2018 Senate Rankings

[Vespucci]

[mcmikk]

This is probably peak Atlas overreacting, but based on recent polling as well as the lying-about-Kavanaugh-to-get-elected scandal, I am moving TN from Tossup to Lean R.

[Politician]

I'm being slightly generous to the Democrats:

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm going to update my ratings too:

Arizona: Tossup
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Tossup
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Tossup
Maine: Safe I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Safe D
Minnesota: Safe D
Minnesota (Special): Safe D
Mississippi: Safe R
Mississippi (Special): Likely R
Missouri: Tossup
Montana: Lean D
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Tossup
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Safe D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Lean R
Ohio: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Safe D
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Lean R
Texas: Likely R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe I
Virginia: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Lean D
Wisconsin: Safe D
Wyoming: Safe R

[TarHeelDem]

Likely D: WV
Lean D: IN, FL
Tilt D: NV
Toss-Up: AZ, MO
Tilt R: ND
Lean R: TN, TX
Likely R: MS special

[aaroncd107]

Likely D - MN-2
Lean D - FL, MT, WV, NV
Tilt D - AZ, IN
Tilt R - MO
Lean R - ND, TX
Likely R - TN, MS-2

Feeling appropriately bullish on D senate chances. Right now i’m thinking best case for D’s is everything Lean R or better. I don’t see a come back for Phil in Tennessee, and McDaniel vs Espy isn’t happening.

[Xing]

Been a little while since I updated mine.

ND: Toss-Up -> Lean R (Might realistically be Likely R, but I want to see one more poll before making that move.

OH: Likely D -> Safe D

TN: Lean R -> Likely R (Probably Safe R, but I want to see what the polls say next week)

TX: Lean R -> Likely R

I might switch AZ and FL next week, depending on what polls say.

[IceSpear]

This is probably peak Atlas overreacting, but based on recent polling as well as the lying-about-Kavanaugh-to-get-elected scandal, I am moving TN from Tossup to Lean R.

The "lying about Kavanaugh" thing won't make a difference, but I'd actually say it's an underreaction considering the polling.

[MillennialModerate]

Updating my picks:


Tennessee (Lean R) ———> (SAFE R)
Arizona (Tossup) ———> (LEAN R)
Nevada (Lean R) ———-> (LIKELY R)
Missouri (Lean R) ————> (LIKELY R)

[IceSpear]

I’m moving North Dakota from Likely R to Safe R.
I’m moving Tennessee from Likely R to Safe R.

Updating my picks:


Tennessee (Lean R) ———> (SAFE R)
Arizona (Tossup) ———> (LEAN R)
Nevada (Lean R) ———-> (LIKELY R)
Missouri (Lean R) ————> (LIKELY R)

Interesting how Tennessee went from Likely R to Safe R, then somehow back to Lean R within a few days (but no post about it!), and then back to Safe R. <insert thinking emoji here>

It's almost as if these aren't your real opinions/ratings and you're just a concern troll reposting the same things over and over for attention...

[IceSpear]

Anyway, I'm not going to bother with a map since I think the states have sorted themselves out pretty nicely into the Likely/Safe pile and the toss up pile. With AZ, FL, IN, MO, MT, WV in the latter and the rest in the former. If Dems win all those, they get the pleasure of seeing a lot of Mike Pence over the next two years. But no net change to R+2 seems likeliest right now.

[mcmikk]

This is probably peak Atlas overreacting, but based on recent polling as well as the lying-about-Kavanaugh-to-get-elected scandal, I am moving TN from Tossup to Lean R.

The "lying about Kavanaugh" thing won't make a difference, but I'd actually say it's an underreaction considering the polling.

I think that's one issue that could make some difference, especially this late in the game. A candidate's staff straight up saying that they are lying to get elected probably is not a big help to their campaign, especially when running in a super R state where they have to be essentially Jesus to have a chance against any R. The double standard for Dems is most heavily felt in Titanium R states.

Regardless of that, though, the recent polling is showing a big move in Blackburn's direction. I'm hesitant to move it anywhere past Lean R because supposedly D and R internal polling is showing a much closer race, and the fact that we're still a month away.

Also, I'm just going to virtue signal and stroke my ego for a second by saying I was one of the minority that kept TN at Lean R for a long while after other people were moving it to Tossup to Lean D. I still never understood anything past Tossup.

[MillennialModerate]

I’m moving North Dakota from Likely R to Safe R.
I’m moving Tennessee from Likely R to Safe R.

Updating my picks:


Tennessee (Lean R) ———> (SAFE R)
Arizona (Tossup) ———> (LEAN R)
Nevada (Lean R) ———-> (LIKELY R)
Missouri (Lean R) ————> (LIKELY R)

Interesting how Tennessee went from Likely R to Safe R, then somehow back to Lean R within a few days (but no post about it!), and then back to Safe R. <insert thinking emoji here>

It's almost as if these aren't your real opinions/ratings and you're just a concern troll reposting the same things over and over for attention...

I didn’t realize I had Tennessee in the “Likely” category, thought I had it in Lean.

And it’s not “concern trolling”. How about you just respect that it’s my genuine opinion?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sherrod Brown raising a cool 27 mil

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1050764485634322433

[ElectionsGuy]

Update

NV: Lean D --> Toss-Up (Tilt D) (this ought to annoy someone)
TN: Lean R --> Likely R
TX: Lean R --> Likely R

(IA = MN-S) (AL = MS-S)

>30% = Tilt
>50% = Lean
>70% = Likely
>90% = Safe

[jamestroll]

Lol those are exactly my ratings

[Kodak]

Updated polls. Red states seem to be shifting towards Republicans across the board, although most of that shift seems to be driven by a change in who is conducting the polls. A lot of new polls are coming from Republican internals and pollsters that were already giving favorable results to Republicans.

That said, North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas look like they're actually slipping away from the Democrats.

[adrac]

1. Arizona
2. Nevada
3. North Dakota

4. Florida
5. Missouri

6. Tennessee
7. Indiana
8. Montana
9. Texas

Changes:
Tennessee: Tossup -> Lean R

[Orser67]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN, NM
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, MI, MN-special, PA, VA, OH, WI
Likely Democratic: NJ, MT, WV
Lean Democratic: AZ, NV, FL, IN
Tossup: MO
Lean Republican: ND, TN, TX
Likely Republican: MS-special
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN, NM
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, MI, MN-special, PA, VA, OH, WI
Likely Democratic: NJ, MT, WV
Lean Democratic: AZ, NV, FL, IN
Tilt Democratic: MO
Tilt Republican: None
Lean Republican: ND, TN, TX
Likely Republican: MS-special
Very Likely Republican: None
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT, MS

I figured I might as well join the "no tossups" club.

[mcmikk]

Ratings as of 10/18/2018:



Changes:

AZ: Lean D --> Tossup
FL: Lean D --> Tossup
ND: Tossup --> Lean R

**Although I'm still fairly confident that Nelson and Sinema will win out in the end, I think both their races have tightened enough to warrant them being in Tossup territory.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s been a while, and this will most likely be my last update before the election unless something changes dramatically.

(IA = MN-Special, AL = MS-Special)

47 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 6 Toss-ups

AZ: Likely D -> Lean D (Likely D was probably a bridge too far, but I’d say Sinema's still a slight favorite here. I could definitely see this and/or MT going Republican [narrowly] if the GOP has a better than expected night, though.)

OH/WV: Lean D -> Likely D (I don’t think an explanation is needed, honestly. Democrats should win both states unless 2018 turns out to be a 2014-style R year. Morrisey and Renacci have been major disappointments, honestly.)

TX: Lean R -> Likely R (Cruz might underperform, but he should be fine.)

However, I still think Republicans are well-positioned to win all the Toss-up races (ND/MS-Special/TN/MO/IN/FL in that order, with FL the one I’m least sure about).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IN tilts Dem

[TarHeelDem]

NV - Lean D
IN - Lean D
FL - Tilt D
AZ - Tilt D
MO - Tilt D
ND - Lean R
TX - Lean R
TN - Lean R

[Politician]

Changes:
Arizona: Tossup->Lean D
New Jersey: Likely D->Safe D
North Dakota: Lean R->Likely R (gags)

[adrac]

1. Nevada
2. North Dakota
3. Arizona


4. Missouri

5. Florida
6. Indiana
7. Tennessee
8. Montana

Changes:
Texas: Lean R -> Likely R
Florida: Tilt D -> Lean D
Indiana and Tennessee swap order