MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[IceSpear]

Obamacare is far more controversial than Jackson. Voters can barely name any cabinet members, let alone recollect a specific incident months before the election. If Tester can get away with voting for Obamacare (which was on literally 100% of voters minds in 2012 and most people in Montana disliked it), I don't see why a random cabinet members that barely any voters will remember will matter. Tester also had a very credible opponent in 2012 too.

Seriously LL, you are a political nerd who has not worked in your entire life. Most voters are not political nerds and don't follow everything 24/7. People tend to vote on bread and butter issues (e.g health care), not some random appointment. I know you're like a 16 year old kid or whatever and you aren't actually working or raising a family, which is why you are so out of touch with the average American voter.


Tester could very well lose because of his liberal voting record, but I don't think this VA thing will even lower his vote share by 0.5%. The media loves making up things that could be damaging because they need to produce articles to get ad revenue (aka $$, which you will learn when you enter the workforce). It's far more likely that immigration or some other issue is what brings Tester down.

Good to see someone on this forum has a brain. Seriously, how many people do you think even know who "Ronny Jackson" is? How many of this tiny group do you think are swing voters? How many of this tiny group of swing voters do you think are going to remember this 6 months from now, let alone base their vote on it? Just lol.

People who are such Trump sycophants that they'd get fired up about Tester voting against some random cabinet nominee are already rock solid Republican banked votes to begin with.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obamacare is far more controversial than Jackson. Voters can barely name any cabinet members, let alone recollect a specific incident months before the election. If Tester can get away with voting for Obamacare (which was on literally 100% of voters minds in 2012 and most people in Montana disliked it), I don't see why a random cabinet members that barely any voters will remember will matter. Tester also had a very credible opponent in 2012 too.

Seriously LL, you are a political nerd who has not worked in your entire life. Most voters are not political nerds and don't follow everything 24/7. People tend to vote on bread and butter issues (e.g health care), not some random appointment. I know you're like a 16 year old kid or whatever and you aren't actually working or raising a family, which is why you are so out of touch with the average American voter.


Tester could very well lose because of his liberal voting record, but I don't think this VA thing will even lower his vote share by 0.5%. The media loves making up things that could be damaging because they need to produce articles to get ad revenue (aka $$, which you will learn when you enter the workforce). It's far more likely that immigration or some other issue is what brings Tester down.

Good to see someone on this forum has a brain. Seriously, how many people do you think even know who "Ronny Jackson" is? How many of this tiny group do you think are swing voters? How many of this tiny group of swing voters do you think are going to remember this 6 months from now, let alone base their vote on it? Just lol.

People who are such Drumpf sycophants that they'd get fired up about Tester voting against some random cabinet nominee are already rock solid Republican banked votes to begin with.

This reminds me of when the January government shutdown was going to spell doom for the Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Early GE predictions:

Tester vs. Rosendale (Lean D): 49.5% Tester (D), 45% Rosendale (R)
Tester vs. Fagg (Likely D): 51% Tester (D), 43% Fagg (R)
Tester vs. Downing (Lean/Likely D): 51% Tester (D), 44.5% Downing (R)

Not getting my hopes up.

[GMantis]

Unofficial results of the Republican primary:

[BBD]

http://www.kpax.com/story/38399740/gop-nominee-rosendale-backs-out-of-first-scheduled-debate-with-sen-tester

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Maryland Matt chickens out of the debate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.kpax.com/story/38399740/gop-nominee-rosendale-backs-out-of-first-scheduled-debate-with-sen-tester

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Maryland Matt chickens out of the debate.

Sad

[MT Treasurer]

What “Independent” would use the term “Maryland Matt” unironically? Hmm.

Anyway, here’s another nice map:



A Republican winning Yellowstone by 40 and still losing statewide is pretty much unprecedented, I believe.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1014870413816430592

Tester bringing out some newspaper ads as Trump visits Montana

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1014870413816430592

Tester bringing out some newspaper ads as Trump visits Montana

Now that's how you win reelection as a Montana Democrat!

[ajc0918]

Great news for Senator Tester!

Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/396303-judge-boots-green-party-from-montana-ballot-in-boost-to-tester

[KingSweden]

Great news for Senator Tester!

Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/396303-judge-boots-green-party-from-montana-ballot-in-boost-to-tester

Nice!

[OneJ]

Great news for Senator Tester!

Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/396303-judge-boots-green-party-from-montana-ballot-in-boost-to-tester

Nice!

[Pyro]

Great news for Senator Tester!

Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/396303-judge-boots-green-party-from-montana-ballot-in-boost-to-tester

Needlessly sordid move from Judge Reynolds to pick apart petition signatures for ballot access.
Steve Kelly hardly stood as a serious threat to Tester's shot at re-election, in any case.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Great news for Senator Tester!

Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/396303-judge-boots-green-party-from-montana-ballot-in-boost-to-tester

Nice!

[Zaybay]

Great news for Senator Tester!

Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/396303-judge-boots-green-party-from-montana-ballot-in-boost-to-tester

Good! It was clear that candidate was a plant by the GOP. The green party should just be dissolved. They tried to change the Ds from the outside and failed, the DSA was able to from the inside. They have no point, they are just a protest vote.

[IceSpear]

Great news for Senator Tester!

Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/396303-judge-boots-green-party-from-montana-ballot-in-boost-to-tester

Nice!

[MT Treasurer]

So far, Republicans have basically repeated all of their 2012 mistakes in this race - they’re being outspent 10 to 1, letting the Tester campaign define Rosendale early without hitting back effectively, and their ground game (or lack thereof) is a joke compared to the Democrats' huge ground game and domination of the airwaves. It’s not just the Tester campaign, Williams is also taking her race very seriously (more so than Gianforte, it seems). If Republicans were putting even half the effort into this race that they’ve been putting into ND (where they’ve been running a pretty good campaign so far), this race would be much more competitive than it is now. However, the MT GOP/NRSC "experts"/Rosendale campaign really seem intent on blowing this race big time.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So far, Republicans have basically repeated all of their 2012 mistakes in this race - they’re being outspent 10 to 1, letting the Tester campaign define Rosendale early without hitting back effectively, and their ground game (or lack thereof) is a joke compared to the Democrats' huge ground game and domination of the airwaves. It’s not just the Tester campaign, Williams is also taking her race very seriously (more so than Gianforte, it seems). If Republicans were putting even half the effort into this race that they’ve been putting into ND (where they’ve been running a pretty good campaign so far), this race would be much more competitive than it is now. However, the MT GOP/NRSC "experts"/Rosendale campaign really seem intent on blowing this race big time.

Do think think reporter beater can blow this?

[MT Treasurer]

Do think think reporter beater can blow this?

He could lose, right now I’d rate it Lean R, Gianforte by 2-5. But it’s honestly humiliating for the MT GOP that a R+11 state is more likely to have two Democratic Senators and a D governor in 2021 than two Republican Senators and a R governor.

[Virginiá]

Do think think reporter beater can blow this?

He could lose, right now I’d rate it Lean R, Gianforte by 2-5. But it’s honestly humiliating for the MT GOP that a R+11 state is more likely to have two Democratic Senators and a D governor in 2021 than two Republican Senators and a R governor.

I dunno. Honestly, I think PVI is the wrong way to look at it. Democrats have always been decently strong in Montana at the state level. It's really only post-FDR that Democrats weakened at the presidential level, and from the turn of the 20th century, Democrats have represented Montana in the Senate far more than Republicans have.

I'm obviously no expert on Montana and the nuances of their politics, but Republicans seem to be only a slightly better fit at the federal level than Democrats. If you look at their wiki page and completely blot out the presidential column from your vision, then Montana doesn't look very Republican at all.

[Thunder98]

Do think think reporter beater can blow this?

He could lose, right now I’d rate it Lean R, Gianforte by 2-5. But it’s honestly humiliating for the MT GOP that a R+11 state is more likely to have two Democratic Senators and a D governor in 2021 than two Republican Senators and a R governor.

I dunno. Honestly, I think PVI is the wrong way to look at it. Democrats have always been decently strong in Montana at the state level. It's really only post-FDR that Democrats weakened at the presidential level, and from the turn of the 20th century, Democrats have represented Montana in the Senate far more than Republicans have.

I'm obviously no expert on Montana and the nuances of their politics, but Republicans seem to be only a slightly better fit at the federal level than Democrats. If you look at their wiki page and completely blot out the presidential column from your vision, then Montana doesn't look very Republican at all.

Montana is the Inter-Mountian West version of West Virginia.

[Virginiá]

Montana is the Inter-Mountion West version of West Virginia.

I don't know if WV is the best example. The history of partisan power in each state is wildly different. Democrats were far more dominant in WV from the New Deal - 2000s. In Montana, they never had that kind of power but have always managed to keep the state at parity between the two parties insofar as state and Congressional politics is concerned.

[mencken]

Montana is the Inter-Mountion West version of West Virginia.

I don't know if WV is the best example. The history of partisan power in each state is wildly different. Democrats were far more dominant in WV from the New Deal - 2000s. In Montana, they never had that kind of power but have always managed to keep the state at parity between the two parties insofar as state and Congressional politics is concerned.

Montana only elected two Republican Senators during that time period.

[YE]

Montana is the Inter-Mountion West version of West Virginia.

I don't know if WV is the best example. The history of partisan power in each state is wildly different. Democrats were far more dominant in WV from the New Deal - 2000s. In Montana, they never had that kind of power but have always managed to keep the state at parity between the two parties insofar as state and Congressional politics is concerned.

Montana only elected two Republican Senators during that time period.

While generally voting GOP at the presidential level. WV basically only voted R’s in landslides.

[Virginiá]

Montana only elected two Republican Senators during that time period.

Yes I know, but my posts were concerning the state as a whole and not just Senatorial elections.