2018 Senate Rankings

[Chief Justice Keef]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: ME, MI, NM, VA, WV
Lean D: FL, MT, OH, PA, WI
Tossup: IN, MO, NV
Lean R: AZ
Likely R: TX, UT
Safe R: MS, NE, TN, WY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[JustinTimeCuber]

no one is factoring in the fact that Trump will be our worst President since GWB

[smoltchanov]

no one is factoring in the fact that Trump will be our worst President since GWB

I am not sure of that (though i didn't support him this year)...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving ND/WV back to Toss-Up, as Trump has decided that those senators won't be part of the cabinet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe OH, PA, MT, FL, MA and ME

potentionally competetive AZ, IN, MO, NV, ND, NEB, TX

All the  other R seats are solid.

[Xing]

Very early ratings:

Titanium D (1): MO
Safe D (13): CA, WA, HI, NM, VA, MD, DE, NJ, CT, RI, MA, NY, VT
Likely D (1): MN
Lean D (2): MI, ME
Tossup (8 ): NV, MT, ND, WI, OH, PA, WV, FL
Lean R (1): AZ
Likely R (3): UT, TX, IN
Safe R (4): MS, TN, NE, WY

Edit: Oh wait, I already posted my ratings in this thread.

Nice map , but why isn't Indiana Titanium D?

[jamestroll]

Tnvol.. come on man. You are way over reacting.. strawmanning.. and all tensed up. Just cool off. No one is saying Claire is safe. Even I have said that she would lose if the election was held today.

[Cubby]

Why do you all keep saying Maine is "Safe D"? King is an Independent. Yes he caucuses with the Dems but he's not in their party.

[Heisenberg]

Why do you all keep saying Maine is "Safe D"? King is an Independent. Yes he caucuses with the Dems but he's not in their party.

Simplicity.

[Xing]

>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe
>90% = Titanium

[Blackacre]

>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe
>90% = Titanium

What's with Wisconsin

[Heisenberg]

>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe
>90% = Titanium

What's with Wisconsin

It's this stupid meme going around.

[SATW]

My Early-Likely BS-Thoughts on 2018:

[GlobeSoc]

My Early-Likely BS-Thoughts on 2018:

This except moving ND and AZ to tossup and TX to Likely R

[pbrower2a]

Much of the result depends upon how Americans see Donald Trump. If competent he could sink Debbie Stabenow. If offensive, he could rescue some Democrats (Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp) in strong-R states. So far Donald Trump is extremely unpopular.

[jamestroll]

My Early-Likely BS-Thoughts on 2018:

Thank you! those are exactly my ratings right now. I prayed to god and he helped me come up with those ratings!

[MAINEiac4434]

Alabama Special: Safe R

Arizona: Likely R it's been a goal for Democrats for what seeems like forever but, I just don't see it happening unless there's a major registration jump by Latinos and a drop in the white vote.

California: Safe D even if Feinstein retires. The state is simply hardcore Democratic right now and all this handwringing about the top-two primary system is predicated on the Democrats inexplicably not running a strong candidate and the GOP running two.

Connecticut: Safe D. Chris Murphy is a rising star.

Delaware: Safe D.

Florida: Likely D. But it's Florida so anything can happen.

Hawaii: Safe D

Indiana: Likely R. Indiana's rightward bent will make it hard for Donnelly, but if Drumpf can't 'bring the jobs back' and with the Carrier deal in the rear-view mirror, maybe Donnelly will hold on. I won't hold my breath.

Maine: Safe D. Angus King was the last governor to get more than 50% of the vote in a gubernatorial election. He is extremely popular while LePage, in a word, isn't. It would be an extremely good night for the Republicans if they could take Maine from Angus. The only Dem challenger circling right now is a lady who came in third (of 3) in her state senate primary campaign in 2016 despite raising - and spending - a hell of a lot more money than her two opponents.

Maryland: Safe D even if Cardin retires.

Massachusetts: Safe D.

Michigan: Likely D because it's Michigan and it's no longer the safe Democratic state we thought it was.

Minnesota: Safe D.

Mississippi: Safe R. Only the biggest Democratic landslide could knock this state.

Missouri: Lean R Claire McCaskill likely won't have the benefit of having an abhorrent challenger. Even as she has lucked into Democratic wave elections in 2006 and 2012, Missouri's rightward trend will probably knock her down.

Montana: Toss-up Jon Tester is apparently popular in this safe-R seat. And with Zinke heading towards the cabinet, no one especially terrifying seems poised to take Tester on.

Nebraska: Safe R.

New Jersey: Likely D it's Bob Menendez, so all the inherent disadvantages of Bob Menendez come into play. Still, the R bench isn't exactly sterling.

New Mexico: Likely D A decent, moderate-ish senator from a lean-D seat. He should be fine.

New York: Safe D. Gillibrand is hugely popular and few R candidates to pick from.

Nevada: Toss-up. Nevada seems to be trending increasingly Democratic. A resurgent Latino vote, still angry about Drumpf, could spell the end to Dean.

North Dakota: Toss-up maybe with a slight tilt to the Republicans.

Ohio: Lean D. Ohio has definitely shifted right in recent years, but Sherrod Brown still has ins with the working class voters Hillary lost.

Pennsylvania: Lean D. Casey isn't very socially liberal - as a matter of fact, he's pro-life - so perhaps that will play well among working class voters who went to Drumpf in 2016.

Rhode Island: Safe D.

Tennessee: Safe R.

Texas: Safe R.

Utah: Safe R.

Vermont: Safe D. The only way the Dems don't retain this seat is if someone challenges Bernie in the Dem primary (unlikely), they win the primary (impossible) and Bernie continues his campaign as an independent, thereby splitting the left vote and allowing an R to squeeze through.

Virginia: Likely D. Virginia is almost in the safe-Dem category now. It has trended Democratic for more than a decade.

Washington: Safe D.

West Virginia: Safe D. It's Joe Manchin. Update 1/29/17: With Jenkins' entry into the race, I've shifted it to a Lean R.

Wisconsin: Lean D. I have no idea what Wisconsin's deal is.

Wyoming: Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SAFE: MO, MT, IN, WVA, OH

competetive NEB, MS, AZ, NV and TX; ND


Yes, Congress is in play and Dems can net 18-25 seats in the House and grab FL, IL, WI, MI, NV, NM, Iowa, NH, ME Govs in a Trump midterm

Go Dems in 2018

[Maxwell]

Alabama - Safe R. There's really no reason for Republicans to lose in Alabama. The only I could imagine is if Democrats recruit someone good (not likely) and Governor Bentley goes far enough to actually appoint Luther Strange to the seat rather than just letting him run (huge lapse in ethical judgement, no surprise in Alabama politics but may be the last straw for voters already tired of Cheatin' Robert Bentley).

Arizona - Pure Toss-Up. Toss-Up Tilt D if Flake loses the primary to DeWit, who is a Trumpite crank who would do poorly in a state that already doesn't like Trump very much, Lean D if Flake loses the primary to Ward, who is an even crankier crank than DeWit. I'd even only give Flake a Toss-Up Tilt R, as he's spent all of his energy alienating every single voter group in the state of Arizona by taking principled stands on unpopular issues. One of few Republican Senators I don't actively dislike, but Democrats would be fool hardy not to take him on. Sinema would be a strong candidate if we actually ran her, but there many a dark horse we don't even know about yet that could also do a good job here at mobilizing latinos.

California - Safe D. Really hoping Feinstein retires so that Flawless Beautiful Garcetti gets to be a Senator.

Connecticut - Safe D. Less enthusiastic about Low Energy Chris than some others, but he seems like an ideal fit for Connecticut politics.

Delaware - Safe D. Really hoping Tom Carper gets a primary, as his brand of Pro-Business Dinosaur politics isn't really necessary in a state that has voted Democrat for so many elections in a row. Republicans have a bench of one and he is probably going to run for Governor at some point, not Senator.

Florida - Lean D. Bill Nelson is easily the Democrats best shot at holding on to this seat thanks to his appeal to otherwise Trump-leaning retirees. Nelson is probably facing Rick Scott, who has a lot of baggage and is generally a pretty odious guy but also has a lot lot lot of money to blow and is very strong on consistency of message. Ultimately, I think Scott is too toxic to win outright, but I imagine he will keep it within single digits because of his well-oiled operation. If things get really bad for Democrats, I'd watch this race with terror.

Hawaii - Safe D. Hirono needs to smash Gabbard should she ever try any funny business.

Indiana - Toss-Up, Tilt R. Donnelly is probably the incumbent on the shakiest ground, as he won a much less impressive victory against a Todd Akin character in 2012. Donnelly is also in a state that does not mind throwing incumbents overboard. I'd say if he faces someone like Susan Brooks, someone who could distance themselves from The Donald if he goes unpopular, Donnelly would be a very distinct underdog, but if he gets lucky and the GOP goes to someone like McIntosh or that guy Todd Young smashed in the primary in 2016, then Donnelly may be in luck yet again. Donnelly also ain't a bad campaigner, and I doubt he'll make the same mistakes that Bayh 2016 (yuck!)) made.

Maine - Likely I. King has a lot of good will in this state, and Maine politics tends to get kind of freaky. If Democrats don't try to sh**t the bed by running a competent candidate, then I would be surprised if King managed a loss. I suspect Republicans will nominate Paul LePage, a fiery right-populist who won two terms despite saying a lot of pretty insane things, and LePage probably will score over 40%. But note in both of his runs he never scored above 50% - and I think as long as King doesn't get a substantial challenger on his left, King prevails by high single digits to double digits.

Maryland - Safe D, regardless of whether or not Ben Cardin, who has been in politics since 1967, retires.

Massachusetts - Safe D, anyone who says otherwise has no idea what they're talking about.

Michigan - Likely D, for all the talk of this seat being vulnerable, it seems to ignore the fact that Obama won Indiana in 2008, which was as huge of a shock as Trump winning Michigan. It also forgets Trump had a very specific appeal in Michigan, and most Republicans in Michigan have tended to run on the opposite appeal. Trump ran on a protectionist campaign, while Rick Snyder, the other major electoral success story in Michigan, ran on being a polite nerd with "detailed solutions" or some other technocratic nonsense. Those run in stark opposition to one another and most Michigan Republicans are somewhere in the messy middle of that, which I don't think will work. I also think the Michigan Republican bench is stacked with a lot of people but not a lot of talent - I have no idea who would even run who could make it competitive! Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley is too closely connected to the now unpopular Rick Snyder administration, Attorney General Bill Schuette is probably running for Governor, Candice Miller just got a new job, and the rest are a bunch of kind of vapid Republican wave riders like Mike Bishop, guy with a long obnoxious last name, or they could go even worse and pick Justin Amash. As long as a star doesn't rise, Stabenow is probably fine.

Minnesota - Safe D. Amy Klobuchar is a solid, don't rock the boat type of incumbent, like the Democrat version of Rob Portman. Republicans also have nobody they are looking toward to run for this, as all of their energies are focused on the open Governorship in 2018.

Mississippi - Safe R. Wicker is a don't rock the boat type of incumbent, rather anonymous, and in a state where the State Democratic Party is in utter shambles. Democrats would be better focusing on rebuilding their State Senate and House stature.

Missouri - Toss-Up, Tilt R. McCaskill is one tough bird, which has given her often unfavorable or very marginal approval ratings. She won in 2012 by being very strategic and making Republicans nominate a total clown in Todd Akin, allowing her to win by 16 points even as Barack Obama lost the state by 10. McCaskill, I doubt, will have that same luck in 2018. Republicans this early on are pinning their hopes on Ann Wagner, a consummate Republican insider from Suburban Saint Louis. I think McCaskill is the under-dog but I would not under-estimate her one bit.

Montana - Toss-Up, Tilt D. Tester is a pretty good incumbent, knocked off an incumbent in a tough state for Democrats and then held on against a pretty storied challenger. Tester also got a slight break when Trump decided to put his most notable challenger, Ryan Zinke, in the Department of Interior. That said, it's still Montana, a state that voted for Trump by 20 points, so any opponent is not to be under-estimated. I think Tim Fox is looking more towards the Governorship but I could be wrong, but either way he would be a formidable challenger as would Gianforte, who did as good as a second tier challenger probably could against popular Governor Steve Bullock. Still, Tester isn't in as dire a situation as McCaskill is because I think he's not quite as connected to D.C. insiders because I view his participation in local Montana politics as more real.

[Maxwell]

Nebraska - Likely R. Deb Fischer is not a great incumbent (she had the most embarassing flipping and flopping on Donald Trump of just about any incumbent), but I'd be surprised if she had a serious opponent. Democrats might be better off finding some business guy to run as an independent and then on the DL supporting his bid. This didn't work in Kansas but that race ended up being closer than it had any right to be.

Nevada - Toss-Up, Tilt R. People here are under-rating Dean Heller's chances. Heller is in a tough state, the toughest state for a GOP incumbent, but Heller has a couple of advantages - he knows his states issues (he gave a good performance in the form of his blistering back and forth with Goldman Sachs Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin), he doesn't rock the boat, and he's connected to that Sheldon Adelson money. He also faces a Democrat bench that is in the process of rebuilding. Still, any challenger that Heller gets has to be taken seriously considering the electoral and demographic environment in Nevada.

New Jersey - Safe D. Controversial rating, but hear me out - The Republican bench is god damn decimated in New Jersey. Menendez, for all of his scandalous behavior, runs in a state where there's no opposition to his candidacy and he runs very good campaigns, maybe partially because New Jersey Republicans tend to not be able to run Senate campaigns. I hope someone knocks out Menendez in the primary, but knowing New Jersey politics I would not hold my breath.

New Mexico - Safe D.

New York - Safe D.

North Dakota - Lean R. I have no idea how this race is going to go - though I tend to think Republicans ultimately will pick it up. This state shifted so hard to the Republicans in 2016 thanks to immigration of oil men to the state, but any move Heitkamp makes to appease them alienates the Democratic base in the state of Native Americans and enviormentalists. Heitkamp is in the toughest spot of any non-Joe Manchin incumbent. Republicans will probably run Kevin Cramer, who is not that formidable in comparison to other options but would have the full support of the GOP establishment. I could see Heitkamp winning by 5 or losing by 20, which probably averages to her losing by 5 or 6.

Ohio - Pure Toss-Up. Senator Sherrod Brown is easily the most left-wing Senator in a Trump state, so he has a target on his back. He was already majorly out-spent in 2012 and I suspect that will be the case again, as corporate America has their favorite candidate in Josh Mandel, a young, empty man whose only reason for existence is blind ambition. Mandel will say the lines as needed to be said, lie whatever way he needs to, and blow through cash like none other. Mandel's weaknesses as a candidate are the reason I have this as a toss-up instead of a Republican win - Mandel comes across as dishonest and ambitious as he actually is, while Brown comes off as a human who cares about your issues. I think this will be the closest race of 2018.

Pennsylvania - Lean D. Bob Casey ran the laziest campaign of 2012, but I doubt the same will happen when he faces a serious opponent in 2018. From what it sounds like, Republicans are coalescing around Pat Meehan, a Republican from a Clinton leaning suburb, and will likely attract RINOS for Clinton to his campaign. Casey, however, won't be caught off guard like Clinton in rural Pennsylvania - which is why I think Casey will be formidable in 2018.

Rhode Island - Safe D.

Tennessee - Safe R - it's a matter of whether Corker wants to play switcheroo with Haslam or not.

Texas - Likely R. Cruz is unpopular and likely will face a primary challenge, but I have no idea if it will be significant or not. Democrats might run Joaquin Castro or someone else who could attract hispanic support, but probably won't run someone who could break and make the difference with the kind of Texans that voted for Clinton in cities and suburbs and perhaps do even better with them. Blue Texas is a long ways away, sadly.

Utah - Likely R. New polling seems to show Hatch is in trouble from his Republican flank. There's a good chance he finally calls it quits. If that's the case, Huntsman might run which would leave an opening for Democrats as I doubt uber-conservative McMullin would give up the oppurtunity to run against a RINO Trump oppurtunist like Huntsman, and I doubt some pro-Trump conservative would let those two have the field to themselves. If things get that messed up, if Democrats run even a semi-decent candidate who could cross 30% or so, they may be able to win a seat here.

Vermont - Safe Bernie Sanders.

Virginia - Likely D. Kaine should have no problem here, even as Virginia is only a Lean D state. Still, I doubt Republicans will let him completely slide - It's likely that Comstock may make the jump considering her seat is now more liberal than the state as a whole. Comstock would be a tough challenger but she has a history of being a Republican hatchetwoman, something that probably wouldn't appeal to Virginia as it is today. And if it isn't Comstock, I doubt the GOP has anyone that could reasonably challenge this seat - Certainly not Cuccinelli, Probably not Rob Wittman, and certainly not Laura Ingraham, Carly Fiorina, or (rofl) Jim Gilmore.

Washington - Safe D.

West Virginia - Lean R. Now we know who the Republican nominee is, things are really tough for Manchin. Jenkins is, on paper, the perfect candidate to face Joe Manchin - he already took down a West Viriginia institution by double digits, unlike clowns #1 and #2 he's born in West Virginia, and he's an ex-Democrat which takes away the stigma of "you've always been a Republican, you don't understand our situation" as I think is a possible problem for David McKinely whose always been a Republican hack. Manchin is no slouch, but Manchin is probably going to have to do some pretty embarassing kissing up to the Republican administration in the next few years.

Wisconsin - Lean D. Baldwin is the kind of progressive that can win here, and the Republican bench, like in Michigan, won't be able to capitalize on the gains Trump made with rural working class people. Duffy is probably their best candidate and I feel like Duffy is a ticking time bomb - if he's exposed to the big stage he'll burst. The rest are people like gold nutter Eric Hovde, Senate Majority Leader and resident in Scott Walker's anus Scott Fitzgerald, and LG Rebecca Kleefisch, people who the GOP really doesn't want to be the nominee here. I think concerns about Baldwin holding on are over-rated.

Wyoming - Safe R who cares.

[Figueira]

Calling swing state Senators other than Collins "safe" multiple years out is silly.

[DPKdebator]

MA is not titanium D. Just because Warren won by a small margin in 2012 doesn't mean it's a fluke; she is not immune to losing re-election.

[Figueira]

Calling swing state Senators other than Collins "safe" multiple years out is silly.

I agree. There's really no other swing-state senators up in 2022 that I didn't list. I was just responding to TN Volunteer's theory that every state will vote like they did in 2016.

Florida is no longer a swing state? (Not to mention Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio, but they're debatable.)

[Figueira]

Calling swing state Senators other than Collins "safe" multiple years out is silly.

I agree. There's really no other swing-state senators up in 2022 that I didn't list. I was just responding to TN Volunteer's theory that every state will vote like they did in 2016.

Florida is no longer a swing state? (Not to mention Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio, but they're debatable.)

Forgot about those, lol. I kept on thinking that playing field was as limited as 2020's. But yeah, FL and AZ should probably be on everyone's radar going forward. Not sure about Ohio, but Iowa is probably off, IMO

We'll have a clearer picture of this after the 2020 election.