MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone want to guess what that MSU Billings poll will show? My guess is Tester +9 or something like that.

Here are Testers last two Elections

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/MT/S/01/

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MT/senate/

Yet, Montana Polls claim Tester to win by 24. Ridiculous.

MSU Billings had Bullock winning by 12 in October 2016. He won by 4 on election day, so yeah, MT polling isn’t always the best, although that Tester +24 poll really does take the cake.

[2016]

Anyone want to guess what that MSU Billings poll will show? My guess is Tester +9 or something like that.

Here are Testers last two Elections

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/MT/S/01/

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MT/senate/

Yet, Montana Polls claim Tester to win by 24. Ridiculous.

MSU Billings had Bullock winning by 12 in October 2016. He won by 4 on election day, so yeah, MT polling isn’t always the best, although that Tester +24 poll really does take the cake.

Tester is the slight Favourite I think BUT no way he is up by more than 5 Points. No way.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone want to guess what that MSU Billings poll will show? My guess is Tester +9 or something like that.

Here are Testers last two Elections

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/MT/S/01/

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MT/senate/

Yet, Montana Polls claim Tester to win by 24. Ridiculous.

MSU Billings had Bullock winning by 12 in October 2016. He won by 4 on election day, so yeah, MT polling isn’t always the best, although that Tester +24 poll really does take the cake.

Tester is the slight Favourite I think BUT no way he is up by more than 5 Points. No way.

Mayyybee Tester +6, but yeah, I pretty much agree. But like I said, don’t be surprised if that poll has him up by double digits.

[MT Treasurer]

Okay, so we have...

University of Montana (Missoula): Tester +24
Montana State University Bozeman: Tester +3
Montana State University Billings: Tester +9

Pains me to say it, but Bozeman >>>> Billings >>>>>>>>>> Missoula

[ON Progressive]

If there's a "worst poll of the cycle" contest, that MSU-Missoula poll will be up there.

There's going to be McLaughlin polls more accurate than that one which is hilarious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If there's a "worst poll of the cycle" contest, that MSU-Missoula poll will be up there.

There's going to be McLaughlin polls more accurate than that one which is hilarious.

Nothing will ever beat that one poll that had a Democratic incumbent in a solid D coastal OR district losing by 20+ to his no-name GOP opponent.

[MT Treasurer]

Our forum's resident #populists are going to love this:

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1055568925075750912

[IceSpear]

Our forum's resident #populists are going to love this:

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1055568925075750912

If Tester runs this as an ad he really might win by 24 points after all.

[MT Treasurer]

If Tester runs this as an ad he really might win by 24 points after all.

All been done before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joQi27QG7Cs
Even Rosendale ran one this year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_wLNVRnYo8

This all reflects badly on the state, honestly. Remember when Atlas told us that swing voters base their votes on "issues"?

[IceSpear]

If Tester runs this as an ad he really might win by 24 points after all.

All been done before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joQi27QG7Cs
Even Rosendale ran one this year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_wLNVRnYo8

This all reflects badly on the state, honestly. Remember when Atlas told us that swing voters base their votes on "issues"?

LOL!

Atlas thinks every single swing voter reads the entire "issues" page on each candidate's website (even the write-ins!), makes a pros/cons chart for each candidate on Microsoft Word, carefully weighs their options for weeks/months, then finally chooses a candidate to support based off rational analysis and logical evidence. lol

[Pollster]

Guy from Pharos Research claims to have Tester +6 and Gianforte +1

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1055917093692960769

[IceSpear]

Guy from Pharos Research claims to have Tester +6 and Gianforte +1

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1055917093692960769

I honestly don't think there are going to be legions of Tester/Gianforte voters. I think they both win narrowly, but if the hype is real about Tester and he wins by a big margin, I highly doubt that Gianforte wins simultaneously.

[MT Treasurer]

I honestly don't think there are going to be legions of Tester/Gianforte voters. I think they both win narrowly, but if the hype is real about Tester and he wins by a big margin, I highly doubt that Gianforte wins simultaneously.

I don’t think anyone has ever claimed that there will be legions of Tester/Gianforte voters, it’s just that I don’t buy the polls showing Tester winning in a landslide and doing 20-30 points better than Heidi Heitkamp. MT polling can be even worse than NV polling sometimes, and this year it has been particularly bad. While I could see Tester winning by 6 points in a big wave, that’s basically the best-case scenario for him, and there’s really no indication that the House race is much more competitive than the Senate race. But we’ll find out in eight days who was right.

[IceSpear]

I honestly don't think there are going to be legions of Tester/Gianforte voters. I think they both win narrowly, but if the hype is real about Tester and he wins by a big margin, I highly doubt that Gianforte wins simultaneously.

I don’t think anyone has ever claimed that there will be legions of Tester/Gianforte voters, it’s just that I don’t buy the polls showing Tester winning in a landslide and doing 20-30 points better than Heidi Heitkamp. MT polling can be even worse than NV polling sometimes, and this year it has been particularly bad. While I could see Tester winning by 6 points in a big wave, that’s basically the best-case scenario for him, and there’s really no indication that the House race is much more competitive than the Senate race. But we’ll find out in eight days who was right.

Have you forgotten about Charlie Cook and Gravis? lol

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/MTPRND/status/1057673272651788288

helps matt, but probably too late now.

[MT Treasurer]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm, I wonder who could be behind those mailers? 🤔🤔🤔 Maybe *gasp* the same people who propped up Dan Cox in 2012 and ran ads touting him as the "true conservative" in that race? Nah, no way.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MTPRND/status/1057673272651788288

helps matt, but probably too late now.

I've also read that he's still planning on continuing to campaign.

[TheSaint250]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This stupid trick is getting annoying.

[Bidenworth2020]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm, I wonder who could be behind those mailers? 🤔🤔🤔 Maybe *gasp* the same people who propped up Dan Cox in 2012 and ran ads touting him as the "true conservative" in that race? Nah, no way.

Is that your finger MT Treasurer??? wow!

[Arkansas Yankee]

So this is how Tester wins.

And so many of you have the audacity to criticize Trump.

There actually was no Trump collusion with Russiagate.

I will bet there was Tester collusion in lettergate.  What a bogus cow shooting jerk.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

So this is how Tester wins.

And so many of you have the audacity to criticize Trump.

There actually was no Trump collusion with Russiagate.

I will bet there was Tester collusion in lettergate.  What a bogus cow shooting jerk.

yep, but remember...Tester is probably gonna lose

[libertpaulian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm, I wonder who could be behind those mailers? 🤔🤔🤔 Maybe *gasp* the same people who propped up Dan Cox in 2012 and ran ads touting him as the "true conservative" in that race? Nah, no way.

Is that your finger MT Treasurer??? wow!

THE INFAMOUS FINGER!

[libertpaulian]

Does anyone in MT buy the Change Research poll showing Rosendale with last-minute momentum?

[houseonaboat]

Does anyone in MT buy the Change Research poll showing Rosendale with last-minute momentum?

Aligns with the Politico article where Burgess Everett said GOP internals showed this as a close race. CR also had an interesting bit about how Montana has fewer independent-identifying voters. But it completely contradicts a.) the national environment b.) Tester's own favorables in Montana and c.) most other polls.

So I'm going to say no, but what I could see happening is Tester clearing 50% of the vote and Rosendale getting in 48+%, and very little third party voting, which fits in with the idea of fewer independent-leaning voters that CR mentioned in their tweets.

[libertpaulian]

Does anyone in MT buy the Change Research poll showing Rosendale with last-minute momentum?

Aligns with the Politico article where Burgess Everett said GOP internals showed this as a close race. CR also had an interesting bit about how Montana has fewer independent-identifying voters. But it completely contradicts a.) the national environment b.) Tester's own favorables in Montana and c.) most other polls.

So I'm going to say no, but what I could see happening is Tester clearing 50% of the vote and Rosendale getting in 48+%, and very little third party voting, which fits in with the idea of fewer independent-leaning voters that CR mentioned in their tweets.

That makes sense.  I remember that Rehberg led in a poll a few days before the election.  We all know how that turned out.