The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

Very steady.

President Trump is going to need some miracles to get re-elected. I don't see him changing the political culture.  People who thought him a sick joke in 2016 simply consider him a monstrosity. The civilized opposition to him is now as loud as the Tea Party was against Obama at the corresponding time even if it is wittier. 

Dude come on if you don't see how easily Trump can turn out "real American" against Warren or how the Bernie crowd will protest vote Booker you are not paying attention

40% approval probably means that he can get 46% of the binary vote in a re-election bid, at least if the pattern holds for Presidents holds for Senators and Governors based upon approval numbers at the start of the campaign.  The big question is whether he can get approval in the mid-40s, which is about where Barack Obama was in early 2012 and barely winning a majority of the presidential vote. That was Barack Obama facing one of the strongest challengers that an incumbent ever faced.

If Donald Trump is around 40% in his approval rating, then he stands to lose 54-46 without considering third-party nominees. And that's facing a challenger stronger than Hillary Clinton.

Paradoxically that would allow him about as much of the vote as he got in 2016 -- but that would not be enough with which to win.

The question is how he can get his approval ratings to the mid-40s by early 2020 to have a meaningful chance to win re-election with a solid campaign against an average challenger. To even get there he must avoid any economic meltdown, personal scandal (financial or sexual),  international catastrophe, or bungling of a natural disaster.

You tell me. I lack the imagination. I can;t see him leading America into some new thought. Maybe Republicans can legislate voting laws to their corrupt advantage -- which would be a catastrophe for American democracy which would be moribund until a revolution or utter defeat and occupation. That would remind me of a "Stain This Carpet" contest in which people put stains on a carpet sample and sent it in for testing. One example was "battery acid" which was disqualified because the acid the carpet fiber. It looked very bad, nonetheless.

Beware of political elites smearing our democratic fabric with the equivalent of sulfuric acid on behalf of the politicians you like for now. People that you care about might vanish for no reason and have nasty deaths by execution or being worked to exhaustion on starvation rations. 

At this stage I cannot see how Republicans can re-elect the President in 2020 without cheating.

Democrats are likely to have a stronger challenger and face a very tainted President.  Obama barely won despite being an above-average President. Donald Trump is simply awful. Replace Donald Trump with Mitt Romney in some alternate universe, and I see Mitt Romney as a sure winner in 2020.  But we are all stuck with Donald Trump. I won;t claim to have the last laugh -- laughing at the catastrophe that is the Trump Presidency is like laughing at a fire burning a historical building.       
 

[I Won - Get Over It]

40% approval probably means that he can get 46% of the binary vote in a re-election bid, at least if the pattern holds for Presidents holds for Senators and Governors based upon approval numbers at the start of the campaign.  The big question is whether he can get approval in the mid-40s, which is about where Barack Obama was in early 2012 and barely winning a majority of the presidential vote. That was Barack Obama facing one of the strongest challengers that an incumbent ever faced.

If Donald Trump is around 40% in his approval rating, then he stands to lose 54-46 without considering third-party nominees. And that's facing a challenger stronger than Hillary Clinton.

According to 538 his approval rating among All Adults is about 41%, but
it is 44% among LV/RV. If the number are about the same in 2020, he has pretty good shot..

[I Won - Get Over It]

Kaiser Health Tracking Poll,  April 17-23 compared to March 28 - April 3

http://files.kff.org/attachment/Topline-Kaiser-Health-Tracking%20Poll-Late-April-2017-The-Future-of-the-ACA-and-Health-Care-and-the-Budget


All adults:
45% (+4)
50% (-5)

[Matty]

Gallup 4/25-4/27

Disapprove 52 (-3)
Approve 43 (+3)

[windjammer]

Why is he suddenly becoming more popular?

[Ronnie]

Why is he suddenly becoming more popular?

The media has set expectations so low for him that if he doesn't do something absolutely horrendous for a week, he gets a significant bump. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Socialism would recession-proof the economy.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Why is he suddenly becoming more popular?

The media has set expectations so low for him that if he doesn't do something absolutely horrendous for a week, he gets a significant bump. 

The media is broken. They belong to be as popular as Congress until Cable TV finally dies altogether.

[Technocracy Timmy]

He has a high floor with his Republican base staying solidly in his corner.

The sudden uptick must come from the fact that his administration is starting to "normalize" so to speak. His first 3-4 weeks felt like decades to some people including me. People feel a lot more relaxed now and have successfully adjusted to this new normal.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Actually, it looks more like a fluctuation about the mean (of 40-41% for all adults).

[Ronnie]

Gallup

Approve: 43% (nc)
Disapprove: 51% (-1%)

[The Free North]

Socialism would recession-proof the economy.

Uh, what?

[hopper]

Trump's rebound seems to be fading a bit.

There was a rebound?

[hopper]

When it comes to a possible recession we do have the issue of Trump wanting to bring back coal/manufacturing jobs when the economy is moving green an normally when a president is clashing with the economic environment it has bad results (Hoover/Carter)

The country isn't "going green" really fast at all.

[hopper]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...

Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.

How are Republicans going to cut wages? There is no 60 Republican votes in the US Senate to do that even if they wanted to cut wages.

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.

I don't think Congressional Republicans are gonna do "National Right to Work" Legislation but I could always be wrong. They aren't abolishing the Federal Minimum Wage. MSM would have a lot of fun with that if they abolished the Federal Minimum Wage. Still there no 60 Votes in the US Senate to do pass these 2 things. You need 60 Votes.

[Dr. Arch]

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Good thing Minnesota made the right choice.

[pbrower2a]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...

Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.

How are Republicans going to cut wages? There is no 60 Republican votes in the US Senate to do that even if they wanted to cut wages.

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.

I don't think Congressional Republicans are gonna do "National Right to Work" Legislation but I could always be wrong. They aren't abolishing the Federal Minimum Wage. MSM would have a lot of fun with that if they abolished the Federal Minimum Wage. Still there no 60 Votes in the US Senate to do pass these 2 things. You need 60 Votes.

I hope that I am wrong about that conjecture. The Republican Party and its political fronts (Club for Growth, Freedom Works!, etc.) -- are extremely hostile to labor unions. I can imagine Senate Republicans putting an end to the filibuster to achieve the corporate dream of cheap labor that it can work on compulsory, unpaid subbotniks just to meet an order.  Big Business would love to drive wages down by compelling workers to submit to the power of corporate bureaucracies to exploit the bargaining weaknesses of individual workers.

Could they get away with it? Nothing could more promote strikes and union organizing. The biggest benefit of union membership is collective bargaining that ensures that people get paid alike for similar jobs. This is most obvious with machine-paced work, whether the machine be an assembly line or a computer.    

[heatcharger]

Morning Call / Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania:

39% Approve
54% Disapprove

[pbrower2a]

I doubt he'd win PA again if that poll is in the vicinity of being accurate, but I doubt we see a 2008-style Democratic performance there again. Western PA/the T is basically Alabama now.

Naw -- more like Kentucky. Away from the Scranton-Harrisburg-Philadelphia triangle and greater Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is very thinly populated, so it weights Pennsylvania's vote about like the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

I look at the 39% approval rating as something so poor that Trump can hardly go that low. At this point that looks worse than Goldwater's 1964 performance (34.70%) in Pennsylvania. 

...I wonder how long it will be before Appalachia starts recognizing the Republican Party for having done little for them. 

[Beet]

I doubt he'd win PA again if that poll is in the vicinity of being accurate, but I doubt we see a 2008-style Democratic performance there again. Western PA/the T is basically Alabama now.

Naw -- more like Kentucky. Away from the Scranton-Harrisburg-Philadelphia triangle and greater Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is very thinly populated, so it weights Pennsylvania's vote about like the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

I look at the 39% approval rating as something so poor that Trump can hardly go that low. At this point that looks worse than Goldwater's 1964 performance (34.70%) in Pennsylvania. 

...I wonder how long it will be before Appalachia starts recognizing the Republican Party for having done little for them. 

The Philadelphia metro area casts only 2 million votes or about 33% of the total. Even if you add Scranton, Harrisburg and the more remote suburbs you have 3 million, but still only half the total statewide vote.

[Gass3268]

Gallup

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota was one of the barest losses for Donald Trump in 2016.

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http://www.startribune.com/poll-minnesotans-give-donald-trump-40-approval-rating/420823893/
 

Morning Call / Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania:

39% Approve
54% Disapprove

Pennsylvania may have been a one-time charm for the GOP in 2016. If President Trump can;t get the disapproval numbers below 54%, then he risks losing Pennsylvania by double digits in 2020.

Favorability:

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[JA]

Based on the map by pbrower2a the Norheast would be a catastrophe for Trump. I'm a bit surprised he's polling better in Minnesota than Pennsylvania or Virginia, but that does align with the Midwest's trend towards Trump in recent polling and the Northeast's strong opposition to him.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

That approval map looks a lot like Hillary's polling map in parts of the summer. It's basically the 2016 election if sexism, misogyny, and double standards didn't exist.

[pbrower2a]

Based on the map by pbrower2a the Northeast would be a catastrophe for Trump. I'm a bit surprised he's polling better in Minnesota than Pennsylvania or Virginia, but that does align with the Midwest's trend towards Trump in recent polling and the Northeast's strong opposition to him.

...But he still loses  all the states bordering the Great Lakes except perhaps Indiana.  I'm not sure about him winning Indiana at this point. Not counting New York and Pennsylvania, that's 94 electoral votes right there. Add the states that border or lie to the north and east of the Potomac, that's another 114 -- 208 before you think of anything to the south or west of those states.

Donald Trump loses in a landslide in a re-election bid unless he cleans up his very bad act.

That approval map looks a lot like Hillary's polling map in parts of the summer. It's basically the 2016 election if sexism, misogyny, and double standards didn't exist.

That stuff might not play so well in 2020. President Trump played to mass vulgarity in order to win support of the common man and ended up stabbing him in the back.