latest Betfair odds

[BlueSwan]

Democratic nomination:

Sanders 17.9
Harris 16.7
Biden 14.7
Warren 11.4
Gillibrand 7.5
Winfrey 6.4
Booker 6.0
M. Obama 4.5
Hickenlooper 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0
Newsom 4.0

Soooo....

"Establishment" (Harris, Biden, Gillibrand, Booker, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Newsom): 53,1%
"Left wing/progressive" (Sanders, Warren): 29,3%
"Obscure"/"Celebrity" (Winfrey, Obama): 10,9%

[BlueSwan]

Democratic nomination:

Sanders 17.9
Harris 16.7
Biden 14.7
Warren 11.4
Gillibrand 7.5
Winfrey 6.4
Booker 6.0
M. Obama 4.5
Hickenlooper 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0
Newsom 4.0

Soooo....

"Establishment" (Harris, Biden, Gillibrand, Booker, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Newsom): 53,1%
"Left wing/progressive" (Sanders, Warren): 29,3%
"Obscure"/"Celebrity" (Winfrey, Obama): 10,9%

Soooo... your point is the establishment will win and the left wing is screwed?

Not really. I don't take betting odds too seriously. Especially not this far out. Just did the math.

[BlueSwan]

Out of curiosity, who is betting on Haley?

Maybe Bill Kristol:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/bill-kristol-wants-to-talk-to-nikki-haley-about-running-against-trump.html

Bill Kristol should give it up and just vote for democrats until the GOP possibly becomes sane again (looks doubtful at the moment). I listen to the Weekly Standard podcast, which is almost non-stop Trump Bashing until the discussion falls on democrats. I'm not sure how these people can be so right about Trump, yet so delusional when it comes to democrats. It is like they equate democrats with the far left, which is very very far from the truth.

[BlueSwan]

Harris narrowly ahead again:

Harris 18.2
O’Rourke 17.9
Warren 12.5

Out of curiosity, who is betting on Haley?

Maybe Bill Kristol:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/bill-kristol-wants-to-talk-to-nikki-haley-about-running-against-trump.html

Bill Kristol should give it up and just vote for democrats until the GOP possibly becomes sane again (looks doubtful at the moment). I listen to the Weekly Standard podcast, which is almost non-stop Trump Bashing until the discussion falls on democrats. I'm not sure how these people can be so right about Trump, yet so delusional when it comes to democrats. It is like they equate democrats with the far left, which is very very far from the truth.

That's what a lot of anti-Trump Republicans need to do. Put your pride aside and vote for Democrats if just to stop Trump, his agenda, and the GOP's continued devolution under him.

The primary and the general election are different beasts though.  So why shouldn't Kristol back candidates he prefers in the GOP primary, including encouraging Haley or whoever else he might prefer to run?  That doesn't preclude him jumping ship for the Democratic nominee in the general election, assuming that Trump is re-nominated.

Sure. I mean, if he can wreck some havoc in the GOP primaries, I'm all for that. I think my comment was more directed at the whole Weekly Standard crew who seem incredibly reluctant to vote for democrats to actually stop Trump. I don't think any of them actually voted for Hillary. They went McMullin or Johnson or abstained altogether.

[BlueSwan]

Yang surge, wtf??

[BlueSwan]

Biden 20.5
Super overrated. He hasn't even announced yet and is extremely likely to bomb if he does. I do not have him in my top 4 most likely candidates.

Harris 20.1
Should be higher. The most likely candidate currently in my view.

Sanders 20.1
Yeah, sure. I don't think Sanders wins but I have to admit that there are several plausible scenarios where he wins.

O’Rourke 16.8
Too low. I have him second to Harris at the moment. Could bomb for sure, but his upside is massive. Probably the only candidate who could potentially just run away with the primary quickly.

Yang 7.2
LOL, no. In a year full of mainstream candidates, Yang might have the alt-dem line for himself and could post serious numbers. This is not such a year.

Booker 4.5
Too low. The guy has what it takes. Harris is a problem for him, but if she bombs, then he is immediately Tier 1.

Buttigieg 3.8
Seems about right.

Warren 3.6
Also seems about right. Certainly not too low. Warrens chances are slim and I'm glad that most people seem to have figured this out by now (Nate Silver had her as the most likely candidate recently, proving that he should stick to analyzing data).

Gabbard 3.3
This seems crazy to me. I just don't see any scenario where Gabbard wins.

Klobuchar 3.1
Probably about right. Should be the moderate segments choice, but the abusive boss stories hurt her. Republicans can get away with that, democrats probably can't.

[BlueSwan]

Buttigieg is starting to look really good to me.

[BlueSwan]

LOL at Clinton being ahead of Bernie. Surely this must tick off some BernieBros out there.

[BlueSwan]

Some of those numbers are just bonkers. Clinton still ahead of a number of actually viable candidates who ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING. Harris at 1.4 is laughably low. Sure the last couple of months have been horrible for her, but her surge earlier in the campaign shows that there is still some untapped potential here and she is that unusual candidate who is both highly electable (arguably more so than any other dem candidate) and someone who should be acceptable to all fractions of the party (except for the purists who only wants Sanders).

Also, how is Booker not amongst the top candidates for VP? He is such an obvious VP pick.

[BlueSwan]

Also, how is Booker not amongst the top candidates for VP? He is such an obvious VP pick.

For whatever reason, $markets isn’t offering shares on Booker for VP at this time.  However, Ladbrokes (which is not peer-to-peer, but instead has prices set by bookies) does have him listed, as well as others who are not on $markets.  Here’s the Ladbrokes VP market:

Buttigieg 14.3
Harris 14.3
Castro 11.1
Warren 11.1
Abrams 9.1
Booker 9.1
S. Brown 7.7
O’Rourke 7.7
Klobuchar 5.9

Interesting. Personally I think Harris, Booker and Castro are by far the most likely picks. I think Warren likely picks Booker or Castro. I think Biden likely picks Harris (despite the 1st debate) or Booker. I have no idea who Sanders would pick. I think Buttigieg would pick Booker or Harris. I have no idea how Buttigieg tops that list, as I don't see who amongst the top candidates would pick him. I guess Harris is the closest to a top candidate who might pick him. Definitely not Sanders or Warren and I don't see how Biden picks him over a racial minority candidate.

[BlueSwan]

Also, how is Booker not amongst the top candidates for VP? He is such an obvious VP pick.

For whatever reason, $markets isn’t offering shares on Booker for VP at this time.  However, Ladbrokes (which is not peer-to-peer, but instead has prices set by bookies) does have him listed, as well as others who are not on $markets.  Here’s the Ladbrokes VP market:

Buttigieg 14.3
Harris 14.3
Castro 11.1
Warren 11.1
Abrams 9.1
Booker 9.1
S. Brown 7.7
O’Rourke 7.7
Klobuchar 5.9

Interesting. Personally I think Harris, Booker and Castro are by far the most likely picks. I think Warren likely picks Booker or Castro. I think Biden likely picks Harris (despite the 1st debate) or Booker. I have no idea who Sanders would pick. I think Buttigieg would pick Booker or Harris. I have no idea how Buttigieg tops that list, as I don't see who amongst the top candidates would pick him. I guess Harris is the closest to a top candidate who might pick him. Definitely not Sanders or Warren and I don't see how Biden picks him over a racial minority candidate.

Why wouldn't Warren pick mayor Pete?

Why would she, when she could have Booker, Harris or even Castro instead? All three are racial minorities and those are "safer" minorities than having a homosexual man on the ticket. And at least Harris and Booker are to the left of Buttigieg, but still plenty establishment enough to "balance" the ticket.

Essentially, I think Booker is a very very good pick for VP for a whole bunch of candidates. He's likable, he's energetic, he's a racial minority and he strikes me as someone who would be pretty easy to work with and not try to steal the thunder from the top of the ticket or whatever. If I was Warren I would pick Booker. If I was Biden I would pick Booker or Harris.

Sanders might actually pick Gabbard, right? That would be such a disaster...the Russians would win regardless of the outcome.

[BlueSwan]

I'm actually shocked that Palin was at 20% twelve years ago. I seem to recall her selection being a major surprise...