MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[MT Treasurer]

I really don't see Zinke jumping into this race. If he did, it would probably hurt Republican chances here more than help them. Anyway, two other candidates are in: James Dean (R) and his wife Sarah Dean (D). Yeah, she's running a Democrat, so Tester now gets his first primary challenger. Obviously both of them will lose.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link.

[Maxwell]

Rosendale reads like a B-teamer to me. This will be a toss-up cause Trump won it by 20 points or so, but its probably Tilt D because Tester is a rockstar.

[MT Treasurer]

Surprise, surprise! Fagg is in.

[IceSpear]

Surprise, surprise! Fagg is in.

Good lord. His middle school/high school life must have been hell.

[Cactus Jack]

Surprise, surprise! Fagg is in.

Good lord. His middle school/high school life must have been hell.

God hates Faggs.

[Heisenberg]

Licensegate: Troy Downing's hearings (over illegally buying and transferring hunting licenses) to begin November 15.

[Heisenberg]

More Licensegate: Candidate Troy Downing (R-San Diego) claims a California home as his primary residence, and receives tax breaks there.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Fagg is a rather unfourtanate last name.

[MT Treasurer]

Any update on this race?

Posting this here because it's nice to have one thread for one race.

The GOP primary is basically a three-way race between Rosendale, Downing and Fagg. We'll see who emerges victorious - Rosendale has an edge, but it's still very early. Like JMT said in the other thread, Fagg (the former Yellowstone County Judge) is touting the endorsements of Marc Racicot, Judy Martz, Rick Hill, Stan Stephens and Danny Rehberg, but I'm not sure if that's going to help him win the primary, and that's putting it mildly. Unlike the other Republicans running for Senate, Fagg has also praised McConnell (which might explain why McConnell hasn't thrown his support behind Rosendale yet) and is trying to portray himself as the center-right/traditional conservative Establishment/Anti-Bannonite choice in this race. I'm leaning toward supporting Rosendale, Downing is way too hawkish for my taste and too easy to attack and Fagg strikes me as quite overrated and Denny Rehberg 2.0.

As for the competitiveness of this race, it's probably Lean D at this point, honestly. Some people have also rated it Likely D, but no one really thinks it's a Tossup. I'm still skeptical of the "Tester has this" hype, but I'm beginning to doubt that Republicans have the necessary resources to win this race, particularly since the NRSC "experts" don't really seem to consider this a top-tier race anyway. Given the national environment and high Democratic enthusiasm, Tester's significant fundraising advantage (whoever the Republican nominee is, he will face an onslaught of negative ads, without the cash to respond in kind), the Democrats' high floor as well as the MT Democratic Party's strong organization, I've moved it from Tossup to Lean D, though Democrats would be dumb to take this race for granted. If Republicans lose this race, they really have no one to blame but themselves.

[IceSpear]

Any update on this race?

Posting this here because it's nice to have one thread for one race.

The GOP primary is basically a three-way race between Rosendale, Downing and Fagg. We'll see who emerges victorious - Rosendale has an edge, but it's still very early. Like JMT said in the other thread, Fagg (the former Yellowstone County Judge) is touting the endorsements of Marc Racicot, Judy Martz, Rick Hill, Stan Stephens and Danny Rehberg, but I'm not sure if that's going to help him win the primary, and that's putting it mildly. Unlike the other Republicans running for Senate, Fagg has also praised McConnell (which might explain why McConnell hasn't thrown his support behind Rosendale yet) and is trying to portray himself as the center-right/traditional conservative Establishment/Anti-Bannonite choice in this race. I'm leaning toward supporting Rosendale, Downing is way too hawkish for my taste and too easy to attack and Fagg strikes me as quite overrated and Denny Rehberg 2.0.

As for the competitiveness of this race, it's probably Lean D at this point, honestly. Some people have also rated it Likely D, but no one really thinks it's a Tossup. I'm still skeptical of the "Tester has this" hype, but I'm beginning to doubt that Republicans have the necessary resources to win this race, particularly since the NRSC "experts" don't really seem to consider this a top-tier race anyway. Given the national environment and high Democratic enthusiasm, Tester's significant fundraising advantage (whoever the Republican nominee is, he will face an onslaught of negative ads, without the cash to respond in kind), the Democrats' high floor as well as the MT Democratic Party's strong organization, I've moved it from Tossup to Lean D, though Democrats would be dumb to take this race for granted. If Republicans lose this race, they really have no one to blame but themselves.

Will Racicot jump in?

/bronz

[edtorres04]

Thank you MT Treasurer for answering my question. 

Do you think Fagg would have an advantage over Rosendale in a general election vs Tester since Fagg is from Billings?  I think Tester would need to win Billings in order to win statewide.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Fagg is a rather unfourtanate last name.

Endorsed just so I can hear people on TV say Senator Fagg

[MT Treasurer]

Do you think Fagg would have an advantage over Rosendale in a general election vs Tester since Fagg is from Billings?  I think Tester would need to win Billings in order to win statewide.

1. No (yes, he has relatively high name recognition in the Billings area and comes from a prominent political family, but nominating him for that reason alone would be dumb).

2. No, he doesn't need to win Yellowstone County at all. In fact, I'd be very surprised if he managed to win it again in 2018, though I'm sure others will disagree with me on that. Republicans need to win it by at least 8 points in order to win the race, and since the county usually reports its results very early, it won't be long until we know how competitive/close the election is.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/958738521895907330

@jontester raised $1.5 million in the fourth quarter and has $6.3 million on hand for #MTSen.

http://www.kxlh.com/story/37331349/republican-us-senate-candidates-fagg-rosendale-report-latest-fundraising-totals

Fagg - $615,000 in 2017 (Q4 actual unclear)

Rosendale - $434,000 COH in Q3 2017 (Q4 $330,000)

Downing - $307,221 COH in Q3 2017 (Q3 $492,234)

[Xing]

MT, you mentioned Republicans needing to win Yellowstone by about 8 to beat Tester. What would you say are some of the other county targets for the Republicans or for Tester? Would you say that Cascade county is a decent bellwether for this race? I realize it's been a bit more Democratic than the statewide vote as a whole, but I imagine a Republican candidate would at least need to come close to winning it in order to win statewide.

[edtorres04]

Fagg meets with WH political director:

http://www.ktvq.com/story/37519579/fagg-meets-white-house-officials-and-talks-montana-senate-race

I'm curious if anyone things that Foxx or Zinke will reconsider getting in this race?  Or are Montana Republicans fairly happy with the field here?

[KingSweden]

Curious how Fagg is getting out ahead of Rosendale

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fagg meets with WH political director:

http://www.ktvq.com/story/37519579/fagg-meets-white-house-officials-and-talks-montana-senate-race

I'm curious if anyone things that Foxx or Zinke will reconsider getting in this race?  Or are Montana Republicans fairly happy with the field here?

At this point Zinke is badly damaged goods and Foxx wants to be Governor.

[BudgieForce]

How does one pronounce Fagg?

[Holmes]

How does one pronounce Fagg?

Very carefully and within context.

[Unironic Kamala Harris for President Supporter]

How does one pronounce Fagg?

Very carefully and within context.

I guess it’s okay he’s running in Montana with that name rather than San Francisco.

[Doimper]

How does one pronounce Fagg?

Fay-gee. How else would you pronounce it?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How does one pronounce Fagg?

Very carefully and within context.

Judge Fagg?

[Brittain33]

Have fun with the Fagg jokes guys, just going to point out that one of your moderators has been out as a gay man for over 20 years so don't get too carried away.

[libertpaulian]

Have fun with the Fagg jokes guys, just going to point out that one of your moderators has been out as a gay man for over 20 years so don't get too carried away.

C'mon, you have to admit the name spelling IS unfortunate.