latest Betfair odds

[Panhandle Progressive]

Why is Pence so high lol, there's no chance he wins if Trump is impeached and no chance he runs if Trump isn't.

I agree. But also:
If Trump is impeached, Pence would likely feel the need to perform his religious duty and pardon the former president. If Pence were to be nominated after that...we'd have the 1976 presidential all over again. Regardless of the nominee, 2020 should end badly for the Republican Party. Nobody likes a constant drama queen (The 24/7 Trump Reality Show) or his flunky who never had a chance to be in a similar position without riding the maga coattails into office.

[LabourJersey]

Biden won't run if Booker or Harris runs and Sanders won't run if Warren runs. Harris and Warren are unlikely to both run.

I'd agree with this, mostly b/c I'm very confident Booker and/or Harris will run and Biden won't.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders in the lead now for the Democratic nomination:

Sanders 16.7
Harris 15.4
Biden 15.2
Warren 13.9
Gillibrand 7.8
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 16.1
Kasich 6.6

[Mr. Morden]

Dem. nomination:

Sanders 17.9
Harris 16.1
Biden 14.7
Warren 11.6
Gillibrand 8.1
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Klobuchar 4.2
Hickenlooper 3.8

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sanders, Harris, Gillibrand, and Klobuchar are up. Rest either down or the same.

[here2view]

Dem. nomination:

Sanders 17.9
Harris 16.1
Biden 14.7
Warren 11.6
Gillibrand 8.1
Booker 5.7
M. Obama 5.7
Winfrey 4.8
Klobuchar 4.2
Hickenlooper 3.8

I agree with pretty much this, except Oprah and Michelle Obama are too high (both are not running.)

[The Mikado]

Why is Pence so high lol, there's no chance he wins if Trump is impeached and no chance he runs if Trump isn't.

The chance that Trump just drops dead of a heart attack and Pence runs in 2020 as incumbent president without the tarnish of a removed President needs to be taken into account.

[Glenmore]

Not a great system as Clinton, Kaine, and Michelle aren't running

[Glenmore]

No Tulsi Gabbard? Surprised she's not on there somewhere.

A representative won't win the nomination, she probably won't even be considered a VP choice

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nomination:

Sanders 17.9
Harris 16.7
Biden 14.7
Warren 11.4
Gillibrand 7.5
Winfrey 6.4
Booker 6.0
M. Obama 4.5
Hickenlooper 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0
Newsom 4.0

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 16.7
Kasich 6.6
Ryan 4.3

Four years ago at about this time:

Dems

Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.5
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.5

GOP

Rubio 16.3
Bush 14.5
Paul 10.9
Christie 10.7
Walker 6.5
Cruz 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.8
Palin 23.2
Thune 20.0
Pawlenty 10.0
Huckabee 7.9
Paul 4.4

[henster]

Democratic nomination:

Sanders 17.9
Harris 16.7
Biden 14.7
Warren 11.4
Gillibrand 7.5
Winfrey 6.4
Booker 6.0
M. Obama 4.5
Hickenlooper 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0
Newsom 4.0

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 16.7
Kasich 6.6
Ryan 4.3

Four years ago at about this time:

Dems

Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.5
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.5

GOP

Rubio 16.3
Bush 14.5
Paul 10.9
Christie 10.7
Walker 6.5
Cruz 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.8
Palin 23.2
Thune 20.0
Pawlenty 10.0
Huckabee 7.9
Paul 4.4

Maddening people like Oprah, Michelle, and Newsom are even included.

[ursulahx]

If Pence were to be nominated after that...we'd have the 1976 presidential all over again. Regardless of the nominee, 2020 should end badly for the Republican Party.

Ford nearly won that election, remember.

[BlueSwan]

Democratic nomination:

Sanders 17.9
Harris 16.7
Biden 14.7
Warren 11.4
Gillibrand 7.5
Winfrey 6.4
Booker 6.0
M. Obama 4.5
Hickenlooper 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0
Newsom 4.0

Soooo....

"Establishment" (Harris, Biden, Gillibrand, Booker, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Newsom): 53,1%
"Left wing/progressive" (Sanders, Warren): 29,3%
"Obscure"/"Celebrity" (Winfrey, Obama): 10,9%

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Democratic nomination:

Sanders 17.9
Harris 16.7
Biden 14.7
Warren 11.4
Gillibrand 7.5
Winfrey 6.4
Booker 6.0
M. Obama 4.5
Hickenlooper 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0
Newsom 4.0

Soooo....

"Establishment" (Harris, Biden, Gillibrand, Booker, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Newsom): 53,1%
"Left wing/progressive" (Sanders, Warren): 29,3%
"Obscure"/"Celebrity" (Winfrey, Obama): 10,9%

Soooo... your point is the establishment will win and the left wing is screwed?

[Mr. Morden]

Biden in the lead for the Dem. nomination now….

Democratic nomination:

Biden 18.2
Harris 16.7
Sanders 16.1
Warren 10.0
Booker 8.8
Gillibrand 8.1
Winfrey 6.2
M. Obama 4.3
Hickenlooper 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0
Newsom 4.0

Republican nomination:

Trump 63.6
Pence 15.1
Kasich 5.7
Haley 5.6
Ryan 4.3

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders back in the lead for the Dem. nomination….

Democratic nomination:

Sanders 20.1
Biden 18.0
Harris 16.8
Warren 12.8
Gillibrand 9.5
Booker 7.0
Winfrey 6.4
Brown 5.3

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 14.7

Four years ago at about this time:

Dems

Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.2
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.0

GOP

Bush 20.0
Rubio 16.8
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 4.5

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

This time four years ago on Intrade:

Romney 24.7
Palin 22.4
Thune 16.5
Gingrich 7.9
Pawlenty 7.5
Paul 6.0

[Rhenna]

Sanders back in the lead for the Dem. nomination….

Democratic nomination:

Sanders 20.1
Biden 18.0
Harris 16.8
Warren 12.8
Gillibrand 9.5
Booker 7.0
Winfrey 6.4
Brown 5.3

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 14.7

Four years ago at about this time:

Dems

Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.2
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.0

GOP

Bush 20.0
Rubio 16.8
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 4.5

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

This time four years ago on Intrade:

Romney 24.7
Palin 22.4
Thune 16.5
Gingrich 7.9
Pawlenty 7.5
Paul 6.0

Why was Thune so high for 2012?

[Mr. Morden]

Latest trading has everyone on the Democratic side dropping except Gabbard and Michelle Obama.  Trump gains on the GOP side….

Democratic nomination:

Harris 15.2
Sanders 11.9
Biden 11.6
Warren 10.5
Gillibrand 6.8
Gabbard 6.2
M. Obama 5.3
Booker 4.8
Winfrey 4.5
Hickenlooper 3.4
Delaney 2.9
Brown 2.6
Garcetti 2.6
Newsom 2.6
H. Clinton 2.5
Castro 2.2
Cuomo 1.9

Republican nomination:

Trump 80.0
Pence 11.9
Kasich 4.5

Republican #s from four years ago:

Bush 18.6
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Cruz 6.4
Walker 6.4
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3
Romney 3.3
Jindal 3.1

Eight years ago on Intrade:

Romney 24.1
Palin 16.3
Thune 13.2
Gingrich 12.0
Pawlenty 10.6
Huckabee 4.7
Jeb Bush 4.3
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Jindal 2.2

[BlueSwan]

Democratic nomination:

Sanders 17.9
Harris 16.7
Biden 14.7
Warren 11.4
Gillibrand 7.5
Winfrey 6.4
Booker 6.0
M. Obama 4.5
Hickenlooper 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0
Newsom 4.0

Soooo....

"Establishment" (Harris, Biden, Gillibrand, Booker, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Newsom): 53,1%
"Left wing/progressive" (Sanders, Warren): 29,3%
"Obscure"/"Celebrity" (Winfrey, Obama): 10,9%

Soooo... your point is the establishment will win and the left wing is screwed?

Not really. I don't take betting odds too seriously. Especially not this far out. Just did the math.

[pbrower2a]

Wow. Trump at just 28? That's probably where he was... right before election night. Great.

Add the 10.0% chance that Donald Trump dies in office and Pence becomes President, that he decides to not run for re-election, and you get a 38.2% chance that either Trump or Pence will win the 2020 Presidential elections.

Incumbency has its advantages. 

On the other hand that means that the Democrats have a 61.8% chance of winning the Presidency in 2020. It's still early.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren now tied with Harris for the lead for the Dem. nomination.

Democratic nomination:

Harris 15.4
Warren 15.4
Sanders 12.2
Biden 11.9
Patrick 8.1
Newsom 7.5
Gabbard 6.6
Gillibrand 6.2
Booker 5.9
M. Obama 5.3

Republican nomination:

Trump 73.3
Pence 11.6
Kasich 6.6
Haley 4.2
Romney 3.4

Republican #s four years ago:

Rubio 15.8
Bush 11.9
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Cruz 6.4
Romney 6.4
Walker 5.4
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 3.1
Perry 2.9

Eight years ago on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2628582#msg2628582

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Twelve years ago on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=40420.msg966748#msg966748

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[Mr. Morden]

Harris alone in first place again, and Avanatti now in the top 10.

Democratic nomination:

Harris 16.7
Warren 14.7
Sanders 12.8
Biden 11.1
Patrick 8.1
Newsom 7.5
Gabbard 6.6
Gillibrand 6.2
Avenatti 6.0
Booker 5.9

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 11.9
Kasich 6.4
Haley 3.7
Ryan 3.3
Romney 3.1

Four years ago at this time:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 14.5
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Romney 9.1
Cruz 6.0
Walker 5.3
Perry 4.8
Ryan 4.5

[NewYorkExpress]

Harris alone in first place again, and Avanatti now in the top 10.

Democratic nomination:

Harris 16.7
Warren 14.7
Sanders 12.8
Biden 11.1
Patrick 8.1
Newsom 7.5
Gabbard 6.6
Gillibrand 6.2
Avenatti 6.0
Booker 5.9

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 11.9
Kasich 6.4
Haley 3.7
Ryan 3.3
Romney 3.1

Four years ago at this time:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 14.5
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Romney 9.1
Cruz 6.0
Walker 5.3
Perry 4.8
Ryan 4.5

What idiots are betting on Avenantti?

[TarHeelDem]

The market is very bullish on Trump. Will be interesting to see how long that lasts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kamala has come up considerably in the polls