MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Not everyone who voted Trump in 2016 is a partisan Republican. Not everyone who approves of him is writing of Democrats entirely. Tester could very well keep his seat. That is a scary thought =(

[MT Treasurer]

Tester will more likely than not win this race, but it should be obvious to anyone at this point that this was never "Likely D" or less likely to flip than Nevada, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or New Jersey, lol.

[Xing]

Tester will more likely than not win this race, but it should be obvious to anyone at this point that this was never "Likely D" or less likely to flip than Nevada, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or New Jersey, lol.

Why do you think he'll win this race? It looks like he needs a miracle to pull it out.

[CookieDamage]

Tester... please...

[RFayette]

Tester will more likely than not win this race, but it should be obvious to anyone at this point that this was never "Likely D" or less likely to flip than Nevada, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or New Jersey, lol.

Why do you think he'll win this race? It looks like he needs a miracle to pull it out.

My back-of-the-envelope calculations of the counties/# of precincts remaining shows this as a complete jump ball.  538 has it 55-45 Rosendale. 

[Woody]

Tester is doomed. This is what you get for betraying your constituents.

[Shadows]

Tester should win by 4-5% easily. Should be his biggest margin in a Senate race. Most of the votes from Missoula are left !

Too bad about Gianforte winning again !

[Gass3268]

I'm not sure what people are talking about. Tester has an 85% chance of winning via NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-montana-elections.html

[MT Treasurer]

Tester will more likely than not win this race, but it should be obvious to anyone at this point that this was never "Likely D" or less likely to flip than Nevada, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or New Jersey, lol.

Why do you think he'll win this race? It looks like he needs a miracle to pull it out.

Rosendale’s underperforming in the most populous counties (populous by MT standards, obviously), and the outstanding vote favors Democrats. Sure, he’ll win Beaverhead, but that’s not going to be enough if he’s only ahead by 0.7% right now. This is looking like Tester +1.5-2 to me.

[Xing]

Tester will more likely than not win this race, but it should be obvious to anyone at this point that this was never "Likely D" or less likely to flip than Nevada, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or New Jersey, lol.

Why do you think he'll win this race? It looks like he needs a miracle to pull it out.

Rosendale’s underperforming in the most populous counties (populous by MT standards, obviously), and the outstanding vote favors Democrats. Sure, he’ll win Beaverhead, but that’s not going to be enough if he’s only ahead by 0.7% right now. This is looking like Tester +1.5-2 to me.

Ah, I suppose we'll have to wait until tomorrow to know for sure. Well, you were certainly right that this race was never a sure thing for Democrats (I agreed), and if Tester does win, he should consider himself lucky that a Republican is currently president.

[Shadows]

Rosendale is 9000 ahead with 70% of Missoula left. Tester can pick up 10-12-14K votes there but this will go down to the wire. Probably another 0.2 or 0.5% margin. This looks bad !

[MT Treasurer]

Ah, I suppose we'll have to wait until tomorrow to know for sure. Well, you were certainly right that this race was never a sure thing for Democrats (I agreed), and if Tester does win, he should consider himself lucky that a Republican is currently president.

Definitely. I always got PA-SEN 2016 vibes from this race, and I still think Rosendale would have won had the NRSC gotten involved earlier and treated MT as a top tier race from the very beginning.

Anyway, I really don’t see a path for Rosendale here.

[Storr]

Rosendale only up by ~1,100 according to CNN.

[IceSpear]

Tester will more likely than not win this race, but it should be obvious to anyone at this point that this was never "Likely D" or less likely to flip than Nevada, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or New Jersey, lol.

Are you telling me "expert" Charlie Cook was wrong about Tina Smith and Angus King being more vulnerable than Tester? I don't believe his ratings have ever led us astray!

[IceSpear]

Tester got double digits in Garfield County! Quist and Hillary couldn't do it.

#Populism

[IceSpear]

Rosendale only up by ~1,100 according to CNN.

Assuming CNN's results are accurate (big assumption), all of the remaining vote is in the Tester counties of Missoula, Cascade, Gallatin, and Park, so he should narrowly squeak by. I'd feel more confident about saying that if CNN's site wasn't glitches galore this whole night.

[Heisenberg]

On Decision Desk, 96.26% reporting.
Matt Rosendale   193,479   48.90%   
Jon Tester (inc)   190,809   48.22%

Park County (all), Yellowstone (3 precincts), Gallatin (1 precinct), Cascade (2 precincts) withstanding

[Shadows]

On Decision Desk, 96.26% reporting.
Matt Rosendale   193,479   48.90%   
Jon Tester (inc)   190,809   48.22%

Park County (all), Yellowstone (3 precincts), Gallatin (1 precinct), Cascade (2 precincts) withstanding

Yea, Weird. Decision Desk & NYT are not matching at all.

NYT is @ 82% reporting & Rosendale ahead by 2200 votes with only 23 out of 52 precincts reporting in Missoula. And Tester up 19.8/10.3 (ahead by 7.7K votes with 45% of Missoula in).

DD has Missoula @ 100% with same vote tallies ( 19.8/10.3). So one of them is obviously wrong.

If NYT is right, then Tester can make up 7-8K votes easily in Missoula & is 2K odd down. So who knows who is right.

Sinema has lost by 12K Votes. Nelson by 39K. So all close race seem to go GOP way !

[Shadows]

Rosendale only up by ~1,100 according to CNN.

Assuming CNN's results are accurate (big assumption), all of the remaining vote is in the Tester counties of Missoula, Cascade, Gallatin, and Park, so he should narrowly squeak by. I'd feel more confident about saying that if CNN's site wasn't glitches galore this whole night.

CNN is showing 200.7/199.2 (Rosendale ahead by 1.5K) with 73% of Missoula in (19.8/10.3 -7.5K Tester). If only Missoula is left, Tester may sneak through but there are 3 different numbers about pending Missoula votes.

[Coldstream]

Any ideas when the result is expected in this race?

[DabbingSanta]

Well, Tester has pulled ahead now with 99% in. 2100 vote margin!

[Xing]

Yeah, they called it for Tester. I guess I just remembered the Democratic counting bias in Montana being more consistent. Looks like his margin will be 2-3%. I'm sure MT Treasurer will love the upcoming #analysis about how #Populist Tester survived in Trump country and is therefore a political titan with god-like abilities to win close races, LOL.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like Tester's fellow hard-workin', straight-shootin' #populists in Chouteau County (where Tester grew up and has a farm) abandoned him. Tester lost the county this year after winning it in 2012.

[Bidenworth2020]

Looks like Tester's fellow hard-workin', straight-shootin' #populists in Chouteau County (where Tester grew up and has a farm) abandoned him. Tester lost the county this year after winning it in 2012.

he still won in big sandy, though

[IceSpear]

Looks like Tester's fellow hard-workin', straight-shootin' #populists in Chouteau County (where Tester grew up and has a farm) abandoned him. Tester lost the county this year after winning it in 2012.

That's okay, he made up for it with neoliberal corporatists in Bozeman who loved Denny Rehberg.