Democrats will lose in 2020

[Mr. Smith]

Yeah, because half the party thinks these swing white voters will enthusiastically vote for a movement socialist.

They will if said "socialist" makes his case.

[Figueira]

Yeah, because half the party thinks these swing white voters will enthusiastically vote for a movement socialist.

Politics does not operate on the linear scale that you think it does.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Okay.

[Figueira]

I'm not necessarily saying that Sanders would win, but "His Economic score is less than -5, therefore he can't win!" is a terrible argument.

[Person Man]

I'm not necessarily saying that Sanders would win, but "His Economic score is less than -5, therefore he can't win!" is a terrible argument.

I always wanted to know at what score, certain controversial positions would exceed 50% support...but that seems a fool's errand.

[BaldEagle1991]

It will depend on his approval rating. If Trump becomes super unpopular than he will be primaried, and history has shown and incumbent president that gets seriously primaried the opposing party wins.

[swky_0rn]

The democrats are going to win so much they will tire of winning.

[DS0816]

Calling it right now, the Democratic Party will not win back the White House in 2020. It just won't happen.

If the Democrats continue to be The Republican Party, Part II, there is no reason they would deserve to be re-empowered with the presidency.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I thinks Republicans should loose 2020 for the sake of their Party. In 2024 demographics would have catch up with them in Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and maybe South Carolina could flip to the Dems. Republican need to loose 2020 so they can learn to do better with minorities before it's to late. I don't see how the Republican party can last going into 2020s at it current state without a significant share of the minority vote. I also don't see how they decrease minority turnout without stepping into Jim Crow territory. 

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Since 1992 the Dems won the popular vote 6 times to GOP 1.  Regression toward the mean seems to indicate GOP should win the popular vote in 2020 which also means GOP wins.  That is if one believes in regression toward the mean for elections. 

You're trying to use statistical concepts that either don't exist or are applied incorrectly. There is no "law of averages", and historical means are of limited use when predicting future outcomes, particularly when the sample size is small.

[5280]

Pick a pro-life, tax cuts, pro business and anti illegal immigration Democrat, I will vote for him/her.

[Figueira]

Since 1992 the Dems won the popular vote 6 times to GOP 1.  Regression toward the mean seems to indicate GOP should win the popular vote in 2020 which also means GOP wins.  That is if one believes in regression toward the mean for elections. 

There's no magical force causing the two parties to average out, especially when you're talking about the popular vote which, while morally important, has no bearing on who actually becomes President.

[Penelope]

Pick a pro-life, tax cuts, pro business and anti illegal immigration Democrat, I will vote for him/her.

OK, here:

[Person Man]

Pick a pro-life, tax cuts, pro business and anti illegal immigration Democrat, I will vote for him/her.

OK, here:

Yeah. That is pretty much what Trump is. Outside of personhood, unions, the environment, taxes, and civil rights, he is a Democrat.

Though who knows what he will do with personhood. He probably has participated in abortion and used the excuse of a friend developing a good relationship with an accidental child as the reasons of him supporting personhood. He claimed this just two years before his first contemplated run in 2012.
The other things are pretty much set in stone, though. And who knows about the war thing. He has nominated a neocon cabinet and talks about colonizing our enemies after theoretical wars by "taking their oil" but was elected through the rigging of the election by foreign powers in exchange of promises of a policy of appeasement towards them. 

However, he is a Democrat through and through on tariffs, globalization, LBGTQ issues, and still says things good things about PP even during the primaries. 

[/]

Since 1992 the Dems won the popular vote 6 times to GOP 1.  Regression toward the mean seems to indicate GOP should win the popular vote in 2020 which also means GOP wins.  That is if one believes in regression toward the mean for elections.  

But by 2020, Republicans will have held the House for 5/5 cycles. Democrats are sure to take it back!

[Figueira]

Since 1992 the Dems won the popular vote 6 times to GOP 1.  Regression toward the mean seems to indicate GOP should win the popular vote in 2020 which also means GOP wins.  That is if one believes in regression toward the mean for elections.  

But by 2020, Republicans will have held the House for 5/5 cycles. Democrats are sure to take it back!

This assumes that they keep the House in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reapportionment happens in 2020 and there will be a huge population boom of Latinos in the Sunbelt states.  I reckon that Dems will have a good night in 2018 and in 2020.

[pbrower2a]

Rigged election, 2020:

[Bootes Void]

Well this didnt age well either, but it was close

[AGA]

We have no idea what things will be like in 2020.

This was an understatement.