2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Thunder98]

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A different type of prediction:

My expectation on how each gubernatorial race will swing compared to 2016 presidential margins.

[wesmoorenerd]

My personal ranking of the top eleven states most likely to flip to the Democrats:

1. Illinois
2. New Mexico
3. Maine
4. Nevada
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Florida
8. Ohio
9. Iowa
10. Georgia
11. Arizona

I'd say the Democrats are favored, even if by slight margins in some cases, in the top six (IL, NM, ME, NV, MI, WI). Florida right now is essentially a coin toss since there are still so many factors, with the primaries still a ways away. Ohio might honestly be a coin toss at this point too, I'd struggle to argue that DeWine is still a clear favorite at this point in the race. The last three (IA, GA, AZ) all seem to be trending in the Democrats' direction if you ask me, between Hubbell proving to be a surprisingly strong candidate, Cagle and Kemp slowly getting destroyed in the runoff, and AZ generally staying quiet but with the strong possibility of an upset. All of them still have a good amount of ground for the Dems to make up, though. If the election were to happen today, I'd say the Dems gain anywhere from 6-8 seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ will flip before Ga

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can lose LA and win the KY governorship

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI and ME probably Leans R

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two rating changes, unrelated to the last set of primaries: New Mexico moves from Lean D to Likely D thanks to the latest polling. Arizona moves from Likely R to Lean R due to Ducey's persistently low approval ratings. The race still seems to be a low priority for democratic strategists and Ducey is still undoubtedly the favorite, but I don't think he quite merits the Likely R rating anymore.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (4): CT, RI, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+3), ME (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (2): NV, FL
Lean R (8) : GA, VT, KS, NH, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+5, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D NM, IL, ME, WI, MI
Tossup NV, MD*wildcard
Tilt R FL, OH, AK

[wesmoorenerd]

Hot new gubernatorial ratings:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[smoltchanov]

2 westroopnerd. Yours could be my map too. With exceptions of Connecticut and Minnesota, which i would hold as tossup untill present mess will be sorted...

[Atlas Force]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Lean D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Tossup
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Lean R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Safe R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[Zaybay]

My Rankings, as of July 20th(will update when important events occur, polling is released, or a large gap of time has occurred)

[😥]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Lean R (with Begich)
Arizona - Tossup/Tilt R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Tilt D
Florida - Tossup/Tilt D
Georgia - Tossup/Tilt R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Tossup/Tilt R
Kansas - Lean I
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Likely R
Nevada - Tossup/Tilt D
New Hampshire - Lean R
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup/Tilt D
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Tilt R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D CO, IL, ME, MI, MN, NM, PA, WI, AK Indie
Wildcard NV, MD
Rest are tilt R

[libertpaulian]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tilt R (with Begich)
Arizona - Tilt R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanium D
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Tilt D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Lean R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Lean R
Kansas - Tilt R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Likely D
Nebraska - Likely R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Likely R
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Tilt R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Tilt D
Wyoming - Likely R

My updated projections in light of primaries, specials, polling, and the overall political environment as of yesterday.

[Thunder98]

My Gubernatorial Election ratings as of 7/21/2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems need WI, MI, IL, CO, NV and ME; OH, FL and AZ are purple states giving Dems the keys to Congress. But the ones that are needed is to clinch presidency. I doubt that Dems win TN or KS

[PAK Man]

Updated ratings:

AL - Safe R
AK - Tossup
AZ - Leans R
AR - Safe R
CA - Safe D
CO - Leans D
CT - Tossup
FL - Tossup
GA - Leans R
HI - Safe D
ID - Safe R
IL - Likely D (D+1)
IA - Leans R
KS - Leans R
ME - Leans D (D+1)
MD - Leans R
MA - Safe R
MI - Tossup
MN - Leans D (Pawlenty is WAY overhyped by handicappers)
NE - Safe R
NV - Tossup
NH - Leans R
NM - Leans D (D+1)
NY - Safe D
OH - Tossup
OK - Likely R
OR - Likely D
PA - Likely D
RI - Leans D
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Likely R
TX - Safe R
VT - Safe R
WI - Leans R
WY - Safe R

[Suburban Republican]

Here are my gubernatorial ratings.



Without tossups, AK, OH, and CT lean R, while NV, WI, MI, FL, RI and ME lean D.

[mcmikk]

My ratings as of 7/23/18:



Lotta changes in this one it seems.

AZ: Likely R --> Lean R
IA: Lean R --> Tossup
GA: Likely R --> Lean R
SC: Safe R --> Likely R
TN: Safe R --> Likely R
PA: Likely D --> Safe D
MD: Lean R --> Likely R
RI: Safe D --> Lean D

[aaroncd107]

Is this the best case scenario for the Dems? https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=745

edit: I made my actual prediction right after making this, and I didn’t know the map reset. The original map had Republicans winning only MA, AR, AL, TX, NE, SD, ID, and WY.

[Zaybay]

Is this the best case scenario for the Dems? https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=745

If this was truly a best case, Baker would be overwhelmed by partisanship and deserted by Conservatives, leaving a Dem as Governor. Other than that, this is it!

[ON Progressive]

Is this the best case scenario for the Dems? https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=745

If this was truly a best case, Baker would be overwhelmed by partisanship and deserted by Conservatives, leaving a Dem as Governor. Other than that, this is it!

I'd also argue South Dakota would be a part of a best case scenario. We have a fantastic candidate there in Billie Sutton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems pickup AZ, FL, GA, IL, ME, MD, MI, NM, OH and TN
GOP pickup OR and RI
AK remain indie 8 seat pickup by Dems