2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[South Dakota Democrat]

Dems pickup AZ, FL, GA, IL, ME, MD, MI, NM, OH and TN
GOP pickup OR and RI
AK remain indie 8 seat pickup by Dems

I very much doubt that the Dems pickup MD, GA, and TN while losing OR and RI.  CT seems much more likely to be a GOP pickup than those 2.

I also very much doubt that Walker wins in AK.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker is capable of winning in AK

[South Dakota Democrat]

Walker is capable of winning in AK

Doesn't mean he's favored to, or that he ultimately will.  Also, why's he so unpopular then?  And how does he overcome the split vote with Begich? (even though Walker isn't a Democrat, I think he'll be perceived as one, since it was him one on one against a Republican last time)

[Tartarus Sauce]

Is this the best case scenario for the Dems? https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=745

If this was truly a best case, Baker would be overwhelmed by partisanship and deserted by Conservatives, leaving a Dem as Governor. Other than that, this is it!

Not quite, he forgot Kansas and Oklahoma.

[Doimper]

Is this the best case scenario for the Dems? https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=745

If this was truly a best case, Baker would be overwhelmed by partisanship and deserted by Conservatives, leaving a Dem as Governor. Other than that, this is it!

Not quite, he forgot Kansas and Oklahoma.

And TN and SC.

[aaroncd107]

Is this the best case scenario for the Dems? https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=745

If this was truly a best case, Baker would be overwhelmed by partisanship and deserted by Conservatives, leaving a Dem as Governor. Other than that, this is it!

Not quite, he forgot Kansas and Oklahoma.

And TN and SC.

See the edit I made.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Best case scenario Dems +9 26D-24R's; never mind MA

You seem very stuck to the idea that Dems will win MD.  What makes you think this?  I see literally no evidence of this thus far.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Best case scenario Dems +9 26D-24R's; never mind MA

You seem very stuck to the idea that Dems will win MD.  What makes you think this?  I see literally no evidence of this thus far.

You didn't notice that he has MA favoriting the Dems, as well?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems 25 R's 25

[South Dakota Democrat]

Best case scenario Dems +9 26D-24R's; never mind MA

You seem very stuck to the idea that Dems will win MD.  What makes you think this?  I see literally no evidence of this thus far.

You didn't notice that he has MA favoriting the Dems, as well?

I did, but he had a note saying to forget MA, so I assumed he made a mistake and was aware of it but just didn't change the map accordingly.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Seeing as how I expect the dems to do very well house wise (win GCB by 10-15 points), it makes sense when considering local conditions (such as those in OK and KS as well), that they will do very well with gubernatorial races



The confidence map itself has tons of tossups.....

I don't have a ton of confidence on the gop in KS, OK, and FL and feel they will nominate the worst GE candidates (Kobach, Stitt, DeSantis) and the wave is going to be so large it will push dems over in WI, IA, OH, AZ, NV, AK, and GA, that being said, I could still see some really weird stuff happening and I don't think they have enough to push MD atlas red.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Just to add.....the tossups (MI should be Lean D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Seeing as how I expect the dems to do very well house wise (win GCB by 10-15 points), it makes sense when considering local conditions (such as those in OK and KS as well), that they will do very well with gubernatorial races



The confidence map itself has tons of tossups.....

I don't have a ton of confidence on the gop in KS, OK, and FL and feel they will nominate the worst GE candidates (Kobach, Stitt, DeSantis) and the wave is going to be so large it will push dems over in WI, IA, OH, AZ, NV, AK, and GA, that being said, I could still see some really weird stuff happening and I don't think they have enough to push MD atlas red.

Karl Dean has a better chance of being governor

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I do have TN as a tossup, waiting for the primary.

[Zaybay]

My Rankings, as of July 26th



VT: Likely R -> Lean R
It seems that Phil Scott has been slipping in approvals, which is the only reason many R Blue State Governors are winning in the first place. The Dem field is still rather weak, but if Phil cant maintain a solid approval, any Dem will be able to walk over him.

MN: Likely D -> Safe D
With Walz catching back up to the lead against Swanson, Im moving this to Safe D. The scandals Swanson was suffering from were the only think keeping this at likely D, and with the rise of Walz, it appears MN may avoid this. Of course, if Walz loses, I move this back to Likely D. Then again, Tim Pawlenty is a really weak candidate, so it might be Safe D no matter what.

WI: Tossup -> Lean D
I was waiting for the MC approval numbers and Marist polls to come out before I decided where to move this state, and it seems the Ds will be gaining for this entire update. Walker has suffered from moderately unpopular approvals and the drag that occurs when you are governor for too long. To compound that, WI has been moving the most against Trump in both specials and court elections. The Marist poll was really just the icing on the cake.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Safe D:
CA
OR
IL
NY
NM
HI

Likely D:
CO
NV


Lean D:
PA
RI
MI
CT
ME
AZ
MN

True Toss-up:
FL
MI (moving this left if Whitmer wins the primary)
GA
AK

Lean R:
IA

Likely R:
OH
WI

Safe R:
ID
WY
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
AR
TN
AL
SC
VT
NH
MA

[Blackacre]

Time to take a stab at this, in tandem with my Senate ratings.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (4)
OR, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
CO, MN, WI, MI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
GA, NV

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (5)
AK, CT, RI, IA, OH

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
FL, AZ

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (3)
KS, OK, VT

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, TN, SC

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, NE, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 21 Governorships
Republicans: 24 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+7.4, R-6.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+7.3, R-6.8
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+7.5, R-7.0
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+2, D-1

two quick notes: one, tossup is yellow here because of independents in KS and AK which get green. Second, I am on principle opposed to moving any race into Safe that is currently held by the party that I consider the underdog. This is why IL and NM, for instance, will never go above Likely D.

edit: one party is gaining more than the other is losing because of Alaska. It is currently held by an independent who I am COMPLETELY writing off at this juncture

[Blackacre]

FL is tilt D and SD, ID, and OK are competetive

Im keeping FL at Tilt R because Im kinda bullish on FL Dems messing up the nomination. FL, OK, and a couple other states are primary-dependent.

OK is Leans R, which is in what I understand to be the competitive window. SD at Likely R also seems about right for now. I dont really see why ID is competitive enough to move into Likely, but I'll at least give it the "safe with an asterisk" rating along with MA and WY. Thanks!

[morgieb]

Alabama: Safe R. The Dems would definitely have a path in an open seat, but Ivey is too popular to beat in such a Republican state.
Alaska: Toss-up. Lots of things could happen here, with an unpopular Indy governor who was elected on Democratic support and a strong Democratic candidate.
Arizona: Toss-up. Increasingly looking like this might be the Virginia moment (i.e. a safe-ish Republican state turning blue [Atlas red]). Ducey isn't toxic, but he isn't super popular either and that may not be enough.
Arkansas: Safe R.
California: Safe D. Open seats can be weird but no reason for Newsom to be in trouble.
Colorado: Likely D. Wrong year for the Republicans to gain it. Would be close otherwise.
Connecticut: Toss-up. Malloy's toxic and the Republicans seem to have a few decent candiates here.
Florida: Toss-up. The purplest state in the nation, so naturally it gets the default ranking. I do worry about Levine's electability, but wait and see.
Georgia: Lean R. Abrams is a strong candidate, but can enough black Dems turn out? And a run-off would likely screw Democrats here. Will be close either way though.
Hawaii: Safe D. Ige is unpopular, but he probably loses the primary. And this is a state where the Republican party seems non-existant.
Idaho: Safe R. Open seat, but the state is so red and the Republican candidate sufficiently non-crazy for this to not be competitive.
Illinois: Safe D. I suppose Pritzker would have skeletons in his closet, but Rauner is an unpopular incumbent running in a Democratic state in a Democratic year. He's set for a Blanching.
Iowa: Toss-up.
Kansas: Lean R. Brownback resigning early and Orman's independent run might save Republicans here. The party isn't popular but a sufficiently non-crazy candidate like Colyer is probably enough to save it given he has incumbency advantages.
Maine: Toss-up. Anything could happen here. 3 way race and the Dems didn't pick their best candidate.
Maryland: Lean R. Hogan is popular, but I still think he's closer to an Erlich than a Weld. Maryland doesn't seem a particularly elastic state and I think his support could prove to be soft eventually. But it's past the point where it's a legitimate toss-up.
Massachusetts: Safe R. Baker is walking it.
Michigan: Toss-up. Assuming Whitmer's the candidate, it's probably Lean D as it seems a Generic D v R sort of race, and it's a (2016 excluded) generally Lean D state in a Democratic climate. Keeping it toss-up though as neither El-Sayed or Thanedar seem very electable.
Minnesota: Likely D. Wrong climate for Republicans. Pawlenty is a name but he'll suffer from the same problems Evan Bayh had, and unlike Bayh he was never particularly beloved here anyway. The only real worry for Democrats is if Swanson wins the nomination, as her campaign has been awful.
Nebraska: Safe R. Ricketts feels a meh incumbent but he's not particularly unpopular and this is a Republican state. Incumbency helps too.
Nevada: Lean D. Because it's a Democratic climate, and generally a D-leaning state.
New Hampshire: Likely R. It does swing hard in waves admittedly, but Sununu remains very popular. Me thinks MT Treasurer's NH shtick has influenced you guys too much, fundamentally Sununu's position should be comparable to someone like Hogan's, and in a less Democratic state too.
New Mexico: Likely D. MLG's not a great candidate but this is a blue state, and in this climate it won't matter.
New York: Safe D. This race is getting weird (as you'd expect when Andrew Cuomo is the incumbent!), but there isn't enough of a Republican infrasturcture here to endanger Cuomo in this climate.
Ohio: Toss-up. Purple if red-tilting state, but a Democratic climate. Cordray is a good candidate, but so is DeWine. Gonna be tough to call.
Oklahoma: Lean R. The legacy of Fallin has to bite especially given special election results here. Will be close despite the Republican nature of Oklahoma and also candidate dependent. If Stitt is the nominee, I'll likely move it to toss-up.
Oregon: Likely D. Brown's approvals are pretty meh, and the Republicans did get a decent candidate, but it's been a very long time since they won the Oregon governorship. Definitely a "I'll believe it when I see it" sort of race, especially in a Democratic year.
Pennsylvania: Safe D. Although Wolf's approvals aren't terrific, I don't see a path for Wagner given he's running an awful campaign and Wolf has incumbency advantages in a Democratic climate.
Rhode Island: Lean D. Raimondo is unpopular, but
South Carolina: Lean R. The Republican primary was somewhat toxic, McMaster isn't particularly well-defined and the Dems found a good candidate here. South Carolina is a red state (and notoriously inelastic), but there is a path here, especially given the Dems came fairly close here the last time there was an open seat....in a significantly worse climate too.
South Dakota: Likely R. Open seat. A Republican state, but this is one which is typically quite elastic and the Dems have a strong candidate here. It's still a reach though, especially given Noem is known to the whole of the state.
Tennessee: Likely R. Open seat. I don't think the Dems win here, but they at least have a decent candidate, and in open governor races weird things can happen.
Texas: Safe R. Valdez isn't a bad candidate in the sense of working the Dem base to get them to win other seats, but Abbott remains popular and Texas is still red.
Vermont: Likely R. All the sudden Morning Consult has him with middling approvals. Dodgy sample? Perhaps, but something to keep your eye on, as he needs to have strong approvals to win in a state like Vermont (though it's elastic enough that Baker level approvals like he used to have would seem him win in a landslide).
Wisconsin: Toss-up. I never got why people thought Walker was this unassailable titan, or even a clear favourite. He's not popular and despite what the media thinks Wisconsin isn't a Republican state. I'm not sold on the Marist numbers yet, but I do think the Dems are marginal favourites if I had to pick. Reamins a toss-up because I don't know how good the Democratic field is.
Wyoming: Likely R. Open seat. The Dems actually have a good candidate here - and the primary for the Republicans might get toxic. It's still Wyoming though.....

[IceSpear]

On New Hampshire...these were the 2014 polls:



And the 2010 polls:



Everyone expected Lynch and Hassan to win in massive landslides (they were just as popular as Sununu is now, if not moreso), then the wave caught up with them. Sununu is favored, but he is not safe.

[Skye]

[Tender Branson]

Too early.

I will only start with Governor predictions in 2 months when all the primaries are over ...

But I guess the Dems will pick up a lot this year. Even AZ, IA and GA should become competetive.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Safe D:
CA
OR
IL
NY
NM
HI

Likely D:
CO
NV


Lean D:
PA
RI
MI
CT
ME
AZ
MN

True Toss-up:
FL
MI (moving this left if Whitmer wins the primary)
GA
AK

Lean R:
IA

Likely R:
OH
WI

Safe R:
ID
WY
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
AR
TN
AL
SC
VT
NH
MA

Hmm.....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reynolds probably wins, but AZ and GA will be competetive

[Kodak]

For fun, I'm going to take the Atlas 3-poll average method with every available poll and see if it comes closer to predicting the outcomes than any of the other election models. Here is my prediction 100 days from election day.