds as Ellis Ross in the neighbouring riding of Skeena - "the BC NDP opposes all development in our region". I suspect that some of the previous heavily FN NDP vote here will migrate over to Good in 2017 and it will be very tough for incumbent BC NDP MLA Donaldson to hang on here.

4. Columbia River-Revelstoke (bordering the Alberta border in central BC)

Transposed results for 2013:

BC NDP: 48.5%
BC Lib:  35.9%
BC Con: 8.7%
BC Green: 6.9%

Incumbent BC NDP MLA Norm Macdonald, who apparently was quite popular in the riding, has stepped down and this will be an open seat in 2017. Again, had the BC Cons not run here in 2017, the BC NDP would have still won the seat, albeit marginally. The riding comprises a mix of tourism and resource development and it's the BC NDP anti-resource development meme that will continue to hurt them in interior BC in 2017. The BC Libs have re-nominated their 2013 candidate Doug Clovechok while the BC NDP have nominated Invermere mayor Gerry Taft. Taft has faced both provincial and local scrutiny of his nomination and he seems to have disappeared from social media ever since. Remember, this riding is a somewhat socially conservative riding:

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/invermere-mayor-claims-mysterious-minority-status-to-win-ndp-nomination

http://www.columbiavalleypioneer.com/?p=18989

Again, for a myriad of reasons, the BC NDP has an uphill struggle attempting to hold onto this riding in 2017.

5./6. Nelson Creston/Kootenay West (neighbouring ridings in southern BC)

These two ridings represent somewhat of an "island" in interior BC and their demographics are very "green". Safe seats for the BC NDP and I suspect that the BC Greens will place 2nd in both in 2017 with the BC Libs well back in 3rd place.


PS. The latest saga on the KM file: Yesterday BC NDP leader John Horgan stated to the Vancouver Sun as follows:

"B.C., within Confederation, has every right to dictate what goes through its ports."

Such politically incompetent and inflammatory rhetoric will eventually bite one in the arse. Seems like Horgan is losin' it. In fact, BC ports are established under the Canada Marine Act and are under the jurisdiction/controlled by Transport Canada. BC ports are entirely under federal jurisdiction. Just common knowledge.

[Lotuslander]

I think you have the BCNDP info wrong?, 5 candidates and Jan 15th nomination. Unless you have something more updated?

http://localeye.ca/2016/09/07/ndp-nomination-race-begins/

I notice that article is dated September 7, 2016 and a 5th candidate is in the race (Tim McGonigle is a five-term councillor for the Town of Lake Cowichan);

I base my info on a blog called "Cowichan Conversations", run by local former BC NDP MLA Richard Hughes, dated about two months later on November 2, 2016, which omits that 5th candidate's name for whatever reason.

https://richardhughes.ca/a-lively-time-ahead-for-the-race-to-be-cowichans-next-mla/

Remember that the BC NDP has a policy whereby when a female MLA steps down, she is replaced by another female candidate. And when a male MLA steps down (as in this case), he is replaced by either a female or a male with some minority status.

As for the BC NDP nomination race itself, always tough to call... but I am leaning toward Georgia Collins. Collins ran for the fed NDP nomination in Cowichan-Malahat for the 2015 race, in a 4-person race IIRC, and was just narrowly edged out by now incumbent fed NDP MP Alistair MacGregor.

Collins is now the local fed NDP riding prez and is attractive, has a good persona and has some profile on a local high profile Shawnigan Lake issue within the riding.

[Lotuslander]

A new Innovative Research opinion poll (opt-in online) is out today on the Kinder Morgan pipeline approval with BC results:

Approve: 47%
Ambivalent: 21%
Oppose: 32% (23% "strongly" oppose)

http://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Leakage-Pipeline-Decisions-2016-Slides.pdf

Again, that 23% "Strongly" oppose KM number is the key figure and has been consistent with other polling over the years. It's a small minority voter pool that both the BC NDP and BC Greens are fighting over... leaving basically the rest for the BC Libs.

CATI polling on LNG, natural gas extraction/production, certain mines, BC Hydro's Site C dam, etc. all show strong majorities of support in BC. Yet, again, both the BC NDP and the BC Greens oppose same and are fighting over the same small voter pool... leaving basically the rest for the BC Libs. These different projects/political party positions are all "Symbolic" during an election campaign.

People typically vote in their self interests and their livelihoods and jobs/economy has always been the key issue (at the top of the list) during BC election campaigns. The mantra... "It's the economy, stupid" always rings true.

Again, with both the BC NDP and BC Greens fighting over the same, small hard-core voter pool... no path to gov't here whatsoever. I just don't get it.

And BC NDP leader John Horgan doesn't need these headlines either (from todays G & M):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-leader-john-horgan-vows-to-fight-ottawa-on-trans-mountain-pipeline/article33318119/

[Lotuslander]

People may vote for their "self-interest" - but the fact is for the about 98% of British Columbians it will make no difference to their self-interest whether Kinder Morgan is expanded or not.

The political fallout from Adrian Dix's "Kinder Morgan Surprise" during the 2013 BC election provides some clear indication about folks voting intentions. Again, the BC NDP lost popular vote share/seats throughout interior BC, the Fraser Valley, and Metro Vancouver. Yep - as a result of KM.

The BC NDP did, however increase popular vote share in Van City proper as a result, narrowly winning Vancouver Point Grey and Vancouver-Fairview from the BC Libs - these seats are inner city Vancouver bordering Burrard Inlet. On the other side of Burrard inlet, the North Shore also gained popular vote share as well. In fact, in one riding, 2009 BC Green voters shifted big time to the BC NDP as a result.

But these minor gains for the BC NDP came at a huge expense for the BC NDP elsewhere. Again, KM was a "symbol" of the BC NDP's preceived anti-resource development, economy/jobs stances. Hell, even in the aftermath of the 2013 election, even John Horgan told the media that the anti-KM position was a "symbol" as such, among others.

KM employs/will employ engineering firms/consultants from downtown Van City. KM requires work camps along its routing as well - Britco in Agassiz, BC in the Fraser Valley and Horizon West in Kamloops, for example, have been major modular work camp manufacturers for the AB oil sands. These guys need the work from KM.

And, of course, the unionized BC Building Trades fully support KM, among all other major projects.

KM was a lightening rod/symbol in the 2013 BC election. Heading into 2017, roughly 5 major LNG projects are nearing the final approval stage (Petronas - 2017, Shell, 2018, ExxonMobil - 2020, Chevron - 2020, and CNOOC (Nexen) - 2020.

You are looking at combined CAPEX of ~$200 billion here. Singularly, each of these projects could be considered the world's largest industrial project. Each includes nat gas pipeline from NE BC to coastal NW BC (akin to 5 KM pipelines).  And major expansion of drilling, natural gas processing plants, etc. in the NE basins. All major employment nodes. All have majority FN buy-in and community support. And CATI polling also confirms majority BC support.

BTW, after 5 - 6 year build-out and after several years of operation thereafter each 12 million/ton installed LNG capacity will provide ~$1 billion in additional revenues to the BC treasury. Based upon combined total build-out of 114 million tons/annum by the roughly early 2030s, one is looking at up to another roughly $8 - 9 billion/annum into the BC treasury. These funds help pay for healthcare, education, social services, etc.

Yet the BC NDP opposes these LNG plants, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas drilling/fracking. Even some mines. A completely different BC NDP than the 1990's version, which was all pro-development. Again, the BC NDP seems to have been hijacked by a hard-core enviro contingent on the SW coast.

The BC Libs have been continually exploiting same portraying the BC NDP as the "No Development Party" and BC NDP Leader Horgan as "Dr. No". The "Kinder Morgan Surprise" killed the BC NDP in 2013... but these major projects brings the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" to a much higher level exponentially. Cannot emphasize "It's the economy, stupid" narrative enough.

Again, today, Ipsos released new KM polling numbers for BC (opt-in online panel/smaller sample size):

Support: 53%
Ambivalent: 21%
Disagree: 26% (19% "strongly" disagree)

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16229

And long-time Global BC political reporter Keith Baldrey's take on it all:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 http://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-how-will-pipeline-approval-play-out-in-b-c-1.4550529#sthash.4CB8NVzm.dpuf

There is clearly segment of people in the Lower Mainland who feels it could be damaging to their self-interest if the volume of tankers carrying bitumen by their homes increases seven-fold.

Oh yeah. I'm certain that a small segment of Metro Van's population is emotionally fear-driven on an oil tanker going down based upon FUD. I'm also sure that the talk of the Exxon Valdez sinking still resonates. However, that ship was single-hulled and captained by a drunk that hit a reef - criminal negligence.

In any event, VLCC oil tankers, for nearly 40 years since 1977, have delivered crude oil from Alaska to WA State refineries virtually on a daily basis. They traverse past the west coast of Van Isle, past Victoria, through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, past Van Isle's Saanich Peninsula/Gulf Isles, through the Strait of Georgia to as close as the CA border - BP's massive Cherry Point Refinery.

Only smaller Aframax tankers depart from KM's marine loading facility in Burrard inlet - all double-hulled. And they will have two pilots on board from the Port of Vancouver right to Race Rock - off the west coast of Van Isle and back. Concurrently, 2 large escort tugs (with high HP engines that can move these puppies on a dime) will also escort these tankers to/from Race Rock. 'Twas all explained in detail on one of Metro Vancouver's 6 pm newscasts the other night.

And still only represents 1% of Port of Vancouver shipping traffic. The only "spills" that occur are from accidental discharge of ship bilge pumps or bunker oil from their engines - not the cargo itself.

[Lotuslander]

If we want to talk about people voting in their self-interest, the BC Liberals have vastly increasing monthly MSP premiums (and BC is now the only province left in Canada with a regressive flat tax to pay for health care) - every single BCer pays that premium and its skyrocketing. If I'm the average BC voters in suburban Vancouver - I probably don't actually give a damn whether a pipeline from Alberta crosses the territory of my province or not - but i sure do give a damn about skyrocketing MSP premiums and the really low quality public services that BC is notorious for.

Not exactly correct. Only about 40% of BCers pay the MSP - those covered under union contracts have their employer pay for same while those with under $30,000/year incomes don't pay at all. BTW, most MSP rate categories are either flat-lined or going down January 1, 2017. Here's CBC news table of the decreased MSP premiums:

https://i.cbc.ca/1.3896658.1481746160!/fileImage/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/original_620/msp-hikes.png [plug the string into your browser]

It's a dedicated tax to healthcare, which brings in roughly $2.5 billion/annum. BC Green leader Weaver wants to move to the ON model - payroll tax/income tax surcharge. Problem is that revenue must match the ~$2.5 billion in annual lost MSP revenue. Furthermore, a good chunk of BCer's who have their MSP premiums paid by their employer would see them now paying additional tax. Becomes a very complex matter.

The BC NDP also vows to eliminate MSP but does not explain how it will do so either.

BTW, based upon 6 separate demographic groups and based upon all taxation (carbon tax, MSP, child care credit, income tax, PST, etc.), BCers pay either the 2nd or 3rd lowest in Canada in all demographic categories.

Now we move to taxation and fiscal management narratives. BC has had five balanced budgets/surpluses in a row. The BC NDP also vows to expand annual program spending, which will put BC into a deficit situation. For example, the BC NDP will bring in $10/day child care. It's common ground that said annual program spending will cost $1,5 - $ 2 billion/annum, which right there will already put BC into a deficit position.

Just before the 2013 BC election campaign, the BC NDP stated that this program was "too expensive - just not affordable" when they were trying to attract centrist voters. This time, the BC NDP looks to have it's most left-wing platform, in terms of annual program spending, since pre-1972 resulting in major budgetary deficits. Feeds into the "tax and spend" BC NDP meme and won't fly with the electorate either.

[Lotuslander]

Another major project in BC, for example, is BC Hydro's $8 billion Site C dam in NE BC's Peace River District - an area of major natural gas/some oil production and wheat/barley fields. It's the 3rd dam on the Peace River interconnected with the WAC Bennett Dam and the Peace Canyon Dam.

It's under construction and expected completion date is 2024 -2025 and has been on BC Hydro's books since the early 1980's.

The federal/provincial Joint Review Panel (combined environmental assessments) completed its assessment on May 1, 2014. It's final conclusion:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca/050/documents/p63919/99173E.pdf

As a background, the NEB has stated that BC Hydro accounted for 75% of net electricity imports from the U.S. last year. In August, BC Hydro had its highest summer one day electricity demand on record. And tonight looks like it may well be BC Hydro's highest winter one day electricity demand on record.

An additional 1 million are expected to reside within Metro Vancouver  alone over the next couple of decades according to forecasts. In addition, major industrial electricity demand is also forecast.

BTW, BC Hydro has the 3rd lowest electricity prices in North America.

Again, BC Hydro's Site C dam is under construction and has participation from local First Nations-owned companies as well as the unionized BC Building Trades and unionized firms non-affiliated with the BCBT.

A "CATI" opinion poll by Abacus Data, from a few months back on BC's attitude toward Site C:

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http://abacusdata.ca/support-for-site-c-remains-broad/#sthash.ZAp732uk.dpuf

The Abacus Data findings were also corroborated by an opinion poll from NRG Research.

Just last week long-time Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer visited BC Hydro's Site C dam in NE BC:

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http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-site-c-so-far-advanced-no-government-would-kill-it

So why would any political party attempt to "kill" BC Hydro's Site C? Because, akin to the KM pipeline, a hardcore enviro contingent on BC's SW coast is against same. The rhetoric includes that the flooded valley bottom "could feed one million people". Bizarre. All treed and some hay farms as the JRP concluded.

Andrew Weaver and the BC Greens have consistently been against BC Hydro's Site C dam, for whatever reason, as they have been on KM.  OTOH, BC NDP leader John Horgan has flip-flopped on both matters. Again, it appears that the hardcore enviro ("Leap Manifesto") contingent within the BC NDP have taken control of BC Hydro's Site C issue as well. To wit, tonight's headline from the Globe and Mail:

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-leader-john-horgan-open-to-shutting-down-site-c-dam/article33344009/

It's becoming increasingly apparent that the BC Libs will "own" the jobs/economy narrative in the 2017 campaign. OTOH, it also appears, for some perverse reason, that both the BC NDP and the BC Greens will battle over the enviro vote... perhaps even battling over winning opposition. Weird.

It's also becoming more apparent that the 2013 BC election was a watershed election in that the BC NDP has been taken over by a hardcore enviro element. In the 2013 election aftermath, one long-time BC NDP insider stated/wrote that the BC NDP finally had its own "COPE moment". One needs to be a long-time resident of Van City proper in order to understand that metaphor.

Concurrently, post-2013 the BC Greens have morphed from a fringe, irrelevant force into something that needs to be reckoned with under Weaver.

The 2017 election dynamics are becoming increasingly similar to the federal 2011 election dynamics whereby the Harper Cons sliced off "blue" fed Libs while the Layton NDP sliced off "red" Libs leaving the Ignatieff Liberals "squeezed" and in bad shape.

In the BC context, it's becoming increasingly clear that the BC Libs will slice off 2013 blue-collar BC NDP voters while the BC Greens will slice off both 2013 enviro BC NDP voters as well as 2013 BC NDP federal "red" Liberal voters with the BC NDP becoming "squeezed", as well, in the same context as the 2011 fed Ignatieff Libs.

Grab your bag of popcorn watching all this unfold into May, 2017.

[Lotuslander]

blah blah blah blah blah from Lotuslander who suffers from "NDP derangement syndrome"... Do you have some special padded cell in your house that is all orange and lined with pictures of everyone from Tommy Douglas to Dave Barrett to Jack Layton to Mike Harcourt where you can go in and do some primal screaming and bang your fists against the wall? What's the deal with you? Did your mother leave your father for an NDP politician when you were a little boy? Were you in love with someone who was an NDP supporter who rejected you? If the BC NDP actually did win the May 2017 election would we have to put you on suicide watch?

Hahaha! Oh man... I almost fell outta of my chair with your comedic relief! As for the rest of your illusory rhetoric... par for the course for the rogue ON NDP Jehovah's Witness sect. Sigh.

Alright then... let's analyze 2 of the 4 Burnaby ridings in Metro Vancouver:

1. Burnaby Lougheed:

2013 transposed results:

BC NDP: 44.1%
BC Lib: 40%
BC Con (Christine Clarke): 6.7%
BC Green: 8.2%

This riding was held by the Libs in 2001, 2005, and 2009. In 2013, the BC Libs ran a weak candidate here and the BC Cons ran a candidate here (with the name Christine Clarke) for the first time in many elections. The combined BC Lib and BC Con vote here would have resulted in a narrow BC Lib win here in 2013 and the Cons won't be running here in 2017.

First time incumbent BC NDP MLA Jane Shin apparently saw the writing on the wall and has decided not to seek re-election leaving B-L an open seat. As for the candidates in 2017:

BC Lib: Steve Darling
- is a well known household name in BC as he had previously been Global BCTV's morning news anchor for 18 years. His nomination certainly surprised and raised eyebrows across the political spectrum.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/former-global-anchor-steve-darling-named-mla-candidate-for-bc-liberals/article32834819/

BC NDP: Katrina Chen
- Burnaby school trustee who is municipally affiliated with BCA (NDP muni farm team);

BC Greens: Joe Keithley

- Known as "Joey sh**thead" with DOA and ran as BC Green candidate in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain by-election;

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/punk-rocker-joe-keithley-to-run-in-burnaby-election-race

Considered a swing riding that slightly leans BC Lib will be quite difficult for BC NDP to hang onto this seat in 2017;

2. Burnaby-Deer Lake

2013 transposed results:

BC NDP: 48.5%
BC Lib: 43.1%
BC Greens: 8.4%

The old Burnaby-Willingdon riding, which the Socreds won many times back in the 1980's (only Burnaby seat that they could win).

The BC Libs held this seat in 2001 and 2005 and the BC NDP narrowly won here in 2009. Back pre-2009 a major high profile issue arose here involving placing a youth detention centre near residential neighbourhood. The BC NDP candidate, Kathy Corrigan (Burnaby mayor's wife) ran with it and won.

Kathy Corrigan has decided to step down for the 2017 election leaving this an open seat.

Now another major high-profile issue has arisen here involving housing that has been on the 6 pm TV newscasts as well as in print media. Involves Burnaby council (BCA - NDP muni farm team) rezoning 1,000's of 1960's/1970's era 3-storey walk-up rental building units in Metrotown to condo towers.

These rental buildings are being torn down displacing lower-income renters - "Demovictions". Interestingly enough, the polling stations comprising these rental apartment buildings trend strongly BC NDP while the condo tower polling stations trend strongly BC Lib.

BTW, well over 100 condo towers are under construction in Burnaby with almost half over 40 storeys in height. Building boom going on.

As for the "Demovictions', numerous protest marches have occurred but the BC NDP has remained silent obviously due to fact that Burnaby council is NDP-controlled. The only political leader attending these rallies is BC Green leader Andrew Weaver.

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/08/22/bc-ndp-ignores-metrotown-demovictions-greens

Now the BC Greens have recruited high profile Metrotown Residents’ Association president and anti-demoviction activist Rick McGowan as their candidate in the riding.

BC NDP: Anne Kang (Burnaby councillor)
BC Lib: Karen Wang (operates 3 daycare centres)

It's a swing riding and one to watch on election night.

As for Burnaby as a whole and just as a curiosity... a few months back Burnaby Firefighters IAFF Local 323 held a large gala attended by the deputy BC preem (who was also presented with an award) and other BC Libs. Surprisingly enough, no BC NDP MLAs were invited. In fact, Burnaby Firefighters are also making major appearances at local Burnaby BC Lib fundraising/campaign events. Never seen that before.

[Lotuslander]

Curious about one thing: You're continuously saying that the BC Con vote will migrate entirely to the Libs, based on like one riding. I don't really see how you can generalize this to the province at large. They could easily vote for a) no one b) another fringe party or even the NDP! The type of 1-1 voter transfer you're talking about almost never happens (well maybe in your one cherry picked example, but not province-wide!)

Good point. I bring the Kootenay East riding up as a general example as in 2009 the BC Libs, BC NDP, BC Cons, and BC Greens all ran candidates here. In 2013, it was the only riding with 2 candidates (BC Lib/BC NDP). Of course I am making inferences here.

Just look at the riding of Burnaby Lougheed in my previous post and change from 2013 over 2009 for example:

BC NDP: 44.1% (-0.5%)
BC Lib: 40% (-7.9%)
BC Con (Christine Clarke): 6.7% (+6.7%)
BC Green: 8.2% (+1.4%)

I believe one can infer here that the BC Con vote came at the expense of the BC Libs.

Many other ridings more difficult to ascertain... eg. both BC Lib vote goes up/BC Con vote goes up while BC NDP vote goes down. But other data to suggest that 2009 blue collar BC NDP voters ->>> voted BC Lib and BC Lib voters ---> voted Con in 2013.

The BC Cons are quite right-wing (now comatose) and more likely to tap BC Lib voters on the right-wing of the party.  Again, having followed all ridings and their demographics over the years my hunch is that the BC Con vote comes mostly at the expense of the BC Libs. Not always of course.

BTW, the 2013 BC Con candidates in Kamloops-South Thompson (RCMP officer) and in Burnaby North (businessman), for example, have shifted their support over to the BC Libs.

OTOH, the BC Greens are a completely different story. For example, in the Greater Victoria ridings in total, the BC Greens took more 2009 BC Lib votes here than 2009 BC NDP votes in 2013. Yet cross the Malahat Pass into the Cowichan Valley riding the BC Greens gained about 8% in 2013 while the BC NDP dropped by about the same amount over 2009.

And in 2013 there were 24 ridings that the BC Greens did not run but they did run in 2009. Some may think that the 2009 BC Green vote would have shifted over to the BC NDP. Not correct. In fact, in 18 of those 24 ridings the BC NDP vote actually fell:

http://public.tableau.com/profile/cskelton#!/vizhome/GreenPartySplit/Dashboard1

[copy link and place into your browser]

[Lotuslander]

So back on topic...

I really dislike the new Liberal plan to lend homeowners a down payment. Just a terrible idea.

My initial reaction as well. The earlier 15% additional foreigners sales tax in Metro Vancouver was a populist move. The vast majority of BCers agreed with same. The subsequent Metro Vancouver real estate sales data confirmed the negative impact as expected. Then the BC Libs announced other housing initiatives such as a major social/rental housing initiative in conjunction with munis and the feds. Still, will take years before same is completed. All politics of course.

So when the recent initiative came out about assisting first-time home-buyers... first thing that sprang to my mind was WTF? The Metro Van market is cooling and the last thing it needs is another impetus on the demand side.

Hell, over two years ago, the market had peaked wayyyyyyy too much. Then another bizarre 30% - 40% increase in real estate values over the past year. Again, most was in the SFD market yet it impacted all sectors.

Now the media on the local 6 pm newscasts, as well as in print, report upon millennials that are either childless or with children that qualify for the new stringent CMHC mortgage rules but still are unable to save up enough for their down payment due to the vastly increased RE prices over the past few years.

That's tough. Because their current rental payments pay for their landlord's mortgage instead of their own.  I personally learnt that lesson myself when I was about 20.

Then I begin to think that alot of cheaper, older apartment condos or even townhouses are extant in the 'burbs for them to purchase. Moreover, the current Metro Vancouver apartment rental vacancy rate is almost nil and that would also free up rental units.

Alot of knee-jerk reaction and I still need time to digest and analyze the matter.

And tonight the Vancouver Sun is reporting that the exact same BC down-payment program was extant, for about 35 years, from the early 1950's, under then Socred premier WAC Bennett, continued under the BC NDP Barrett years (1972 - 1975) but was then ended by Socred premier Vander Zalm in the late 1980's:

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http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-s-new-second-mortgage-program-is-an-old-socred-idea-with-new-money

And I will leave the final take to BC's political media analysts (Keith Baldrey - Global BC, Gary Mason - G & M, Mike Smyth - The Province) on Twitter:

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[/quote]

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[/quote]

[Lotuslander]

Agreed. My uncle teaches econ at UBC, has a quote about it here.

Is he T.D.? If so, he is relatively new to the Metro Van region but enjoys talking to the media. I like him. However, I also tend to disagree with him on many matters. BTW, a few months back, by fluke, I was online and T.D. tweeted out that he requested assistance on a background matter as he was about to appear on TV to discuss same within an hour. So I obliged and forwarded him some Cansim tables from Statscan on the relevant subject matter. And off he went.

If he is T.S., I have had considerable respect for him over the past decade plus.

Irrespective of the foregoing, I have had always the utmost respect in BC for the senior economist of the BC Central Credit Union (now known as Central 1 Credit Union).  Bryan Yu fills those shoes these days while his predecessor was Helmut Pastrick.