2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[morgieb]

Alabama - Solid R. I never like putting open seats at "safe", especially at the Gubernatorial level, but I have no idea who the Democrats could run here that would make it competitive.
Alaska - Likely I. Don't know much about Walker's popularity, but I think he's popular. If not this could be lower. A 3-way race could hurt him too.....
Arizona - Lean R. Not really sure where Ducey's popularity is at. If he's popular he'll be fine, if he's not he'll struggle. Lean R is about as solid of a prediction as any.
Arkansas - Solid R. Hutchison is popular and Arkansas hasn't really behaved like a swing state lately.
California - Likely D. Only because of the risk of a Top Two primary backfiring on the Democrats, and an open seat means there's a non-zero chance of that happening. For it to happen though a lot of things need to go right for the Republicans, such as a massive Democratic primary field, and no more than 2 strong Republicans running.
Colorado - Toss-Up/Tilt D. It's an open seat in a swingy but Dem tilting state. Hard to put it anything but a Dem-leaning toss-up until we know who the candidates are and what kind of year it is.
Connecticut - Lean D. Malloy is kinda toxic, so could easily lose if the Republicans find the right candidate. Alternatively, he could retire, where we get an open seat in a state where the Democrats generally dominate but (like most of New England) like moderate Republican govenors.
Florida - Toss-Up. It's an open seat in the quintissential swing state. Pure Toss-Up is the only way to put it, especially given both sides should have strong recruits.
Georgia - Lean R. The runoff hurts Democrats here. Would otherwise be a Toss-Up without it. Still an open seat in a state that is trending D should still get a lot of investment.
Hawaii - Solid D. Hawaii is one of the bluest states in the Union and the incumbent is a Democrat. The only state that is all but guaranteed to elect a Democratic governor in 2018.
Idaho - Solid R. No idea if Otter runs again or not, but it probably doesn't matter in Idaho.
Illinois - Lean D (pick-up). I imagine Rauner is fairly toxic in Illinois. Plus the state is generally a blue one. The most vunerable seat for the Republicans in 2018, most likely (either that or New Mexico)
Iowa - Toss-Up/Tilt R. I think Branstad retires, he may be term-limited anyway. Hard to call but Democratic stocks here aren't good, so I think Republicans have the edge unless it's a very bad year for them.
Kansas - Lean R. Yes Kansas is very Republican leaning, but Brownback is toxic here and his reputation could damage the next Republican candidate (like Jindal did in Louisiana), especially if they nominate a Tea Partier.
Maine - Toss-Up. Anything could happen here, especially since tactical voting will be less of a thing thanks to IRV. I feel like the Republicans are the least likely of the 3 parties to win here, but if the Collins for Governor rumours are true....
Maryland - Lean R. Hogan is popular so if he runs again he'll be secure despite Maryland being very Democratic. There is an outside chance he quits given his cancer, though....
Massachusetts - Likely R. Similar to Maryland in that it's a Democratic state with a popular Republican governor. The main difference is that 1. Baker doesn't have the health problems that Hogan does and 2. Massachusetts has more of a moderate Republican history than Maryland.
Michigan - Toss-Up/Tilt D. On paper this looks good for the Democrats - it's an open seat in a usually Democratic-voting state. But their bench is smaller than the Republicans, and the state trended hard right at the last federal election.....
Minnesota - Lean D. It's an open seat and the state did trend hard right at the last election, but the Republican bench here is a bit of a mess and it still has Democratic traditions....
Nebraska - Likely R. Should be secure for the Republicans, but Ricketts is unpopular. This could be a bolter if the Dems find the right candidate.
Nevada - Toss-Up. Nevada is trending in the right direction for the Democrats, but it's been a while since they've held the governor's mansion here, and 2014 hurt their bench hard.
New Hampshire - Toss-Up. Hard to know how popular Sununu is until he starts governing. So it's the default rating here.
New Jersey (2017) - Likely D (pick-up). It's a Democratic state and the Republican bench here post-Christie is a corrupt mess. If the Dems can't pick this one up they should just fold.
New Mexico - Lean D (pick-up). Martinez is term-limited and the state is usually a Democratic one. This should be a reasonably straightforward pick-up.
New York - Likely D. Probably should be solid D, but when Cuomo is your governor, nothing is straightforward. In
Ohio - Toss-Up/Tilt R. It's an open seat in a R-trending but still swingy state. Question is, do the Democrats find the right candidate.
Oklahoma - Likely R. Yes Oklahoma is very R-leaning but Fallin has been pretty toxic as governor here, and the Democrats have made some inroads in suburban areas. This could genuinely be interesting with an open seat.
Oregon - Likely D. Hard to say without Brown governing full-term, but it's been a long time since a Republican was governor here.
Pennsylvania - Lean D. Wolf isn't super popular, but isn't unpopular enough that incumbency will prove a liability. There were also rumours that he might step down to let Casey run for Governor, which probably doesn't massively effect the state of this race.
Rhode Island - Lean D. Raimondo is controversial, but Rhode Island is usually Democratic-leaning enough that she still has an incumbency advantage. New England and Republican governors, though.....
South Carolina - Lean R. This was close the last time there was an open seat, so this could be very winnable in a more Democratic-leaning climate. Might not be if the Scott/Gowdy rumours are true, though.
South Dakota - Solid R. Should be interesting, but the Republicans found a good recruit in Noem and the Dems don't have much of a history in prairie state governorships. More likely they go for the vacant house seat.
Tennessee - Solid R. On paper an open seat should give the Democrats a shot, especially with Corker keeping his Senate seat (AFAIK). But recent Democratic recruits have been such jokes it probably won't matter.
Texas - Solid R. Not sure on Abbott's popularity, but Texas is a tough nut to crack even if it might be trending D, and there's not much of a bench here for Democrats. He'll get a free pass in a year with lots of open Republican seats.
Vermont - Toss-Up. Hard to call until Scott starts governing; the state does have a history of moderate Republican governors though.
Virginia (2017) - Lean D. The state is trending D and Northam is a strong recruit. Republicans would need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to take the state.
Wisconsin - Toss-Up/Tilt D. Walker is unpopular and the state before 2016 was a D-leaning swing state. So this should be very winnable for the Democrats. But mid-terms haven't been very kind to Democrats here....
Wyoming - Solid R. Yes the Democrats did have the gubernatorial mansion here as recently as the 2000's, but the Dems really don't have a bench here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sorry, don't see FL turning blue again anytime soon, but Bill Nelson and Sherrod Brown will win reelection.

I see WI, IL, NV, MI,  NH, ME, NM,  NJ flipping for 7 Gov gain

[BL53931]

Nebraska Dems need to work like hell to find a moderate candidate acceptable to Republican voters, a lot of whom are fed up with Ricketts. If he is primaried and loses, this race is probably safe Republican.

[Person Man]

Sorry, don't see FL turning blue again anytime soon, but Bill Nelson and Sherrod Brown will win reelection.

I see WI, IL, NV, MI,  NH, ME, NM,  NJ flipping for 7 Gov gain

They can win FL if Trump is allowed to have a bad midterm. Bush didn't in 2002. In 2006, the GOP ran a sane, though disliked, candidate. 10 and 14, they only won by 1. There will be a popular senator on this time. Democrats can't be a viable party without competing in Florida.

Democrats have to pick up red states, too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not saying they shouldn't try in Florida, they should focus on the Midwest.

[Young Conservative]

I'm not saying they shouldn't try in Florida, they should focus on the Midwest.

I agree; the Midwest is a better pickup than florida. Florida hasn't HA a democrat governor in decades and they have no bench here- whatsoever, while the GOP stars of florida are lining up to compete, and there happen to be a lot.

[KingSweden]

My thoughts, feel free to criticize. I'll include thoughts on leg races too

AL: Safe R. It'll be interesting here if Strange goes for Senate rather than Gov as expected - could be a free for all on GOP side. Not that it matters. Leg obviously Safe R
AK: Lean I. I think Walker pulls it out with his quirky coalition he's built here. Goofiness ensues in legislature, very unpredictable
AR: Hutch seems popular, no issue there. Leg is beyond Safe R
AZ: Could get interesting in Mauricio's. Is the AZ Senate close enough for D gains? I think yes, though short of a flip. Ducey could be vulnerable to a Stanton run. There are some row offices young Democrats could line up to challenge, too, though many GOP row officers seem pretty moderate.
CA: Likely D, if only because of Top Two. Leg should stay supermajority, perhaps even grow.
CO: Lean D. I think Ds should be favored to take back trifecta and I'll predict them to win 1 row office
CT: Tossup if Malloy runs, Lean D if he's smart and doesn't. Maybe Himes jumps in? Dems should win a seat or two to regain breathing room in Senate
FL: Tossup/Tilt R: Only because the D bench is crap. I think Gwen Graham makes a solid recruit though and Dems could narrow GOP majorities in the legislature. Maybe 1 row office gets picked off too
GA: Lean R due to runoff. The GOP primary will be nuts. Leg could narrow, maybe Dems get 1 row office with a good recruit and flop on GOP side. Does Carter run again?
HI: utterly Safe D. Can't Rs win back a Senate seat?
ID: Safe R, obviously
IL: Lean D. Best pickup opportunity IMO. Maybe Dems can expand leg margins again too
IA: Tilt R. I expect Reynolds to be the next Governor here. Dems scrape back some seats in leg, probably not enough to flip either
KS: Tilt R. Will be interesting with Brownback so radioactive. Svaty could be a strong contender
ME: who the f knows. I doubt Collins runs. Poliquin would be a strong GOP recruit. I'll say Dems flip the legislature
MD: Tossup/Tilt D: I know Hogan is popular but I see Delaney running and winning, albeit narrowly. Dems grow leg margins
MA: Tossup/Tilt R: Mass loves it some moderate R guvnahs, and Setti Warren seems a lower tier recruit
MI: Tilt D. I think Whitmer wins narrowly. Dems retake House and narrow margins in Senate, maybe flip a row office or two
MN: Lean D. Swanson runs strong in outer state and Dems sweep row offices again. Flip at least one chamber if not both.
NE: Likely R. I know Rockets is basically Brownback north but who runs? Do Dems focus on Senate first
NH: Too early to say. This place swings like crazy.
NM: Likely D. Udall or Balderas would dominate.
NV: Likely D. Don't think GOP has anyone like Sandoval left. Calculus changes if Heller runs, though I doubt he does
NY: Likely D. Hopefully Bharara primaries Cuomo. This could be the year Democrats flip the Senate.
OH: Tossup/Tilt R. I think it'll be narrow, but Republicans win. Leg margins tighten narrowly
OK: Likely R. It'd be interesting if Boren runs, which I doubt
PA: Likely D. Think Wolf runs again and wins. Dems narrow disadvantage in legislature.
Ri: Likelu D. Raimondo wins again, though there could be a primary.
SC: Safe R without an open seat.
SD: Likely R. I think Jackley wins primary.
WI: Tossup. Does the Walker/WOW machine carry the day? Is Walker running again? He'll be the top target for Democrats. Leg depends on what happens with this lawsuit that just went down. Could see a big year here for Team D.
WY: Hahahhaa

[Virginiá]

My thoughts, feel free to criticize. I'll include thoughts on leg races too

AL: Safe R. It'll be interesting here if Strange goes for Senate rather than Gov as expected - could be a free for all on GOP side. Not that it matters. Leg obviously Safe R
AK: Lean I. I think Walker pulls it out with his quirky coalition he's built here. Goofiness ensues in legislature, very unpredictable
AR: Hutch seems popular, no issue there. Leg is beyond Safe R
AZ: Could get interesting in Mauricio's. Is the AZ Senate close enough for D gains? I think yes, though short of a flip. Ducey could be vulnerable to a Stanton run. There are some row offices young Democrats could line up to challenge, too, though many GOP row officers seem pretty moderate.
CA: Likely D, if only because of Top Two. Leg should stay supermajority, perhaps even grow.
CO: Lean D. I think Ds should be favored to take back trifecta and I'll predict them to win 1 row office
CT: Tossup if Malloy runs, Lean D if he's smart and doesn't. Maybe Himes jumps in? Dems should win a seat or two to regain breathing room in Senate
FL: Tossup/Tilt R: Only because the D bench is crap. I think Gwen Graham makes a solid recruit though and Dems could narrow GOP majorities in the legislature. Maybe 1 row office gets picked off too
GA: Lean R due to runoff. The GOP primary will be nuts. Leg could narrow, maybe Dems get 1 row office with a good recruit and flop on GOP side. Does Carter run again?
HI: utterly Safe D. Can't Rs win back a Senate seat?
ID: Safe R, obviously
IL: Lean D. Best pickup opportunity IMO. Maybe Dems can expand leg margins again too
IA: Tilt R. I expect Reynolds to be the next Governor here. Dems scrape back some seats in leg, probably not enough to flip either
KS: Tilt R. Will be interesting with Brownback so radioactive. Svaty could be a strong contender
ME: who the f knows. I doubt Collins runs. Poliquin would be a strong GOP recruit. I'll say Dems flip the legislature
MD: Tossup/Tilt D: I know Hogan is popular but I see Delaney running and winning, albeit narrowly. Dems grow leg margins
MA: Tossup/Tilt R: Mass loves it some moderate R guvnahs, and Setti Warren seems a lower tier recruit
MI: Tilt D. I think Whitmer wins narrowly. Dems retake House and narrow margins in Senate, maybe flip a row office or two
MN: Lean D. Swanson runs strong in outer state and Dems sweep row offices again. Flip at least one chamber if not both.
NE: Likely R. I know Rockets is basically Brownback north but who runs? Do Dems focus on Senate first
NH: Too early to say. This place swings like crazy.
NM: Likely D. Udall or Balderas would dominate.
NV: Likely D. Don't think GOP has anyone like Sandoval left. Calculus changes if Heller runs, though I doubt he does
NY: Likely D. Hopefully Bharara primaries Cuomo. This could be the year Democrats flip the Senate.
OH: Tossup/Tilt R. I think it'll be narrow, but Republicans win. Leg margins tighten narrowly
OK: Likely R. It'd be interesting if Boren runs, which I doubt
PA: Likely D. Think Wolf runs again and wins. Dems narrow disadvantage in legislature.
Ri: Likelu D. Raimondo wins again, though there could be a primary.
SC: Safe R without an open seat.
SD: Likely R. I think Jackley wins primary.
WI: Tossup. Does the Walker/WOW machine carry the day? Is Walker running again? He'll be the top target for Democrats. Leg depends on what happens with this lawsuit that just went down. Could see a big year here for Team D.
WY: Hahahhaa

This list seems good to me, with the exception of a few:

Maryland (Leans R): I'm not convinced Democrats can knock off an incumbent Gov who is this popular. Perhaps if they can find a way to make him more unpopular? If there is a ginormous wave, perhaps he gets swept away anyway.

Nevada (Tossup): Honestly it's hard for me to give Democrats anything better than a toss-up on this. They have had an amazing inability to win a gubernatorial race here in literally almost a generation now. I'm not saying they definitely can't because they haven't in so long, but that I'm less inclined to believe it's an automatic win, even in a wave.

I'm not too bullish on IA or OH either, but no other comments on them. Overall I do not think 2018 will be kind to Republicans for numerous reasons, so to me it's just a matter of how bad.

[KingSweden]

My thoughts, feel free to criticize. I'll include thoughts on leg races too

AL: Safe R. It'll be interesting here if Strange goes for Senate rather than Gov as expected - could be a free for all on GOP side. Not that it matters. Leg obviously Safe R
AK: Lean I. I think Walker pulls it out with his quirky coalition he's built here. Goofiness ensues in legislature, very unpredictable
AR: Hutch seems popular, no issue there. Leg is beyond Safe R
AZ: Could get interesting in Mauricio's. Is the AZ Senate close enough for D gains? I think yes, though short of a flip. Ducey could be vulnerable to a Stanton run. There are some row offices young Democrats could line up to challenge, too, though many GOP row officers seem pretty moderate.
CA: Likely D, if only because of Top Two. Leg should stay supermajority, perhaps even grow.
CO: Lean D. I think Ds should be favored to take back trifecta and I'll predict them to win 1 row office
CT: Tossup if Malloy runs, Lean D if he's smart and doesn't. Maybe Himes jumps in? Dems should win a seat or two to regain breathing room in Senate
FL: Tossup/Tilt R: Only because the D bench is crap. I think Gwen Graham makes a solid recruit though and Dems could narrow GOP majorities in the legislature. Maybe 1 row office gets picked off too
GA: Lean R due to runoff. The GOP primary will be nuts. Leg could narrow, maybe Dems get 1 row office with a good recruit and flop on GOP side. Does Carter run again?
HI: utterly Safe D. Can't Rs win back a Senate seat?
ID: Safe R, obviously
IL: Lean D. Best pickup opportunity IMO. Maybe Dems can expand leg margins again too
IA: Tilt R. I expect Reynolds to be the next Governor here. Dems scrape back some seats in leg, probably not enough to flip either
KS: Tilt R. Will be interesting with Brownback so radioactive. Svaty could be a strong contender
ME: who the f knows. I doubt Collins runs. Poliquin would be a strong GOP recruit. I'll say Dems flip the legislature
MD: Tossup/Tilt D: I know Hogan is popular but I see Delaney running and winning, albeit narrowly. Dems grow leg margins
MA: Tossup/Tilt R: Mass loves it some moderate R guvnahs, and Setti Warren seems a lower tier recruit
MI: Tilt D. I think Whitmer wins narrowly. Dems retake House and narrow margins in Senate, maybe flip a row office or two
MN: Lean D. Swanson runs strong in outer state and Dems sweep row offices again. Flip at least one chamber if not both.
NE: Likely R. I know Rockets is basically Brownback north but who runs? Do Dems focus on Senate first
NH: Too early to say. This place swings like crazy.
NM: Likely D. Udall or Balderas would dominate.
NV: Likely D. Don't think GOP has anyone like Sandoval left. Calculus changes if Heller runs, though I doubt he does
NY: Likely D. Hopefully Bharara primaries Cuomo. This could be the year Democrats flip the Senate.
OH: Tossup/Tilt R. I think it'll be narrow, but Republicans win. Leg margins tighten narrowly
OK: Likely R. It'd be interesting if Boren runs, which I doubt
PA: Likely D. Think Wolf runs again and wins. Dems narrow disadvantage in legislature.
Ri: Likelu D. Raimondo wins again, though there could be a primary.
SC: Safe R without an open seat.
SD: Likely R. I think Jackley wins primary.
WI: Tossup. Does the Walker/WOW machine carry the day? Is Walker running again? He'll be the top target for Democrats. Leg depends on what happens with this lawsuit that just went down. Could see a big year here for Team D.
WY: Hahahhaa

This list seems good to me, with the exception of a few:

Maryland (Leans R): I'm not convinced Democrats can knock off an incumbent Gov who is this popular. Perhaps if they can find a way to make him more unpopular? If there is a ginormous wave, perhaps he gets swept away anyway.

Nevada (Tossup): Honestly it's hard for me to give Democrats anything better than a toss-up on this. They have had an amazing inability to win a gubernatorial race here in literally almost a generation now. I'm not saying they definitely can't because they haven't in so long, but that I'm less inclined to believe it's an automatic win, even in a wave.

I'm not too bullish on IA or OH either, but no other comments on them. Overall I do not think 2018 will be kind to Republicans for numerous reasons, so to me it's just a matter of how bad.

Iowa is a toughie. I don't know who Democrats would run and Reynolds from what I understand has had her eye on '18 for years.

[The Other Castro]

For CT, I agree on a Toss-Up rating if Malloy runs, but that doesn't seem likely to me (with a Lean D if he doesn't run). Based on the conversations I've had with some state party people (which occurred before Trump won so plans may have shifted), they don't want Malloy to run again and have talked about a range of people from Kevin Lembo to George Jepsen to Dan Drew.

[KingSweden]

For CT, I agree on a Toss-Up rating if Malloy runs, but that doesn't seem likely to me (with a Lean D if he doesn't run). Based on the conversations I've had with some state party people (which occurred before Trump won so plans may have shifted), they don't want Malloy to run again and have talked about a range of people from Kevin Lembo to George Jepsen to Dan Drew.

Who would be strongest in your opinion?

[The Other Castro]

For CT, I agree on a Toss-Up rating if Malloy runs, but that doesn't seem likely to me (with a Lean D if he doesn't run). Based on the conversations I've had with some state party people (which occurred before Trump won so plans may have shifted), they don't want Malloy to run again and have talked about a range of people from Kevin Lembo to George Jepsen to Dan Drew.

Who would be strongest in your opinion?

Hmm, Jepsen maybe, though I like Lembo personally (Drew is good as well though he might come off as too young). I think Lembo is much more likely to run than Jepsen though, so I guess him. I haven't heard too much about Looney, but he could be a formidable challenger in a primary.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Safe R- AR, ID, MA, TN, TX, SD*, WY
Likely R- AL, MD, NE, OK, SC
Leans R- AZ, GA, KS, IA
Tilts R- IL, NH, OH, VA, VT
Pure Tossup- CO, FL, MN, NV, RI, WI
Tilts D- CT, MI
Leans D- ME, NJ, NM, PA
Likely D- AK***, CA, NY
Safe D
OR
*Providing Noem is the nominee, which seems likely at this point.
**As long as Malloy doesn't run. If he does, Pure Tossup. But my guess is he won't, cause most governors do retire after 2 terms even if not written in stone.
***I am counting AK as democratic.

[KingSweden]

Safe R- AR, ID, MA, TN, TX, SD*, WY
Likely R- AL, MD, NE, OK, SC
Leans R- AZ, GA, KS, IA
Tilts R- IL, NH, OH, VA, VT
Pure Tossup- CO, FL, MN, NV, RI, WI
Tilts D- CT, MI
Leans D- ME, NJ, NM, PA
Likely D- AK***, CA, NY
Safe D
OR
*Providing Noem is the nominee, which seems likely at this point.
**As long as Malloy doesn't run. If he does, Pure Tossup. But my guess is he won't, cause most governors do retire after 2 terms even if not written in stone.
***I am counting AK as democratic.

Curious why you have IL as Tilt R

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Safe R- AR, ID, MA, TN, TX, SD*, WY
Likely R- AL, MD, NE, OK, SC
Leans R- AZ, GA, KS, IA
Tilts R- IL, NH, OH, VA, VT
Pure Tossup- CO, FL, MN, NV, RI, WI
Tilts D- CT, MI
Leans D- ME, NJ, NM, PA
Likely D- AK***, CA, NY
Safe D
OR
*Providing Noem is the nominee, which seems likely at this point.
**As long as Malloy doesn't run. If he does, Pure Tossup. But my guess is he won't, cause most governors do retire after 2 terms even if not written in stone.
***I am counting AK as democratic.

Curious why you have IL as Tilt R

I probably should put it as toss up because he is in trouble, but he is an incumbent and beating incumbents is not easy. And democrats need to have a fresh face, because midterm Illinois voters do not like establishment dems like Madigan.

[Young Conservative]

Tom wolf is ery unpopular. Why is everyone marking him safe?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tom wolf is ery unpopular. Why is everyone marking him safe?

I marked him as Lean, so did progress96. Lean /=/ Safe.

[Xing]

Tom wolf is ery unpopular. Why is everyone marking him safe?

I also made PA only Lean D. Plenty of unpopular Republican Governors won re-election in 2014, so I don't see why Wolf couldn't in 2018 (he's not at Corbett levels of unpopularity, at least not yet.)

[publicunofficial]

Tom wolf is ery unpopular. Why is everyone marking him safe?

Except in cases where Governor's had attempted to cover up sexual abuse scandals at the state university, Pennsylvania likes re-electing it's Governors. And Wolf is unpopular, but "deeply" is a stretch.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

chance of a democratic win (counting bill walker as a dem)

ca 90%
co 90%
hi 90%
nm 90%
ny 90%
or 90%
me 75%
ak 70%
ri 70%
ct 65%
mn 65%
pa 65%
il 60%
nh 60%
wi 60%
mi 55%
nv 55%
az 50%
fl 50%
vt 40%
ks 35%
ga 30%
oh 30%
md 25%
sc 25%
ia 20%
ma 15%
tx 15%
al 10%
ar 10%
id 10%
ne 10%
ok 10%
sd 10%
tn 10%
wy 10%

[smoltchanov]

^ You forgot Tennessee, Texas, Oregon and Vermont.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

^ You forgot Tennessee, Texas, Oregon and Vermont.

ah thanks. they weren't on the other list above

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all the ratings for 2018 races now being present in my ratings document, I have a few changes to announce.

Old Ratings:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

New Ratings:

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (4): CA, NY, CT, RI
Lean D (7): CO, MN, PA, MI (D+1), ME (D+2), IL (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (5) : GA, MD, VT, AZ, KS
Likely R (5): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

Changes:

RI: Safe D to Likely D
SD: Safe R to Likely R
OK: Safe R to Likely R
KS: Likely R to Lean R

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving AZ from Lean R to Likely R due to the weak democratic field:

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (4): CA, NY, CT, RI
Lean D (7): CO, MN, PA, MI (D+1), ME (D+2), IL (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, KS
Likely R (6): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Heisenberg]