2018 Senate Rankings

[IceSpear]

>30%: Lean
>50%: Likely
>90%: Safe
Green: Toss Up

GOP starts with 3 pickups, WV is safe R and IN/MO are lean R. Dems only start with 1 pickup, NV as lean D. AZ is the only other plausible Dem pickup, so their best case scenario is a net gain of 1 seat. Republicans are almost certainly going to net seats, the only question is how many.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WV is safe R

Certified Troll

[Dr. Arch]

WV is safe R

Certified Troll

IceSpear is reverse TNVol for WV instead of NH.

[IceSpear]

WV is safe R

Certified Troll

lol, how is it trolling? WV was the most heavily Republican state in the entire country. Even Republican in drag (and now literal Republican!) Jim Justice who fits the state like a glove couldn't even crack 50% due to being weighed down by having the letter of the anti-white hate group next to his name. Manchin is DOA. That's why I support Paula Jean Swearengin in the primary. If she wins the primary, everyone will accept the race is a lost cause rather than throwing money down the sinkhole trying to save Manchin like they wasted on Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor. Manchin must be triaged for the sake of our other incumbents and precious few targets.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WV is safe R

Certified Troll

lol, how is it trolling? WV was the most heavily Republican state in the entire country. Even Republican in drag (and now literal Republican!) Jim Justice who fits the state like a glove couldn't even crack 50% due to being weighed down by having the letter of the anti-white hate group next to his name. Manchin is DOA. That's why I support Paula Jean Swearengin in the primary. If she wins the primary, everyone will accept the race is a lost cause rather than throwing money down the sinkhole trying to save Manchin like they wasted on Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor. Manchin must be triaged for the sake of our other incumbents and precious few targets.

Justice didn't crack 50% because parts of the liberal base bolted him for the green party ticket (Heck, the Atlas Average Endorsement Map endorsed the Green Nominee). The fact that he won even with that happening shows that Dems are still viable in West Virginia. And no one had any way of knowing he would eventually switch parties at the time.

Also, Manchin is very popular. I understand that Jenkins is a top republican recruit, but when both candidates are popular, voters tend to stick with the incumbent. It will be close, don't get me wrong, but at this point I expect Manchin to eke it out, 50-48 or so.

Also, if the Dems need to triage someone, it's McCaskill, not Manchin.

[McGovernForPrez]

WV is safe R

Certified Troll

lol, how is it trolling? WV was the most heavily Republican state in the entire country. Even Republican in drag (and now literal Republican!) Jim Justice who fits the state like a glove couldn't even crack 50% due to being weighed down by having the letter of the anti-white hate group next to his name. Manchin is DOA. That's why I support Paula Jean Swearengin in the primary. If she wins the primary, everyone will accept the race is a lost cause rather than throwing money down the sinkhole trying to save Manchin like they wasted on Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor. Manchin must be triaged for the sake of our other incumbents and precious few targets.

Please just stop. This is an incredibly stupid opinion. The state level of the Democratic party is doing very strong there despite Trump's popularity. Giving up a popular incumbent Senator like Manchin would be stupid.

[PAK Man]

Latest ratings:

Arizona - Tossup
California - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Delaware - Safe D
Florida - Leans D
Hawaii - Safe D
Indiana - Tossup
Maine - Likely I
Maryland - Safe D
Massachusetts - Safe D
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Mississippi - Safe R
Missouri - Leans D
Montana - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Jersey - Likely D
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
North Dakota - Tossup
Ohio - Leans D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Safe D
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe I
Virginia - Likely D
Washington - Safe D
West Virginia - Likely D
Wisconsin - Leans D
Wyoming - Safe R

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Latest ratings:

Arizona - Tossup
California - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Delaware - Safe D
Florida - Leans D
Hawaii - Safe D
Indiana - Tossup
Maine - Likely I
Maryland - Safe D
Massachusetts - Safe D
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Mississippi - Safe R
Missouri - Leans D
Montana - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Jersey - Likely D
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
North Dakota - Tossup
Ohio - Leans D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Safe D
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe I
Virginia - Likely D
Washington - Safe D
West Virginia - Likely D
Wisconsin - Leans D
Wyoming - Safe R

Lol

Republicans have no chance whatsoever of unseating Tammy Baldwin.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Latest ratings:

Arizona - Tossup
California - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Delaware - Safe D
Florida - Leans D
Hawaii - Safe D
Indiana - Tossup
Maine - Likely I
Maryland - Safe D
Massachusetts - Safe D
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Mississippi - Safe R
Missouri - Leans D
Montana - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Jersey - Likely D
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
North Dakota - Tossup
Ohio - Leans D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Safe D
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe I
Virginia - Likely D
Washington - Safe D
West Virginia - Likely D
Wisconsin - Leans D
Wyoming - Safe R

Lol

Republicans have no chance whatsoever of unseating Tammy Baldwin.

Yep. Just look at Senator Feingold, who defeated Ron Johnson in a landslide. Or wait...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Latest ratings:

Arizona - Tossup
California - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Delaware - Safe D
Florida - Leans D
Hawaii - Safe D
Indiana - Tossup
Maine - Likely I
Maryland - Safe D
Massachusetts - Safe D
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Mississippi - Safe R
Missouri - Leans D
Montana - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Jersey - Likely D
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
North Dakota - Tossup
Ohio - Leans D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Safe D
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe I
Virginia - Likely D
Washington - Safe D
West Virginia - Likely D
Wisconsin - Leans D
Wyoming - Safe R

Lol

Republicans have no chance whatsoever of unseating Tammy Baldwin.

Yep. Just look at Senator Feingold, who defeated Ron Johnson in a landslide. Or wait...

Very different environments.  I'd call it Likely D.

[IceSpear]

WV is safe R

Certified Troll

lol, how is it trolling? WV was the most heavily Republican state in the entire country. Even Republican in drag (and now literal Republican!) Jim Justice who fits the state like a glove couldn't even crack 50% due to being weighed down by having the letter of the anti-white hate group next to his name. Manchin is DOA. That's why I support Paula Jean Swearengin in the primary. If she wins the primary, everyone will accept the race is a lost cause rather than throwing money down the sinkhole trying to save Manchin like they wasted on Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor. Manchin must be triaged for the sake of our other incumbents and precious few targets.

Please just stop. This is an incredibly stupid opinion. The state level of the Democratic party is doing very strong there despite Trump's popularity. Giving up a popular incumbent Senator like Manchin would be stupid.

They're strong? The legislature is now overwhelmingly Republican, the fake Dem governor just switched parties, all 3 House seats are held by Republicans...

We'll see who is right in a year. Manchin is going to get Blanched. In fact, he might even get Thompsoned. Or we might even need to coin a new term: Manchined.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not counting the upcoming Alabama Special...here is what I see.

Arizona: Lean D: Even if Flake wins the primary, pro Ward voters simply will not vote for him, and Simena's the strongest possible recruit (except for maybe Janet Napolitano, but she now lives in California)

California: Safe D: This race almost certainly will be D v D, especially now that De Leon is in... If Steyer or Sanberg jumps in, don't be surprised if Feinstein finishes third given the former two's more unlimited resources.

Connecticut: Safe D: This isn't the Governor's race, which easily could be a GOP pickup...Murphy should be fine.

Delaware: Safe D: If Beau Biden were still alive, this could have been interesting. Would he have challenged Carper?

Florida: Tossup: If Rick Scott runs, which it looks like he will, this race will be the hinge on how the night goes. If Republicans are beating expectations, Scott wins, but if Democrats are having a good night, or the night is neutral for both sides, Nelson wins.

Hawaii: Safe D: Soon, however, Democrats might be wishing Colleen Hanabusa challenged Hirono in the primary instead of running for Governor.

Indiana: Lean R: Joe Donnelly isn't dead yet, but he's an underdog to both Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, and even money against Mike Braun at this point.

Maine: Safe I: Unless an ambitious Democrat decides to challenge King, Paul LePage reverses course about running, or Olympia Snowe decides she's had enough retirement, King is winning easily.

Maryland: Safe D: Cardin probably should retire and make room for someone like Martin O'Malley, but he will win re-election easily.

Massachusetts: Safe D: While as a national lightning rod, her margin of victory may be in doubt, Elizabeth Warren's safety is not in question.

Michigan: Leans D: Stabenow is the favorite, but the potential candidacies of Kid Rock and Fred Upton both loom.

Minnesota: Likely D: Klobuchar is more popular than Stabenow, and has weaker potential opponents, plus unlike in Michigan, Hillary did carry the state.

Mississippi: Safe R: The only drama is if Wicker gets a primary challenger...like Chris McDaniel.

Missouri: Likely R: Hawley is far stronger than Akin, and McCaskill's strategy of messing with the GOP primary to ensure a victory won't work, because Austin Petersen has no money and no base.

Montana: Tossup: Matthew Rosendale certainly can beat Tester, but he's no lock to win the primary. If Rosendale doesn't win the primary, this race moves to Likely D.

Nebraska: Safe R: The big drama is if Deb Fischer draws a primary challenger. Bannon's looking, but it would behoove him to wait until 2020, when Sasse is up for re-election.

Nevada: Lean D: The Silver State's demographics are slipping away from Heller, and while he should win the primary, Jackie Rosen is a very strong contender.

New Jersey: Lean D: Assuming Menendez is convicted, the Democrats are narrow favorites, depending on who Governor Murphy appoints, while if he's acquitted, a scandal scarred Menendez will probably be under pressure to step aside, making this an open seat, in which Democrats would probably range from narrow underdogs (if Kean or Todd Whitman was the GOP nominee), to heavy favorites (if Christie was the GOP nominee).

New Mexico: Safe D: The only way this gets competitive at all, is if Susana Martinez jumps in.

New York: Safe D: Gillibrand is a mortal lock.

North Dakota: Lean R: Heitkamp may be a skilled retail politician, but North Dakota is very-GOP friendly, and whoever the GOP nominates (unless it's Ed Cramer) will be a better candidate than Rick Berg.

Ohio: Tossup: Brown probably is an underdog, but what's keeping this race in Tossup status is Mandel's poor skills as a candidate, having blown a winnable race against Brown in 2012.

Pennsylvania: Lean D: Casey is favored over Barletta, and heavily favored over Christiana and Saccone (?).

Rhode Island: Safe D: I don't know how Whitehouse loses.

Tennessee: Safe R: Even if Bredesen runs, Tennessee is just too Republican. Think of the Hawaii Senate race in 2012.

Texas: Likely R: Ted Cruz certainly can lose the primary, and if he does, Beto O' Rourke instantly becomes the favorite. Even if Cruz doesn't lose the primary, there's still a narrow path to victory for O'Rourke.

Utah: Safe R: Even if Hatch did step aside, Democrats would have no match.

Vermont: Safe I: Like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders is such a lightning rod, and Vermont is so pro-Sanders normally, that while the margin may vary, Sanders will win.

Virginia: Likely D: While Corey Stewart won't win, a stronger candidate, like Stephen Newman, Kirk Cox or Jim Gilmore could...

Washington: Safe D: Cantwell currently doesn't have a GOP opponent.

West Virginia: Likely R: Manchin has the unfortunate circumstance of having two strong opponents, plus a primary threat.

Wisconsin: Lean D: Leah Vukmir isn't quite the strongest foe, but Trump did win the state. If Scott Walker jumps in, this rating flips to Lean R.

Wyoming: Safe R: Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

[The Other Castro]

[IceSpear]

PA safer than MN?

[The Other Castro]

PA safer than MN?

Actually yeah that shouldn't be there. Fixed.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Ben McAdams opting to run in UT-4, it's clear that dems won't have a serious candidate in the senate race. So it moves from Likely R to Safe R:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (3): ND, WV, AZ
Lean R (2): IN (even), OH (R+1)
Likely R (3): AL, MO (R+2)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

Barring an utter GOP implosion, the only path to a democratic senate majority goes through the Alabama Special Election.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Ben McAdams opting to run in UT-4, it's clear that dems won't have a serious candidate in the senate race. So it moves from Likely R to Safe R:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (3): ND, WV, AZ
Lean R (2): IN (even), OH (R+1)
Likely R (3): AL, MO (R+2)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

Barring an utter GOP implosion, the only path to a democratic senate majority goes through the Alabama Special Election.

Wulfric is wrong again. Arizona special or Tennessee with Bredesen, or Mississippi special in a McDaniel vs. Presley race.

Until such time that we actually get a surprise resignation or death, I operate on the assumption that it will not occur. As for Bredesen, I'll believe he's running when and if he actually enters.

[Blackacre]

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, MD, NM, WA, HI

Solidly Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
VA, MN, WV, NJ, DE

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WI, OH, AZ, ND

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, MT, PA

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
IN

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
MO

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
AL-Special

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Solidly Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
TN, MS

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
UT, NE, WY

[Jeppe]

Safe Democratic: Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia (13)

Likely Democratic: Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New Jersey (4)
Baldwin and Stabenow seem likely to run for re-election without facing a serious Republican a candidate. Menendez's legal troubles might make the New Jersey more competitive than it should be.

Lean Democratic: Montana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia (4)
Democratic Trump state incumbents with strong approvals (besides Casey), but not enough polling data to give them the clear, are here.

Toss-up: Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and Florida (6)
Incumbents that seem to be struggling in early polls got bunched up in this category. Arizona seems likeliest to move into the Lean D category from this group.

Lean Republican: Texas (1)
Trump's approval numbers are horrible in Texas, and Cruz doesn't strike me as somebody who can win over Clinton voters. Beto O'Rourke is a strong recruit too.

Likely Republican: Utah, and Tennessee (2)
If Orrin Hatch somehow wins the primary, then this race could actually. break for the Democratic candidate. Tennessee could become competitive with Corker's retirement, with Marsha Blackburn pulling a Moore redux.

Safe Republican: Wyoming, Nebraska, Mississippi, Alabama (4)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As announced, Arizona moves to Lean D following Flake's retirement.


Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (2): IN (D+1), OH (even)
Likely R (2): AL, MO (R+1)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Blackacre]

My characterization of AZ as likely D was dependent on Flake and Ward having a damaging primary fight. Now that Flake is out, it moves to Leans D.

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, MD, NM, WA, HI

Solidly Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
VA, MN, WV, NJ, DE

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WI, OH, ND

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, MT, PA, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
IN

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
MO

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
AL-Special

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Solidly Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
TN, MS

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
UT, NE, WY

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.

Arizona moves from Leaning Dem to Likely Dem based on Flake retiring.  Alabama moves from Solid Rep to Likely Rep based on Roy Moore saying "Obergefell vs. Hodges was even worse than Dred Scott vs. Stanford".  No other rating changes.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not counting the upcoming Alabama Special...here is what I see.

Arizona: Lean D: Even if Flake wins the primary, pro Ward voters simply will not vote for him, and Simena's the strongest possible recruit (except for maybe Janet Napolitano, but she now lives in California)

California: Safe D: This race almost certainly will be D v D, especially now that De Leon is in... If Steyer or Sanberg jumps in, don't be surprised if Feinstein finishes third given the former two's more unlimited resources.

Connecticut: Safe D: This isn't the Governor's race, which easily could be a GOP pickup...Murphy should be fine.

Delaware: Safe D: If Beau Biden were still alive, this could have been interesting. Would he have challenged Carper?

Florida: Tossup: If Rick Scott runs, which it looks like he will, this race will be the hinge on how the night goes. If Republicans are beating expectations, Scott wins, but if Democrats are having a good night, or the night is neutral for both sides, Nelson wins.

Hawaii: Safe D: Soon, however, Democrats might be wishing Colleen Hanabusa challenged Hirono in the primary instead of running for Governor.

Indiana: Lean R: Joe Donnelly isn't dead yet, but he's an underdog to both Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, and even money against Mike Braun at this point.

Maine: Safe I: Unless an ambitious Democrat decides to challenge King, Paul LePage reverses course about running, or Olympia Snowe decides she's had enough retirement, King is winning easily.

Maryland: Safe D: Cardin probably should retire and make room for someone like Martin O'Malley, but he will win re-election easily.

Massachusetts: Safe D: While as a national lightning rod, her margin of victory may be in doubt, Elizabeth Warren's safety is not in question.

Michigan: Leans D: Stabenow is the favorite, but the potential candidacies of Kid Rock and Fred Upton both loom.

Minnesota: Likely D: Klobuchar is more popular than Stabenow, and has weaker potential opponents, plus unlike in Michigan, Hillary did carry the state.

Mississippi: Safe R: The only drama is if Wicker gets a primary challenger...like Chris McDaniel.

Missouri: Likely R: Hawley is far stronger than Akin, and McCaskill's strategy of messing with the GOP primary to ensure a victory won't work, because Austin Petersen has no money and no base.

Montana: Tossup: Matthew Rosendale certainly can beat Tester, but he's no lock to win the primary. If Rosendale doesn't win the primary, this race moves to Likely D.

Nebraska: Safe R: The big drama is if Deb Fischer draws a primary challenger. Bannon's looking, but it would behoove him to wait until 2020, when Sasse is up for re-election.

Nevada: Lean D: The Silver State's demographics are slipping away from Heller, and while he should win the primary, Jackie Rosen is a very strong contender.

New Jersey: Lean D: Assuming Menendez is convicted, the Democrats are narrow favorites, depending on who Governor Murphy appoints, while if he's acquitted, a scandal scarred Menendez will probably be under pressure to step aside, making this an open seat, in which Democrats would probably range from narrow underdogs (if Kean or Todd Whitman was the GOP nominee), to heavy favorites (if Christie was the GOP nominee).

New Mexico: Safe D: The only way this gets competitive at all, is if Susana Martinez jumps in.

New York: Safe D: Gillibrand is a mortal lock.

North Dakota: Lean R: Heitkamp may be a skilled retail politician, but North Dakota is very-GOP friendly, and whoever the GOP nominates (unless it's Ed Cramer) will be a better candidate than Rick Berg.

Ohio: Tossup: Brown probably is an underdog, but what's keeping this race in Tossup status is Mandel's poor skills as a candidate, having blown a winnable race against Brown in 2012.

Pennsylvania: Lean D: Casey is favored over Barletta, and heavily favored over Christiana and Saccone (?).

Rhode Island: Safe D: I don't know how Whitehouse loses.

Tennessee: Safe R: Even if Bredesen runs, Tennessee is just too Republican. Think of the Hawaii Senate race in 2012.

Texas: Likely R: Ted Cruz certainly can lose the primary, and if he does, Beto O' Rourke instantly becomes the favorite. Even if Cruz doesn't lose the primary, there's still a narrow path to victory for O'Rourke.

Utah: Safe R: Even if Hatch did step aside, Democrats would have no match.

Vermont: Safe I: Like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders is such a lightning rod, and Vermont is so pro-Sanders normally, that while the margin may vary, Sanders will win.

Virginia: Likely D: While Corey Stewart won't win, a stronger candidate, like Stephen Newman, Kirk Cox or Jim Gilmore could...

Washington: Safe D: Cantwell currently doesn't have a GOP opponent.

West Virginia: Likely R: Manchin has the unfortunate circumstance of having two strong opponents, plus a primary threat.

Wisconsin: Lean D: Leah Vukmir isn't quite the strongest foe, but Trump did win the state. If Scott Walker jumps in, this rating flips to Lean R.

Wyoming: Safe R: Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

Arizona moves to Safe D (at least until another Republican, like Jeff Dewit or Martha McSally jumps in), with Flake announcing he will not run for re-election.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not counting the upcoming Alabama Special...here is what I see.

Arizona: Lean D: Even if Flake wins the primary, pro Ward voters simply will not vote for him, and Simena's the strongest possible recruit (except for maybe Janet Napolitano, but she now lives in California)

California: Safe D: This race almost certainly will be D v D, especially now that De Leon is in... If Steyer or Sanberg jumps in, don't be surprised if Feinstein finishes third given the former two's more unlimited resources.

Connecticut: Safe D: This isn't the Governor's race, which easily could be a GOP pickup...Murphy should be fine.

Delaware: Safe D: If Beau Biden were still alive, this could have been interesting. Would he have challenged Carper?

Florida: Tossup: If Rick Scott runs, which it looks like he will, this race will be the hinge on how the night goes. If Republicans are beating expectations, Scott wins, but if Democrats are having a good night, or the night is neutral for both sides, Nelson wins.

Hawaii: Safe D: Soon, however, Democrats might be wishing Colleen Hanabusa challenged Hirono in the primary instead of running for Governor.

Indiana: Lean R: Joe Donnelly isn't dead yet, but he's an underdog to both Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, and even money against Mike Braun at this point.

Maine: Safe I: Unless an ambitious Democrat decides to challenge King, Paul LePage reverses course about running, or Olympia Snowe decides she's had enough retirement, King is winning easily.

Maryland: Safe D: Cardin probably should retire and make room for someone like Martin O'Malley, but he will win re-election easily.

Massachusetts: Safe D: While as a national lightning rod, her margin of victory may be in doubt, Elizabeth Warren's safety is not in question.

Michigan: Leans D: Stabenow is the favorite, but the potential candidacies of Kid Rock and Fred Upton both loom.

Minnesota: Likely D: Klobuchar is more popular than Stabenow, and has weaker potential opponents, plus unlike in Michigan, Hillary did carry the state.

Mississippi: Safe R: The only drama is if Wicker gets a primary challenger...like Chris McDaniel.

Missouri: Likely R: Hawley is far stronger than Akin, and McCaskill's strategy of messing with the GOP primary to ensure a victory won't work, because Austin Petersen has no money and no base.

Montana: Tossup: Matthew Rosendale certainly can beat Tester, but he's no lock to win the primary. If Rosendale doesn't win the primary, this race moves to Likely D.

Nebraska: Safe R: The big drama is if Deb Fischer draws a primary challenger. Bannon's looking, but it would behoove him to wait until 2020, when Sasse is up for re-election.

Nevada: Lean D: The Silver State's demographics are slipping away from Heller, and while he should win the primary, Jackie Rosen is a very strong contender.

New Jersey: Lean D: Assuming Menendez is convicted, the Democrats are narrow favorites, depending on who Governor Murphy appoints, while if he's acquitted, a scandal scarred Menendez will probably be under pressure to step aside, making this an open seat, in which Democrats would probably range from narrow underdogs (if Kean or Todd Whitman was the GOP nominee), to heavy favorites (if Christie was the GOP nominee).

New Mexico: Safe D: The only way this gets competitive at all, is if Susana Martinez jumps in.

New York: Safe D: Gillibrand is a mortal lock.

North Dakota: Lean R: Heitkamp may be a skilled retail politician, but North Dakota is very-GOP friendly, and whoever the GOP nominates (unless it's Ed Cramer) will be a better candidate than Rick Berg.

Ohio: Tossup: Brown probably is an underdog, but what's keeping this race in Tossup status is Mandel's poor skills as a candidate, having blown a winnable race against Brown in 2012.

Pennsylvania: Lean D: Casey is favored over Barletta, and heavily favored over Christiana and Saccone (?).

Rhode Island: Safe D: I don't know how Whitehouse loses.

Tennessee: Safe R: Even if Bredesen runs, Tennessee is just too Republican. Think of the Hawaii Senate race in 2012.

Texas: Likely R: Ted Cruz certainly can lose the primary, and if he does, Beto O' Rourke instantly becomes the favorite. Even if Cruz doesn't lose the primary, there's still a narrow path to victory for O'Rourke.

Utah: Safe R: Even if Hatch did step aside, Democrats would have no match.

Vermont: Safe I: Like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders is such a lightning rod, and Vermont is so pro-Sanders normally, that while the margin may vary, Sanders will win.

Virginia: Likely D: While Corey Stewart won't win, a stronger candidate, like Stephen Newman, Kirk Cox or Jim Gilmore could...

Washington: Safe D: Cantwell currently doesn't have a GOP opponent.

West Virginia: Likely R: Manchin has the unfortunate circumstance of having two strong opponents, plus a primary threat.

Wisconsin: Lean D: Leah Vukmir isn't quite the strongest foe, but Trump did win the state. If Scott Walker jumps in, this rating flips to Lean R.

Wyoming: Safe R: Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

Arizona moves to Safe D (at least until another Republican, like Jeff Dewit or Martha McSally jumps in), with Flake announcing he will not run for re-election.

A Safe D category is supposed to something that it's almost impossible for a race to get out of......Jeff DeWit jumping in is not "almost impossible".

[NewYorkExpress]

Not counting the upcoming Alabama Special...here is what I see.

Arizona: Lean D: Even if Flake wins the primary, pro Ward voters simply will not vote for him, and Simena's the strongest possible recruit (except for maybe Janet Napolitano, but she now lives in California)

California: Safe D: This race almost certainly will be D v D, especially now that De Leon is in... If Steyer or Sanberg jumps in, don't be surprised if Feinstein finishes third given the former two's more unlimited resources.

Connecticut: Safe D: This isn't the Governor's race, which easily could be a GOP pickup...Murphy should be fine.

Delaware: Safe D: If Beau Biden were still alive, this could have been interesting. Would he have challenged Carper?

Florida: Tossup: If Rick Scott runs, which it looks like he will, this race will be the hinge on how the night goes. If Republicans are beating expectations, Scott wins, but if Democrats are having a good night, or the night is neutral for both sides, Nelson wins.

Hawaii: Safe D: Soon, however, Democrats might be wishing Colleen Hanabusa challenged Hirono in the primary instead of running for Governor.

Indiana: Lean R: Joe Donnelly isn't dead yet, but he's an underdog to both Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, and even money against Mike Braun at this point.

Maine: Safe I: Unless an ambitious Democrat decides to challenge King, Paul LePage reverses course about running, or Olympia Snowe decides she's had enough retirement, King is winning easily.

Maryland: Safe D: Cardin probably should retire and make room for someone like Martin O'Malley, but he will win re-election easily.

Massachusetts: Safe D: While as a national lightning rod, her margin of victory may be in doubt, Elizabeth Warren's safety is not in question.

Michigan: Leans D: Stabenow is the favorite, but the potential candidacies of Kid Rock and Fred Upton both loom.

Minnesota: Likely D: Klobuchar is more popular than Stabenow, and has weaker potential opponents, plus unlike in Michigan, Hillary did carry the state.

Mississippi: Safe R: The only drama is if Wicker gets a primary challenger...like Chris McDaniel.

Missouri: Likely R: Hawley is far stronger than Akin, and McCaskill's strategy of messing with the GOP primary to ensure a victory won't work, because Austin Petersen has no money and no base.

Montana: Tossup: Matthew Rosendale certainly can beat Tester, but he's no lock to win the primary. If Rosendale doesn't win the primary, this race moves to Likely D.

Nebraska: Safe R: The big drama is if Deb Fischer draws a primary challenger. Bannon's looking, but it would behoove him to wait until 2020, when Sasse is up for re-election.

Nevada: Lean D: The Silver State's demographics are slipping away from Heller, and while he should win the primary, Jackie Rosen is a very strong contender.

New Jersey: Lean D: Assuming Menendez is convicted, the Democrats are narrow favorites, depending on who Governor Murphy appoints, while if he's acquitted, a scandal scarred Menendez will probably be under pressure to step aside, making this an open seat, in which Democrats would probably range from narrow underdogs (if Kean or Todd Whitman was the GOP nominee), to heavy favorites (if Christie was the GOP nominee).

New Mexico: Safe D: The only way this gets competitive at all, is if Susana Martinez jumps in.

New York: Safe D: Gillibrand is a mortal lock.

North Dakota: Lean R: Heitkamp may be a skilled retail politician, but North Dakota is very-GOP friendly, and whoever the GOP nominates (unless it's Ed Cramer) will be a better candidate than Rick Berg.

Ohio: Tossup: Brown probably is an underdog, but what's keeping this race in Tossup status is Mandel's poor skills as a candidate, having blown a winnable race against Brown in 2012.

Pennsylvania: Lean D: Casey is favored over Barletta, and heavily favored over Christiana and Saccone (?).

Rhode Island: Safe D: I don't know how Whitehouse loses.

Tennessee: Safe R: Even if Bredesen runs, Tennessee is just too Republican. Think of the Hawaii Senate race in 2012.

Texas: Likely R: Ted Cruz certainly can lose the primary, and if he does, Beto O' Rourke instantly becomes the favorite. Even if Cruz doesn't lose the primary, there's still a narrow path to victory for O'Rourke.

Utah: Safe R: Even if Hatch did step aside, Democrats would have no match.

Vermont: Safe I: Like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders is such a lightning rod, and Vermont is so pro-Sanders normally, that while the margin may vary, Sanders will win.

Virginia: Likely D: While Corey Stewart won't win, a stronger candidate, like Stephen Newman, Kirk Cox or Jim Gilmore could...

Washington: Safe D: Cantwell currently doesn't have a GOP opponent.

West Virginia: Likely R: Manchin has the unfortunate circumstance of having two strong opponents, plus a primary threat.

Wisconsin: Lean D: Leah Vukmir isn't quite the strongest foe, but Trump did win the state. If Scott Walker jumps in, this rating flips to Lean R.

Wyoming: Safe R: Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

Arizona moves to Safe D (at least until another Republican, like Jeff Dewit or Martha McSally jumps in), with Flake announcing he will not run for re-election.

A Safe D category is supposed to something that it's almost impossible for a race to get out of......Jeff DeWit jumping in is not "almost impossible".

I'm only using the current candidates as a basis for my ratings... If DeWit jumps in it probably only drops back down to likely D, and easily could return to Safe D, if Ward keeps her momentum.