Hindsight Is 2020

[LLR]

I'm elated! #DownWithCuomo

[Blackacre]

Wednesday, August 14th, 2019

There are eleven Democratic Candidates for President. Nobody in the last poll got 15%. A majority of delegates are needed to clinch the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Atlanta next year. There aren’t nearly enough Superdelegates after the reduction in their numbers to guarantee to turn a plurality into a majority. This poses a problem for the DNC.

Keith Ellison’s approach to running the Presidential nominating process was to emphasize fairness. He didn’t want candidates prematurely cut off because of national polling and he didn’t want the party to prematurely coalesce around one candidate. The Democratic Establishment, new and old, has mostly stayed on the sidelines. What does that have to do with today’s story? The New York Times just published a piece called “The Agreement: How The DNC Plans to Avert a Convention Nightmare” that revealed the DNC’s attempt to reconcile the need for fairness with the desire to get a definitive nominee.

The DNC has quietly been trying to get all of the candidates to sign an agreement that they would instruct their delegates to support whichever candidate has a plurality of delegates at the convention. The New York Times details some of the conversations between the DNC and the campaigns, including some that are less than enthusiastic about signing the agreement.

“There are no Donald Trumps in this race,” an anonymous DNC operative told The Times, “There is no Democratic candidate who wouldn’t reverse Trump’s tariffs and tax plan, or propose a family leave program, or appoint progressives to the Supreme Court, or help people get affordable healthcare. There’s no Democratic candidate who would be an unacceptable nominee. So I think this agreement is reasonable.

The agreement contains an exception: if the presumptive nominee proves to be unacceptable between the primaries and the convention, the other candidates are free to coalesce around somebody else.
The reaction from the campaigns has been mixed. As of now, seven candidates: Franken, Wolf, Baldwin, Kate Brown, Sherrod Brown, Duckworth, and Booker have all signed the agreement. No word from Warren or Cantwell, and Wyden vocally objected, claiming that it’s just another attempt by the DNC to force the party into line like 2016.

(for what it’s worth, Cuomo never signed it)

The next debate, by the way, is scheduled for the 3rd and 4th of September 2019 and is to be hosted by CNN.

Here’s some new polling data:

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Baldwin: 15%
Sen. Warren: 15%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Sen. Brown: 12%
Sen. Booker: 10%
Mayor de Blasio: 9%
Gov. Wolf: 6%
Gov. Brown: 5%
Sen. Wyden: 4%
Sen. Cantwell: 3%
Sen. Duckworth: 2%

If The Iowa Caucuses Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Baldwin: 18%
Sen. Franken: 16%
Sen. Brown: 15%
Gov. Wolf: 13%
Gov. Brown: 8%
Sen. Warren: 6%
Sen. Duckworth: 6%
Sen. Booker: 5%
Mayor de Blasio: 5%
Sen. Cantwell: 4%
Sen. Wyden: 3%

If The New Hampshire Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 19%
Sen. Franken: 15%
Sen. Booker: 14%
Gov. Brown: 12%
Sen. Wyden: 9%
Sen. Baldwin: 6%
Mayor de Blasio: 6%
Sen. Duckworth: 5%
Sen. Brown: 5%
Sen. Cantwell: 4%
Gov. Wolf: 2%

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Republicans)
President Trump: 67%
Sen. Cruz: 27%

Next time: What exactly is Ted Cruz’s plan to take the nomination from an incumbent President?

[Blackacre]

Merry Christmas! I'm not going to be around enough to post for a little bit, so the next update after this one is going to be on New Year's day. Enjoy this last post of 2016!

Friday, August 16th, 2019


Do you remember the promises Donald Trump made? I do. Do you remember the promises Donald Trump kept? Neither do I. He calls me Lying Ted, but we all know that between me and him, I’m the one who keeps my word!

That was Texas Senator Ted Cruz speaking at a rally in Iowa, trying to build up support in his run against Trump. He actually has some things working in his favour. President Trump’s approval stands at a dismal -21, 36 to 53. The economy was very weak. (though an 8% unemployment rate, compared to 8.5% on election night 2018, indicates signs of improvement.) Finally, there were no other Republicans to crowd the field. No Rubio or Kasich to siphon off #NeverTrump voters. A direct matchup was one Cruz could have won in 2016. But this isn’t 2016, and so Cruz must face a man with the entire RNC at his back and the advantages of incumbency. Among Republican Primary voters, President Trump’s approvals are in the positive, though still not excellent by the standards of the President’s party. (+25, 58 to 33) However, GOP Primary voters do think Trump broke promises, (57 to 21) so that’s where Senator Cruz is pouncing.

He’s gotten decent crowds at his rallies, and has even gotten plenty of money in individual donations, as well as for his Super PAC, Restore America. Polls have been trending towards him, but President Trump hasn’t put that much effort into his campaign yet, so who knows what that would mean next year when the Primaries begin.



Of course, President Trump is attacking him (and everyone else) for campaigning while he’s doing his job, but it was clear that it was only a matter of time before he’d get onto the campaign trail himself.

Next time: We take a look at what’s been going on at the state level, with our new crew of Democratic governors!

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Plog- Tal Schneider's Political Blog

Friday, August 16th, 2019



The Road to the Presidency

Hello, readers, and thank you for your interest.
As we know, the Democratic debates came and went. Already, the influence of the DNC's new approach is clear, and it had a big impact on the debate. Some candidates' chances soared, some plummeted.
As the picture gets clearer, we've decided to introduce a new series- the Road to the Presidency. First, we will assess each candidate, Democrat or Republican, and his or her chances to win the Presidency. Then, we will focus on one candidate, and look at the route he has to take in order to win the White House. Additionally, we'll include a question submitted to the candidate's campaign, or even an interview.
This first part of the series will be longer than usual, and serve as a template for us when we assess each candidate's chances compared to his or herprevious chances, providing a link to this post. Now, let us begin exploring the road to the presidency!

The Prospects

  President Donald J. Trump- 39%
As the incumbent President, and as the opposing party doesn't have a clear frontrunner, Donald Trump is still, inarguably, the likliest person to be President of the United States come January 20th, 2021. But a shaky presidency, bad midterms, and a formidable primary challenge all make his chances not as good as they should be, and Donald Trump will, likely, have to work hard if he doesn't want to be the first President since George H.W. Bush to lose reelection.

  Senator Tammy Baldwin- 12%
The shooting star in the Democratic primary contest ever since the first debate, Baldwin is now tied with Elizabeth Warren for the first place in the polls, and leading the Iowa polls. We also believe that Baldwin would be more likely to defeat Donald Trump in a general election than Warren- she's not only a popular Midwesterner, but also did not have as much time as Warren in the national spotlight, which means that people's opinions about her are more elastic.

  Senator Al Franken- 10%
Although he's only third in the polls, Franken's charisma and popularity make him, in our assessment, liklier to win than his numbers suggest. He's within reach in Iowa, and has already shown himself to be a great debater, so the road to the presidency is wide open for him.

  Senator Elizabeth Warren- 9%
And now, we've reached the elephant in the room. Why did we put the frontrunner as the third likliest Democrat? First of all, arguably, she's declining in the polls. She's been in the national spotlight for a long time, and Democratic voters have shown a desire for something new. She's from Massachusetts, which could allow Trump to frame her as part of the elite, and the Republicans, no doubt, have a large cache of weapons against her. Still, she's a great debater and has been a progressive, anti-Trump leader for a long time, so her chances are still decent.

 Senator Cory Booker- 7%
Booker has one, decisive advantage. Yes, he's a great debater, very chatismatic and on a rise in the polls. But his main advanatage is that he's the clear leader of the establishment Democrats in the race, and the anti-establishment lane is fractured into many pieces. Despite what some think, the establishment is still powerful.

  Senator Sherrod Brown- 7%
After his late entry to the race, we thought that Brown is the likliest Democrat to win. Now that he did not manage to surge to a lead, we no longer think that he's so likely. Still, he's popular in the Midwest, a strong advantage in the general election, a good debater, and very popular among Democrats, giving him a decent chance.

  Senator Ted Cruz- 5%
Cruz's path seems very narrow and odd. In order to upset President Trump and take the nomination from him, he'd probably need a miracle, and even then, a desertion of Trump supporters and an extremely wounding primary could make his chances to win the general election slim.

  Governor Kate Brown- 4%
Despite low polling and low name recognition, Brown has done well in the debate and saw a rise in the polls. Her record seems completely clean, and the fact that she's now one of the two only Governors allows her to use a powerful argument, especially since most of her opponents are Senators serving in Washington, D.C.

  Mayor Bill de Blasio- 3%
De Blasio is polling very well for a mayor, and he's very popular among Democrats for his opposition to Donald Trump, but he still seems to be struggling to make the argument of why he is the right person to replace Trump.

  Governor Tom Wolf- 2%
We have to face it- Tom Wolf is pretty dull. He could be a very compelling candidate, being the governor of a large swing state Trump won in 2016, but that just doesn't cut it, and his prospects to rise seem to rely soley on a victory in Iowa. If he cannot do much better in the next debates, he's doomed.

  Senator Tammy Duckworth- 1%
Duckworth's lifestory is remarkable, and she has the potential to be a very strong candidate. But her campaigning, debating skills and charisma don't shine too brightly, and a life story alone isn't going to cut it. Like Wolf, she has to make a strong improvement in the next debates.

  Senator Ron Wyden- <1%
At first, Ron Wyden seemed to have a surprisingly strong base. Now, after a bad debate, this base seems much smaller. Wyden's opinions on a veriety or subjects like trade are toxic in today's Democratic party, and it seems like his chances to expand his base are slim.

  Senator Maria Cantwell- <1%
Without a strong presence in the national stage, and her messaging doesn't seem to be strong. Like Duckworth, she seems like just another Senator, and she doesn't even have a compelling life story. Worse, her opinions are similar to Wyden, and he seems to be communicating them better. It's pretty clear- Maria Cantwell will not be the next President of the United States.

  Governor Andrew Cuomo- 0%
Even before withdrawing from the race, Cuomo did not seem to have much of a chance. Now, of course, his chance is zero.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Focus
Today, we will be focusing on none other than the rising star- Senator Tammy Baldwin. Here is the interview we had with her:

Hello, Senator Baldwin. Welcome, good of you to come.
Thank you, it's great to be here!

First of all, congratulations on your strong debate performance. How are you feeling since then?
I'm feeling pretty good! You should see my campaign staff, though. They've been elated. I'm telling you this because when you run a campaign, if everyone in your staff is feeling a certain way, it's going to affect you and the campaign. I love seeing my amazing team this happy!

Back in May, when we asked your campaign how can you stand out among all the Midwestern candidates. You replied that when people hear your message, they will join your team. Now, you're tied with Senator Warren for the first spot in the polls. Is this what happened? Your message is resounding?
I think so! *laughs* At the debate I laid out my plan for the country, and if you look at the polls now, I wouldn't call that a coincidence.

As you know, we're interviewing you for a new series in our political blog about each candidate's prospects and road to the Presidency. You are our focus this time. What's your strategy? In this large field, what do you think is your winning message, that will win you the nomination?
I believe what the voters want to see is some actual concrete policies that would help them and this country, coming from a person who could be trusted to put them into practice. Our team has a lot of energy, we have great ideas, and we have a candidate who, if I do say so myself, has a pretty good record in Congress. Now, I have to admit we're not the only campaign with this approach. But what we also offer is a beacon of hope for the members of the LGBT community who are struggling in this country, and for the women and girls who believe that a woman can never be President after what happened three years ago.

Do you think that you're the best candidate to defeat Trump? If so, why?
If you're asking every candidate this question, I can guarantee you you're not going to get a single "no" answer. *laughs* But to answer your question, the reason why I think I'm the best candidate to go up against Trump is that I'm everything he isn't. I have ideas for new policies that would help the middle and working classes, he has no ideas at all. I care about every person in this country, he only cares about his cronies. He's demeaned women and the LGBT community, and I have fought for women's rights and LGBT rights in Congress. I think the American people are sick of Trump and I'm as different a direction as this country can go.

Lastly, I know you will probably prefer not to answer this... But among your opponents in the primary, who do you think would make a good running mate?
Nearly all of them. Most of the people I'm running against are my colleagues and friends in the Senate, and I have a great deal of respect for them. Among the Senators who are running against me now, I know they would have a great time working with me if it came to that, and I feel the same way about them.

So, after that, let us look at Senator Baldwin's path to the Presidency:



Clearly, her first step towards the President must be to continue doing great in debates, even outshining candidates such as Booker, Warren and Franken.
Afterwards, the first victory she must achieve is in Iowa. If she does not win there, she could wane as a candidate. That is clearly a victory she could achieve, but she'll have a fierce battle with Senator Brown, Senator Franken and Governor Wolf.
She will then have to proceed and win most, if not all of the other midwestern states, most importantly Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, Minnesota and of course, Wisconsin. She has a strong appeal to the residents of these states and could win them, but to do that, she will have to set aside her Midwestern rivals.
Another area where she may have strong appeal is the Northeast- her liberal, progressive agenda could resound well with the northeastern liberals, as well as the strong support to lgbt rights and women's rights in this area. But Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker could pose strong obstacles for a victory there.
Then, she will almost certainly have to win California- a state where, again, lgbt and women's rights are widely supported, and liberal, progressive ideas could resound well.
Lastly, she will have to be nominated by the DNC, which could, potentially, be a contested convention. But if Keith Ellison's plan will succeed, and Senator Baldwin will indeed manage to win the areas we've specified, with some victories elsewhere, she will be in a very strong position to be the candidate everyone else coaleses around.
Her last obstacle in the path to the White House will be, most likely, Donald Trump - and with her Midwestern appeal and strong support with the Democratic base, she's well-positioned to defeat him.

Thank you for reading, we will continue following this very interesting election season.

[Blackacre]

Happy new year everyone! Back to the standard update schedule of who the frick knows?

The big story of 2018 was that the Democrats had taken the House from the GOP, and now held it for the first time in a decade. However, while House Democrats are certainly active, (don’t worry, we’ll get to them soon enough) the real activity happened in the states. Democrats took a massive twelve governorships from the GOP, and in many of those states, that control came with control over the state legislatures. Some of what happened was universal and predictable, such as Democratic governors reversing abortion restrictions set in place by their GOP predecessors. Governor Tim Ryan (D-OH) in particular had a field day reversing Kasich’s anti-abortion crusade. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. In today’s look at the Dems in the states, we turn to the twins of the Great Lakes, a pair of Obama-to-Trump states that went from absolute Republican control to absolute Democratic control in 2018.

Michigan

The situation in Flint was actually resolved before current Governor Debbie Dingell took office. In early 2017, many of the same protestors who helped derail DAPL went to Flint to pressure the legislature and Gov. Rick Snyder into fixing the situation. It helped that Congress directed money to Flint to fix what had been broken, and by roughly July 2017, the city had clean drinking water once more.

However, the fact that Gov. Snyder resisted so long and caused the proble in the first place destroyed his reputation. Even with Flint having clean water again, the fact that the water was ever poisoned stayed in Michigan’s memory. Couple that with the national atmosphere in 2018, and it’s easy to see how the state pulled a 180 like it did.

Once in office, Governor Dingell got right to work on undoing Snyder’s work. The state of Michigan quickly abandoned its Right-to-Work laws, re-empowering labor unions. The state also raised its minimum wage from $9.25 per hour to $10.10 per hour, introduced early voting, and reversed the Voter ID laws that were passed in late 2016.

Most importantly of all, Dingell directed state funds to providing as much treatment as possible to the people of Flint who have been inflicted with lead poisoning during the water crisis. Though it’s unclear whether it’ll get any results, especially with Obamacare being derailed, it’s a valiant effort nonetheless.

Wisconsin

The Feingold comeback! Russ Feingold famously lost two senate races in a row against his nemesis Ron Johnson, even underperforming Clinton in the state by 2 points. So how’d we get from the people of Wisconsin saying they didn’t want him around to him being the governor? It’s a long story, and to understand the state it must be told.

Ron Johnson was a reliable vote for almost everything Trump proposed. The Wall, the Muslim Ban, gutting Obamacare, Trump’s tax plan, you name it. He even supported the version of Paul Ryan’s budget that would have gutted Medicare and Medicaid. As people in Wisconsin started facing higher healthcare costs due to the ACA’s gutting, as well as higher prices in general due to Trump’s tariffs, Ron Johnson and the Republicans in general became more and more unpopular. As the economic situation worsened, the Republicans’ fortunes suffered too. In light of all that, in Fall 2017 CNN’s polling team decided to go to Wisconsin and ask its voters a question that piqued some DNC interests:

If You Could Vote Again In The 2016 Senate Election, Who Would You Vote For?
Russ Feingold: 59%
Ron Johnson: 38%

Now, Wisconsin had seen some embarrassing polling misses in 2016, but still, that was a larger lead than Feingold ever had in the actual race’s polling. Did Wisconsin really want Russ Feingold back? He decided there was only one way to find out.

When Feingold entered the Governor’s race, he faced a competitive primary against Rep. Ron Kind. Though early polls showed Kind leading, Feingold pulled ahead due to a well-run campaign and won the primary. Ron Kind returned to Congress, and Feingold advanced to face Scott Walker.

The race fluctuated, and it was one that Walker could have maybe won if things were better for the GOP nationally, but that’s not to take credit away from Feingold: he ran the campaign of his life trying to get one more chance from the state he loved. Among Feingold’s statements: he unambiguously pledged to serve a full four year term if elected, making it clear that he would not run for President. In the end, Wisconsin rewarded Feingold’s tenacity not only with a new job, but with a Democratic state legislature to work with.

Feingold pounced at the opportunity he had been given, eliminating Right to Work in his state and, like Michigan, restoring unions. He raised the minimum wage in his state to $8.25 an hour in 2019, with his bill reaching $10.50 per hour by 2022. He lifted the state’s harsh voter ID laws and changed the state’s tax code. In Walker’s tenure, Wisconsin placed 36th in job growth in the United States. Under Feingold, the state’s on track to rank roughly 17th by the end of 2019. Wisconsin was still harmed by the economic downturn that plagued the nation, but there were certainly states that had it worse.

Next time: We look at another campaign in action!

[GoTfan]

Hope my interview answers are coming soon!

[Blackacre]

Hope my interview answers are coming soon!

You'll have them tomorrow!

[Blackacre]

(campaign image courtesy of Simossad)

Wednesday, August 21st, 2019

Before we look into a campaign today, here’s the latest national polling:

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Warren: 16%
Sen. Baldwin: 15%
Sen. Brown: 12%
Sen. Franken: 11%
Sen. Booker: 9%
Mayor de Blasio: 8%
Gov. Wolf: 6%
Sen. Wyden: 5%
Gov. Brown: 5%
Sen. Duckworth: 3%
Sen. Cantwell: 2%

If The Iowa Caucuses Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Baldwin: 17%
Sen. Brown: 16%
Sen. Franken: 13%
Sen. Warren: 9%
Gov. Wolf: 9%
Gov. Brown: 7%
Sen. Duckworth: 7%
Sen. Booker: 6%
Mayor de Blasio: 5%
Sen. Cantwell: 3%
Sen. Wyden: 1%

If The New Hampshire Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 18%
Sen. Franken: 14%
Sen. Booker: 13%
Sen. Baldwin: 13%
Gov. Brown: 9%
Sen. Brown: 7%
Sen. Wyden: 6%
Mayor de Blasio: 5%
Sen. Duckworth: 5%
Sen. Cantwell: 3%
Gov. Wolf: 1%

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Republicans)
President Trump: 64%
Sen. Cruz: 30%

We’re seeing what happens when the President cares more about his image and business than about being the President. Al Franken is hardworking, trustworthy, and has a strong record of putting the people before special interests in the Senate. America needs a President willing to do the hard work of the job. America needs Al Franken.


I’m Al Franken, and I approve this message.

Senator Al Franken’s in a rather interesting position. He polls top three in both Iowa and New Hampshire at this point in time, and yet remains well behind the leaders in both contests. He has the highest favorability ratings of any Democrat currently in the field within his party (+70 among Democrats) but doesn’t draw nearly the same kinds of crowds as his competitors like Elizabeth Warren or Sherrod Brown. He gives an effective ad, is personable in interviews, and shines on the debate stage, but even he admits that his stump speeches aren’t as strong. The duality of Franken’s campaign even comes down to location: he’s a midwestern senator who’s been re-elected and enjoys high approvals, but he’s also a Jewish New Yorker who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries.

Franken’s campaign is essentially a controlled experiment. He’s a workhorse, not a showhorse, and has been described as “Hillary Clinton without the baggage.” So, could such a candidate prevail in the modern Democratic Party? Alternatively, could a candidate who seems to have everything but charismatic star power succeed? Polling looks decent, the number of debates works in his favour, and he has a well-run campaign behind him, but it’s difficult to say.

Oh, and should he win the nomination, we needn’t worry about his senate seat. A bill signed into Minnesota law in early 2019 affirmed that someone could run for Senate and President simultaneously.

Next time: Something, um... happens.

[GoTfan]

Transcript of a clip from Secular Talk's show on Monday, August 19 2019

Okay, so out show's gotten really high-profile lately and we seem to have been gaining a bit of a following on the Hill. So in keeping with this, I would like to welcome a woman who is a very long way from home, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii's 2nd District. Congresswoman, thank you for being here today.

Thank you for having me!



Let's jump right in. Four years ago you supported Bernie Sanders for the Democratic Presidential nomination after he got steamrolled in the South Carolina primary. Why did you endorse him after he just got crushed by about 20-30 points in a contest?

I was putting in my best effort to stop a consensus from forming that the primary was over just because Bernie lost in South Carolina, and I figured that making my endorsement then would give the message that the primary was still on.

Going off that, you delivered Bernie's nominating speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2016 and when he was declared a write-in candidate in some states he was required to nominate a running mate and he chose you. So my question is, given all this, why have you decided not to run in 2020?

To be honest, it wasn't a decision I was hoping I would make. I put together an exploratory committee like most Presidential candidates do in early 2019, and the purpose of the exploratory committee is to see how likely my campaign would be to get off the ground. What we found is that the primary voters care more about someone who picked high-profile fights with Trump than someone who fought against Hillary Clinton and the DNC. Voters who would have been receptive to my message were also big fans of Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin and Al Franken. I know them well. They're all good, genuine people who I would be very happy to work with in 2021, and I couldn't say the same for Hillary Clinton.

There's also the fact that there's not as much point to running in opposition to the DNC when the DNC has changed so significantly since 2016.

There were some rumblings about you running for the Senate two years ago, but you ultimately rejected it. What's the future for Tulsi Gabbard in politics? David Ige is term-limited in 2022. Are you possibly considering running for Governor of Hawaii?

It's absolutely something I'm considering. I'm actually in close contact with Governor Ige. He's been a wonderful Governor and he's expressed interest in having me take up the mantle after he leaves office.

Could you, at any time, see yourself running for President at any point in the future?

Yes. *laughs* The exploratory committee didn't work out for me this time but things can change drastically in a few years.

Okay, so we're going to have a new tradition on Secular Talk; we're going to end with a silly question. If you were stranded on a deserted island, what three things would you bring with you?

My family, the Game of Thrones books, and a first-aid kit.

Congresswoman and possibly future Governor Tulsi Gabbard, ladies and gentlemen.

[Blackacre]

Friday, August 30th, 2019
Savannah, Georgia

A mass shooting in a shopping mall in Savannah, Georgia today has families grieving and has captured the nation’s attention. 15 people died that afternoon, and 35 others were wounded and are in the hospital, awaiting treatment. Little is known about the motivations of the shooter, 28 year old Samuel Johnson, who killed himself before he could be apprehended by law enforcement.

Georgia Governor Jason Carter put out a public statement: “Fifteen people died in a tragic shooting today, and the lives of everyone in Georgia are poorer for it. In the coming weeks I will do everything I can as Governor to prevent another tragedy like this from happening ever again.”

The Presidential candidates all put out statements offering their condolences for the families of the victims. The Democrats all expressed support for new gun laws, namely background checks. Ted Cruz, meanwhile, expressed his continuing and unwavering support for the Second Amendment.

There was no word from President Trump.

Next time: The Second Democratic Primary Debates!

[Blackacre]

Here’s the national poll that determined the order for debate round 2:

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Baldwin: 14%
Sen. Brown: 13%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Sen. Booker: 8%
Mayor de Blasio: 7%
Gov. Wolf: 6%
Sen. Wyden: 6%
Gov. Brown: 5%
Sen. Duckworth: 3%
Sen. Cantwell: 2%

Round one will feature Warren, Sherrod Brown, Booker, Wolf, Kate Brown, and Cantwell. Round two will feature Baldwin, Franken, de Blasio, Wyden, and Duckworth.

By the way, I'm noticing a lack of punditry. Is it because the two hiatuses have drained interest? Updates are now going to be daily a while, though upon request from a pundit I could delay an update by a day or so.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Here’s the national poll that determined the order for debate round 2:

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Baldwin: 14%
Sen. Brown: 13%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Sen. Booker: 8%
Mayor de Blasio: 7%
Gov. Wolf: 6%
Sen. Wyden: 6%
Gov. Brown: 5%
Sen. Duckworth: 3%
Sen. Cantwell: 2%

Round one will feature Warren, Sherrod Brown, Booker, Wolf, Kate Brown, and Cantwell. Round two will feature Baldwin, Franken, de Blasio, Wyden, and Duckworth.

By the way, I'm noticing a lack of punditry. Is it because the two hiatuses have drained interest? Updates are now going to be daily a while, though upon request from a pundit I could delay an update by a day or so.

I'm still very much interested in this Just waiting for things to write about.

[Blackacre]

Here’s the national poll that determined the order for debate round 2:

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Baldwin: 14%
Sen. Brown: 13%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Sen. Booker: 8%
Mayor de Blasio: 7%
Gov. Wolf: 6%
Sen. Wyden: 6%
Gov. Brown: 5%
Sen. Duckworth: 3%
Sen. Cantwell: 2%

Round one will feature Warren, Sherrod Brown, Booker, Wolf, Kate Brown, and Cantwell. Round two will feature Baldwin, Franken, de Blasio, Wyden, and Duckworth.

By the way, I'm noticing a lack of punditry. Is it because the two hiatuses have drained interest? Updates are now going to be daily a while, though upon request from a pundit I could delay an update by a day or so.

I'm still very much interested in this Just waiting for things to write about.

Great to hear! The second debate will be up tonight at the usual time, hopefully that will give you something to work with

[Blackacre]

Tuesday, September 3rd, 2019
Democratic Primary Debate: Round 2: Part 1

This debate, hosted by CNN, wasn’t as highly rated or memorable as the first, and so won’t receive the same coverage. However, there were still some highlights.

First off, guns. In light of the Savannah tragedy, the candidates were all asked what they could do to decrease the impact of gun violence. Kate Brown talked about a background checks bill that she signed as governor, Wolf talked about similar legislation in his state’s assembly, and Warren spoke of assault weapon bans and limits on ammunition.

The big players on that stage were Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown. Brown had a lot of hype upon his announcement that seemed to go nowhere, but with him still holding a respectable third place in the polls, he was still relevant. Would be be able to take on the frontrunner this time?

Yes.

Obviously there had to be time set aside for the other candidates, but Brown and Warren, who happened to get centre stage, commanded the most attention. They didn’t show much difference on banking regulations, or on infrastructure, or on the minimum wage, but they did tussle over healthcare. Elizabeth Warren wanted a pure single payer system, while Brown expressed a preference for recreating the Affordable Care Act but with a Public Option.

Brown’s argument was that the Affordable Health Care Act provided a lot of people with health insurance that wouldn’t have been available otherwise, and that the bill’s failings were because it was designed with the public option in mind.


But if you look closely at the center of the stage while Cantwell’s digging herself deeper, you can actually see Sherrod Brown smiling! Yeah, he’s smiling! He’s probably thinking, “Yeah man, remember when you sat there and watched me suffer the trade questions? Now it’s your turn, and karma’s a bitch!”

Aside from that, the only major event was when the debate shifted to racial tension and policing. Every candidate on the stage advocated for some form of criminal justice reform, and nobody tried to dodge the issue.

Wednesday, September 4th, 2019
Democratic Primary Debate: Round 2: Part 2: Electric Boogaloo

Night two went similarly. The first question was about guns, and everyone had some kind of plan that wasn’t really any different from the plans from the previous night.

Al Franken showed why he was still considered a viable candidate despite his campaign flaws. His answers on immigration, trade, jobs, and taxes were comprehensive and detailed, as opposed to the one-line vagueness that politicians tend to spout. On the other end of the polling chart, Ron Wyden made a much better case for his brand of Democratic Politics, and was actually able to coherently defend his position on trade, unlike Cantwell.

Baldwin found herself probably wishing she was in the other night, because Franken wasn’t keen on trading barbs and the other frontrunners were absent. So she and de Blasio had an exchange on urban and rural poverty that essentially amounted to both sides accusing the other of ignoring one impoverished group and then claiming that they had policies that would lift both groups up. The exchange boosted de Blasio’s profile but didn’t do a good job of actually showing concrete differences in policy.

Duckworth made an effort to redeem herself from the last debate and largely succeeded. She’s the one who started the criminal justice reform conversation that night, and also talked about veteran care and homelessness.

Overall, a bit of a wash for most of the candidates. The true loser here was Keith Ellison. His experiment of having separate debates was resulting in fragmented and stifled debate. If only one candidate were to drop out, then future debates would only need a single night, but alas...

Next time: The House takes action!

[Blackacre]

Monday, September 9th, 2019

Today the House of Representatives passed the Prevent Future Tragedies Act by a vote of 240-195, despite strong opposition from the Republican Party, the Trump White House, and the NRA. The bill would expand background checks, lengthen the waiting period to buy a gun, and attempt to close the so-called “gun show loophole.” It’s similar in its text to the 2013 gun bill that failed in the Senate.

Despite the bill’s passage, and the widespread support for strengthening background checks in America, the bill’s future looks bleak. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell put out a statement soon after the bill’s passage that he does not intend to bring it to a vote in the Senate. In addition...



Yeah.

While that was happening, new post-debate polling came out.

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Warren: 14%
Sen. Brown: 13%
Sen. Baldwin: 13%
Sen. Franken: 13%
Sen. Booker: 9%
Sen. Wyden: 7%
Mayor de Blasio: 6%
Gov. Wolf: 5%
Gov. Brown: 5%
Sen. Duckworth: 5%
Sen. Cantwell: 1%

Senator Warren remains narrowly ahead, but her lead is still shaky.

Next time: Being a candidate sucks…

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Not Comrade Castro?

[Blackacre]

Not Comrade Castro?

If I wasn't clever enough to think of that, neither is Donald Trump

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Not Comrade Castro?

If I wasn't clever enough to think of that, neither is Donald Trump

True, true.

[Blackacre]

Screw it, I'm doing another one tonight.

Monday, September 9th, 2019


You gotta feel for these candidates. They have to tour the country selling themselves to the American people, giving detailed plans for every single thing they want to do, shaking hands, answering questions, and they’ll still lose for reasons out of their control. Take Elizabeth Warren, who’s currently ahead. Yeah she’s doing fine now, but if at any point she develops a corn allergy she can kiss her dreams of the Presidency goodbye! This is... it’s like the hunger games. No. It’s more brutal than that. It’s!


THE HUNGRY FOR POWER GAMES!


Yes, yes! Hello and welcome to the Hungry for Power Games! Tributes, assemble! Oh, so many of them, vying to represent their districts in the capitol, yearning to be the one to take America in their own unique direction. (It’s the same direction as the rest of the Democrats but with different theme music) Sadly, today we must say goodbye to another tribute. Senator Maria Cantwell, as in I can’t well remember who she is! Ahaha! Yes! She had such promise when she launched her campaign, is a thing that I have heard from the one guy who cared about her campaign. Now, watch all that promise vanish into the night like a thief running off with her poll numbers!


Well, um, yes I do stand by that vote. We wouldn’t have to um, deal with Trump’s tariffs and trade wars if the TPP passed.

Anderson Cooper:
But what about the jobs that might have gone overseas if the TPP passed?

Maria Cantwell:
Well, um, those jobs are already lost because of the President...

Stephen Colbert:
Don’t worry, I won’t make you sit through the rest of that exchange. It was as painful and humiliating as, well, as only polling at 1%. So, with a heavy heart and fond memories of... Senator... Whomever... let us bid farewell, to the fallen!

THE FALLEN
MARIA CANTWELL
DISTRICT: CANTWIN

She may be gone, but ten candidates remain! Next time we’ll give a couple of them the Magnifying Glass!
(Author’s note: In the interest of time, and of getting to the more interesting parts of the story, I’ll be fast forwarding some. The space between September and the Iowa Caucuses will consist of campaign examinations, debates, some state-level action, and the 2019 elections.)

[Blackacre]

Full disclosure here, the campaign magnifying glass stuff I'm doing is less "me doing what the pundits should be" and more "me giving info about the campaign and its strategy that I wouldn't otherwise be able to give."

Basically what I'm saying is "pundits come baaaaaack!"

Anyway, here’s some polling data! The proper update will be up tonight (in about an hour) as per usual.

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Brown: 13%
Sen. Warren: 14%
Sen. Baldwin: 13%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Sen. Booker: 11%
Mayor de Blasio: 6%
Sen. Wyden: 7%
Gov. Wolf: 5%
Gov. Brown: 5%
Sen. Duckworth: 5%

If The Iowa Caucuses Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Brown: 19%
Sen. Baldwin: 17%
Sen. Franken: 13%
Gov. Wolf: 10%
Sen. Warren: 9%
Sen. Duckworth: 8%
Gov. Brown: 6%
Sen. Booker: 5%
Mayor de Blasio: 5%
Sen. Wyden: 2%

If The New Hampshire Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Franken: 14%
Sen. Booker: 14%
Sen. Baldwin: 13%
Sen. Brown: 10%
Gov. Brown: 8%
Sen. Wyden: 7%
Mayor de Blasio: 5%
Sen. Duckworth: 5%
Gov. Wolf: 3%

If the Nevada Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Booker: 13%
Sen. Baldwin: 13%
Sen: Franken: 12%
Sen. Warren: 12%
Sen. Brown: 12%
Mayor de Blasio: 9%
Sen. Wyden: 8%
Sen. Duckworth: 6%
Gov. Wolf: 6%
Gov. Brown: 5%

If The South Carolina Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Booker: 28%
Mayor de Blasio: 25%
Sen. Warren: 10%
Sen. Brown: 10%
Sen. Franken: 7%
Sen. Duckworth: 5%
Sen. Baldwin: 5%
Gov. Wolf: 4%
Gov. Brown: 2%
Sen. Wyden: 1%

[Blackacre]

(image, once again, courtesy of Simossad)


Hi, I’m Tom Wolf. As Governor of Pennsylvania, I’ve balanced budgets, worked with Republicans to improve my state, and done everything I can to help Pennsylvania be a light in this dark economy. Join our team, and we can make America shine the same way.

You gotta feel for Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf. On paper, he should be a strong candidate. He’s the governor of an Obama-to-Trump state, the only such Governor that’s running for President. With Cuomo’s departure, Wolf even has the distinction of being the only candidate to be elected to two full terms as Governor of a state. Wolf’s biggest problem is that he’s running in the establishment lane, aiming for the head and running on electability and competence. The problem? The establishment isn’t here to back him up. Wolf has been endorsed by Senator Casey and the Democratic Pennsylvania Congressional Delegation, but nobody outside PA really cares about supporting its Governor. The field is already crowded with Midwesterners, after all.

So what’s Wolf’s strategy? Capitalise on the level playing field the DNC has given him and hope for the best. He’s done okay at the debates so far, and of course like any Presidential candidate who’s ever represented a rural area he’s been spending a lot of time in Iowa. Iowa is, after all, the one and only state that still uses a caucus to test a candidate’s field operation and skill at retail politics. (but more on that later) A win in Iowa has propelled longshot candidates to relevance before, and while the Wolf campaign hasn’t directly said Iowa is all-important, everybody can kind of tell  Who knows, maybe “I was a midwestern Democratic governor before they were cool” will prove a stronger selling point than it appears to be now.

Having said that, let’s move on to a candidate that’s been getting a lot more attention.



Ah, Elizabeth Warren. The so-called established front runner who’s starting to look like every other “established front runner” from the early stages. Make no mistake, however: Elizabeth Warren has always known she’d have to fight harder than ever before if she wanted the nomination. She knew the field was going to crowd, she knew there would be a backlash to whoever the initial established front runner was. She knew the choices she made in the 2016 primary would prevent her from being the natural heir to Bernie Sanders’ movement, even if she was competing with people who endorsed Hillary Clinton earlier than she did.

So, if she knew this would happen, what’s her strategy now?

Simply put, the Warren campaign is trying to maintain if not her poll numbers, at least the attention and energy she commanded early on. She still has the advantage of being the figure of the modern progressive movement, a title she grabbed onto when she won her Senate seat in 2012 and held during both the Obama and Trump years. She still has those large rallies, she still has lots of individual donations, she still has a base of passionate supporters. She could place third in Iowa and still maintain that. Will it work? Only time can tell. She still hasn’t placed below a tie for first in any of the polls we’ve looked at, and maybe she never will.

Next time: Georgia fights over Background Checks!

[BuckeyeNut]

Why is de Blasio doing so well in South Carolina???

[Blackacre]

Why is de Blasio doing so well in South Carolina???

He's one of the only candidates RN that's doing well with black voters. South Carolina's Democratic Primary Electorate is majority black. Neither de Blasio or Booker are taking that support to an outright lead because they're only pulling support in the 20s, so the black vote is still fractured. But there we go.

[Blackacre]

Wednesday, September 18th, 2019

The Georgia state Senate is still debating a bill that recently passed the Georgia House of Representatives. It would expand background checks within the state’s borders. The bill in question is similar to gun control bills passed in states like Colorado and Connecticut, but the Tragedy Prevention Act of 2019 doesn’t deal in assault weapon bans or ammunition restrictions at all. As Governor Jason Carter said while coming out in support of the bill, “This will not affect law-abiding gun owners in the state of Georgia.”

The bill has gotten some national attention because of its parallels to the House’s attempt to pass a gun safety law, and of course it’s drawn the ire of the NRA and the support of gun safety organisations. Despite all that, outside pressure hasn’t really impacted the debate of the bill in the state Senate. Jason Carter’s apparent lack of any Presidential ambitions certainly helps.

Thursday, September 18th, 2019


I am pleased to sign into law the Tragedy Prevention Act of 2019. With it, we’ve just made our streets a little bit safer, without calling into doubt the right to keep and bear arms.

The bill passed the Senate, 29 to 27, and was signed into law by Governor Carter the same day. However, that’s not the only thing the legislature passed.

Georgia’s runoff rules have been unique in the nation. However, turnout always declines from the election day vote and it creates confusion. With the Libertarian Party gaining strength nationally, and especially in Georgia, the state legislature made an attempt to replace the runoff with something more straightforward, without making spoilers of third party candidates. Maine’s ranked choice voting system went beautifully when put into practice, and on Georgia ballots in November 2019, Georgians will be given the opportunity to adopt the same system.

This amendment has the support of Governor Carter, the Georgia Republican Party, the Georgia Democratic Party, and the Georgia Libertarian Party.

Next time: Another debate! This time, all ten candidates will be sharing the same stage, and the debate will be hosted by CNBC!