2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is getting ridiculous for the GOP, they are now losing in Iowa. Tsunami Time😀

[DaWN]

Safe D: California, New York, Pennsylvania
Likely D: Colorado, Minnesota
Lean D: Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island
Tossup: Alaska, Florida, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin
Lean R: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, Kansas
Likely R: Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont
Safe R: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming

CHANGE
Michigan: Lean D -> Likely D
New Mexico: Lean D -> Likely D

And with a complimentary map

[junior chįmp]

Predictions look good, except for a couple states: I'm a little skeptical about Ohio and Iowa. Just my opinion and I'm probably in the minority.

Part of the reasoning for my predictions is number of state  legislature seats being contested by Democrats this year. There is a record number in Ohio and Iowa and the most nationally in almost 40 years. The last time Democrats contested this many state legislature seats....they ended up holding/winning 34 governorships

[Badger]

Spot-on. If I had to make a change, because Atlas, I'd shift Michigan to likely d.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

272 Friewal again

[Xing]

272 Friewal again

... Did OC just become self-aware!?

[IceSpear]

272 Friewal again

... Did OC just become self-aware!?

There have been a few signs of self awareness in the past too, though they're usually spaced apart by months and/or years. I think he wants a sleuth to follow the breadcrumbs and figure out the truth, but it's beyond my paygrade.

OC may be the best psyop and/or troll in the history of the internet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

272 Friewal again

... Did OC just become self-aware!?

There have been a few signs of self awareness in the past too, though they're usually spaced apart by months and/or years. I think he wants a sleuth to follow the breadcrumbs and figure out the truth, but it's beyond my paygrade.

OC may be the best psyop and/or troll in the history of the internet.

Come now, my post are reasoned, more so than the GOPers who had WI as Lean R for many months now. And if Trump loses Iowa and WI its over, Dems don't even have to win the south. That's what my map is exhibiting

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MI moves from Lean D to Likely D because of polling, FL moves from Toss-Up to Lean D because of polling and my desire to trigger Atlas right now, and NH moves from Lean R to Toss-Up because of the outcome of the D primary.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA, MI (D+3)
Lean D (4): CO, ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (7) : GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D takeover ME, MI, IL, WI, & Iowa
Competetive NH, MD, NV
Tilt R FL, OH, GA, VT

Revert back to 272 blue wall

[Blackacre]

Last post-primary update! Not waiting at all because NY is Safe D no matter whether Cuomo or Nixon takes the W. So sit back, because we have a doozy coming up. (Rhode Island remains a tossup)

First, a pair of states leave the Leans Window on either side: Michigan and Tennessee. This is due to the frontrunner on each side pulling away in the polls. Marist could be an outlier on the TN end of things but honestly my priors have the state straddling the line between Lean and Likely so Marist is enough to shift that rating. And Michigan is frankly almost entirely gone for the GOP.

Second, Nevada moves from Tilts Democratic to Leans. Polling will never be reliable in Nevada this cycle, Laxalt is too far to the right for the state, and Sisolak is buoyed by Rosen in the Senate race.

It will be joined by Florida, something I’m saying with a mouthful of crow. All the energy in this race is with Gillum, all of the gaffes are with DeSantis, and while quality polling is sparse, it does show Gillum with a decent lead. This is a Leans Democratic race.

Finally, I’m removing the “might be competitive in the future” clause entirely from the Safe ratings. Now that primary season is over, Safe is Safe. With that, some of the Safe ratings I had previously no longer belong there without that caveat. There were three states that had it: Pennsylvania, Idaho, and Vermont. PA can stay where it is due to the overwhelming polling advantage he has and the strength of the national environment in the state. However, Vermont moves down to Likely due to a clause that allows the legislature to choose the Governor if no majority is reached on election day, which gives Phil Scott a potential lose condition. As for Idaho, there’s enough uncertainty in that race for me to be uncomfortable giving it a perfectly certain rating, so down to Likely it goes as well.

edit: Holy Stitt, I forgot to look at any new polls! That Fox News poll showing Ducey with a clear lead is enough for me to move Arizona from Tossup to Leans Republican.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CO, CT, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, ME, NV, FL

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
GA, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
RI, OH, KS, OK

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (7)
MD, SD, SC, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.2
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.7, R-8.1
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.2, R-8.6
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+1, R+0
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

Because the Safe rating is now absolute, I have included the Absolute Ceilings for each party for the lulz. Notably, the Reasonable Republican Ceiling does not include a net pickup for the party. We also have a situation where, for the first time in any of my rankings ever, the Leans-only formula is better for Republicans than the pure Uncorrelated formula.

In addition, now that 538’s Senate model is up, I will be retiring my Senate ratings. They’re incredibly outdated by now anyway, and I wish to focus entirely on 2018’s Gubernatorial contests.

[Zaybay]

Finally, I’m removing the “might be competitive in the future” clause entirely from the Safe ratings. Now that primary season is over, Safe is Safe. With that, some of the Safe ratings I had previously no longer belong there without that caveat. There were three states that had it: Pennsylvania, Idaho, and Vermont. PA can stay where it is due to the overwhelming polling advantage he has and the strength of the national environment in the state. However, Vermont moves down to Likely due to a clause that allows the legislature to choose the Governor if no majority is reached on election day, which gives Phil Scott a potential lose condition. As for Idaho, there’s enough uncertainty in that race for me to be uncomfortable giving it a perfectly certain rating, so down to Likely it goes as well.

That is seriously a really dumb law.

[Alabama_Indy10]

MI moves from Lean D to Likely D because of polling, FL moves from Toss-Up to Lean D because of polling and my desire to trigger Atlas right now, and NH moves from Lean R to Toss-Up because of the outcome of the D primary.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA, MI (D+3)
Lean D (4): CO, ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (7) : GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

Sununu hasn't trailed in a single poll..

[Zaybay]

MI moves from Lean D to Likely D because of polling, FL moves from Toss-Up to Lean D because of polling and my desire to trigger Atlas right now, and NH moves from Lean R to Toss-Up because of the outcome of the D primary.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA, MI (D+3)
Lean D (4): CO, ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (7) : GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

Sununu hasn't trailed in a single poll..

your right, instead, he has declined 15 points from June to August. And, unlike in MA, he doesnt have the popularity to survive. Also, the D turnout was really crazy in NH.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MI moves from Lean D to Likely D because of polling, FL moves from Toss-Up to Lean D because of polling and my desire to trigger Atlas right now, and NH moves from Lean R to Toss-Up because of the outcome of the D primary.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA, MI (D+3)
Lean D (4): CO, ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (7) : GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

Sununu hasn't trailed in a single poll..

your right, instead, he has declined 15 points from June to August. And, unlike in MA, he doesnt have the popularity to survive. Also, the D turnout was really crazy in NH.

Plus, NH has a well known pro-woman bias.

[Xing]

[Zaybay]

Its been a long time since I posted my gubernatorial ratings, and its been so long, so I will start from scratch.

These are my ratings, 9/13/18

I will be using 270, as its easier to see lean, likely and Solid.

There will be no tilts in this map.

With tossups:


Without tossups(gun to my head):



I will update these as more polls come out and as we get closer to election day.

[Hatchet]

My Predictions -

Safe R: MD, NH, AL, SD, SC, AR, MA, NE
Likely R: ID,  TX, VT, KS, AZ, TN
Lean R: OH, IA, WI, NV, FL
Tossup: ME, MN
Lean D: OR, MI
Likely D: IL
Safe D: CA

Conclusion: I guarentee you that polls will show Walker and Reynolds leading in Wisconsin and Iowa. The Democrats are over-optimistic they're going to win WI -  state that voted for a GOP governor three times by a landslide. Guess what? He ain't beatable! As for Iowa, that state is done for Dems.

A red tsunami is looming!

[mcmikk]

My Predictions -

Safe R: MD, NH, AL, SD, SC, AR, MA, NE
Likely R: ID,  TX, VT, KS, AZ, TN
Lean R: OH, IA, WI, NV, FL
Tossup: ME, MN
Lean D: OR, MI
Likely D: IL
Safe D: CA

Conclusion: I guarentee you that polls will show Walker and Reynolds leading in Wisconsin and Iowa. The Democrats are over-optimistic they're going to win WI -  state that voted for a GOP governor three times by a landslide. Guess what? He ain't beatable! As for Iowa, that state is done for Dems.

A red tsunami is looming!

Wait, was hofoid banned?

[Scottholes 2.0]

My Predictions -

Safe R: MD, NH, AL, SD, SC, AR, MA, NE
Likely R: ID,  TX, VT, KS, AZ, TN
Lean R: OH, IA, WI, NV, FL
Tossup: ME, MN
Lean D: OR, MI
Likely D: IL
Safe D: CA

Conclusion: I guarentee you that polls will show Walker and Reynolds leading in Wisconsin and Iowa. The Democrats are over-optimistic they're going to win WI -  state that voted for a GOP governor three times by a landslide. Guess what? He ain't beatable! As for Iowa, that state is done for Dems.

A red tsunami is looming!

You've got some valid points, but, troll, much?

[Blackacre]

It's time to talk about Oregon. Initially I was bearish on Kate Brown because of polling that showed her tied or even behind her Republican opponent. However, two things have happened that caused me to change my mind. First, I made a deliberate effort to banish all junk polls (everything rated C+ -- the rating of lolgravis -- and below on 538) from my consideration, which removed everything in Oregon except a 17 point lead Brown had in January. But now a credible poll has just come out showing Brown up by 10. As such, Oregon exits the Leans window.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (7)
MN, CO, CT, OR, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
ME, NV, FL

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
GA, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
RI, OH, KS, OK

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (7)
MD, SD, SC, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.0, R-8.4
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.0, R-8.4
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.2, R-8.6
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+2, R+1
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

Leans-Only and Uncorrelated are aligned once again, and the Reasonable Republican Ceiling has gotten a little worse for the GOP. It's actually not that much worse for Dems than some of the actual predictions I've seen, so...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[😥]

New ratings:

[Kodak]

Updated polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]