2020 Senate Elections

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

A young Democrat should run for the US Senate seat in Iowa. We know how much Iowa loves to keep their incumbents around forever. It's worth taking a chance with them over someone like Miller or Vilsack, who are both over 100 years old. Iowa is a state full of insane people, and that works out great for both parties (see Tom Harkin and Chuck Grassley constantly winning in weird environments that do not favor their party).

[Skill and Chance]

A young Democrat should run for the US Senate seat in Iowa. We know how much Iowa loves to keep their incumbents around forever. It's worth taking a chance with them over someone like Miller or Vilsack

So Finkenauer?  It would probably make her House seat Likely R, but she might lose it anyway.  She would be 31 on election day if she wins, 32 at the swearing in.

[MT Treasurer]

I really don’t see Ernst losing unless Democrats also win the state at the presidential level (and even then, I could see her running two or three points ahead of Trump). I think this race will move off of the competitive radar fairly quickly if the presidential race is also competitive. Finkenauer and Axne will also need to get very lucky with the environment and enthusiasm gap again to hold their seats.

And if Sutton couldn’t win a gubernatorial race against Noem of all people in a Democratic wave year, he’s not beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a presidential year.

[lfromnj]

I really don’t see Ernst losing unless Democrats also win the state at the presidential level (and even then, I could see her running two or three points ahead of Trump). I think this race will move off of the competitive radar fairly quickly if the presidential race is also competitive. Finkenauer and Axne will also need to get very lucky with the environment and enthusiasm gap again to hold their seats.

And if Sutton couldn’t win a gubernatorial race against Noem of all people in a Democratic wave year, he’s not beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a presidential year.

Axne should be good IMO. It has Des moines which is a big metro and it was able to partially offset the rest of Iowas hard swing to Trump in 2016. Fink should be in trouble. Loebsack is a bit more entrenched although Finks and Loebsacks districts are similar.

[libertpaulian]

I really don’t see Ernst losing unless Democrats also win the state at the presidential level (and even then, I could see her running two or three points ahead of Trump). I think this race will move off of the competitive radar fairly quickly if the presidential race is also competitive. Finkenauer and Axne will also need to get very lucky with the environment and enthusiasm gap again to hold their seats.

And if Sutton couldn’t win a gubernatorial race against Noem of all people in a Democratic wave year, he’s not beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a presidential year.

Axne should be good IMO. It has Des moines which is a big metro and it was able to partially offset the rest of Iowas hard swing to Trump in 2016. Fink should be in trouble. Loebsack is a bit more entrenched although Finks and Loebsacks districts are similar.

If Finkenauer can figure out a way to craft her own brand, she could keep the seat for a while, IMO.

[lfromnj]

I really don’t see Ernst losing unless Democrats also win the state at the presidential level (and even then, I could see her running two or three points ahead of Trump). I think this race will move off of the competitive radar fairly quickly if the presidential race is also competitive. Finkenauer and Axne will also need to get very lucky with the environment and enthusiasm gap again to hold their seats.

And if Sutton couldn’t win a gubernatorial race against Noem of all people in a Democratic wave year, he’s not beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a presidential year.

Axne should be good IMO. It has Des moines which is a big metro and it was able to partially offset the rest of Iowas hard swing to Trump in 2016. Fink should be in trouble. Loebsack is a bit more entrenched although Finks and Loebsacks districts are similar.

If Finkenauer can figure out a way to craft her own brand, she could keep the seat for a while, IMO.

yeah thats true and im not saying the Fink is doomed but Id say Axne has an easier seat to hold.

[Skill and Chance]

I can see it now:


"Today, 10 term US Senator Abby Finkenauer of Dubuque, the last Democrat elected to statewide office in Iowa since the 2050's, announced that she will not be seeking reelection in 2080.  Finkenauer, now age 90, looks forward to spending her golden years with her 12 great-grandchildren in eastern Iowa.  Senator Finkenauer, famous for her successful 30 hour filibuster 2 years ago against a proposed constitutional amendment to override the Supreme Court's 6/3 decision in Unit 5783 v. Texas that self-aware robots have the same equal protection rights as humans under the 14th Amendment, believes her work in Washington is now done.  First elected during the Great Trade War of 2020, which wrecked havoc on rural Iowa families unseen since the Farm Crisis of the 1980's, Finkenauer defeated Senator Joni Ernst by a 51%/46% margin, amidst the economic turmoil of the 2019-27 depression.  Finkenauer would go on to win 9 more US Senate elections, her only close call being her first reelection in 2026, coinciding with the 6th year backlash to President Tammy Baldwin, now deeply unpopular in Iowa after the stock market and commodity prices gave up almost all of there early 2020's gains.  The only Democrat that year to win a senate seat ever carried by President Trump, Finkenauer eeked out a 5000 vote plurality victory after her opponent, a male state senator, remarked in a TV interview that 'Iowa deserves more than half a senator' in response to a question about Senator Finkenauer's 2 maternity leaves taken during her 1st term.  Political polarization in the country decreased dramatically after economic conditions improved and Senator Finkenauer would on to win each of her next 8 terms with a majority of the vote." 

[MycroftCZ]

I feel like Axne or Finkenauer could run. They were just elected to Congress but Rosen just did that in Nevada(i.e. being elected to Congress and then turning around and running for Senate).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

52/47 R Senate depending on FL

Tilt D ME CO
Tossups NC, AZ, IA
Tilt GOP AL. MSb depending on runoff, TX

Retirements Inhofe, Roberts

[lfromnj]

Tilt D ME CO
Tossups NC, AZ, IA
Tilt GOP AL. MSb depending on runoff, TX

Retirements Inhofe, Roberts

LOL
Colorado is Lean atleats RN and probably Likely

Maine is tossup
IA- Lean
AL is Safe

[henster]

It's one thing to give up your seat as a first termer for an open seat but to give up your seat you just won to go up against a popularish incumbent...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 51/47 R Senate depending on FL and MSb

[Skill and Chance]

It's one thing to give up your seat as a first termer for an open seat but to give up your seat you just won to go up against a popularish incumbent...

They should seek reelection in their House seats unless the economy crashes.  If it does, the Senate seat could be won.

[lfromnj]

It's one thing to give up your seat as a first termer for an open seat but to give up your seat you just won to go up against a popularish incumbent...

I’m fine with Jared Golden giving up his seat to run for Senate. Low risk, high reward since that seat is on borrowed time

Now that I look on it I think golden was one of the strongest candidates this cycle to appeal to so many rural hicks in Maine.

[IceSpear]

Hopefully Vilsack steps up in IA he'd the Bredesen of the cycle and would actually have a chance given the states lean.

Being "the Bredesen of the cycle" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. When will people learn that old ass washed up former governors aren't good recruits?

[lfromnj]

Hopefully Vilsack steps up in IA he'd the Bredesen of the cycle and would actually have a chance given the states lean.

Being "the Bredesen of the cycle" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. When will people learn that old ass washed up former governors aren't good recruits?

btw what is your opinion on Bullock 2020 senate?

[IceSpear]

Hopefully Vilsack steps up in IA he'd the Bredesen of the cycle and would actually have a chance given the states lean.

Being "the Bredesen of the cycle" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. When will people learn that old ass washed up former governors aren't good recruits?

btw what is your opinion on Bullock 2020 senate?

Popular incumbent governors like Hassan, Scott, etc. seem to do much better than the laundry list of old ass washed up former governors who flamed out, so I think he'd make it a race at minimum. But I'd still bet on Daines.

[HarrisonL]

My Current Ratings

Likely Republican

Kentucky (McConnell) (R-inc)
Kansas (Roberts) (R-inc) (Retiring)
Montana (Daines) (R-inc)
Texas (Cornyn) (R-inc)

Lean Republican

Iowa (Ernst) (R-inc)
Georgia (Perdue) (R-inc)
Maine (Collins) (R-inc)
Alabama (Jones) (D-inc)
North Carolina (Tillis) (R-inc)

Tossup

Arizona (McSally) (R-inc)

Lean Democratic

Colorado (Gardner) (R-inc)
New Hampshire (Shaheen) (D-inc)
Michigan (Peters) (D-inc)

Likely Democratic

Virginia (Warner) (D-inc)
Minnesota (Smith) (D-inc)

[HarrisonL]

Hopefully Vilsack steps up in IA he'd the Bredesen of the cycle and would actually have a chance given the states lean.

Being "the Bredesen of the cycle" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. When will people learn that old ass washed up former governors aren't good recruits?

btw what is your opinion on Bullock 2020 senate?

Watch Bullock pull a Hickenlooper and run for President.

[TarHeelDem]

Likely D - CO
Lean D - AZ
Tilt D - none
Toss-Up - NC
Tilt R - ME
Lean R - GA
Likely R - AL, MT, TX

Everything else is Safe.

[S019]

This map assumes a competitive Presidential race

>30%-tilt
>50%-lean
>70%-likely
>90%-safe
green: tossups

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, Dems can get candidates in TX, NC and hopefully Bullock sees light and drops out out before IA and run for prez.

Dems only nominate diverse candidates like Harris or Biden. But, Biden should have announced 2/1

[here2view]

Likely D: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire
Lean D: None
Tilt D: Arizona
Tossup: NC
Tilt R: Maine
Likely R: Georgia, Iowa, Texas

Safe states for all the rest, including Alabama

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mnt, ME, TX, IA and NC are awaiting Dems

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely D: MN
Lean D: CO, MI, NH
Toss-Up: AZ
Lean R: GA, ME, NC
Likely R: AL, IA, TX