MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

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Hopefully he runs, but according to MT Olszewski is an Ok candidate so if he doesn't its ok.

[MT Treasurer]

Rosendale says he's uncommitted on the Senate race at the moment

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Doesn't really sound like he wants to run, honestly. Now that's the MT Republican Party I know, LOL.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Rosendale doesn't run, Tester is about as Safe as Kaine (i.e. could go down if everything goes sour for Dems, but will be fine otherwise)

[MT Treasurer]

If Rosendale doesn't run, Tester is about as Safe as Kaine (i.e. could go down if everything goes sour for Dems, but will be fine otherwise)

No, these races aren't even comparable, and Tester is nowhere near as safe as Kaine (who wouldn't even go down in a GOP wave, btw). Geez.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Rosendale doesn't run, Tester is about as Safe as Kaine (i.e. could go down if everything goes sour for Dems, but will be fine otherwise)

No, these races aren't even comparable, and Tester is nowhere near as safe as Kaine (who wouldn't even go down in a GOP wave, btw). Geez.

I clearly view Kaine on a different level than you do.

[Heisenberg]

If Rosendale doesn't run, Tester is about as Safe as Kaine (i.e. could go down if everything goes sour for Dems, but will be fine otherwise)

No, these races aren't even comparable, and Tester is nowhere near as safe as Kaine (who wouldn't even go down in a GOP wave, btw). Geez.

I clearly view Kaine on a different level than you do.

The only way Kaine doesn't win reelection is him either losing the primary or dropping out unexpectedly. This is his seat as long as he wants it, NOVA isn't trending back to the right, and Kaine also did well in the Richmond suburbs last year as Clinton's running mate. Those two areas alone should be too much for any Republican, even a very popular, moderate, competent one in a strong R wave.

[Heisenberg]

Rosendale and Arntzen decline pay increase.

[RogueBeaver]

He's in.

[TheSaint250]

He's in.

Is he a good candidate that could win this?

[Heisenberg]

He's in.

Is he a good candidate that could win this?

I'd say so. He's the best candidate other Zinke and even Fox, IMO.
Also, I hope he wins his primary and does it fairly easily, I'm worried hat the primary will be nasty and divisive, and could damage the candidate for the general election.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He's in.

Is he a good candidate that could win this?

He could definitely win, but I'd say he starts as a slight underdog (right now this is probably toss-up tilt-D).  Despite what TNVolunteer and possibly Heisenberg will claim, the general consensus is that neither candidate is gonna win by more than 3-5 points at most (in fact, it'll probably be a 1-3% race no matter who wins).

[Heisenberg]

He's in.

Is he a good candidate that could win this?

He could definitely win, but I'd say he starts as a slight underdog (right now this is probably toss-up tilt-D).  Despite what TNVolunteer and possibly Heisenberg will claim, the general consensus is that neither candidate is gonna win by more than 3-5 points at most (in fact, it'll probably be a 1-3% race no matter who wins).

Huh? The part about the state being extremely polarized and the race being super close and coming down to the wire is exactly what he and I say.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He's in.

Is he a good candidate that could win this?

He could definitely win, but I'd say he starts as a slight underdog (right now this is probably toss-up tilt-D).  Despite what TNVolunteer and possibly Heisenberg will claim, the general consensus is that neither candidate is gonna win by more than 3-5 points at most (in fact, it'll probably be a 1-3% race no matter who wins).

Huh? The part about the state being extremely polarized and the race being super close and coming down to the wire is exactly what he and I say.

Don't you guys say most Democrats think MT is safe D or something?

[krazen1211]

I believe that Rosendale will win.

[SATW]

Very good news. Hopefully he makes this a close race and can have a chance of winning!

[Xing]

Toss-Up. My current prediction is that Tester still wins, but only by about his 2012 margin, maybe even a little less.

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Great News
Tossup

[MT Treasurer]

Toss-Up. My current prediction is that Tester still wins, but only by about his 2012 margin, maybe even a little less.

Why "only"? Did you expect him to win by more than 3 or 4 points? I know it's controversial on this site, but I really don't see him doing better than a 5-point win or so, and that's assuming everything goes right for him. He has a very high floor, but also a pretty low ceiling.

[Xing]

Toss-Up. My current prediction is that Tester still wins, but only by about his 2012 margin, maybe even a little less.

Why "only"? Did you expect him to win by more than 3 or 4 points? I know it's controversial on this site, but I really don't see him doing better than a 5-point win or so, and that's assuming everything goes right for him. He has a very high floor, but also a pretty low ceiling.

I said "only" just to emphasize that I think it will be close, not to suggest that I thought he would win by a lot. I've always had this race as a Toss-Up, or Tilt D at the most.

[Coraxion]

Pffft. Lean D.

[MT Treasurer]

Zinke’s wife’s tweet suggests endorsement in Senate race

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Obviously not surprising since the Zinkes and Downing are close friends. Downing is the only Republican currently running who I could see beating Rosendale, but if the primary were held today I think Rosendale would win. In any case, keep an eye on this guy. 

[Heisenberg]

Downing charged with violating Montana's hunting license laws, pleads not guilty.

[Figueira]

Downing charged with violating Montana's hunting license laws, pleads not guilty.

On the face of it this probably wouldn't be a big deal in Montana ("darned authoritarian liberals trying to stop me from hunting!"), but what will really screw him is that the violation was for not living in Montana.

[heatcharger]

Zinke under investigation for use of private jets.

Will he resign so fast like Tom Price that he could run against Tester? Discuss.

[Heisenberg]

Zinke under investigation for use of private jets.

Will he resign so fast like Tom Price that he could run against Tester? Discuss.

LOL. If he did, that scandal would probably damage him.