The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

According to Gallup, the two presidents who needed the shortest period of time to drop to a 35% approval rating for the first time (prior to Trump) were Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan. Truman needed 17 months in office, Reagan 24 months.

The presidents who never dropped to 35% in their entire time in the White House were Eisenhower, Kennedy, Ford, Clinton, and Obama.

[I Won - Get Over It]

According to Gallup, the two presidents who needed the shortest period of time to drop to a 35% approval rating for the first time (prior to Trump) were Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan. Truman needed 17 months in office, Reagan 24 months.

The presidents who never dropped to 35% in their entire time in the White House were Eisenhower, Kennedy, Ford, Clinton, and Obama.

The only candidate that became president with favorability rating under 35%:
Trump 



Yougov MARCH 26-28 vs MARCH 19-21 

All Adults, 1500
41 (-/-)
47 (+1)


RV, 1300
45 (+1)
50 (+1)

[Fusionmunster]

According to Gallup, the two presidents who needed the shortest period of time to drop to a 35% approval rating for the first time (prior to Trump) were Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan. Truman needed 17 months in office, Reagan 24 months.

The presidents who never dropped to 35% in their entire time in the White House were Eisenhower, Kennedy, Ford, Clinton, and Obama.

The only candidate that became president with favorability rating under 35%:
Trump 

While true, he started his presidency in the mid 40%.

[I Won - Get Over It]

538 added a new feature to their tracker. Trump vs former Presidents. Cool!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/#historical

[Hindsight was 2020]

538 added a new feature to their tracker. Trump vs former Presidents. Cool!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/#historical

So the only other president who Trump comes close to is Ford........boy that is some winning

[Person Man]

It is definitely time for the Democrats to make their comeback or last stand.

[Ronnie]

It is definitely time for the Democrats to make their comeback or last stand.

Does "last stand" imply that they're at risk of dying as a political entity?  If so, I disagree with that premise.  Both parties have been in awful shape in recent history, and have still been able to come back as strong as ever.  I would say that we should begin evaluating whether Democrats are dying if Republicans start getting 40% of the Latino vote, 20% of the black vote, and control all three branches of government in 2022.  Not sooner than then, though.

[Mr. Morden]

My question is, at what point in a president's term do his job approval #s show a statistically meaningful correlation with what their job approval will be at the midterms, and with what it'll be when they face reelection?  That is, did the presidents who had particularly high job approval #s two months in also have high job approval #s at the mid terms, and vice versa?

[Mr. Morden]

My question is, at what point in a president's term do his job approval #s show a statistically meaningful correlation with what their job approval will be at the midterms, and with what it'll be when they face reelection?  That is, did the presidents who had particularly high job approval #s two months in also have high job approval #s at the mid terms, and vice versa?

That doesn't answer my question. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

Have the strongly dissapproves broken 50% yet?

[Mr. Morden]

My question is, at what point in a president's term do his job approval #s show a statistically meaningful correlation with what their job approval will be at the midterms, and with what it'll be when they face reelection?  That is, did the presidents who had particularly high job approval #s two months in also have high job approval #s at the mid terms, and vice versa?

That doesn't answer my question. 

Well...Trump is an anomaly...nobody has ever had low ratings this early on so all we can do is speculate that it will remain in the 30s.

But that is what I'm questioning, about it remaining in the 30s.  Yes, I realize that Trump is outside the range of previous presidents at this point in their terms.  But within the range taken by previous presidents, what is the correlation coefficient between their job approval at this early stage and their job approval at the time of the midterms (and at their reelection)?  And if the correlation is low, at what point does the correlation become high?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Please someone explain to me how a President who has approvals between 35% and 43% can effectively govern when his own party can't even pass his legislation?

Seems to me we have a lame duck President here.

[Holmes]

Please someone explain to me how a President who has approvals between 35% and 43% can effectively govern when his own party can't even pass his legislation?

Seems to me we have a lame duck President here.

And this is at the beginning of his term with a good economy. If there is any economic downturn, that high disapproval rate will solidify and tumble more.

[Phony Moderate]

Please someone explain to me how a President who has approvals between 35% and 43% can effectively govern when his own party can't even pass his legislation?

Seems to me we have a lame duck President here.

And this is at the beginning of his term with a good economy. If there is any economic downturn, that high disapproval rate will solidify and tumble more.

Probably, but not neccessarily. One of the problems from Trump's POV at the moment is that things are too quiet. He comes off as someone who thrives when things are in the sh**tter; maybe he could use such a situation to his advantage.

[heatcharger]

PPP national poll of RVs:

Approve 40% (-3)
Disapprove 53% (+3)

They'll have the full results out tomorrow.

[Person Man]

It is definitely time for the Democrats to make their comeback or last stand.

Does "last stand" imply that they're at risk of dying as a political entity?  If so, I disagree with that premise.  Both parties have been in awful shape in recent history, and have still been able to come back as strong as ever.  I would say that we should begin evaluating whether Democrats are dying if Republicans start getting 40% of the Latino vote, 20% of the black vote, and control all three branches of government in 2022.  Not sooner than then, though.

That will happen if Democrats can't deliver. They have to deliver or die if the Republicans now have so little credibility. What do you say of an opposition that is not effective against such an unpopular establishment? There is opportunity now, but the opposition must deliver

[ProgressiveCanadian]

So basically with Gallup it's this?

[Holmes]

So basically with Gallup it's this?

Remove MS, LA, TN and maybe ID, yeah.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

So basically with Gallup it's this?

Delusional.

Just did a universal swing from 2016. See nothing delusional about it.

[Dr. Arch]

So basically with Gallup it's this?

Delusional.

Come on, man. 35% is horribly low. It's not that the map will look like that, but his approvals are around there.

[Person Man]

So basically with Gallup it's this?

Delusional.

Just did a universal swing from 2016. See nothing delusional about it.

1.) Universal swing isn't a thing, especially since I guess he is much more unpopular in states like CA than in KS. If he's at 70% disapproval in CA and NY, that explains a lot.
2.) You're focusing on one poll (Gallup) and ignoring others (PPP, etc.).
3.) The election is more than three years away. We don't even know who the Democratic candidate will be.
4.) Democrats aren't winning in Tennessee or Kansas.

@Arch: I definitely agree that his numbers are awful (unsurprisingly) - and I disapprove of his presidency as well -, but this map is just nonsense. These landslides are unlikely to happen in a polarized country.

Most likely, he will lose the trifecta next year and that will balance things out to where he wins by a similar margin as in 2016 in 2020...or the fact he will still most likely have the senate will cause him to lose by about half the margin the polls currently suggest. I see him losing all the states he didn't win by double digits save maybe SC for Iowa. Either this or he is gone before 2020 or the country has moved too far to the right to ever not vote Republican.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

So basically with Gallup it's this?

Delusional.

Just did a universal swing from 2016. See nothing delusional about it.

1.) Universal swing isn't a thing, especially since I guess he is much more unpopular in states like CA than in KS. If he's at 70% disapproval in CA and NY, that explains a lot.
2.) You're focusing on one poll (Gallup) and ignoring others (PPP, etc.).
3.) The election is more than three years away. We don't even know who the Democratic candidate will be.
4.) Democrats aren't winning in Tennessee or Kansas.

@Arch: I definitely agree that his numbers are awful (unsurprisingly) - and I disapprove of his presidency as well -, but this map is just nonsense. These landslides are unlikely to happen in a polarized country.

Jesus, do you read anything before posting? I said Gallup at the top (Which has been doing approvals of presidents for quite some time now) of my post, and secondly this in an approval map...idiot.

[Holmes]

Yeah it was quite clearly an approval map, but with the right candidate and a similar approval rating, I could see Kansas going Democratic. Certainly before Missouri or Indiana.

[Holmes]

It's just a stupid map based off a stupid poll.

[The_Doctor]

Gallup has been consistently the most bearish on Trump. So take it accordingly. The Silver Aggregate has him down 53-41, which is a better sense of where he is. I doubt very much that he's at 35% (requiring a 25% collapse among his voters).

He's probably underwater heavily in deep blue states and underwater in purple states and positive in red states.