2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Blackacre]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Okay. Okay okay okay.

First of all, I don't have Iowa as more Democratic than Wisconsin. I have them at the same rating: Tilts D. Both of them are more likely than not to elect a Democratic governor. Both are less likely than Michigan to do the same, however. Actually, if you read my analysis I said that Wisconsin is somewhere between Iowa and Michigan, which means that, gun to my head, I do believe Wisconsin is more likely to go D than Iowa, mainly on account of the strength of Evers as a candidate.

Second, I don't buy the notion that Iowa is a redder state. It's more elastic. It went for Trump harder, sure, but both states voted for Obama twice, and while Wisconsin had some strong special elections, Iowa has had an even larger swing in its direction in the special elections. Take a look, it's insane! That's basically the sole reason I'm giving Ds an advantage in Iowa, because of how much the electorate snapped to the Ds in special elections. It happened in Wisconsin too, but to a lesser extent. There is ABSOLUTELY a blue wave in Iowa right now, it's not exactly Florida or Connecticut in that regard.

As to your argument about Iowa having 2 Republican senators, well, both states had GOP wins in 2010 and 2014. Wisconsin's D senator is a product of luck more than anything else; it's the state that had a senate election in the D-friendly 2012.

My point is, calm down. If you have Iowa as likely r and Wisconsin as likely d, that's your opinion. I'm sharing mine. We can discuss, debate, and compare/contrast, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't go for the throat next time

I'm very sorry. I did come off as a little harsh. My apologies. I realized that I made a mistake once Zaybay clarified, and now that you've clarified your stance, it makes a lot more sense now.

I wasn't trying to go down your throat, I just worded it in a way in which it did seem that way. I'm a nice person, I promise. You can always message me anytime.

I really appreciate that! I'm sorry we had to start off on the wrong foot like this, but hey, first impressions aren't everything, right? Feel free to message me anytime as well

[Scottholes 2.0]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Okay. Okay okay okay.

First of all, I don't have Iowa as more Democratic than Wisconsin. I have them at the same rating: Tilts D. Both of them are more likely than not to elect a Democratic governor. Both are less likely than Michigan to do the same, however. Actually, if you read my analysis I said that Wisconsin is somewhere between Iowa and Michigan, which means that, gun to my head, I do believe Wisconsin is more likely to go D than Iowa, mainly on account of the strength of Evers as a candidate.

Second, I don't buy the notion that Iowa is a redder state. It's more elastic. It went for Trump harder, sure, but both states voted for Obama twice, and while Wisconsin had some strong special elections, Iowa has had an even larger swing in its direction in the special elections. Take a look, it's insane! That's basically the sole reason I'm giving Ds an advantage in Iowa, because of how much the electorate snapped to the Ds in special elections. It happened in Wisconsin too, but to a lesser extent. There is ABSOLUTELY a blue wave in Iowa right now, it's not exactly Florida or Connecticut in that regard.

As to your argument about Iowa having 2 Republican senators, well, both states had GOP wins in 2010 and 2014. Wisconsin's D senator is a product of luck more than anything else; it's the state that had a senate election in the D-friendly 2012.

My point is, calm down. If you have Iowa as likely r and Wisconsin as likely d, that's your opinion. I'm sharing mine. We can discuss, debate, and compare/contrast, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't go for the throat next time

I'm very sorry. I did come off as a little harsh. My apologies. I realized that I made a mistake once Zaybay clarified, and now that you've clarified your stance, it makes a lot more sense now.

I wasn't trying to go down your throat, I just worded it in a way in which it did seem that way. I'm a nice person, I promise. You can always message me anytime.

I really appreciate that! I'm sorry we had to start off on the wrong foot like this, but hey, first impressions aren't everything, right? Feel free to message me anytime as well

Yup, it's all good

[wesmoorenerd]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Okay. Okay okay okay.

First of all, I don't have Iowa as more Democratic than Wisconsin. I have them at the same rating: Tilts D. Both of them are more likely than not to elect a Democratic governor. Both are less likely than Michigan to do the same, however. Actually, if you read my analysis I said that Wisconsin is somewhere between Iowa and Michigan, which means that, gun to my head, I do believe Wisconsin is more likely to go D than Iowa, mainly on account of the strength of Evers as a candidate.

Second, I don't buy the notion that Iowa is a redder state. It's more elastic. It went for Trump harder, sure, but both states voted for Obama twice, and while Wisconsin had some strong special elections, Iowa has had an even larger swing in its direction in the special elections. Take a look, it's insane! That's basically the sole reason I'm giving Ds an advantage in Iowa, because of how much the electorate snapped to the Ds in special elections. It happened in Wisconsin too, but to a lesser extent. There is ABSOLUTELY a blue wave in Iowa right now, it's not exactly Florida or Connecticut in that regard.

As to your argument about Iowa having 2 Republican senators, well, both states had GOP wins in 2010 and 2014. Wisconsin's D senator is a product of luck more than anything else; it's the state that had a senate election in the D-friendly 2012.

My point is, calm down. If you have Iowa as likely r and Wisconsin as likely d, that's your opinion. I'm sharing mine. We can discuss, debate, and compare/contrast, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't go for the throat next time

I'm very sorry. I did come off as a little harsh. My apologies. I realized that I made a mistake once Zaybay clarified, and now that you've clarified your stance, it makes a lot more sense now.

I wasn't trying to go down your throat, I just worded it in a way in which it did seem that way. I'm a nice person, I promise. You can always message me anytime.

I really appreciate that! I'm sorry we had to start off on the wrong foot like this, but hey, first impressions aren't everything, right? Feel free to message me anytime as well

Yup, it's all good

Atlas kindness is so heartwarming

[DaWN]

Safe D: California, New York, Pennsylvania
Likely D: Colorado, Minnesota
Lean D: Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Rhode Island
Tossup: Alaska, Florida, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin
Lean R: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, Kansas
Likely R: Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont
Safe R: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming

CHANGE
Florida: Tossup -> Lean R

In light of the new PPP poll, this appears to have been too hasty a change. It goes back to Tossup for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is Tilt D

[mcmikk]

Updated rankings(as of 8/30/2018):



Changes:

AZ: Lean R --> Tossup
KS: Lean R --> Tossup
OK: Likely R --> Lean R
GA: Lean R --> Tossup
OR: Safe D --> Likely D
ME: Lean D --> Tossup

[Orser67]

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- RI, OR, IL, PA, NM
Likely D- CT, MN, MI, CO
Lean D- NV, FL, WI, OH, ME
Toss-Up- AZ, IA, KS
Lean R- OK, MD, NH, GA, AK
Likely R- SC, TN, MA, VT
Very Likely R- SD, TX, AL
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- RI, OR, IL, PA, NM
Likely D- CT, MN, MI, CO
Lean D- NV, FL, WI, OH, ME
Toss-Up- AZ, IA, KS, OK
Lean R- NH, GA
Likely R- SC, TN, MD, AK
Very Likely R- SD, TX, AL, VT, MA
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR

[°Leprechaun]

[Blackacre]

I'm sorry, I can't leave this thread alone!! But I figure I could take a deeper dive into how I come to the conclusions that I do, and just for fun, mix a few things around and see what we get

Basically, there are 5 factors that determine how I rate a race:

• A state's partisan lean in statewide elections, which is different from a Presidential vote.
• The broader political environment in the state. Or in other words: how hard is the Blue Wave hitting there?
• What's the sitting governor up to? Is it an open seat or is there an incumbent running, and if the latter, is the incumbent running? If the incumbent isn't running, there is no additional info for this category that the above point doesn't already cover.
• What's the difference in quality between the candidates?
• What do the polls say? Especially at this point in the cycle, this doesn't count as much as the other categories. It serves more as a recalibration, questioning how much the above four factors weigh into the result.

For an example of this multi-step process in action, let's take a look at two races that have the same rating (Tossup) but different factors under the hood: Rhode Island and Oklahoma. Let's do Rhode Island first.

• Rhode Island is super elastic and arguably GOP-leaning in gubernatorial races. 2014 was the first time RI voters elected a Democratic Governor since 1994, and if you discount Sundlun because he was elected after his GOP predecessor proved insanely corrupt, the freshly broken streak goes back to 1984. Then again, the streak WAS just broken -- in 2014 of all years. No advantage.
• There was one special election in Rhode Island that I could find. Not strong enough of a data point, so we're using the national political environment, which is very solid for Democrats. Moderate Democratic advantage.
• The incumbent Democratic governor is running for re-election, giving Dems an incumbency advantage. However, that's offset by her middling and even slightly negative approvals. 44/46 is pretty bad. This is actually my only tossup with an incumbent on the ticket, but Raimondo is not exactly strong. Slight Republican advantage.
• Assuming Allan Fung wins the chance for a rematch, this one is tricky. He lost to Raimondo before, but I've heard from a lot of people that he's actually pretty decent, if nothing outstanding. Raimondo... we've gone over her already. Slight Republican advantage.
• The last poll was... when, exactly? No advantage.

Add that all together and you have two factors that slightly work in the GOP's favor and one that works more so in the Democrats' favor. Overall, it's a tossup. Now let's look at Oklahoma.

• Oklahoma has gone back and forth between Democratic and Republican governors in the past... but let's not kid ourselves, this is an extremely red state. Fallin won by >20 points and almost 15 points in her two victories, and the Dem win in 2002 was a fluke based on conservative vote splitting. This is one of the most Republican states in the union, and it shows. Overwhelming Republican Advantage
• Special elections have been BRUTAL for Republicans in Oklahoma, with a 32 point average leftward swing over 8 specials. Gov. Fallin is also very unpopular, there were a lot of corruption scandals that caused those specials in the first place, and there were teacher protests. The Blue Wave is hitting Oklahoma HARD. Strong Democratic Advantage.
• The incumbent is not on the ballot. Fallin's unpopularity is accounted for above. No Advantage.
• Edmonson was hyped well before any special elections or protests. He's apparently amazing. Stitt is also seen as a really bad choice for the Oklahoma GOP. About as big a differential as you could get without major scandals. Strong Democratic Advantage.
• There was one poll, and it showed a race within 1 point. No Advantage.

With Oklahoma, almost everything working here is working strongly to the Democrats' advantage. However, the state's partisan lean is so strong that it cancels out with everything else, leaving us with a tossup. The reason why I listed this though is to show something interesting: you could exchange some of these variables and get radically different ratings for the two states. For instance, switch the special election performances between Rhode Island and Oklahoma, and they'd become Likely D and Likely R, respectively, though maybe you could make the case that they'd be Leans instead.

And so this calculus goes into every state. Georgia has seen dour results for Democrats in special elections, but Democrats put up a good fight in 2014 and it trended D in 2012 and 2016, plus the seat is open and Abrams is a much stronger candidate than Kemp, adding up to a Tilts D race. Alaska has been known to be purple and weird in state races and the national environment is strong, but Walker's presence inherently saps Begich's candidate quality and it's still a red state, so it Tilts R here. And Ohio... oh man, Ohio. The national environment is strong for Democrats, but Ohio goes in with a bit of a red tinge at the state and federal level. The seat is open and candidate quality is strong on both ends. Without any recent polling to work with, this is as pure a tossup as we can get.

Well, that's all. Hopefully somebody enjoyed this nonsense of mine xD

[Atlas Force]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Tossup
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Likely D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Lean R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Lean R
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Tossup
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Likely R
Tennessee - Lean R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[libertpaulian]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Tossup
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanium D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Likely R
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Tossup
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Tilt D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Likely R
Tennessee - Lean R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Tilt D
Wyoming - Safe R

[Blackacre]

Alright, another update!

First up is a pair of states, New Hampshire and Maine. I was way too bullish on both states, and I realized this mistake by looking at the states through the four part examination above. New Hampshire still has a popular Republican Governor, but look at the special elections there. There’s been a lot, and they all show the blue wave is hitting it pretty hard. So Sununu gets downgraded to Leans Republican. Meanwhile in Maine, while the medicaid expansion vote indicates a promising national environment, even when averaged with the only other special, which was less positive for Dems, it remains a very strange and independent-friendly state and there isn’t IRV in state races yet. Hence, it goes from Likely Democratic to Lean, within the competitive window.

I have another adjustment to make in Connecticut, but for a different reason. There’s been lots of quality polls (read: not Gravis) in the state, and they’re showing Lamont with a double-digit lead. That’s enough for me to move the state to Likely Democratic, out of the Leans window. The GOP seems to have really blown this opportunity. Now if only they did the same in Massachusetts...

Finally, Massachusetts until now was in the “potentially might later become competitive” category of the Safe Republican rating. Now that Baker has defeated Lively, the only condition for this race to leave the Safe R rating is gone.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, CT, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, ME

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
NH, TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (4)
MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (7)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA ID, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 6 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.5, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.6, R-8.0
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+16, R-15
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

The Democrats’ reasonable ceiling would now double their number of Governors. That’s… certainly something! The GOP did avert a massive own-goal in Massachusetts, however.

[Thomas D]

[Roll Roons]

AL - Safe R
AR - Safe R
AK - Lean R
AZ - Tossup
CA - Safe D
CO - Lean D
CT - Lean D
FL - Tossup
GA - Tossup
HI - Safe D
IA - Tossup
ID - Safe R
IL - Likely D (pains me to say that)
KS - Tossup
ME - Tossup
MA - Safe R
MD - Likely R
MI - Lean D
MN - Lean D
NE - Safe R
NH - Likely R
NM - Likely D
NV - Tossup
NY - Safe D
OH - Tossup
OK - Lean R
OR - Lean D
PA - Likely D
RI - Lean D
SC - Likely R
SD - Likely R
TN - Likely R
TX - Safe R
VT - Likely R
WI - Tossup
WY - Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, IL, KS, ME, MI, MN, NV, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI and WI
Tossup GA & OH and OK
Tilt R AL, AK, AR, ID, IA, MD, MA, NE, NH, SC, SD, TN, TX, VT & WY

[Kodak]

Here's what the polls are saying 60 days from election day. Note the abundance of ties.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This will be the most exciting races to watch, KS Gov and TX Sen hoping Dem

[MillennialModerate]

The governors race in Massachusetts is a prime example of why I think our position as the bluest state is overstated. In a Dem year, our Gov is probably the Safest GOV in the country. Yes Baker is a good Governor and yes he is a Moderate but still.... if this state was as blue and partisan as it’s made out to be then this would be at least mildly competitive - right?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The governors race in Massachusetts is a prime example of why I think our position as the bluest state is overstated. In a Dem year, our Gov is probably the Safest GOV in the country. Yes Baker is a good Governor and yes he is a Moderate but still.... if this state was as blue and partisan as it’s made out to be then this would be at least mildly competitive - right?

There aren't many minorities in the NE and MA is a catholic dominated State, and the state does have Romneycare named after Baker's predecessor. Baker was fortunate to run in 2014 against Coakley.

[adrac]

1. New Mexico

2. Illinois

3. Michigan
4. Alaska
5. Nevada

6. Maine
7. Wisconsin
8. Florida

9. Ohio
10. Georgia
11. Kansas
12. Rhode Island
13. Iowa

[Lognog]

-snip-

Scenario 8 + SD is pretty much the limit. I don't see any way the Dems pick up Nebraska or Vermont this year, sadly.

Scenario 5 is probably the most likely scenario, perhaps with GA and IA flipping as well.

Scenario 3 is probably a realistic minimum.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Based on polling Max 10 seats 27D-23R

[junior chįmp]

My current prediction:



With Tossups:

[Scottholes 2.0]

My current prediction:



With Tossups:

Predictions look good, except for a couple states: I'm a little skeptical about Ohio and Iowa. Just my opinion and I'm probably in the minority.