latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Big shakeup in recent days, as Warren has surged all the way from 5th place to 2nd place, with Sanders dropping to 4th.  Though 2nd-5th place are all pretty close:

Up: Warren
Down: Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Harris

Biden 31.0
Warren 14.9
Buttigieg 14.5
Sanders 13.4
Harris 12.9
Yang 4.8
O’Rourke 4.3
Gabbard 2.8
Klobuchar 2.1
M. Obama 2.1

Four years ago at this point:

Bush 34.5
Rubio 33.9
Walker 19.0
Paul 10.0
Huckabee 4.8
Christie 3.6
Cruz 3.3
Kasich 3.2 (32Red)
Carson 2.9
Perry 2.9
Fiorina 2.5

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2926530#msg2926530

Romney 30.2
Pawlenty 16.4
Huntsman 13.4
Perry 13.0
Palin 5.6
Bachmann 5.2
Cain 4.6
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.3
Giuliani 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Gingrich 1.0
Pataki 0.8
Santorum 0.8
Johnson 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

Harris’s slow decline continues:

Biden 30.5
Warren 15.4
Buttigieg 14.5
Sanders 13.8
Harris 11.6
Yang 5.0
O’Rourke 4.2
Gabbard 2.8
Klobuchar 2.1
Booker 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Harris rebounds, now back up to 4th place, ahead of Sanders:

Up: Harris
Down: Sanders

Democrats
Biden 30.0
Warren 15.8
Buttigieg 14.1
Harris 13.8
Sanders 12.2
Yang 5.3
O’Rourke 4.3
Gabbard 2.8
Klobuchar 2.4
Clinton 1.9

Republicans
Trump 90.0
Haley 4.8
Pence 4.5

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 10.0
Biden 5.7
O'Malley 5.0

Republicans
Bush 34.7
Rubio 25.4
Walker 17.7
Paul 8.4
Trump 4.2
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 3.4
Jindal 3.1
Perry 3.1
Cruz 2.9

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2934610#msg2934610

Romney 36.0
Perry 15.4
Bachmann 9.8
Pawlenty 9.6
Huntsman 9.5
Palin 4.5
Cain 2.2
Paul 2.0
Giuliani 1.6
Christie 1.4
Ryan 0.9
Gingrich 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Twelve years ago at this time on Tradesports:

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 29.7
Gore 10.7
Edwards 5.0
Richardson 1.8
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.2

Republicans
Thompson 31.5
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 20.6
McCain 8.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.8
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

Yes, McCain at just 8.5 at this point in 2007.  This was the summer implosion of his campaign.

[SaneDemocrat]

Sanders is way too low

[Mr. Morden]

Harris back up to 3rd place:

Biden 29.6
Warren 15.4
Harris 14.1
Buttigieg 13.4
Sanders 12.4
Yang 6.0
O’Rourke 3.8
Gabbard 2.5
Clinton 1.9
Klobuchar 1.8

[eric82oslo]

The longest odds for each candidate at Oddschecker.com now:

1. Joe Biden - 2.5
2. Elizabeth Warren - 6
3. Bernie Sanders - 6.5
4. Pete Buttigieg - 7
5. Kamala Harris - 7
6. Andrew Yang - 17
7. Beto O'Rourke - 25
8. Tulsi Gabbard - 40
9. Cory Booker - 66
10. Amy Klobuchar - 66

11. John Hickenlooper - 100
12. Wayne Messam - 100
13. Eric Swalwell - 100
14. Jay Inslee - 100
15. Steve Bullock - 100
16. Tim Ryan - 100
17. Kirsten Gillibrand - 125
18. Julian Castro - 125
19. Michael Bennet - 150
20. Marianne Williamson - 150

21. John Delaney - 150
22. Bill DeBlasio - 150
23. Seth Moulton - 500
24. Mike Gravel & Joe Sestak - not even dignified with any odds yet


Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[eric82oslo]

The longest odds for each candidate at Oddschecker.com now:


2. Elizabeth Warren - 6

8. Tulsi Gabbard - 40


Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

After the first debate night, the odds of both Warren and Gabbard have shortened in positive direction.
Warren now stands at 5, Tulsi at 33. Positionwise, they're still second and eight though. Which means that right now, Beto remains 7th, Klobuchar 9th and Booker 10th, but it's still early and lots of time to change later today or later this week. At least the smart money seems to be on Elizabeth and Tulsi after the debate, meaning they probably won in many people's eyes. A couple of bookmakers have shortened the odds for Julián as well, although he still remains as long as 125 with one bookie.

On another note, Yang just surpassed 400,000 Twitter followers. An increase of about 30% from just two days ago.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-night 1 of debates update: Warren gaining ground, and O’Rourke drops while Castro surges into the top 10.  Castro now ahead of O’Rourke.

Up: Warren, Gabbard, Castro
Down: Buttigieg, O’Rourke

Biden 29.3
Warren 17.4
Harris 14.9
Sanders 12.4
Buttigieg 12.2
Yang 6.4
Gabbard 3.8
Castro 3.3
O’Rourke 2.9
Booker 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

Massive shifts in the markets in the last couple of hours, with Harris rocketing up to a close 2nd place behind Biden (who’s dropped quite a bit):

Up: Harris
Down: Biden, Yang

Biden 23.6
Harris 22.6
Warren 18.0
Sanders 12.8
Buttigieg 11.6
Yang 4.8
Gabbard 3.8
Castro 3.4
O’Rourke 3.4
Booker 2.3

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Beto....how the mighty have fallen.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris has taken the lead, with Biden dropping more.  Also, Castro's bump fades:

Up: Harris
Down: Biden, Sanders, Yang, O’Rourke, Castro

Harris 24.1
Biden 20.8
Warren 17.4
Buttigieg 11.9
Sanders 11.1
Yang 3.4
Gabbard 3.1
O’Rourke 2.3
Booker 1.9
Clinton 1.9
Castro 1.4

[eric82oslo]

And Joe Biden is not topping the odds anymore!

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

So here are the currents odds from the 13 regular bookmakers featured at Oddschecker.com. (I don't include the three exchanges like Betfair, cause they are of a completely different nature althogether.)

1. Kamala Harris - 3.33
2. Joe Biden - 3.5
3. Elizabeth Warren - 4.5
4. Bernie Sanders - 7
5. Pete Buttigieg - 7

6. Andrew Yang - 22 (deep dive from his pre-debate 16)
7. Tulsi Gabbard - 33
8. Beto O'Rourke - 35
9. Cory Booker - 40
10. Amy Klobuchar - 66

11. John Hickenlooper - 100
12. Tim Ryan - 100
13. Seth Moulton - 100
14. Jay Inslee - 100
15. Steve Bullock - 100
15. Eric Swalwell - 100
17. Wayne Messam - 100
18. Julián Castro - 125
19. Kirsten Gillibrand - 125
20. Michael Bennet - 150

21. John Delaney - 150
22. Bill de Blasio - 150
23. Marianne Williamson - 200
24. Mike Gravel & Joe Sestak - no bookmaker still including them


Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[Mr. Morden]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why is Gabbard so high?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why is Gabbard so high?

Because the gold standard super important Drudge online poll said she won in a landslide.

[eric82oslo]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

With regular bookmakers I think he's always been leading.

[Mr. Morden]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

With regular bookmakers I think he's always been leading.

No he hasn't been.  Look back through the historical data on Oddschecker.  In January, for example, Biden was running behind Harris across the board, at the very least.  Now he's behind her again.

[eric82oslo]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

With regular bookmakers I think he's always been leading.

No he hasn't been.  Look back through the historical data on Oddschecker.  In January, for example, Biden was running behind Harris across the board, at the very least.  Now he's behind her again.

How do you do that?

[Mr. Morden]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

With regular bookmakers I think he's always been leading.

No he hasn't been.  Look back through the historical data on Oddschecker.  In January, for example, Biden was running behind Harris across the board, at the very least.  Now he's behind her again.

How do you do that?

If you click on a candidate's name it gives you their numbers for today.  You can then click the "All History" link, and it shows you the prices for all preceding days.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris’s lead still expanding, while Warren is close to catching Biden for 2nd:

Up: Harris, Warren
Down: Biden

Democrats
Harris 26.3
Biden 18.9
Warren 18.3
Buttigieg 11.6
Sanders 10.5
Yang 3.6
Gabbard 3.1
O’Rourke 2.2
Booker 2.1
Clinton 1.8

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.4

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 83.3
Sanders 10.5
Biden 4.5
O'Malley 4.3

Republicans
Bush 35.5
Rubio 24.8
Walker 17.7
Paul 10.5
Kasich 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Carson 3.4
Trump 3.4
Christie 3.1
Cruz 2.9
Perry 2.6
Fiorina 2.3

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 33.9
Bachmann 13.8
Perry 13.0
Pawlenty 8.4
Huntsman 8.0
Palin 5.4
Paul 2.4
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.9
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Ryan 1.0
Pataki 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1226606#msg1226606

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 34.3
Gore 8.9
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 34.6
Thompson 34.0
Romney 20.1
McCain 5.2
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 0.8
Hagel 0.6
J. Bush 0.6
Rice 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Biden sinks even more, with Warren now edging him out for 2nd place:

Harris 26.0
Warren 18.3
Biden 15.4
Buttigieg 11.4
Sanders 10.9
Yang 4.0
Gabbard 3.8
O’Rourke 2.1
Booker 1.9
Clinton 1.8
Castro 1.3
Klobuchar 0.9
M. Obama 0.8
Abrams 0.7
Bullock 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Harris up to 30, as Buttigieg and Sanders are crashing:

Up: Harris
Down: Buttigieg, Sanders

Democrats
Harris 30.0
Warren 18.6
Biden 15.4
Buttigieg 9.5
Sanders 8.4
Yang 3.3
Gabbard 3.1
Booker 2.5
Gillbrand 1.8
Clinton 1.6
O’Rourke 1.6
Castro 1.4
M. Obama 1.2
Abrams 0.7
Klobuchar 0.6

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.6

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 85.5
Sanders 13.1

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Rubio 23.1
Walker 17.4
Paul 8.1
Huckabee 5.0
Carson 4.3
Trump 4.3
Christie 4.2
Graham 3.8
Cruz 3.3
Kasich 2.6

Roughly eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

Romney 34.0
Bachmann 15.6
Perry 15.4
Pawlenty 8.7
Palin 7.1
Huntsman 6.6
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.7
Cain 1.5
Ryan 1.1
McCotter 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Pataki 0.5

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 45.7
Obama 34.6
Gore 9.2
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 2.3
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 36.0
Thompson 35.5
Romney 18.6
McCain 4.6
Paul 3.3
Gingrich 2.4
Huckabee 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Rice 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Harris still gaining, and Biden still dropping…

Up: Harris, Warren
Down: Biden

Harris 34.5
Warren 20.1
Biden 13.8
Buttigieg 8.8
Sanders 8.4
Yang 2.9
Gabbard 2.8
Booker 2.4
Gillbrand 1.8
O’Rourke 1.6
Castro 1.4
Clinton 1.3

Four years ago today:

Bush 37.5
Rubio 22.6
Walker 17.4
Paul 10.0
Huckabee 6.2
Trump 4.0
Christie 3.8
Carson 2.9
Graham 2.8
Kasich 2.8
Santorum 2.8
Cruz 2.1

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2951879#msg2951879

Romney 33.5
Bachmann 17.5
Perry 14.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Huntsman 7.7
Palin 6.0
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.6
Gingrich 1.6
Giuliani 1.6
Cain 1.5
Ryan 0.9
Santorum 0.6

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1232084#msg1232084

Democrats
Clinton 42.5
Obama 38.8
Gore 7.1
Edwards 5.8
Richardson 1.8
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.2
Thompson 34.5
Romney 15.9
McCain 5.0
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.3
Huckabee 1.6
J. Bush 0.6
Hagel 0.6
Rice 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Bloomberg 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Brownback 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Eraserhead]

lol - both Biden and Sanders are absurdly undervalued.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yang and Gabbard are being overvalued by internet support.