latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Michelle Obama, Kamala Harris, and Mark Zuckerberg all up in winning individual, while Trump and Warren both drop a bit.  Harris now (barely) ahead of Sanders, though Sanders is still ahead of her on most other betting sites.

Trump 28.8
Warren 11.4
Pence 11.1
M. Obama 7.0
Biden 5.7
Harris 5.4
Sanders 5.3
Zuckerberg 4.8
Ryan 4.5
Booker 3.6
Kasich 3.3
Castro 2.9

[Mr. Morden]

Despite the news of the past few weeks, Trump’s share price on winning individual has actually gone up.  Also, Sherrod Brown and Kirsten Gillibrand aren’t listed on Betfair’s winning individual, but they’re both doing decently with some of the other online bookies, so I list their share price on BetRed:

Trump 32.9
Pence 11.9
Warren 10.9
M. Obama 5.8
Biden 5.0
Harris 5.0
Sanders 5.0
The Rock 4.2
Zuckerberg 4.2
Booker 3.6
Ryan 3.3
Castro 2.9
Brown 2.4 (BetRed)
Gillibrand 2.4 (BetRed)

[The Mikado]

The betting markets are totally discredited. Both Bremain and Hillary traded at 85-90% literally minutes before the decisive votes started getting reported. These reflects the biases of their urban, center-left, sources of dumb money.

If Betfair had existed Since WW2, then it (or any other betting markets out there) would have had the guy who ended up winning the presidency favored in their market on election eve in every presidential election from 1952 to 2012.  Now, because the underdog wins one time, they're "discredited"?

From over half a year ago, but would the betting markets have won in 1960?

[Mr. Morden]

The betting markets are totally discredited. Both Bremain and Hillary traded at 85-90% literally minutes before the decisive votes started getting reported. These reflects the biases of their urban, center-left, sources of dumb money.

If Betfair had existed Since WW2, then it (or any other betting markets out there) would have had the guy who ended up winning the presidency favored in their market on election eve in every presidential election from 1952 to 2012.  Now, because the underdog wins one time, they're "discredited"?

From over half a year ago, but would the betting markets have won in 1960?

My understanding was that Kennedy was narrowly favored.  Looks like he was slightly ahead of Nixon in the polls just before the election:

link

[7,052,770]

1 out of every 10 races with 90% odds the minute before polls close should go to the underdog, or else the odds are bad in the other direction.

[Mr. Morden]

Klobuchar’s surged to near 50 on Predictit’s odds of candidates deciding to run or not:

Booker 69
Warren 60
Cuomo 58
Klobuchar 46
Gillibrand 41
Kasich 39
Cruz 28
Sanders 28
Zuckerberg 26
The Rock 25
Cuban 23

I’m still surprised they don’t list Biden.  I understand why they don’t have O’Malley, since, despite him being very likely to run, nobody cares about him.  But you would think a big name like Biden would be listed.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Klobuchar’s surged to near 50 on Predictit’s odds of candidates deciding to run or not:

Booker 69
Warren 60
Cuomo 58
Klobuchar 46
Gillibrand 41
Kasich 39
Cruz 28
Sanders 28
Zuckerberg 26
The Rock 25
Cuban 23

I’m still surprised they don’t list Biden.  I understand why they don’t have O’Malley, since, despite him being very likely to run, nobody cares about him.  But you would think a big name like Biden would be listed.

Surprised that McAuliffe isn't listed. Biden too, of course.

[The Other Castro]

Hmm that's much higher for Kasich than I would have expected. They should have something up for Biden soon.

[Mr. Morden]

Predictit just added Kamala Harris to their list of candidates for whom they're taking bets on whether they'll run or not (though no shares have been traded for her yet).  They still have yet to add Biden, which seems weird to me.

[Mr. Morden]

The party nomination markets are still rather low volume in trading, but I’ll just mention that Harris has been surging in the Dem. nomination market, and, as of a few days ago, is now in the lead, ahead of Warren:

Dem. nomination

Harris 20.0
Warren 19.2
Biden 12.5
Sanders 10.6
M. Obama 8.3
Clinton 8.0

GOP nomination

Trump 49.5
Pence 24.4

[The Other Castro]

The PredictIt Dem nomination market is finally here. It's not worth posting exact numbers since the market just opened and prices are going to fluctuate a lot before they settle, but the top four right now appear to be: Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Harris.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

[Mr. Morden]

Harris is now solidly in second place in the winning individual market:

Trump 28.0
Harris 11.4
Pence 8.4
Warren 7.5
M. Obama 5.3
Sanders 5.0
Zuckerberg 4.8
Biden 3.8
The Rock 3.8
Oprah Winfrey 3.4
Booker 2.6
Gillibrand 2.5
Clinton 2.4
Castro 2.1
Franken 2.1
P. Ryan 2.1

[Sorenroy]

As best I can understand, these are the current Betfair odds for the next president (post 2017 elections, only including candidates with over a 2% chance to win):

Donald Trump — 27.8%
Elizabeth Warren — 6.7%
Mike Pence — 6.7%
Kamala Harris — 5.7%
Joe Biden — 5.6%
Bernie Sanders — 4.2%
Dwayne Johnson — 3.4%
Mark Zuckerberg — 2.8%
Michelle Obama — 2.5%
Cory Booker — 2.1%

Of course, I could be doing this all wrong, but I think I understand (1/last price matched).

Edit: I think something is wrong, as Elizabeth Warren has 15 price matched for Next President to Kamala Harris's 17.5, but for Democratic Nomenee they are tied at 6.4. I guess I am reading wrong or something.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, I could be doing this all wrong, but I think I understand (1/last price matched).

Edit: I think something is wrong, as Elizabeth Warren has 15 price matched for Next President to Kamala Harris's 17.5, but for Democratic Nomenee they are tied at 6.4. I guess I am reading wrong or something.

No, that is the right idea.  It is 1/last price.  But the nomination and general election don't always match very well because it's still very early so volume is low.  I think winning individual volume is a bit better than the nomination markets.

I tend to use Oddschecker's price list for Betfair Exchange:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

Numbers tend to be slightly different from what's on Betfair's website, but the layout of Betfair's website kind of annoys me.  Here's where we're at right now on winning individual:

Trump 28.4
Pence 8.4
Warren 7.5
Harris 7.0
Biden 5.7
Sanders 4.8
The Rock 4.0
Zuckerberg 3.7
M. Obama 3.3
Booker 3.1
Winfrey 2.5
P. Ryan 2.3

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual:

Trump 29.6
Pence 8.1
Harris 7.5
Warren 7.0
Sanders 5.0
Biden 4.8
Gillibrand 4.3
The Rock 3.8
M. Obama 3.3
Zuckerberg 3.3
Booker 2.6

[Mr. Morden]

Predictit now has the following probabilities for these candidates running:

Harris 73
Gillibrand 72
Booker 68
Cuomo 65
McAuliffe 65
Sanders 61
Warren 60
Kasich 58
Klobuchar 58
Biden 56
Winfrey 39
Brown 36
Pence 34
Patrick 32
Cuban 28
Cruz 25
Kaine 22
The Rock 25
Schultz 19
Zuckerberg 16
P. Ryan 14
Bannon 9
Scarborough 9

[Mr. Morden]

Lots of movement in the betting markets towards Oprah today.  For some reason, Betfair isn’t showing up for me today, but here’s winning individual on BetRed:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

Trump 40.0
Harris 8.3
Pence 8.3
Warren 7.1
Winfrey 7.1
Biden 5.0
Sanders 5.0
Gillibrand 4.0
Booker 3.0
M. Obama 3.0
Zuckerberg 3.0

All the other betting markets similarly have Winfrey close to or only marginally behind Harris and Warren.

[Mr. Morden]

The version of Betfair where the prices are set by bookies now has Oprah in second place on winning individual, ahead of every Democrat, and ahead of anyone else who isn’t Trump:

Trump 28.6
Winfrey 11.1
Biden 9.1
Pence 9.1
Warren 9.1
Harris 6.7
Gillibrand 5.9
Booker 5.3
M. Obama 4.8
P. Ryan 4.8
Sanders 4.8
Zuckberberg 4.8

EDIT: I just revised the numbers, because I initially misread how Oddschecker now reports them.  The Betred #s from the earlier post should also have Trump closer to 30 than 40, because I misread how they were being reported, but I'm too lazy to fix that one too.

[Mr. Morden]

Winfrey’s denial has led to her crashing in the betting markets.  In the Betfair market where prices are set by bookies, for winning individual, we’re now at:

Trump 28.6
Biden 9.1
Pence 9.1
Warren 9.1
Harris 6.7
Gillibrand 5.9
Sanders 5.9
Booker 5.3
M. Obama 4.8
P. Ryan 4.8
Zuckerberg 4.8

Winfrey’s now down to 1.5.  (Not as bad for her in some of the other betting markets though.)

[Mr. Morden]

First update on the Dem. nomination market in a long time:

Harris 16.1
Sanders 15.4
Warren 13.2
Biden 11.6
Winfrey 7.5
Gillibrand 6.2
Booker 5.9
M. Obama 5.9
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

[ProgressiveCanadian]

First update on the Dem. nomination market in a long time:

Harris 16.1
Sanders 15.4
Warren 13.2
Biden 11.6
Winfrey 7.5
Gillibrand 6.2
Booker 5.9
M. Obama 5.9
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

Harris in first = LOLOLOL

[here2view]

First update on the Dem. nomination market in a long time:

Harris 16.1
Sanders 15.4
Warren 13.2
Biden 11.6
Winfrey 7.5
Gillibrand 6.2
Booker 5.9
M. Obama 5.9
Kaine 4.3
Klobuchar 4.0
Zuckerberg 4.0

I'd be buying hard on Gillibrand and Booker. I highly doubt Sanders and Biden both run. I could see one, but not both. If I had to bet I'd say Sanders doesn't with Warren running. I think the big four that will almost certainly run is Booker, Gillibrand, Harris, and Warren.

[Koharu]

I can't believe that Michelle Obama is moving up in the rankings. She has indicated over and over and over again that she has no interest in running. She wasn't even crazy about how public her life was as First Lady.

I find these bets intriguing but very bizarre: I love that you keep us updated, because it's amusing if nothing else.

[henster]

Biden won't run if Booker or Harris runs and Sanders won't run if Warren runs. Harris and Warren are unlikely to both run.

[UncleSam]

Why is Pence so high lol, there's no chance he wins if Trump is impeached and no chance he runs if Trump isn't.