2017 British Columbia election

[Vosem]

Libs now up 18-11.

48%-35%-16% in the popular vote.

[Vosem]

Libs lead 31-22-2. Greens ahead in Saanich North, but I don't see where else. Nothing in yet from Oak Bay.

Kelowna is the first seat to be called -- for the Liberals. At the federal level, this is a longtime safe Reform/Conservative seat that was picked up by the Trudeau Liberals in 2015, recording a much greater swing than most of the region, in what was definitely the most impressive Lib win in BC, and one of the most impressive nationwide

EDIT: With the update, Libs up 39-27-0. NDP now ahead in Saanich North, by 10 votes

[Vosem]

Amusingly, the riding of North Island is currently an exact tie between the Libs and NDP.

EDIT: Vancouver-Quilchena called for the Libs. Very safe seat (went 64-25 for Libs in 2013). Kelowna, the other called seat, was 57-25 back then. Current lead in Vancouver-Quilchena, 58-25

[Vosem]

45 Libs, 28 NDP, 1 Green. 47%-35%-15%. Clearly a Liberal victory here.

Greens currently lead NDP in Saanich North 37-34. Libs far behind there.

EDIT: First NDP call of the night in Powell River. Libs receive calls in Abbotsford, Vancouver-Quilchena, Kelowna-Lake Country (which I mistakenly abbreviated to just Kelowna earlier), and Kelowna-Mission

[Vosem]

Libs win Surrey-White Rock. NDP wins Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.

In terms of leads, Liberal 40, NDP 34, Greens 1 (tightening). In terms of called seats, Libs lead NDP 5-2. Popular vote is 46%-36%-15%.

EDIT: Libs win Delta South. NDP wins Surrey-Walley.

[Vosem]

First poll in Saanich South has the Greens and NDP exactly tied. Looks like Greens may emerge with a couple of seats on the island once all this is said and done (still nothing in at all from Oak Bay, their 2013 victory).

Getting tired of reporting exact seats since so many are coming in, but Libs lead NDP 9-4 in terms of calls, none of which are remarkable. 42Lib-35NDP-1Green seat leads. 45%-37%-15% PV.

EDIT: One notable call -- the first seat called on the island, Mid Island, is for the NDP. Alberni-Pacific Rim, the seat it is descended from, is fairly NDP, but still notable as the Greens cut into their vote on the Island.

[Vosem]

Liberals have a large lead right now in called seats and the popular vote, but the total seat count in terms of leads is actually fairly close. NDP seem to have a lot of fairly safe seats, the 2001 wipe-out notwithstanding.

[Vosem]

The seat lead is 42-40-1 for the Libs right now (with 2 seats still entirely out), even as they lead 45%-37%-15% on the popular vote.

[Vosem]

Libs lead 26-13 in called seats and 44%-38% in popular vote, but the seat count is tied 41-41.

[Vosem]

What are they smoking in Oak Bay-Gordon Head?

[Vosem]

I can't begin to fathom why 15% of the voters would cast a useless vote for the Greens when NDP is an available alternative. Canada is just weird sometimes.

Desire for a centrist (or center-left) alternative? The Greens are seen as being to the right of the NDP in a Canadian context, and the NDP might be seen as far from the median BC voter; lots of people may want to vote for a leftier government, or against the Liberals, but not feel comfortable voting for the NDP. Their last term in government in BC, from 1991-2001, was also widely seen as a disaster that left them with just 2 seats in the Assembly, and they've never really quite recovered.

[Vosem]

Libs up 43-42-2 in seat leads. Just 14 seats left to call; Libs up 42.1%-39.2% in the popular vote. Considering the late votes seem to be more NDP-favorable, looks like we could very well have a wrong-winner situation on our hands

[Vosem]

Greens taking the lead in Cowichan Valley. Overall score is 42-42-3; called seats are at 40-37-2. Liberals probably slightly likelier to win, but NDP still in the hunt; will virtually certainly be a minority government either way.

[Vosem]

What happens if there is a tie? Do one of the parties do a formal coalition with the Greens? Is there a revote? Could someone pull a David Emerson and switch sides? Does Clark remain in office on inertia?

[Vosem]

Cowichan Valley called for the Greens! 3 seats confirmed.

4 seats left uncalled, all Liberal-NDP marginals, Liberals currently lead just 1. If they win:
3-4, they get a majority government
2, they get a minority government
1, they probably get a minority government but much wrangling ensues
0, the NDP win a minority government

Interesting fact: if the NDP carry Vancouver-False Creek, one of the four uncalled marginals left, they will elect Morgane Oger, who will be the first openly transgender MLA in Canadian history, in any province.

[Vosem]

Conservatives almost certainly spoiled the race in Courtenay-Comox for the Liberals; their vote is many times the current margin between the Liberals and the NDP.

Vancouver-False Creek and Maple Ridge-Mission are both within 100 votes with a bit of juice left and the last movement in both seats towards the Liberals; I reckon the Liberals win at least one uncalled seat beyond Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, which is really waiting for a call at this point.

[Vosem]

Is there a link to the results?

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/bc-election-live-election-results-map/

If the final results in both Maple Ridge-Mission and Courtenay-Comox are pushing those seats to the Liberals, then a majority is still possible: winning 3/4 of the current uncalled seats is all it would take. They can afford to lose one (presumably, Vancouver-False Creek looks like the best bet for the NDP of the current seats, which has the added benefit for them of being a HISTORIC result).

[Vosem]

NDP increase lead in Maple Ridge-Mission, but Liberals have somehow snuck through in Vancouver-False Creek. Current numbers are 44-40-3; which would be a narrow majority for Clark.

EDIT: Courtenay-Comox flipped back, so we're down to 43-41-3; a minority government. NDP can still form a minority if the absentee vote for them is strong enough to carry all 4 seats that are in doubt.

[Vosem]

Nothing left but False Creek; Libs up ~400 votes with 3 polls to go. Looks like it'll be a Liberal minority, though of course absentee voting was much higher than usual this time around and we may get some surprises.

[Vosem]

Looking back at the 2013 results, even taking into account redistricting, there seems to have been a lot of churn at this election: the net is that Liberals are slightly weaker, but a rather large number of seats flipped, both NDP-->Lib and Lib-->NDP (generally, the first are more rural while the second are urban, but this rule isn't absolute). Swings in a lot of places are rather large. I wanna note the mild realignment, but considering that this is Canada and large-scale realignments happen frequently, maybe not worth noticing?

[Vosem]

How does 44/43 last 4 years?

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.

So the assumption is that the Speaker comes from the LIBs ?

The assumption is than the incumbent will be relected (despite being described as sub-par by NDP in the past).

Could the Speaker refuse to seek reelection? Presumably in that case it would be 43/43.