2018 Senate Rankings

[BlueSwan]

All my Senate rankings right here, because I know everyone cares about my hot takes.

Nice work! Thanks!

[Sestak]

As of 13 December 2017

AL: SENATOR DOUG
AZ: Toss-Up
CA: Safe D
CT: Safe D
DE: Safe D
FL: Lean D
HI: Safe D
IN: Toss-Up (Formerly Lean R)
ME: Safe I
MD: Safe D
MA: Safe D
MI: Likely D
MN: Safe D
MN(s): Likely D
MS: Safe R
MO: Toss-Up
MT: Likely D (Formerly Lean D)
NE: Safe R
NV: Likely D
NJ: Likely D
NM: Safe D
NY: Safe D
ND: Lean D
OH: Likely D
PA: Likely D
RI: Safe D
TN: Lean R (formerly Likely R)
TX: Likely R
UT: Safe R
VT: Safe I
VA: Safe D
WA: Safe D
WV: Lean D (formerly Toss-Up)
WI: Likely D
WY: Safe R

Potential Special Elections:
AZ(s): Lean R
AR(s): Likely R

[windjammer]

Including AL, my map at this point:

If the election were held today, Democrats would probably win all the green states except maybe Indiana, but it's still early.

Again, there is no doubt whatsoever that Tester, Brown and Manchin would win if the election were held today, but I still think there is at least a path for the GOP in those states (WV in particular, OH and especially MT will be tricky). I'll wait for more polling before I move any of those states to Lean or Likely D.

Why do you believe MS is lean rep?

Why did you move Mccaskill to toss up? It's strange considering it has been a year you have been saying she's doa

[Blackacre]

I had Alabama as a tossup at the end, and I believe that was the right call. Jones won by less than 2 points. But now the race is over, Jones will be seated, and we can move on.

In the wake of Jones' win, however, I'm moving Texas to Leans R. Texas is more Liberal than Alabama, the D nominee there is really good, and Cruz is Cruz. TN stays at Likely R because of the Evan Bayh precedent.

Finally, I'm moving MN-Special to Very Likely D, matching the other MN seat. This is because we've never had (or at least, haven't had in a very long time) a situation where two seats were up in the same year in one state, same day, and they went in two different directions.

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, ME, VT, MD, NM, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
VA, MN, MN-Special, NJ, DE, CT

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WI, OH, ND, WV

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, MT, PA, AZ,

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
IN, AL-Special

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
MO

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TN

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
UT, NE, WY

And here's a visual aid!

(MN-Special will be represented by Iowa in the visual aid)

[Blackacre]

Keep in mind that all polling on non-Alabama races up to now has been sparse and junk, with the possible exception of West Virginia. So we're all just going on gut instinct and priors.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Keep in mind that all polling on non-Alabama races up to now has been sparse and junk, with the possible exception of West Virginia. So we're all just going on gut instinct and priors.

Also, Democrats beat their polling numbers handily in Alabama.

[heatcharger]

[Hoosier_Nick]

Franken's seat is Lean D. If McCain leaves, Lean D. Cotton: Lean R. Cochran: Lean R.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

Well it's been a few months and I have some updates. I'll leave out the Safe D/R states as I don't see a need to cover them again.

Arizona: This one will be competitive I'm sure, but I still have yet to see a viable Republican candidate. Synema looks like the presumptive nominee for the Dems, and with the Democratic Wave I am now expecting in 2018, she has the upper hand. Lean D.

Florida: Rick Scott still hasn't formally declared yet, but I'm just going to assume he's running. With that, this will be an absolutely brutal race, and probably the most interesting to watch in 2018. Nelson usually finds a way to win by substantial margins, but not this time. Tossup.

Indiana: The changing tides over these past few months have changed my view on this race. Donnelly now has a decent shot at holding onto this seat, but it will be a battle. The GOP primary between Messer and Rokita is going to be brutal though, and I'm sure that will hurt the winner of that primary. Tossup.

Maine: This is a weird race, but King should be able to win quite easily, as long as the Dems don't nominate anybody. Likely I

Minnesota (Special): This one will be strange but the Minnesota GOP has a weak bench. Franken's conduct might make the prospects a little better for the GOP, but I really don't see it. Likely D.

Missouri: Still not looking great for McCaskill, even though her prospects are slightly better since I last did this. Josh Hawley is a strong candidate though. Lean R.

Montana: He really shouldn't haven much of a hard time. Likely D.

Nevada: Dean Heller will face a tough primary battle, and he is despised by the Trumpites. He doesn't really have a base group of supporters, and Jacky Rosen has been the handpicked nominee since November 2016. Lean D.

New Jersey: The Menendez scandal has largely faded away. I'm moving this one to the safe column, not matter who the Dems nominate. Safe D.

New Mexico: Also moving this one from likely to safe. Safe D.

North Dakota: This will be a tough battle for Heitkamp, but she's a good campaigner and well liked. I won't count her out. Tossup.

Ohio: Things are looking better for Brown. Mandel has had some missteps already and Ohio has turned on Trump quite quickly. Lean D.

Pennsylvania: No good GOP candidates, Casey is popular, good Dem year. Likely D.

Tennessee: Phil Bredesen should be a decent nominee for the Dems, but it's still Deep Red territory, and Blackburn isn't a bad candidate. Likely R.

Texas: I really don't see it but after Alabama, anything is possible for the Dems. Likely R.

West Virginia: Manchin should be able to get it done, but Trump is still very popular here. The primary could be tough for Manchin though. Tossup.

Wisconsin: Shouldn't be too hard for Baldwin at this point, even if she isn't that popular. Likely D.

[Badger]

Franken's seat is Lean D. If McCain leaves, Lean D. Cotton: Lean R. Cochran: Lean R.

A pretty good map, but I have to quibble about your analysis of the special elections. I think McCain seat will be a toss-up, and Democrats will be lucky to keep Arkansas even likely are at first without a really good candidate and / or a bad Republican candidate despite the Republicans having a deep deep bench there. Franken's seat will be no weaker for Democrats than likely D, probably quickly shifting to safe d

I have to say Baldwin is still barely likely d as you have it at this point, but what is your opinion as to how close it is to putting it as safe d?

Edit. How are you bullish enough on heitkamp to list her as likely d? Admittedly her stock is only gone up over the last several months, but this is still North Dakota we are talking about. Just curious

[Xing]

(MN Special: Likely D)

IN, MO: Lean R -> Toss-Up: Donnelly and McCaskill are still in a lot of trouble, but if 2018 is as good for Democrats as it's looking like it could be, they have a decent chance of surviving.

WV: Toss-Up -> Lean D: Once Manchin retires, this will probably be an easy Republican pick-up, but I believe he's in a better position than any of the Romney state Democrats.

MS, TN ,TX: Safe R -> Likely R: Out of an abundance of caution. I don't see these seats flipping even in a Democratic wave, but I could be wrong and maybe the stars will align again for the Democrats in one of these states.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Franken's seat is Lean D. If McCain leaves, Lean D. Cotton: Lean R. Cochran: Lean R.

A pretty good map, but I have to quibble about your analysis of the special elections. I think McCain seat will be a toss-up, and Democrats will be lucky to keep Arkansas even likely are at first without a really good candidate and / or a bad Republican candidate despite the Republicans having a deep deep bench there. Franken's seat will be no weaker for Democrats than likely D, probably quickly shifting to safe d

I have to say Baldwin is still barely likely d as you have it at this point, but what is your opinion as to how close it is to putting it as safe d?

Edit. How are you bullish enough on heitkamp to list her as likely d? Admittedly her stock is only gone up over the last several months, but this is still North Dakota we are talking about. Just curious

Thanks. A few things. I think putting Arkansas at Likely R is fair. With a little bit more thought I might do that.

Secondly, Wisconsin was obviously won by Trump. Although there is a situation where someone can win a state and can be safe for the other party, I do not see Baldwin as there yet. Nicholson is interesting, and although Vukmir is sorta bland, it's theoretically possible that Baldwin loses.

Lastly and although it's entirely anecdotal, Heitkamp is really popular in ND. I know a lot of people from there and everybody loves Heitkamp, Democrats and Republicans alike (mostly republicans). I could definitely see the race as Lean D (right now it's probably somewhere between the two), but for now I think Heitkamp is a strong favorite. From what I've seen her approvals are also very good.

[mcmikk]

Secondly, Wisconsin was obviously won by Trump. Although there is a situation where someone can win a state and can be safe for the other party, I do not see Baldwin as there yet. Nicholson is interesting, and although Vukmir is sorta bland, it's theoretically possible that Baldwin loses.

Not really, no. Obama won Indiana by the skin of his teeth in 2008 and we all know what happened there in 2010, let alone in Wisconsin where he won by 15.

Nicholson is a Trump man in a state where the Republican base is largely suburbs and Trump greatly under-performed Ron Johnson in said suburbs in 2016. Vukmir would stand a better chance in the general, and I imagine she would be more palatable to suburban GOP primary voters(after all they chose Cruz over Trump in 2016).

That said, I don't think either of them will cause Baldwin to lose much sleep. Democratic enthusiasm is high, Republican enthusiasm isn't, and her running a progressive economic populist campaign will aid her in rural areas, particularly the Obama-Trump counties in Western Wisconsin, an area that will be crucial to her victory. Chances are she'll waste whatever Republican steps up to bat, and the real question will be whether she can pull the gubernatorial challenger over the finish line.

[Blackacre]

I think this will be my final ratings change before we get any substantial polls. Everything so far (with the exception of AL-Special) has been based on the national environment, incumbency advantage, and my own priors on the state and the candidates. So basically pretty good gut feelings and educated guesses.

With that in mind, I do have a couple changes to make. Florida moves from Tilt D to Leans D on account of Rick Scott waffling on running. If Scott jumps in, it reverts back to Tilt D. If he bows out, the race starts out at Likely D. Tennessee and Texas switch places. TN becomes Leans R because of the good Democratic recruit, Texas goes back to Likely R because of the state's fundamentals, the expense of the TX media market, and the lack of Democratic infrastructure. However, consider it a weak Likely, almost Lean.

Utah moves from Safe to Very Likely, because a perfect storm exists in the form of either Hatch or a Bannon-backed candidate winning the GOP nomination. It's almost purely academic, but Safe is reserved for the most titanium safe of races, like WY and NE. The same switch is being made on the Democratic side in New Mexico. Voting for the DREAM-less CR wouldn't move a D out of Safe in any other state, but I think Heinrich weakened himself just a little bit.

Indiana moves to Tilts D. Donnelly has a strong national environment and weak challengers, so while Indiana is still hostile territory, I do believe he is favored. Finally, Missouri is moving to Tossup. Every factor in this race is cancelling out everything else. The national environment is strong enough to permeate red states, but this is Missouri. Josh Hawley is a mediocre candidate, but so is Claire McCaskill. (she's probably weaker, but she does have incumbency advantage) MO swung hard for Trump last year, but it's also an elastic, ticket splitting state.

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, ME, VT, MD, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
VA, MN, MN-Special, NJ, DE, CT, NM

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WI, OH, ND, WV

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, MT, PA, AZ, FL

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS, UT

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
NE, WY

And here's a visual aid!
(MN-Special will be represented by DC in the visual aid)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seat

(btw, if we get a special election in MS, I'll have the Maine districts represent the two special elections)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two Senate races in Mississippi in 2018 will likely be similar to when the same event happened in 2008. The regular election will involve the incumbent dominating over token opposition, while Democrats will run a supposedly good candidate for the special but still lose comfortably. I will put the Special at Likely R out of an abundance of caution, but I really don't see how a Dem wins.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), TN, MO (R+1)
Likely R (2): AR*, MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is there a particular reason that Ohio is leans Republican other than a 6-month old poll from a pro-Trump group where Brown outran the rosy Trump approval spread?

It's gigantic republican swing in 2016. I would be willing to reconsider that rating if more polling came out, but for now all we have to go by is the 2016 swing and the couple of early polls that show Brown behind.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Is there a particular reason that Ohio is leans Republican other than a 6-month old poll from a pro-Trump group where Brown outran the rosy Trump approval spread?

Yeah, Brown is as good a candidate as any, and I really can't see him losing in a D wave year - or even in a year that's only moderately good for Democrats.

[PragmaticPopulist]

MN-Special is Leans D.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MN-Special is Leans D.

This. Although I would put MN-Special as Likely D. There is no way Smith would lose while Klobuchar would curb-stomp her republican opponent.

[InheritTheWind]

Safe D/I: CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, ME, MN, NM, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA
Likely D: MI, MN-Special, PA
Lean D: MT, ND, OH, NV, WI, WV
Toss-Up: AZ, FL, IN, MO
Lean R: TX
Likely R: MS-Special, TN
Safe R: NE, MS, WY, UT

[OneJ]

Like Spenstar's map, Iowa will represent Minnesota's special.

Safe R:
NE, UT, WY

Likely R:
MS, TN, TX

Tossup:
MO

Tilt D:
AZ, IN

Lean D:
FL, MT, NV, ND, OH, WV

Likely D:
ME, MN-Special, PA, VA, WI

Safe D:
CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, WA

[Blackacre]

Oops. I got one more ratings change in me.

Utah does from Very Likely R to Safe R because of Hatch's retirement. A brutal primary fight between Hatch and a Trumpist was the only thing keeping this race away from Safe; Romney has this one locked down.

Edit: re-organizing the non-safe, non-tossup races. On the D side, the order will go from most likely to go D to least likely to go D. (for instance, MN is stronger for Ds than NJ) For the GOP, it will be the opposite, though no non-safe GOP category has more than 1 race. This doesn't apply to Safe and Tossup races.

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, ME, VT, MD, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MN, NM, VA, MN-Special, DE, CT, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WV, ND, WI, OH

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, PA, FL, MT, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
NE, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(MN-Special will be represented by DC in the visual aid)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seat

(btw, if we get a special election in MS, I'll have the Maine districts represent the two special elections)

[Blackacre]

May as well have some fun here and use my rankings map to create a few scenarios. 30% will be a pickup while 60% will be a hold. Also, unlike my rankings map, this map will assume a MS-Special, and use ME-1 to represent MN-Special and ME-2 to represent MS-Special. No other 2018 Special elections will be assumed.

The Atlas Red Tsunami

Democrats: 55 seats (+6)
Republicans: 45 seats (-6)

Do I think this will happen with any likelihood? Absolutely not. But it is the absolute best result that Democrats could possibly get, and has a nonzero chance of occurring. The most R seat to flip here is MS-regular, but I flip it bc I don't think MS will split tickets in its 2 senate races.

The Atlas Red Tidal Wave

Democrats: 53 seats (+4)
Republicans: 47 seats (-4)

This is, I think, a more realistic high water mark for a blue wave. Texas and MS-Special are  the closest races, but a shifting electorate and Cruz's awfulness bring him down while Wicker carries the other Republican to victory.

The Democrats' Path of Least Resistance

Democrats: 51 (+2)
Republicans: 49 (+2)

This is the most easy path for the Ds to get a majority in the Senate. Future ratings changes might swap TN and MO, but I'm discounting TN polling due to it being so early in the year. Still, MO and TN are the closest calls.

The Republicans' Path of Least Resistance

Republicans: 50 and VP (-1)
Democrats: 50 (+1)

See above. Our first tied senate since 2001.

Trump's High Water Mark

Republicans: 52 Seats (+1)
Democrats: 48 Seats (-1)

This is the best the GOP can probably do with Trump in office, and it assumes he rebounds, which is not that likely. Potentially swap out IN for MT.

Pence Saves The Day: A BTM-Style 2018

Republicans: 55 Seats (+4)
Democrats: 45 Seats (-4)

This is probably the best GOP scenario that can also be paired with a D house takeover, albeit a narrow one. Trump is removed, Pence says "our long national nightmare is over," and people calm down. That hurts Ds. FL because Scott jumps back into the race, and PA because of the unpopularity of Casey and Wolf. NV is the strongest D of the Leans, so it stays a D pickup. BTM had this kind of 2018, with a 4 seat GOP pickup but D strength in gubernatorial and state legislatures. The House would be a tossup in this scenario.

Rally Around the Flag: 2002 Redux

Republicans: 59 seats (+8)
Democrats: 41 seats (-8)

This is highly unlikely in this universe, so it could also be called a "soft Clinton Midterm Scenario." This would require Pence, and Pence approvals above 60, which would probably require a 9/11 scenario or something similar. MI, as the strongest Likely state for the Ds, stands alone as a D hold.

edit: Dems hold Ohio due to Mandel's exit.

The Atlas Blue Tsunami: A Rough Clinton Midterm

Republicans: 67 seats (+15)
Democrats: 33 seats (-15)

Yes, this is a 2/3s GOP Senate Supermajority, under a President Clinton with approvals in the High 30s. Among the vast quantity of possible Senate pickups, I figure that one or two will fall through the cracks, which is why MN-normal is only a Very Likely but stays D. CT falls due to Gov coattails, NJ because of Menendez, DE because of Carper, and VA because of depressed D turnout. The math is a bit off but thats because theres no AL-Special under this scenario; this could only be possible under a Clinton Midterm, which means no AG sessions.

[King Lear]

I admit my last post on 2018 Senate ratings was a bit Trollish, because I eliminated all tossups and claimed Nelson and Browns seats where already “Lean Republican”. So I have decided to post my realistic 2018 Senate ratings with the Tossup rating reintroduced:
Safe Republican: TX, MS, TN, WY, NE, and UT
Likely Republican: MO, IN, and ND
Lean Republican: AZ, WV, and MT
Tossup: FL, NV, and OH
Lean Democratic: PA, MI, and WI
Likely Democratic: MN-regular, MN-special, ME, VA, and NM
Safe Democratic: CA, NY, MA, CT, RI, VT, DE, NJ, MD, WA, and HI
This basically shows how bad a map it is for Democrats in that I’m projecting Republicans to gain anywhere from 4-7 seats. For Democrats to flip the senate their going to have to sweep every seat I don’t consider Safe Republican, including the 5 double-digit Trump seats they hold that I consider either Leaning or Likely Republican (WV, ND, MT, IN, and MO), plus holding their two tossup seats (FL and OH), and flipping the Republican seat in Nevada which I consider a Tossup along with the Republican seat in Arizona I consider Lean Republican. For this to happen Democrats are going to need a massive wave that flips the house by a large margin, for I can imagine a scenario where Democrats narrowly flip the house but still lose seats in the senate due to the horrible map.

[Cactus Jack]

In no universe are MO, IN, and ND all Likely R, especially not North Dakota. You do realize that Heitkamp's top opponents are respectively a notorious prick and a rich Some Dude State Senator with the charisma of a cardboard box, right?