2018 Senate Rankings

[Blackacre]

Next up, Montana. Tester may not be popular, but he doesn't have a strong opponent to run against, so he's a Likely D now. That will only change if a strong candidate comes in by the June deadline.

What June deadline? The filing deadline for the June primary election was March 12.

Oh wow, I messed up! Hahaha! So the deadline has passed. I'll fix that now. Thank you so much!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Florida joins the Toss-Up category.

Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA
Likely D (5): MI, NJ, MN-Special, PA, WI
Lean D (4): MT, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (4): WV, ND, TN, FL
Lean R (2): IN (D+1), MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Blackacre]

For the record, each of my ratings has a percentage attached to it. So for each rating, I'll give the percent odds of the Democrat winning, as well as Pokemon analogies because that's how I understand percentage odds:

Titanium Democratic: 100% (the odds of Flamethrower hitting the opponent with no modifiers to accuracy or evasion on either side. (after Gen 1, anyway))

Safely Democratic: 99.98779296875% (8191/8192 -- the same odds as finding a non-shiny Pokemon in the wild before Gen 6 and without a Shiny Charm)

Likely Democratic: 90% (the odds of a move like Draco Meteor and High Jump Kick hitting)

Leans Democratic: 75% (the odds of Icicle Spear hitting 2 or 3 times in Pokemon Platinum)

Tilts Democratic: 60% (the odds of Hypnosis hitting)

Tossup: 50% (the odds of Zap Cannon hitting, or the odds of Sacred Fire burning, or... you guys know what 50/50 is)

Tilts Republican: 40% (the odds of encountering a Zigzagoon in Route 101 in Pokemon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire)

Leans Republican: 25% (the odds of Fury Swipes hitting 4 or 5 times in Pokemon Platinum)

Likely Republican: 10% (the odds of Ice Beam freezing its target)

Safely Republican: 0.01220703125% (1/8192 -- the odds of finding a shiny Pokemon in the wild before Gen 6 and without a Shiny Charm)

Titanium Republican: 0% (the odds of Flamethrower burning its target when the user has the ability Sheer Force)

The other two models are the Leans-Only Expected Result and the Tilts-Only Expected Result. Leans-Only treats all Likely races as though they were Safe, and applies the Safe odds to them. Tilts-Only does the same thing, but extends it to Leans races as well. These exist to make up for the fact that I can't correlate races.

[Hoosier_Nick]

AZ: Lean D. If McSally wins, I'll consider moving this to a toss-up.
CA: Strong D
CT: Strong D
DE: Strong D, regardless of who wins the primary
FL: Lean D. Keeping this here for now, but I'll consider moving it to a toss-up if I see enough conclusive proof that this will be close. I'm still skeptical that a popular senator in a midterm year with an unpopular incumbent of the opposite party will lose.
HI: Strong D
IN: Toss-up. Though if Braun wins the primary I'll consider him the favorite and if Rokita or Messer win I'd say Donnelly. But it would just be tilts, it's still a toss-up.
ME: Strong I, previously Likely I. I was on the fence about this PA, WI, MI and MN-S as Strong D or Likely D. I decided to just move this and PA into Strong D but if things get bad enough for Rs I'll move all 5.
MD: Strong D
MA: Strong D
MI: Likely D. Check ME for info.
MN: Strong D
MN-S (Represented by Iowa): Likely D. Check ME for info.
MS: Likely R, but I'll consider moving this to Solid R if Dems don't get a good recruit
MS-S (Represented by Alabama): Lean R. Too long until we know the 2 nominees to know much about this race, though, since I don't think anybody is getting 50+%
MO: Toss-up. This is a pretty pure 50-50 in my eyes.
MT: Lean D
NE: Strong R, but if things get bad enough I'll move this to Likely R.
NV: Lean D
NJ: Strong D, previously Likely D. This recent poll shows that this is a little bit out of reach, despite Menendez's corruption problems
NM: Strong D
NY: Strong D
ND: Lean D, previously Likely D. Cramer is a decent recruit, though he's being a bit overrated to think that this is now a toss-up.
OH: Lean D
PA: Strong D. See ME
RI: Strong D
TN: Toss-up, previously Lean R. This is also kinda on the verge of Lean R, but I really think that this could be competitive. Bredesen is no Bayh. This should be close
TX: Likely R
UT: Strong R
VT: Strong I
VA: Strong D
WA: Strong D
WV: Lean D
WI: Likely D. Check ME
WY: Strong R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

My rankings for now (30% is tilt, 50% is likely, 90% is safe. IA is MN-Special, and AL is MS-Special.)

I still don't see Scott winning Florida, and Dems picking up AZ and NV is more likely than holding all their seats in red states imo.

[Orser67]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, NM, NJ, MI
Likely Democratic: PA, WI, FL, OH, MN-special
Lean Democratic: ND, WV, MT, IN, MO, NV, AZ
Tossup: None
Lean Republican: MS-special, TN
Likely Republican: TX
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN, NM
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, NJ, MI, MN-special, PA
Likely Democratic: WI, FL, OH, MT
Lean Democratic: WV, ND, IN, MO, NV, AZ
Tossup: None
Lean Republican: TN
Likely Republican: TX, MS-special
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

[Blackacre]

My Montana rating may be the most controversial thing I have here, but I'm going to stand by it for now. However, I have a few other changes to make:

First up, Pennsylvania. This race is not competitive. Casey is crushing the competition by margins you would expect in Connecticut or Washington state in a neutral environment. So his race reaches the Very Likely Democratic column, indicating that it is just not winnable for the Republicans this year. It will be replacing Delaware, a state that could have maybe flirted with competitiveness in a different year but not this one. The GOP doesn't have a credible candidate, so it moves to Safe Democratic.

Finally, West Virginia. Evan Jenkins is a legitimate threat to Manchin, so I'm moving their contest to Leans Democratic on the assumption that Jenkins will be Manchin's opponent. If Jenkins were to lose the primary, back up to Likely D it goes.

That makes WV one of a few states whose rating depends on the results of a primary election. Maryland goes up to Safe D if Cardin wins. (and to Tossup if Manning wins) Arizona goes to Tilt D if McSally wins and up to Likely D otherwise. Finally, in the unlikely occurrence that New Jersey selects someone other than Menendez as their Democratic candidate, NJ goes up to Safe.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances. (11)
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, VT, CT, WA, HI, DE

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms. (6)
MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, NJ, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
OH, MI, WI, NV, MT

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
WV, ND, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
IN, FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (2)
TN, MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
MS-S, TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (0)
Nothing here.

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms. (2)
NE, MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances. (2)
WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(Maine's CDs represent MN-Special and MS-Special, respectively)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 2 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.4
Median Outcome: D+2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+5
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+4

Not much changed, except for the Reasonable Republican Ceiling rising by 1 to account for WV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems aren't gonna sweep

Tilt D Mo, FL, TN, NV, FL
Tossup ND and MS
Leans R TX and AZ, Sinema can win

[Doimper]

I probably should have done this earlier, but AZ moves from Lean to Likely D.

MS-Special election is a Tossup and represented by AL on the map. MN-Special is Likely D and represented by IA on the map.

Current rankings (from most likely to least likely to flip):

1. NV
2. AZ
3. IN
4. MO
5. WV
6. MS-Special
7. MT
8. FL
9. TN
10. OH

Safe D (not a chance this seat flips, regardless of what may happen): CA, WA, NM, MN (regular), VA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, VT, MA, CT, RI, ME

Likely D (these states are currently not competitive and extremely unlikely to flip (except NV and AZ, which are D pickups), but there is at least a path for a Republican to win statewide): NV, WI, MI, PA, MN (special), AZ

Lean D (one party has a slight advantage): MT, OH, FL, ND

Tossup (these states could go either way): IN, MO, WV, MS (Special)

Lean R (one party has a slight advantage): MS (Regular), TN

Likely R (these states are currently not competitive and extremely unlikely to flip, but there is at least a path for a Democrat/Independent to win statewide): NE, TX

Safe R (not a chance this seat flips, regardless of what may happen): WY, UT

Not too hot on Wicker, huh?

[Blackacre]

Not too hot on Wicker, huh?

Mostly because the same party tends to win both seats in a double-barrel Senate election. He’s definitely favored, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he lost (same with Cruz, who is closer to Lean than Safe R). There’s a lot of uncertainty right now in the South, so I’m trying to be more cautious there.

It's worth noting that in all likelihood, the MS-Special will not be the same day as the normal election because of the runoff system

[Blackacre]

Time for a little adjusting.

Mississippi-Special moves to Likely Republican from Lean because of how strong Hyde-Smith is at the moment. Indiana moves to Lean D from Tilt because of the vicious GOP primary, and Donnelly is stronger than I expected. You know the drill; race does back to Tilt if Braun wins, goes to Likely if Rokita wins, and stays Lean if Messer wins.

Edit: Making an edit, and this will probably(?) be my last update until the May 8th primaries in Indiana and West Virginia. Vermont. It's Safe D, but as of the beginning of the insanely crudely made models of mine, Safe D gives the GOP a 1/8192 chance of winning. That's well and good in most states, like New York, that currently have that rating... but with Vermont, it's not bullish enough for Democrats. See, Bernie Sanders does not currently have a Republican challenger, and the filing deadline is at the end of May. So to account for that, I'm going to create a new set of ratings: Titanium Democratic and Titanium Republican. This rating is reserved for races without either a nominee from one of the two major parties or a sufficiently credible independent, and every state in this category has a 100% chance to go in that direction, sort of by definition. (This will be California's fate if two Democrats advance to the runoff) States in this category will be removed entirely from the visual aid, to indicate that this Senate race is not up for contention.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (1)
VT

Safely Democratic: This state will not vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances. (10)
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms. (6)
MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, NJ, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
OH, MI, WI, NV, MT

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
WV, ND, AZ, IN

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (2)
TN, MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (1)
MS-S

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms. (2)
NE, MS

Safely Republican: This state will not vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances. (2)
WY, UT

Titanium Republican: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Republican at the ballot box. (0)
Nothing here

And here's a visual aid!
(Maine's CDs represent MN-Special and MS-Special, respectively)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 2 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.4 (rounded to the nearest 0.1)
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+0.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.6
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+4

The Democrats' position did slightly decline; their uncorrelated expected result is actually +0.38, when it was +0.41 or something, and their reasonable ceiling dropped to the same +4 as the GOP has for its reasonable ceiling. But it's nothing to sweat over.

edit: I'm now getting a better sense of what the competitive races are this cycle: AZ, IN, WV, ND, MO, TN, TX, and FL. So I added a new section called Leans-only Expected Result, which treats Likely and Very Likely races as though they were safe, and applies the same odds (1/8192 of going for the underdog) as it does for Safe Races. It's the same general result though: An expected D gain between zero and one, and thus a very tight battle for Senatorial control. I'm also replacing the Median Outcome with "Tilts-Only Expected Result" because Tilts are simply tossups with a very slight tilt in one direction or another. Or an impure tossup.

[Blackacre]

apologies for the double-post, but does anyone know how to make the math so that races correlate? They typically do in US Senate contests.

Also, I should make a complete list of race changes that will occur if expected events take place: (this doesn't consider changes in polling except in Florida's case, because, no sh**t)

Florida: A lot of atlas wisdom is that Nelson is favored over Scott more than the polls currently suggest. I will accept this wisdom and shift Florida to Leans D if future polling bears this out. If Nelson leads 3 polls in a row by 4 points or more, up it goes. (I count the April 11th Nelson+6 poll as the first, so we'd need 2 more)

Arizona: That race becomes Likely D if Ward wins, Very Likely D if Arpaio wins, and Tilts D if McSally wins. Not changing the rating until Primary Day.

Indiana: Race changes to Likely D if Rokita wins, stays at Lean if Messer, and goes to Tossup or Tilts D if it's Braun.

Missouri: If by some miracle Hawley loses the nomination, MO goes to Leans D at the very least.

Michigan: This feels like a Very Likely D race. But we haven't had a poll since January. Give me a poll that confirms this gut feeling and I'll change it, like I did PA.

West Virginia: Blankenship makes it Likely D, Morressey keeps it at Leans D, and Jenkins makes it Tossup.

Maryland: A Manning win would change the race to Tossup. Otherwise, it reverts to Safe D after Primary Day.

Mississippi-Special: This race becomes Leans Democratic if Espy faces McDaniel and stays Likely Republican if Espy faces Hyde-Smith.

California: As you know, Safe races are technically not Safe, as I allow an incredibly small chance for the other party to win. If CA becomes DvD, I will create a new Titanium D rating for it and it alone, and set that rating to a 100% chance of a D win.

Arizona: Should a special election in the state be called to replace Sen. John McCain, it will start out in my rankings as Leans Democratic.

[NewYorkExpress]

apologies for the double-post, but does anyone know how to make the math so that races correlate? They typically do in US Senate contests.

Also, I should make a complete list of race changes that will occur if expected events take place: (this doesn't consider changes in polling except in Florida's case, because, no sh**t)

Florida: A lot of atlas wisdom is that Nelson is favored over Scott more than the polls currently suggest. I will accept this wisdom and shift Florida to Leans D if future polling bears this out. If Nelson leads 3 polls in a row by 4 points or more, up it goes. (I could the April 11th Nelson+6 poll as the first, so we'd need 2 more)

Arizona: That race becomes Likely D if Ward wins, Very Likely D if Arpaio wins, and Tilts D if McSally wins. Not changing the rating until Primary Day.

Indiana: Race changes to Likely D if Rokita wins, stays at Lean if Messer, and goes to Tossup or Tilts D if it's Braun.

Missouri: If by some miracle Hawley loses the nomination, MO goes to Leans D at the very least.

Michigan: This feels like a Very Likely D race. But we haven't had a poll since January. Give me a poll that confirms this gut feeling and I'll change it, like I did PA.

West Virginia: Blankenship makes it Likely D, Morressey keeps it at Leans D, and Jenkins makes it Tossup.

Maryland: A Manning win would change the race to Tossup. Otherwise, it reverts to Safe D after Primary Day.

Mississippi-Special: This race becomes Leans Democratic if Espy faces McDaniel and stays Likely Republican if Espy faces Hyde-Smith.

California: As you know, Safe races are technically not Safe, as I allow an incredibly small chance for the other party to win. If CA becomes DvD, I will create a new Titanium D rating for it and it alone, and set that rating to a 100% chance of a D win.

Arizona: Should a special election in the state be called to replace Sen. John McCain, it will start out in my rankings as Leans Democratic.

I'm sorry, but Chelsea Manning is NOT winning the Democratic Primary in Maryland.

[Blackacre]

apologies for the double-post, but does anyone know how to make the math so that races correlate? They typically do in US Senate contests.

Also, I should make a complete list of race changes that will occur if expected events take place: (this doesn't consider changes in polling except in Florida's case, because, no sh**t)

Florida: A lot of atlas wisdom is that Nelson is favored over Scott more than the polls currently suggest. I will accept this wisdom and shift Florida to Leans D if future polling bears this out. If Nelson leads 3 polls in a row by 4 points or more, up it goes. (I could the April 11th Nelson+6 poll as the first, so we'd need 2 more)

Arizona: That race becomes Likely D if Ward wins, Very Likely D if Arpaio wins, and Tilts D if McSally wins. Not changing the rating until Primary Day.

Indiana: Race changes to Likely D if Rokita wins, stays at Lean if Messer, and goes to Tossup or Tilts D if it's Braun.

Missouri: If by some miracle Hawley loses the nomination, MO goes to Leans D at the very least.

Michigan: This feels like a Very Likely D race. But we haven't had a poll since January. Give me a poll that confirms this gut feeling and I'll change it, like I did PA.

West Virginia: Blankenship makes it Likely D, Morressey keeps it at Leans D, and Jenkins makes it Tossup.

Maryland: A Manning win would change the race to Tossup. Otherwise, it reverts to Safe D after Primary Day.

Mississippi-Special: This race becomes Leans Democratic if Espy faces McDaniel and stays Likely Republican if Espy faces Hyde-Smith.

California: As you know, Safe races are technically not Safe, as I allow an incredibly small chance for the other party to win. If CA becomes DvD, I will create a new Titanium D rating for it and it alone, and set that rating to a 100% chance of a D win.

Arizona: Should a special election in the state be called to replace Sen. John McCain, it will start out in my rankings as Leans Democratic.

I'm sorry, but Chelsea Manning is NOT winning the Democratic Primary in Maryland.

You're probably right, but I am sufficiently worried as to not completely write her off until primary day comes and goes

Edit: Just for fun, I put together maps and odds for the best case scenarios (in terms of nominations, hype, and additional contests) for each party. For Democrats, this means a Special in Arizona to replace McCain, additional information confirming my gut feeling in MI and de-confirming my cut feeling in FL, and Arpaio, McDaniel, Rokita, Blankenship, and Cardin winning their primaries, as well as CA being DvD

NE-1 is AZ-S, NE-2 is MN-S, and NE-3 is MS-S. CA is removed entirely from the map.

Democrats: 52 Seats
Republicans: 46 Seats
Pure Tossup: 2 Seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+2.6 (Democrats are now favorites to take the upper chamber)
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+3.3
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+6
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1

Now for the best-case for Rs. Additional information keeps MI and FL bearish for Ds as they are, CA has a Republican move on to the Runoff, McCain is still in office after May 30th, and McSally, Jenkins, Manning, Braun, and Hyde-Smith all win their primaries.

Republicans: 48 Seats
Democrats: 47 Seats
Pure Tossup: 5 Seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~R+0.8 (so at this point, the GOP would be favored to make gains)
Leans-only Expected Result: R+0.3
Tilts-only Expected Result: R+0.3
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+6
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4

The point is, even if the national environment and state environments remain the same, more information, certain uncontrollable events, and primary results can determine a lot about who's favored in the upper chamber.

[Blackacre]

First rule of Spenstar: I can never stay away from something stupid for long. Time to adjust. Let's talk Arizona. I've been too bearish on that state for too long, predicated on the assumption that McSally can put the race in my tossup window (Tossups and Tilts) which, after the AZ-08 Special Election, is just no longer credible. Arizona moves to Likely D and is, like WV and IN, in a superposition: McSally makes it Leans D, Ward keeps it Likely, and Arpaio makes it Very Likely.

The other alteration is Tennessee. Bredesten has been leading in 3 polls in a row now, so it's about time I reflected that. It's Tilts D now, same as Florida.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (1)
VT

Safely Democratic: This state will not vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances. (10)
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms. (6)
MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, NJ, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
OH, MI, WI, NV, MT, AZ

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
WV, ND, IN

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
FL, TN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (2)
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (1)
MS-S

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms. (2)
NE, MS

Safely Republican: This state will not vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances. (2)
WY, UT

Titanium Republican: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Republican at the ballot box. (0)
Nothing here

And here's a visual aid!
(Maine's CDs represent MN-Special and MS-Special, respectively)

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.6 (rounded to the nearest 0.1)
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+1.2
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.7
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+3

These changes gave Democrats 1/5 of a Senate seat as far as the Uncorrelated model is concerned, and 30% of a seat for the Leans-only model. Democrats are now favored in enough seats that they could win the upper chamber without taking a single tossup or any states they're underdogs in.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Do you seriously have 13 different ratings? My lord. Anything more than 5 ratings is just absurd. tbh everyone should just have two ratings - D or R.

[Blackacre]

Do you seriously have 13 different ratings? My lord. Anything more than 5 ratings is just absurd. tbh everyone should just have two ratings - D or R.

Yes, yes I do. For two reasons.

Reason 1 is that, while on election day all races end up being either D or R, right now they're all in superpositions. It's useful for me to know that Vermont is more likely to send a Democrat to Washington than Connecticut, than Pennsylvania, than Wisconsin, than North Dakota, than Florida, than Missouri, than Texas, than MS-Special, than Nebraska, than Utah.

You can also think of my rankings as levels of competitiveness. Starting at Titanium D and going to tossup, it goes: Not even pretending to be competitive, uncompetitive, has the potential to become competitive, slightly competitive, quite competitive, very competitive, and maximally competitive.

The second reason is that this is fun for me, which is also why I update this thread so much.

[Sestak]

I'm going to start doing weekly (-ish) ratings.

Left and right arrows indicate a rating change to the left or to the right.

In the last week (or two-ish), I would:

Move AZ to Likely D. The AZ-08 numbers cement this.
Move TX to Likely R. I don't think Beto's going to happen. The primary numbers show that Texas, at the very least, doesn't seem to have the same enthusiasm for him as other states do for Dems.
Move PA to Safe D. While this is probably a conrroversial move, combining Casey's popularity, Lamb's win in PA-18, the ineptitude of Casey's opponents and their lack of traction in the polls, and the national environment, I'm pretty confident Casey won't lose.
Move MO to Lean D. I honestly don't think this move will last, but with Hawley getting caught up in the Greitens palooza, I'm giving Claire the slight edge.
Move TN to Tossup. Polling shows Bredesen performing quite strongly.
Move MS-Special to Lean R. Hyde-Smith seems stronger than expected, and McDaniel weaker. Also there's no second strong Dem to create the D vs D scenario, but there are other, weaker Dems who could bring about a Hyde-Smith - McDaniel runoff.

I'm also close to putting MT-Sen at Lean just out of caution.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The arrows are a very nice visualization.

[KingSweden]

The arrows are a very nice visualization.

Indeed. I really like them.

[Blackacre]

I'm stealing them next time I update my map

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

For the love of god, can people shut up about the texas primaries? they literally tell us nothing. i vote in gop primares all the time and i rarely vote republican.

and no, we're probably not going to gain 4 seats in illinois just bc dems outvoted. there's this thing called ancestral democrats

in az-08, gop outvoted dems by a whopping 66-33. dem ends up losing by 5 in the general

dems outvote gop 2-1 in virginia gov. northam only ends up winning by 9

texas primaries were 60-40 R. Beto could still easily win - just look at AZ-08.


primaries are literally a worse indicator of the general vote than saying republicans will lose because i just saw a bird poop on a grandma outside

[KingSweden]

The augurs have declared that Grandma was pooped on, therefore: blue wave confirmed.

Hey it’s no worse than King Lear’s “predictions”

[Blackacre]

I've decided to change how my ratings work. DTC is right, in that I have too many ratings, and honestly Very Likely is kind of redundant when you look at the numbers. what is the difference between a 98% chance and an almost 100% chance when the almost 100% chance isn't even absolute?

No more! As of now, the Very Likely ratings will be eliminated. Instead, races that could maybe plausibly be competitive in the future but are currently Safe will be italicized. Two races in the Very Likely column, however, move to Likely instead of Safe: Nebraska for the Republicans and New Jersey for the Democrats.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (1)
VT

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (15)
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE, MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (7)
NJ, OH, MI, WI, NV, AZ, MT

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
WV, ND, IN

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
FL, TN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (2)
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (2)
NE, MS-S

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (3)
MS, WY, UT

Titanium Republican: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Republican at the ballot box. (0)
Nothing here

And here's a visual aid! Yes I am aping Sestak's arrows, because it's a good thing to have!
(Maine's CDs represent MN-Special and MS-Special, respectively)

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.7 (rounded to the nearest 0.1)
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+1.2
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.7
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+3

[MT Treasurer]

Menendez is definitely more likely to win than Tester, lol.