MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[Virginiá]

Do think think reporter beater can blow this?

He could lose, right now I’d rate it Lean R, Gianforte by 2-5. But it’s honestly humiliating for the MT GOP that a R+11 state is more likely to have two Democratic Senators and a D governor in 2021 than two Republican Senators and a R governor.

I dunno. Honestly, I think PVI is the wrong way to look at it. Democrats have always been decently strong in Montana at the state level. It's really only post-FDR that Democrats weakened at the presidential level, and from the turn of the 20th century, Democrats have represented Montana in the Senate far more than Republicans have.

I'm obviously no expert on Montana and the nuances of their politics, but Republicans seem to be only a slightly better fit at the federal level than Democrats. If you look at their wiki page and completely blot out the presidential column from your vision, then Montana doesn't look very Republican at all.

[Virginiá]

Montana is the Inter-Mountion West version of West Virginia.

I don't know if WV is the best example. The history of partisan power in each state is wildly different. Democrats were far more dominant in WV from the New Deal - 2000s. In Montana, they never had that kind of power but have always managed to keep the state at parity between the two parties insofar as state and Congressional politics is concerned.

[Virginiá]

Montana only elected two Republican Senators during that time period.

Yes I know, but my posts were concerning the state as a whole and not just Senatorial elections.

[Virginiá]

Look at the change in Tester's exit polls (by age):


2012:




2018:




Massive support among young voters

[Virginiá]

Virginia and her love of exit polls that show Dems crushing it with young voters knows no bounds

I need serious help

Seriously though, I'm not even sure this means all that much. It's a pretty sharp turn over one election, but maybe it means a large group of voters that is more open to Democrats that can counter-balance the shift with Boomers.

But I can't help but be curious why Tester got such deep support from young people. He had more rounded support last time. Did Montana start some chain of hipster ranches or something?

[Virginiá]

There was a strong third party vote in 2012, not so this time. That could explain some of it.

That will do. Populism clearly explains the rest