MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[MT Treasurer]

Post high quality Atlas #analysis here.

[MT Treasurer]

Zinke considering

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Surprise! /s

[MT Treasurer]

GOP actively courting Fox

[MT Treasurer]

With Gianforte likely to win the special election for the House, he could likely be a main contender for Governor in 2020. And with Zinke gone as the senate candidate against Tester in 2018, and no other republican set to take his place, this is likely Tim Fox's best opportunity. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for it. Tester vs Fox would be a toss up in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree with this. IMO Fox should go for it. It will be a Tossup, but it's not as if he would have an easy time winning a gubernatorial race in 2020 either.  

If Fox doesn't run, Buttrey would also be okay. Even Scott Sales would be acceptable if the alternative is O'Neill.

[MT Treasurer]

You're not wrong, but I feel like the fact that it happened during a Trump win in the state by over 20 points, suggests and extreme weakness. Add in the fact that this is a special election and I think this race is pure tossup.

Oh, I definitely agree that this is a Tossup. But the coattail effect really isn't that strong in a state like Montana, in fact it never has been.

[MT Treasurer]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/montana/articles/2017-05-17/storage-company-ceo-files-to-run-against-tester-in-2018

On Wednesday, the head of a California-based self-storage company filed to run against U.S. Sen. Jon Tester of Montana in 2018, the second Republican so far with plans to challenge the two-term Democrat.

Troy Downing, 50, filed his paperwork with the Federal Election Commission on May 8, but did not planned a public announcement until later this month, he said in an interview with The Associated Press on Wednesday.

More interesting was this part, though:

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[MT Treasurer]

MT Treasurer, are there any decent Dems who could potentially run for the row offices?

Well, if one of Rosendale/Fox/Stapleton runs and beats Tester, Bullock will appoint someone to fill the vacancy - and that person would have a very good chance of winning in 2020. Similarly, if one of them runs for governor, Democrats could certainly win an open seat. I think Jesse Laslovich and Mike Cooney (assuming they don't run for governor) would be good options. If not, then someone from the MT legislature - I'd say Casey Schreiner, Dick Barrett, Ed Lieser, Zach Brown and John Fleming would be pretty strong. That being said, beating these Republican incumbents would still be very tough. The only one I could see going down is Elise Arntzen.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm not sure whether he will actually run for Senate, but Yellowstone County District Judge Russell Fagg (R) is stepping down this fall and considering a future political career.

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http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/district-judge-russell-fagg-resigning-to-start-his-own-law/article_5f9859c4-7f5d-5a77-a8ed-575965239fac.html

[MT Treasurer]

Also:

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http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/06/10/gop-senate-hopeful-makes-trip-washington/385328001/

I like both Rosendale and Olszewski, actually.

[MT Treasurer]

Not surprising. Unfortunately, I think Daines might be more likely to lose than Tester, but I still think both races are Tossups. If the election were held today, Tester would win.

Btw: Would it be a good idea to make this a general MT-2018 thread for both the Senate AND the House race? I mean, both races are going to be fairly competitive, so why not.

[MT Treasurer]

Rosendale to make his decision within this month

[MT Treasurer]

Rosendale says he's uncommitted on the Senate race at the moment

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Doesn't really sound like he wants to run, honestly. Now that's the MT Republican Party I know, LOL.

[MT Treasurer]

If Rosendale doesn't run, Tester is about as Safe as Kaine (i.e. could go down if everything goes sour for Dems, but will be fine otherwise)

No, these races aren't even comparable, and Tester is nowhere near as safe as Kaine (who wouldn't even go down in a GOP wave, btw). Geez.

[MT Treasurer]

Toss-Up. My current prediction is that Tester still wins, but only by about his 2012 margin, maybe even a little less.

Why "only"? Did you expect him to win by more than 3 or 4 points? I know it's controversial on this site, but I really don't see him doing better than a 5-point win or so, and that's assuming everything goes right for him. He has a very high floor, but also a pretty low ceiling.

[MT Treasurer]

Zinke’s wife’s tweet suggests endorsement in Senate race

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Obviously not surprising since the Zinkes and Downing are close friends. Downing is the only Republican currently running who I could see beating Rosendale, but if the primary were held today I think Rosendale would win. In any case, keep an eye on this guy. 

[MT Treasurer]

I really don't see Zinke jumping into this race. If he did, it would probably hurt Republican chances here more than help them. Anyway, two other candidates are in: James Dean (R) and his wife Sarah Dean (D). Yeah, she's running a Democrat, so Tester now gets his first primary challenger. Obviously both of them will lose.

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Link.

[MT Treasurer]

Surprise, surprise! Fagg is in.

[MT Treasurer]

Any update on this race?

Posting this here because it's nice to have one thread for one race.

The GOP primary is basically a three-way race between Rosendale, Downing and Fagg. We'll see who emerges victorious - Rosendale has an edge, but it's still very early. Like JMT said in the other thread, Fagg (the former Yellowstone County Judge) is touting the endorsements of Marc Racicot, Judy Martz, Rick Hill, Stan Stephens and Danny Rehberg, but I'm not sure if that's going to help him win the primary, and that's putting it mildly. Unlike the other Republicans running for Senate, Fagg has also praised McConnell (which might explain why McConnell hasn't thrown his support behind Rosendale yet) and is trying to portray himself as the center-right/traditional conservative Establishment/Anti-Bannonite choice in this race. I'm leaning toward supporting Rosendale, Downing is way too hawkish for my taste and too easy to attack and Fagg strikes me as quite overrated and Denny Rehberg 2.0.

As for the competitiveness of this race, it's probably Lean D at this point, honestly. Some people have also rated it Likely D, but no one really thinks it's a Tossup. I'm still skeptical of the "Tester has this" hype, but I'm beginning to doubt that Republicans have the necessary resources to win this race, particularly since the NRSC "experts" don't really seem to consider this a top-tier race anyway. Given the national environment and high Democratic enthusiasm, Tester's significant fundraising advantage (whoever the Republican nominee is, he will face an onslaught of negative ads, without the cash to respond in kind), the Democrats' high floor as well as the MT Democratic Party's strong organization, I've moved it from Tossup to Lean D, though Democrats would be dumb to take this race for granted. If Republicans lose this race, they really have no one to blame but themselves.

[MT Treasurer]

Do you think Fagg would have an advantage over Rosendale in a general election vs Tester since Fagg is from Billings?  I think Tester would need to win Billings in order to win statewide.

1. No (yes, he has relatively high name recognition in the Billings area and comes from a prominent political family, but nominating him for that reason alone would be dumb).

2. No, he doesn't need to win Yellowstone County at all. In fact, I'd be very surprised if he managed to win it again in 2018, though I'm sure others will disagree with me on that. Republicans need to win it by at least 8 points in order to win the race, and since the county usually reports its results very early, it won't be long until we know how competitive/close the election is.

[MT Treasurer]

Great news for Democrats:

Libertarian Rick Breckenridge is running again

If Republicans outperform everyone’s expectations and the race is tight, he could tip it to Tester and/or the Libertarian candidate in the House race could help Heenan win.

[MT Treasurer]

I read a Montana newspaper saying libertararians may underpform in the Montana senate race due to rosendale’s Libertarian bent. Thoughts?

Depends on the quality of Rosendale’s (or whoever wins the primary) campaign and whether Democrats run ads touting him as the “real conservative” in the race like in 2012. Even though this year’s race is considered a lot less competitive than the one in 2012, it will still be a race to the bottom, so I’d be surprised if he got less than 3%. Breckenridge isn’t the strongest Libertarian candidate, but he got 3.3% when he ran against Zinke in 2016.

Btw: Today is the filing deadline for the June primary.

[MT Treasurer]

Oh goody. I can't wait for the green party to take away votes from Tester.

Nah, the race would have to be very close for them to hurt Tester, which seems unlikely at this point. At best, it will cancel out the Libertarian spoiler effect, and even that’s debatable. I wouldn’t worry about this if I were you.

[MT Treasurer]

The first GOP Senate primary debate was held on March 22, you can listen to it here if you want.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats are trying to remove the Green Party from the ballot

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[MT Treasurer]

God, Fagg (MUH fourth-generation Montanan) is unbelievably unlikable and going really negative on Downing and especially Rosendale. Downing is actually winning the debate so far IMO. Olszewski is the one I agree the most with, so of course he’s not going to win the nomination. Rosendale is doing okay, but not really impressive.

Yeah, safe to say that Tester is favored.