latest Betfair odds

[The Other Castro]

It's very strange to me how Cruz and Kasich are so close to each other. Cruz would never have it in him to primary Trump, while Kasich has made several moves indicating a potential run.

[Mr. Morden]

It's very strange to me how Cruz and Kasich are so close to each other. Cruz would never have it in him to primary Trump, while Kasich has made several moves indicating a potential run.

Yes, I agree.  Kasich challenging Trump in the primary is *possible*.  But it's highly unlikely to happen with Cruz.  Cruz does want to run for prez again though, so I suppose if Trump opts not to run for a second term, then we could see Cruz 2020, but what are the odds of that happening?

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair prices still bouncing around a lot with low volume, though Warren remains the favorite for the Dem. nomination, and Trump is now below 50% to be nominated again on the GOP side…

Dem. nomination

Warren 15.6
Harris 10.0
Clinton 9.1
M. Obama 9.1
Booker 7.7
Klobuchar 6.9
Biden 6.7
Cuomo 6.7
Sanders 6.7
Kaine 6.5

GOP nomination

Trump 48.1
Pence 14.7
Ryan 14.7
Cotton 8.7
Haley 7.7

The betting exchanges with the prices set by bookies are more stable.  Here, for example, are the #s at William Hill for the Dem. nomination:

Warren 13.3
Booker 12.5
M. Obama 10.0
Cuomo 9.1
Sanders 9.1
Clinton 7.7
Kaine 6.7
Brown 5.9
Hickenlooper 5.9

Other bookies are similar.  I do wonder how long the betting on Michelle Obama will last…

[Potus]

Seems that buying Trump would be a pretty solid investment

[Mr. Morden]

Trump has taken a serious beating on the winning individual market these past few days.  He’s now under 30 to be reelected in 2020:

Trump 27.7
Pence 9.5
Warren 9.5
M. Obama 6.8
Biden 4.8
Clinton 4.8
Ryan 4.2
Kaine 4.0
Sanders 4.0
Booker 3.6
Zuckerberg 3.1
Castro 2.5
Brown 2.4 (Bet365)
Gillibrand 2.4 (Bet365)
Harris 2.4
Hickenlooper 2.3

(Brown and Gillibrand still aren’t listed on the winning individual market for Betfair, so I list their latest prices on Bet365.)

[Boomer sooner]

Trumps GOP odds are way too low and his generals aren't much better. If i betted I would put a lot on him being the GOP nominee.

[Sorenroy]

So how exactly does this betting stuff work: do you put down 30¢ now and hope you get back $1.00 on election day or do you only pay out after the election occurs? I have to imagine it's the second, because I can't see anyone sinking a substantial amount of money into something that gives such a small pay off several years before the election.

[Mr. Morden]

So how exactly does this betting stuff work: do you put down 30¢ now and hope you get back $1.00 on election day or do you only pay out after the election occurs? I have to imagine it's the second, because I can't see anyone sinking a substantial amount of money into something that gives such a small pay off several years before the election.

No, you put up the money now, and then it pays out when the thing you're betting on is resolved.  E.g., if you're betting on the 2020 Democratic nominee, then it pays out when the 2020 DNC is held, and someone formally receives the nomination.

However, if you have cancelling positions, then you can get money back before then.  E.g., suppose you put money on Booker to be the Democratic nominee at 7.7.  Then you put up that money now, but if the price later goes up to some higher number next month, then you could it short it at that higher number and get your money back with a profit well before 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump to leave office before his first term is over (whether via death, impeachment, resignation, etc.) is now up to 49.5.  Trump to win the 2020 GOP nomination is down to 39.7.  And in winning individual, he’s below 25:

Trump 23.6
Pence 10.9
Warren 9.1
M. Obama 7.0
Biden 5.4
Ryan 5.0
Sanders 4.8
Clinton 3.8
Kaine 3.4
Cruz 3.3
Booker 2.9
Harris 2.6

This isn’t because of Syria btw.  Most of the slide in Trump’s position came before yesterday, and nothing much has really changed since then.

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nomination:

Warren 16.1
Biden 12.5
M. Obama 9.5
Sanders 9.1
Clinton 7.7
Harris 7.7
Booker 7.4

Republican nomination:

Trump 39.4
Pence 38.2
Ryan 14.7
Cotton 7.1

[Mr. Morden]

Trump to leave office before the end of his term now at 53.5.

[DK_Mo82]

Pence & Ryan are way overpriced.

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nomination

Warren 17.4
Sanders 16.8
Biden 11.6
Clinton 11.4
M. Obama 10.0
Booker 7.8
Harris 7.8
Klobuchar 7.0
Kaine 6.8

Republican nomination

Trump 44.1
Pence 32.9
Ryan 15.4

[Mr. Morden]

Share prices are volatile, but we are having a Trump comeback on winning individual…

Trump 30.0
Warren 12.5
Pence 11.9
Biden 5.4
M. Obama 5.4
Sanders 5.0
Booker 3.6
Clinton 3.3
Harris 3.3
Kasich 3.3
Ryan 2.8
The Rock 2.6
Zuckerberg 2.6

[Technocracy Timmy]

They really need to disaggregate the cash flows so we know how many people are betting on each candidate, and not just how much money in total is being bet on each candidate.

I think that only the Irish markets currently do this.

[Mr. Morden]

Joe-mentum continues, with Biden now alone in 4th place (and 2nd among the Dems listed) for winning individual:

Trump 30.0
Warren 12.8
Pence 11.4
Biden 5.8
M. Obama 5.4
Sanders 5.3
Booker 3.4
Zuckerberg 3.4
Kasich 3.3
Harris 3.1

[Hoosier_Nick]

Joe-mentum continues, with Biden now alone in 4th place (and 2nd among the Dems listed) for winning individual:

Trump 30.0
Warren 12.8
Pence 11.4
Biden 5.8
M. Obama 5.4
Sanders 5.3
Booker 3.4
Zuckerberg 3.4
Kasich 3.3
Harris 3.1

It's laughable how high Obama and Zuckerberg are, whereas Booker is only at 3.4 and Harris has 3.1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren and Sanders and Biden are gonna stand down with respect to Booker

[Blue3]

Warren and Sanders and Biden are gonna stand down with respect to Booker

lol

There will be no deference to anyone in the 2020 Democratic primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would put it

Trump 30
Pence 15
Booker 10
Biden 5
everyone else  Harris or Warren<5

[Badger]

Trumpet only 50 50 or so isn't a terrible bet comma if only that if - - even ignoring the outside chance he's actually impeached or resigns - - he may be in such bad shape he decides not to run again.

[Mr. Morden]

Republican nomination:

Trump 46.7
Pence 28.6
Ryan 11.1

[Lord Halifax]

It's very strange to me how Cruz and Kasich are so close to each other. Cruz would never have it in him to primary Trump, while Kasich has made several moves indicating a potential run.

Yes, I agree.  Kasich challenging Trump in the primary is *possible*.  But it's highly unlikely to happen with Cruz.  Cruz does want to run for prez again though, so I suppose if Trump opts not to run for a second term, then we could see Cruz 2020, but what are the odds of that happening?

Trump is old, fat and sleep deprived. There is a good chance he dies before 2020.

[Person Man]

It's very strange to me how Cruz and Kasich are so close to each other. Cruz would never have it in him to primary Trump, while Kasich has made several moves indicating a potential run.

Yes, I agree.  Kasich challenging Trump in the primary is *possible*.  But it's highly unlikely to happen with Cruz.  Cruz does want to run for prez again though, so I suppose if Trump opts not to run for a second term, then we could see Cruz 2020, but what are the odds of that happening?

Trump is old, fat and sleep deprived. There is a good chance he dies before 2020.

You can be that phucked up and live into your 80s. While doing what Trump is doing? That's to be seen. I give him a 50/50 chance where I would have given Bernie or McCain 90/10 chance of living to 2025.

[Mr. Morden]

Predictit now giving Booker a whopping 77% chance of running, which is too high, IMHO.  Yes, he's near the top of the list of people most likely to run, maybe even at the very top.  But we're at least 18 months away from people announcing, too many things could happen that would change people's plans, etc., so too early for anyone to be given a 77% chance of running.