latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nomination:

Harris 18.2
Warren 16.7
Sanders 11.6
Biden 11.1
Booker 6.6
Gillibrand 5.7
Gabbard 5.3
Winfrey 5.3
Patrick 5.0
Avenatti 4.0
Garcetti 4.0
Zuckerberg 3.7
Clinton 3.6
Cuomo 3.4

Republican nomination:

Trump 66.7
Pence 10.9
Kasich 6.0
Ryan 4.3
Haley 3.8
Romney 3.4
Rubio 2.6
Cruz 2.1

Four years ago at about this time:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Paul 12.2
Christie 10.5
Perry 10.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 5.8
Walker 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nomination:

Harris 19.2
Warren 16.1
Sanders 11.6
Biden 9.1
Patrick 7.8
Booker 6.6
Gabbard 5.7
Gillibrand 5.0
Garcetti 3.8
Winfrey 3.8
Zuckerberg 3.7
Avenatti 3.4
Cuomo 3.4

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 10.0
Kasich 6.0
Ryan 4.3
Haley 3.8
Romney 3.4
Rubio 2.6

Four years ago at about this time:

Rubio 16.3
Paul 12.2
Bush 11.9
Christie 10.0
Perry 9.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 6.0
Ryan 4.5
Walker 4.0
Huckabee 3.3

[Mr. Morden]

Harris-Warren gap is narrowing…

Democratic nomination:

Harris 17.9
Warren 16.1
Sanders 11.4
Patrick 7.8
Biden 7.5
Gabbard 7.0
Booker 5.9
Gillibrand 4.8
Avenatti 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0
Garcetti 3.8
Winfrey 3.8
Zuckerberg 3.7

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 9.5
Kasich 6.0
Ryan 4.3
Haley 3.8
Romney 3.4
Rubio 2.6

Four years ago at this time:

GOP

Bush 17.4
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Romney 9.1
Cruz 6.5
Perry 6.4
Jindal 3.8
Walker 3.8
Huckabee 3.4
Ryan 3.4

Dems

Clinton 68.5
Warren 9.1
Biden 6.5
Cuomo 2.9
O'Malley 2.4

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 29.6
Thune 19.0
Palin 18.8
Pawlenty 13.5
Gingrich 9.0
Huckabee 7.9
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
J. Bush 6.0
Pence 5.0

Twelve years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democratic:

Clinton 48.1
Gore 17.0
Edwards 13.9
Obama 5.0
Kerry 3.3
Bayh 3.1
Feingold 2.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 1.7
Vilsack 1.2
Clark 1.0

Republicans:

McCain 38.4
Giulani 18.6
Romney 15.0
Allen 6.6
Huckabee 6.3
Rice 4.0
Gingrich 3.0
Frist 1.7
Brownback 1.2

[TarHeelDem]

Still think Trump's a little high.

[Mr. Morden]

Still think Trump's a little high.

What do you think is the most likely scenario for him not being the nominee?

[CookieDamage]

Trump's is pretty pathetic for an incumbent president running for re-election.

[TarHeelDem]

Still think Trump's a little high.

What do you think is the most likely scenario for him not being the nominee?

Even a tape(s) of Trump sexually assaulting minors or him shooting someone on 5th Avenue may not be enough to secure 67 votes for removal. But should the Dems retake at least one chamber of Congress, I think the subsequent investigations of Trump will do enough damage to make the party choose Pence for 2020, even if Trump is able to finish the term (yes, I think his approvals could get that low). Looking at the SCO and NYDOJ investigations pragmatically, I find it likely Junior, Kushner, and Kremlin Barbie will all be under indictment by the time the primaries start. One's son, son-in-law, and daughter being likely criminals isn't a good look for a presidential nominee. You also have to consider the testimony that all three of them will likely be giving against him in exchange for leniency. I expect it to be quite damaging.

[NewYorkExpress]

Still think Trump's a little high.

What do you think is the most likely scenario for him not being the nominee?

Even a tape(s) of Trump sexually assaulting minors or him shooting someone on 5th Avenue may not be enough to secure 67 votes for removal. But should the Dems retake at least one chamber of Congress, I think the subsequent investigations of Trump will do enough damage to make the party choose Pence for 2020, even if Trump is able to finish the term (yes, I think his approvals could get that low). Looking at the SCO and NYDOJ investigations pragmatically, I find it likely Junior, Kushner, and Kremlin Barbie will all be under indictment by the time the primaries start. One's son, son-in-law, and daughter being likely criminals isn't a good look for a presidential nominee. You also have to consider the testimony that all three of them will likely be giving against him in exchange for leniency. I expect it to be quite damaging.

I think Trump himself being charged with treason wouldn't stop Republicans from renominating him.

[Mr. Morden]

Haley shoots up to 3rd place for the GOP nomination:

Trump 71.4
Pence 10.0
Haley 8.8
Kasich 6.0

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nomination:

Harris 17.9
Warren 15.1
Sanders 11.1
Biden 10.0
Booker 7.8
Patrick 7.8
Gillibrand 6.2
Gabbard 5.9
Avenatti 4.8
Clinton 4.3
Garcetti 3.7
Zuckerberg 3.7

Republican nomination:

Trump 71.4
Pence 11.9
Haley 7.5
Kasich 5.3

[Da2017]

Democratic nomination:

Harris 17.9
Warren 15.1
Sanders 11.1
Biden 10.0
Booker 7.8
Patrick 7.8
Gillibrand 6.2
Gabbard 5.9
Avenatti 4.8
Clinton 4.3
Garcetti 3.7
Zuckerberg 3.7

Zuckerberg odds have dropped dramatically especially with Facebook's privacy breach. Surprised to see he is still listed I don't think he be a good candidate. He is too nerdy. Nothing wrong with that,but as a candidate you have some sort of a social personality. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My betting odds are:

Booker 50%(he says he's in)
Harris  12%
Bullock  6%
Warren  2%
Sanders 1%


Biden says he doesn't want it

[Mr. Morden]

Harris jumped up to over 25, but it might just be a blip.  Once the midterms are over, we’ll probably get more volume, and we’ll see if it really lasts.  Betfair opened a market for O’Rourke, and he’s already in 6th place.

Democratic nomination:

Harris 26.3
Warren 13.2
Biden 11.1
Sanders 11.1
Gillibrand 9.5
O’Rourke 8.8
Patrick 7.8
Booker 6.2
Gabbard 5.9

Republican nomination:

Trump 71.4
Pence 11.6
Haley 6.0
Kasich 4.2

4 years ago at this time:

Update:

Bush 17.4
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.9
Romney 11.9
Christie 10.7
Cruz 6.8
Perry 5.7
Ryan 5.0
Walker 3.8
Jindal 3.7

Approx. 8 years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 31.2
Palin 19.0
Thune 18.5
Pawlenty 12.0
Christie 9.9
Gingrich 8.6
Huckabee 8.4
Daniels 6.6
Barbour 6.5
J. Bush 6.1
Pence 6.1
Paul 5.2

Approx 12 years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats:

Clinton 52.1
Edwards 13.5
Obama 12.9
Edwards 9.0
Kerry 3.1
Bayh 2.4
Vilsack 2.2
Feingold 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Biden 1.5
Clark 1.4
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.5
Others <= 0.3

Republicans:

McCain 44.5
Romney 14.0
Giulani 13.5
Huckabee 6.0
Rice 4.1
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 3.4
Allen 3.0
Brownback 1.3
Frist 1.2
Cheney 0.8
Jeb Bush 0.8
Tancredo 0.8
Pataki 0.8
Graham 0.8
Powell 0.6
Owens 0.5
Others <= 0.2

[LabourJersey]

Why is Bullock just not on Betfair or Predictit? He's way more likely to get the nom than Cuomo or Oprah or the Rock (why are those last two even on predictit anymore).

[Mr. Morden]

Why is Bullock just not on Betfair or Predictit?

Bullock is on Betfair, but only at 1.6.  I only bother listing the first 10 or so names, as I'm too lazy to type out the #s for all 30+ names, or whatever it is. 

Bullock is somewhere between 66:1 and 50:1 (meaning between ~1.5 and 2.0 in % probability) on all the various betting markets that list him:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[RaphaelDLG]

Harris is priced so high somewhat accurately because out of the people with a path to the nomination, she's by far the most likely to run.  If Biden, Sanders, etc were as guaranteed to make a run as her, her odds would be way smaller. 

You can still make the argument that she's overrated on the basis of not being as strong a Democratic nom candidate as people think; while she has an obvious edge over people like Booker and Gillibrand who are also 100% running, there's no way she should have an edge over the Warren if they have the same odds of running (they probably don't because of the Sanders factor).  She'll have donor cash, and she'll have an advantage with black voters/Californians, but Warren is way better known and more popular among the democratic base, and is a small donor fundraising machine.

[Mr. Morden]

Quick Dem. nomination update: O'Rourke now over 10 and in 5th place:

Harris 23.1
Warren 14.7
Biden 11.1
Sanders 11.1
O’Rourke 10.5
Patrick 7.8
Gillibrand 6.6
Booker 5.9
Gabbard 5.9

[NewYorkExpress]

Quick Dem. nomination update: O'Rourke now over 10 and in 5th place:

Harris 23.1
Warren 14.7
Biden 11.1
Sanders 11.1
O’Rourke 10.5
Patrick 7.8
Gillibrand 6.6
Booker 5.9
Gabbard 5.9

Could someone, anyone please explain why anyone bidding on O'Rourke would be a good idea when he probably won't win his Senate race this year, and even if he did, he'd have to start running for President immediately.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Quick Dem. nomination update: O'Rourke now over 10 and in 5th place:

Harris 23.1
Warren 14.7
Biden 11.1
Sanders 11.1
O’Rourke 10.5
Patrick 7.8
Gillibrand 6.6
Booker 5.9
Gabbard 5.9

Could someone, anyone please explain why anyone bidding on O'Rourke would be a good idea when he probably won't win his Senate race this year, and even if he did, he'd have to start running for President immediately.

It's just replacing the Michelle Obama and Oprah idiocy.

[LabourJersey]

Anyone putting money on O'Rourke is just dumb. The logistics of a run are ridiculous

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Anyone putting money on O'Rourke is just dumb. The logistics of a run are ridiculous

he literally already said that he isn't doing it.

[NewYorkExpress]

Anyone putting money on O'Rourke is just dumb. The logistics of a run are ridiculous

he literally already said that he isn't doing it.

Michelle Obama's said she won't do it for six years now and people still think she'll run someday.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand's only been dinged a little by her denial.  Not just on Betfair, but the other betting markets too.  E.g., Ladbrokes dropped her from about 6% to 5% chance to be the nominee.  Anyway, here's Betfair:

Democratic nomination:

Harris 22.2
Warren 14.3
Biden 11.1
Sanders 10.0
O’Rourke 9.5
Patrick 7.8
Gabbard 7.0
Gillibrand 6.0
Booker 4.5
M. Obama 4.2

Republican nomination:

Trump 73.3
Pence 10.5
Haley 6.0
Kasich 4.2
Romney 2.6
Ryan 2.6

Four years ago today was when Romney buzz briefly propelled him into the top spot for the GOP nomination (which he quickly lost to Bush):

Romney 19.6
Bush 17.4
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Cruz 6.4
Perry 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-election update.  We’ll see how things shake out after election day.  O’Rourke in particular is a potential big mover one way or the other, depending on the midterm results.

Democratic nomination:

Harris 19.2
Warren 14.3
Biden 12.8
Gabbard 8.5
O’Rourke 8.5
Sanders 8.5
Booker 7.8
Patrick 7.8
Gillibrand 6.0
Avenatti 4.5

Republican nomination:

Trump 75.0
Pence 10.0
Haley 5.6
Ryan 4.3
Kasich 4.2

Four years ago today:

GOP nominee:

Bush 17.4
Romney 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.0
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Jindal 3.6
Walker 3.6
Huckabee 3.3

Dem. nominee

Clinton 68.0
Warren 9.1
Biden 6.8
Gillibrand 3.8
O'Malley 3.4
Cuomo 2.6

Eight years ago on Intrade:

GOP nominee:

Romney 29.5
Thune 18.7
Palin 16.2
Pawlenty 11.8
Christie 9.9
Gingrich 6.8
Daniels 6.6
Huckabee 6.6
Barbour 6.5
J. Bush 6.3
Pence 6.1
Paul 6.0
P. Ryan 4.9
DeMint 4.4
Giuliani 4.0
Johnson 2.9
Santorum 2.9

Dem. nominee:

Obama 83.0
Clinton 8.0

[NewYorkExpress]

Out of curiosity, who is betting on Haley?

She already endorsed Trump, and if for some reason Trump isn't running, she'd probably endorse Pence.