2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Safe D (3): OR, HI, RI
Likely D (3): CA, NY, CT
Lean D (7): CO, MN, PA, MI (D+1), ME (D+2), IL (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, AZ
Likely R (4): MA, SC, TN, KS
Safe R (8): ID, WY, SD, NE, TX, AR, AL, OK

Note: Old Ratings. See update on Page 3 2.

[smoltchanov]

Depends. If Malloy runs - Connecticut can flip. If Scott Avedisian will finally run for Governor, not Warwick mayor - Rhode Island becomes very competitive.And so on in may other cases... And i would put Democratic chances in present day Georgia and Arizona higher then  in present day Iowa and Ohio...

[publicunofficial]

Probably a better chance of the GOP winning Rhode Island than California or New York. Raimondo isn't popular.

I'm guessing California is Likely D because of "Muh top-two"?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yep. I'm convinced that top-two is going to jinx the CA Democrats at some point. I mean, their bench is like 40 or 50 candidates strong. National Dems were able to hold it to only 2 major democrats for the senate race this year, but I feel like at some point, the dam is going to break. The party will try to go "Okay, it's time for you two to run, then it's time for you two to run, and so on....", but at some point, the politicians will be so eager for a promotion that they will just ignore the national party's pleadings, and 5, 6, 7 Dems will jump in the same race. And Rs might just find the right two candidates.

The way I look at a Safe Category is that I should never have to move a race out of it. I don't use a rothenberg-esque "Safe as of Today" category. I use a "Completely Safe" Category.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

seems fair enough, although if you're really serious about being wary of "safe" states, demote unpopular and scandal-prone incumbents (Raimondo and Ricketts) as well as open seats like Oklahoma, Wyoming et al from the safe category.

[Kingpoleon]

If KS is not Safe R, NE is not Safe R.

[mds32]

Safe D (3)- OR, HI, RI
Likely D (2)- CA, NY,
Lean D (6)- CO, MN, PA, MI (D+1), NM (D+2), CT
Toss-Up (- NV, IA, WI, OH, FL, AK, IL, ME
Lean R (4)- GA, MD, NH, VT,
Likely R (5)- MA, SC, TN, KS, AZ
Safe R (- ID, WY, SD, NE, TX, AR, AL, OK

[Maxwell]

Safe R - AL, AR, ID, NE, SD, TN, TX
Likely R - KS, SC
Lean R - AZ, IA
Toss-Up - FL, GA, IL, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, OH, VT, WI
Lean D - CO, ME, PA, RI
Likely D - AK (I=D), CT, NM, OR
Safe D - CA, HI, NY,

Among the Toss-Ups
Tilt R - FL, GA, NH, OH
Pure Toss-up - IL, MD, MA, NV, VT
Tilt D - MI, MN, WI

[publicunofficial]

Including the 2017 races:

Safe D - Oregon, California, Hawaii, New York
Likely D - Rhode Island, Connecticut
Lean D - New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Alaska
Toss-Up: New Mexico, Nevada, Minnesota, Illinois, Florida, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, Michigan
Lean R - Massachusetts, Maryland, Ohio, Wisconsin, Vermont
Likely R: Nebraska, Georgia, Arizona, Kansas
Safe R - Alabama, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Iowa

Obviously these ratings will change a lot depending on polling, recruitment, national environment, ect.

[PAK Man]

2017 races:

New Jersey - Leans D (+1)
Virginia - Tossup

2018 races:

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Leans D
Connecticut - Tossup
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Leans R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup
Iowa - Likely R (Doubt Branstad runs again but Dems have a depleted bench)
Kansas - Likely R
Maine - Tossup
Maryland - Tossup
Massachusetts - Tossup
Michigan - Tossup
Minnesota - Leans D
Nebraska - Likely R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Leans R
New Mexico - Tossup
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Leans R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Leans D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Leans R
Wisconsin - Leans R
Wyoming - Safe R

[Xing]

(Alaska is Likely I)

[AtorBoltox]

I'm not sure about Kansas. There was a massive swing against Brownback in 2014 during a republican wave year, and it's not like things have gotten any better.

[smoltchanov]

I'm not sure about Kansas. There was a massive swing against Brownback in 2014 during a republican wave year, and it's not like things have gotten any better.

Depends on candidate. "Second incarnation of Brownback" - can lose, otherwise state will stay Republican.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In order of most likely to be Democratic to most likely to be Republican.

* Bill Walker I'm counting as a Democrat for convenience sake.

Hawaii
Oregon
California
New York
Rhode Island
Colorado
New Mexico - don't see much of a post-Martinez future for GOP
Minnesota
Connecticut - with or without Malloy. Would not be hugely surprised if this state ultimately is the only D state that flips.
Maine
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Nevada - if Heller runs, move this down list
Alaska*
Michigan - if Democrats don't gain this seat, they're an incompetent party.
Illinois - I think Rauner is less doomed than one might think, but is an underdog.
Wisconsin - with or without Walker
Florida
Iowa

Ohio
Arizona
New Hampshire
Kansas
Nebraska - could be a sleeper hit for Democrats
Georgia - would be higher if not for run-off
Maryland - if I didn't think there's a chance Hogan retires due to Health, it would be lower on the list.
Vermont
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
South Dakota
Wyoming
Idaho
Alabama
Texas
Arkansas

So yeah, that's a current projection of plus eight assuming Donald Trump has mediocre poll numbers. New Jersey is currently nestled as more likely Democratic than Rhode Island, and Virginia between Connecticut and Maine.

[user12345]

[Kingpoleon]

Safe D: CA, HI, NY, RI
Likely D: AK, ME, MI, PA, WI
Lean D: CT, MN
Tossup: CO, FL, GA, IL, MD, NH, NM, NV, VT
Lean R: AL, AZ, IA, KS, MA, NE, OH, SC
Likely R: ID, TX, WY
Safe R: AR, OK, SD, TN

[politicallefty]

Yep. I'm convinced that top-two is going to jinx the CA Democrats at some point. I mean, their bench is like 40 or 50 candidates strong. National Dems were able to hold it to only 2 major democrats for the senate race this year, but I feel like at some point, the dam is going to break. The party will try to go "Okay, it's time for you two to run, then it's time for you two to run, and so on....", but at some point, the politicians will be so eager for a promotion that they will just ignore the national party's pleadings, and 5, 6, 7 Dems will jump in the same race. And Rs might just find the right two candidates.

That may be so, but California's statewide offices have largely been musical chairs for some officials. I think California Dems are smart enough to keep to no more than two (maybe three) per position. With a strict two-term limit, statewide positions open up on a regular basis. Lt. Gov, AG, and Insurance Commissioner are open. (Hopefully, Governor Brown appoints a caretaker to AG after Harris stands down or at least appoints an ambitious Democrat that would otherwise certainly run.) I'm not sure what else is open. If Feinstein retires, there would definitely be enough openings for ambitious Democrats to not pile up in certain races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Updated Governor rankings

Tilt D
CA, CT, CO, NV, NH, ME, NJ, VA, AK



Tossup
WI, IL


Tilt R
VT, MA, MD, FL, Iowa, OH

[FairBol]

Likely D (3): CA, NY, CT

I wouldn't be so sure about CT.  A lot of people here are FED UP with Dan Malloy, and the state GOP just took control of the CT Senate.  If we run the right candidate in 2018, it appears we in the GOP might have a shot at the Governor's Mansion. 

[JMT]

Likely D (3): CA, NY, CT

I wouldn't be so sure about CT.  A lot of people here are FED UP with Dan Malloy, and the state GOP just took control of the CT Senate.  If we run the right candidate in 2018, it appears we in the GOP might have a shot at the Governor's Mansion. 

As a Democrat I'm hoping Malloy steps aside and lets someone else run. I'm doubtful that will happen though

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Not including rankings for VT and NH yet because the new governors haven't even taken office yet.

AK is counted as D for convenience sake.

[Orser67]

Safe D (3)- OR, HI, RI
Likely D (5)- CA, NY, CT, NJ (D+1)
Lean D (8)- CO, MN, PA, VA, MI (D+2), NM (D+3), NV (D+4), ME (D+5)
Toss-Up (7)- IA, WI, OH, FL, IL, MD, NH
Lean R (4)- GA, VT, MA, AZ
Likely R (5)- SC, KS, SD, TX, AL
Safe R (6)- ID, WY, NE, AR, OK, TN

Likely I - AK

[publicunofficial]

Seems that the consensus is that New Mexico + New Jersey are the most vulnerable states.

[BuckeyeNut]

Likely D (3): CA, NY, CT

I wouldn't be so sure about CT.  A lot of people here are FED UP with Dan Malloy, and the state GOP just took control of the CT Senate.  If we run the right candidate in 2018, it appears we in the GOP might have a shot at the Governor's Mansion. 

An 18-18 tie with a Democratic tiebreaker isn't exactly a GOP win, though it is damn close.

[FairBol]

Likely D (3): CA, NY, CT

I wouldn't be so sure about CT.  A lot of people here are FED UP with Dan Malloy, and the state GOP just took control of the CT Senate.  If we run the right candidate in 2018, it appears we in the GOP might have a shot at the Governor's Mansion. 

As a Democrat I'm hoping Malloy steps aside and lets someone else run. I'm doubtful that will happen though

I wouldn't bet on that happening.