2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Skunk]

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, NE, TN, TX, VT, WY
Likely R: AK, AZ, MD, NH, SC, SD
Lean R: OK
Tossup: GA, IA, KS, ME, NV, OH
Lean D: FL, RI, WI
Likely D: CO, CT, IL, MI, MN, NM, OR
Safe D: CA, HI, NY, PA

If I had to press the tossups, Ds win KS, ME, NV, and OH. Rs win GA and IA. Likely result will be between D+5 - D+11.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win Iowa

[Kodak]

Updated polls. New Hampshire and Arizona are slowly swapping places.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mills and Molly Kelly should be stronger due to Collins vote to affirm Kavanaugh

[Scottholes 2.0]

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, NE, TX, WY
Likely R: KY (19), MD, NH, SC, SD, TN, VT
Lean R: AK, AZ, OK
Tossup: GA, IA, KS, ME, MS (19), OH, WI
Lean D: CT, FL, NV, RI
Likely D: CO, IL, LA (19), MI, MN, PA, OR, NM
Safe D: CA, HI, NY

How do you have Wisconsin as a tossup but Florida as 'Lean D' when Evers' RCP average in WI is actually higher than Gillum's? Florida is definitety a lean D race, but so is Wisconsin.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Safe D (6): OR, HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (6): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO
Lean D (3): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (5): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA
Likely R (7): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[libertpaulian]

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, NE, TX, WY
Likely R: AZ, MD, NH, SC, SD, TN, VT
Lean R: AK
Tossup: GA, IA, KS, OH, OK
Lean D: FL, RI, WI, ME, NV
Likely D: CO, CT, MI, MN, NM, OR
Safe D: CA, HI, NY, PA, IL

[IceSpear]

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, NE, TX, WY
Likely R: AZ, MD, NH, SC, SD, TN, VT
Lean R: AK
Tossup: GA, IA, KS, OH, OK
Lean D: FL, RI, WI, ME, NV
Likely D: CO, CT, MI, MN, NM, OR
Safe D: CA, HI, NY, PA, IL

NH seems more competitive than all the others in the likely R column. Also, how come you have OK as a toss up? Stitt has led in every recent poll and is in a deep red state. His lead is bigger than Gillum's who is in a purple state.

[MT Treasurer]

NH seems more competitive than all the others in the likely R column.

Shhh, he thinks NH is an elastic libertarian independent moderate Republican swing state at heart.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D takeover FL, GA, IL, KS, ME, MI, NV, WI
Tossup OH, NH, VT if Scott get less than 50, SD
Tilt R AK, AZ, TN, OK

[libertpaulian]

NH seems more competitive than all the others in the likely R column.

Shhh, he thinks NH is an elastic libertarian independent moderate Republican swing state at heart.

Maybe because Sununu is the right candidate at the right time for the state?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point I consider NH, OH and VT as tossups

[DaWN]

CHANGES
Alaska: Tossup -> Likely R
It seems Walker probably would have lost anyway, but Begich has pretty much finished this one.
Arizona: Lean R -> Likely R
Apparently appointing a new Senator can win you an election. Who knew?
Connecticut: Lean D -> Likely D
I was definitely being too harsh on Lamont. Looking pretty likely he'll win by a comfortable but not spectacular margin.
Illinois: Lean D -> Likely D
Pritzker is still an appalling candidate, but it seems he's finally getting above the low 40s in polls. I imagine this'll probably be a pretty easy R gain in 2022 regardless of who's in the White House.
Maryland: Lean R -> Likely R
See Connecticut but reverse the parties. Pretty pathetic Dems haven't made this one competitive.
South Dakota: Likely R -> Lean R
Out of a gut feeling more than anything else. Pretty weird Sutton could win while Heitkamp loses (although I don't think it's all that likely)

[DabbingSanta]

October 9th, 2018 prediction:

Current rankings:

Strong R: ID, WY. NE, TX, AR, TN, AL, SC, VT, MA
Lean R: AK, AZ, MD
Tossup: NV, SD, KS, OK, IA, WI, OH, GA, FL, ME
Lean D: OR, CO, NM, MN, MI, CT, RI
Strong D: CA, IL, PA, NY

Changes from last week:

GOVERNOR:
Connecticut    Tossup      ->      Lean D
Illinois      Lean D      ->      Strong D
Pennsylvania   Lean D      ->      Strong D
Tennessee      Lean R      ->      Solid R
Oregon      Tossup      ->      Lean D

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, NE, TX, WY
Likely R: KY (19), MD, NH, SC, SD, TN, VT
Lean R: AK, AZ, OK
Tossup: GA, IA, KS, ME, MS (19), OH, WI
Lean D: CT, FL, NV, RI
Likely D: CO, IL, LA (19), MI, MN, PA, OR, NM
Safe D: CA, HI, NY

How do you have Wisconsin as a tossup but Florida as 'Lean D' when Evers' RCP average in WI is actually higher than Gillum's? Florida is definitety a lean D race, but so is Wisconsin.

Good catch. Walker is an incumbent so I'm more hesitant to put him at a disadvantage, but upon further consideration I've decided to shift it to Lean D.

Other changes:
AK Lean R --> Likely R
AZ Lean R --> Likely R
PA Likely D --> Safe D

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, NE, TX, WY
Likely R: AK, AZ, KY (19), MD, NH, SC, SD, TN, VT
Lean R: OK
Tossup: GA, IA, KS, ME, MS (19), OH,
Lean D: CT, FL, NV, RI, WI
Likely D: CO, IL, LA (19), MI, MN, OR, NM
Safe D: CA, HI, NY, PA,

[ElectionsGuy]

CO: Lean D --> Likely D
MN: Lean D --> Likely D
NV: Lean D --> Toss-Up (tilt D)
OK: Lean R --> Likely R
RI: Lean D --> Likely D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV=Lean R 5/7 polls show Laxalt with lead

[Thomas D]

[Kodak]

Updated polls. Aside from Nevada, I think the final results will look something like this.

[adrac]

1. New Mexico
2. Illinois

3. Alaska
4. Michigan

5. Maine
6. Florida

7. Wisconsin
8. Nevada
9. Georgia

10. Iowa
11. Ohio
12. Kansas

13. Rhode Island
14. Oregon
15. Oklahoma

Changes since Early September:
Alaska: Lean R -> Likely R
Arizona: Tilt R -> Likely R
Florida: Tilt D -> Lean D
Georgia: Tossup -> Tilt D
Illinois: Likely D -> Solid D
Maine: Tilt D -> Lean D
Maryland: Likely R -> Solid R
Michigan: Lean D -> Likely D
Minnesota: Lean D -> Likely D
Nevada: Lean D -> Tilt D
Oregon: Likely D -> Lean D
Pennsylvania: Likely D -> Solid D
Rhode Island: Tossup -> Lean D
Tennessee: Likely R -> Solid R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV is a tossup

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans have locked up TN.

Safe D (6): OR, HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (6): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO
Lean D (3): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (5): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA
Likely R (6): SC, SD, OK, MD, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN

[LabourJersey]

My no toss up map:

Democrats gain 9 governors' mansions, Republicans lose 8 net b/c of Alaska

[Thomas D]

My no toss up map:

Democrats gain 9 governors' mansions, Republicans lose 8 net b/c of Alaska

Pretty amazing Dems can pick up 9 seats without winning GA, OH, or OK

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AK moves back to Lean R with Walker out.

Safe D (6): OR, HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (6): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO
Lean D (3): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (6): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, SD, OK, MD, AZ
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN