latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Warren now slightly above 50.  On the GOP side, Trump slips a bit more, as Haley gains.

Up: Warren, Clinton, Booker, Haley, Romney
Down: Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Trump, Pence

Democrats
Warren 50.4
Biden 19.6
Sanders 8.1
Yang 5.6
Buttigieg 5.0
Clinton 5.0
Harris 5.0
Booker 1.9
Gabbard 1.8
O’Rourke 1.4

Republicans
Trump 81.0
Haley 9.5
Pence 5.8
Romney 3.6

Four years ago today, Biden’s share price to win the 2016 nomination was slightly higher than his current price to win the 2020 nomination:

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 20.8
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 32.4
Rubio 24.8
Trump 11.9
Fiorina 8.8
Carson 6.4
Christie 5.0
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.4

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3036235#msg3036235

GOP nominee

Romney 45.0
Perry 30.0
Palin 8.0
Christie 4.0
Huntsman 3.9
Cain 2.4
Paul 2.4
Bachmann 2.0
Gingrich 1.2
Giuliani 1.0
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.5

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1302993#msg1302993

Democrats
Clinton 67.2
Obama 16.2
Gore 8.6
Edwards 6.8
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.4
Thompson 24.7
Romney 22.5
Paul 5.2
Gingrich 4.9
McCain 4.6
Huckabee 2.9
Rice 1.0

[PSOL]

Even with the rise of Warren being steady throughout this race and due to excellent organizing, at 50 is massively overvalued this early in the race. The fact of the matter is that since there is few attack ads rolling in this primary, I don’t think we can have a clear say that any candidate has a good chance to win from any point until the last month of the primaries, there’s just way too much unexpected drama.

[IceSpear]

Four years ago today, Biden’s share price to win the 2016 nomination was slightly higher than his current price to win the 2020 nomination

lmao

In other words, the bettors are really, really bad at this.

[Xing]

I don't think Warren being considered the most likely to win the nomination is unreasonable, but she should not be at 50% while Biden is at 20%.

[eric82oslo]

I don't think Warren being considered the most likely to win the nomination is unreasonable, but she should not be at 50% while Biden is at 20%.

Biden should be way lower than 20% for sure. More like 4% if we're being realistic. He can't win literally anywhere outside of the Deep South.

[IceSpear]

I don't think Warren being considered the most likely to win the nomination is unreasonable, but she should not be at 50% while Biden is at 20%.

Biden should be way lower than 20% for sure. More like 4% if we're being realistic. He can't win literally anywhere outside of the Deep South.

Primaries are not winner take all. Theoretically he could lose every state outside the South (as long as he kept them somewhat close) while winning the South in a landslide and still be the nominee.

[eric82oslo]

I don't think Warren being considered the most likely to win the nomination is unreasonable, but she should not be at 50% while Biden is at 20%.

Biden should be way lower than 20% for sure. More like 4% if we're being realistic. He can't win literally anywhere outside of the Deep South.

Primaries are not winner take all. Theoretically he could lose every state outside the South (as long as he kept them somewhat close) while winning the South in a landslide and still be the nominee.

I know, but we've seen how horrible he is at debating by now. He usually does well/decently in the first hour, just to completely lose it and ramble along in a Trumpian stream-of-consciousness way in the last hour or two. He was never any good at debating in 2008 either, but this time around he's taken it to a whole new low. If he gets any deeper now, he'll catch a glimpse of Titanic. Most black voters in the deep south aren't really paying much attention until January or February, so we'll probably not see his numbers dramatically plunge until somewhere around that time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think Warren being considered the most likely to win the nomination is unreasonable, but she should not be at 50% while Biden is at 20%.

[Beet]

Warren is way too high, and I saw that as a Warren fan.

Betting markets are, as a whole nothing but a reflection of conventional wisdom. In the last two cycles there have been markets that have gone from 10% to 100% on election nights.

[jimrtex]

I'm trying to understand the dynamics of Betfair.

The last match on O'Rourke was at $100 (100 for 1).

Let's say I was the one betting on O'Rourke and I bet $10. If O'Rourke is the nominee, I receive $990 (minus a house cut). So I can see entertainment value of a long shot bet, sort of like playing the lottery.

But the bettor on the other side of the bet is putting up $990 to win $10 if O'Rourke fails.

If I were betting with a friend, I'd have to trust that he'd pay up, or that I could beat him up and take his wallet if he didn't. But somehow, I'm trusting that Betfair will give me the $990 if O'Rourke is nominated, or $10 from me if he is not.

How does Betfair ensure they will get the $990 from the other bettor?

If Betfair collected the $990 now, the bettor has lost the opportunity to invest in a money market and make more money over a 10 month period.

What am I not understanding?

[Eraserhead]

Warren is at 50 cents on predictit.

IMO, she’s the most likely person ATM to win the nom, but that is laughably high.

I'd actually say Biden is still most likely by a decent margin with Warren second and Sanders third. So yeah, that's absurd.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren-mania cools a little as she drops below 50.  Meanwhile, Trump’s share price for the GOP nomination falls below 80.

Up: Biden, Pence
Down: Warren, Trump, Haley, Romney

Democrats
Warren 48.0
Biden 22.2
Sanders 8.1
Buttigieg 5.4
Clinton 5.0
Harris 5.0
Yang 4.8
Gabbard 1.8
O’Rourke 1.3
Booker 1.2

Republicans
Trump 78.3
Pence 7.8
Haley 6.5
Rubio 3.4
Romney 2.1
Sasse 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Warren hits a new high, and Buttigieg now tied with Sanders for 3rd place.

Up: Warren, Buttigieg, Yang
Down: Biden, Sanders

Democrats
Warren 52.4
Biden 19.3
Buttigieg 6.4
Sanders 6.4
Yang 6.2
Clinton 5.5
Harris 5.3
Gabbard 1.4
O’Rourke 1.4
Booker 1.1

Republicans
Trump 81.0
Pence 7.2
Haley 5.7
Kasich 1.9
Ryan 1.7
Romney 1.4

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 68.5
Biden 19.6
Sanders 13.8

Republicans
Bush 30.5
Rubio 27.3
Trump 13.8
Fiorina 8.4
Carson 6.8
Christie 4.8
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.4
Paul 1.3
Romney 1.3

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3042992#msg3042992

Romney 56.0
Perry 19.2
Cain 6.0
Palin 4.0
Huntsman 3.9
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 1.9
Bachmann 1.5
Giuliani 1.1
Huckabee 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Christie 0.5
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.5

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1308138#msg1308138

Democrats
Clinton 66.7
Obama 15.5
Gore 9.9
Edwards 6.3
Richardson 0.7
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
Romney 23.2
Thompson 22.9
Paul 6.1
McCain 5.6
Huckabee 3.0
Rice 1.3
Gingrich 0.3

[eric82oslo]

I'm happy to see Yang doing better in the bookmaker odds than McCain was doing at this point in 2007.

[RaphaelDLG]

The people betting on Yang are smoking crack.  He has 0% chance of winning the nomination.  The Democratic establishment will do everything in their power to crush him and he doesn't have a path to the nomination with the necessary Democratic primary demographic groups.

Buttigieg has no real path to the nomination but I think he could easily be a convention dark horse forced on us by the donor base, so I don't know if I agree or disagree with his odds.

Warren is rising in the polls and looks like she might win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, thus picking up an absurd amount of momentum that could help her steamroll Biden - which is why she is given such high odds despite Biden still polling very well.

Sanders is probably being underrated at this point (the health scare could prove less consequential than it seems, his massive volunteer / donor base and increasing cache with minority voters are big positives) but he obviously has much less of a chance of winning than the other two.

[eric82oslo]

The people betting on Yang are smoking crack.  He has 0% chance of winning the nomination.  The Democratic establishment will do everything in their power to crush him and he doesn't have a path to the nomination with the necessary Democratic primary demographic groups.

Buttigieg has no real path to the nomination but I think he could easily be a convention dark horse forced on us by the donor base, so I don't know if I agree or disagree with his odds.

Warren is rising in the polls and looks like she might win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, thus picking up an absurd amount of momentum that could help her steamroll Biden - which is why she is given such high odds despite Biden still polling very well.

Sanders is probably being underrated at this point (the health scare could prove less consequential than it seems, his massive volunteer / donor base and increasing cache with minority voters are big positives) but he obviously has much less of a chance of winning than the other two.

DNC would much rather have a 44 year old Obama Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship awardee, who has been highly praised by Biden several times and who enjoys strong cross party support, as their standard-bearer, rather than a 78 year old democratic socialist with health issues, who during his entire career has refused to be labelled as a Democrat in any way and who resisted endorsing Hillary in 2016 until the day he realized that his entire political career would basically be over as we know it unless he came to his senses. The choice between these two candidates will be a very easy and obvious one for the DNC and the rest of the Democratic leadership/establishment. Stop fooling yourself into believing otherwise.

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg now alone in 3rd place, barely ahead of Hillary Clinton in 4th(!).  Betfair Exchange isn’t really out of line with where bookies have her, as 6% is about middle of the pack for her in betting odds:

link

Democrats
Warren 52.2
Biden 17.4
Buttigieg 6.4
Clinton 6.2
Sanders 6.0
Yang 5.3
Harris 4.5
Gabbard 1.6
O’Rourke 1.2
Booker 1.1

Republicans
Trump 79.2
Pence 6.0
Haley 5.8
Romney 2.3
Rubio 1.9
Ryan 1.7

Four years ago at about this time:

Democrats
Clinton 69.0
Biden 19.6
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 29.2
Rubio 28.0
Trump 13.1
Fiorina 8.1
Carson 7.5
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 3.8
Huckabee 3.3
Paul 1.5

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3045504#msg3045504

Romney 58.0
Perry 19.8
Cain 8.3
Huntsman 3.7
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 1.9
Bachmann 1.4
Giuliani 1.1
Johnson 0.6
Santorum 0.6
Huckabee 0.5
Johnson 0.5

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1308138#msg1308138

Democrats
Clinton 66.7
Obama 15.5
Gore 9.9
Edwards 6.3
Richardson 0.7
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
Romney 23.2
Thompson 22.9
Paul 6.1
McCain 5.6
Huckabee 3.0
Rice 1.3
Gingrich 0.3

[IceSpear]

I like that Biden is getting concern trolled about the nonexistent prospect of a Hillary run. Great karma.

[Beet]

Sanders is absurdly low and I've just loaded up on him on PredictIt @9 cents.

[Holmes]

Sanders is absurdly low and I've just loaded up on him on PredictIt @9 cents.

Good deal.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No way are Bernie's chances worse than someone not running (Hillary) or someone who has 0% of the blacks in their home state supporting them (Buttigieg). 

[BlueSwan]

LOL at Clinton being ahead of Bernie. Surely this must tick off some BernieBros out there.

[Eraserhead]

Sanders is absurdly low and I've just loaded up on him on PredictIt @9 cents.

You could have got him even lower than that during the health scare.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton now in 3rd place for the Dem. nomination(!):

Democrats
Warren 51.6
Biden 18.9
Clinton 6.8
Buttigieg 6.5
Sanders 6.0
Yang 5.3
Harris 4.5
Booker 1.1
Gabbard 1.1
O’Rourke 0.8

Republicans
Trump 80.0
Pence 9.1
Haley 5.5
Romney 2.6
Rubio 2.0

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Biden 20.0
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 29.2
Rubio 28.4
Trump 12.8
Carson 8.1
Fiorina 8.1
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.3
Huckabee 3.3
Kasich 3.3
Romney 1.2

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Like just how?